Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

I doubt it.. my personal opinion though.

it could go down to retest 221 before heading up..

I wont be doing anything until NY closes.

Moody's Warns of Potential LTCM-Scale Fund Collapse (Update3)

By John Glover
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service warned that the global credit rout may cause a hedge fund collapse on the same scale as Long-Term Capital Management LP in 1998.
Hedge funds face potential losses on collateralized debt obligations, securities packaging bonds, loans and other assets, Chris Mahoney, vice chairman of Moody's, said on a conference call today. The funds are unable to agree on prices to sell riskier assets, causing the market to seize up, Mahoney said.
``A possible consequence of the repricing of risk assets would be the failure and disorderly liquidation of a hedge fund or other institution of sufficient size as to disrupt markets, as LTCM threatened to do in 1998,'' Mahoney said.
Moody's, criticized by policy makers and investors for failing to cut ratings on bonds backed by subprime mortgages until July when some securities had already lost more than 50 cents on the dollar, is drawing possible similarities between today's credit crunch and the collapse that triggered the last bailout organized by the Federal Reserve.
Moody's Corp. shares fell 6.5 percent today after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Europe's financial regulator called for a probe into ratings firms. The stock has dropped 34 percent this year as the credit rout threatened the most lucrative part of its business.
``I'm certain there is at least one major hedge fund out there at least as rightly concerned about a collapse in Moody's as the other way around,'' said Colin Negrych, a principal at Barclay Investments Inc., a broker-dealer in New York. ``To see Moody's make forward-looking negative statements about hedge funds, who may well be suffering in large part as a result of their reliance on Moody's now evidently worthless ratings, is to witness the height of chutzpah.''
Bear Stearns, Goldman
Credit markets started falling in June as two Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds collapsed because of bad subprime bets. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's most profitable securities firm and second-largest hedge fund manager, was forced to put $2 billion of its own money into one of its hedge funds and waive some fees after the fund lost 28 percent of its value this month.
Basis Capital Fund Management Ltd. yesterday told investors losses at one of its hedge funds may exceed 80 percent as the U.S. subprime mortgage rout prompted creditors to force the Sydney-based company to sell assets.
Forced Sales
Investors are unwilling to accept the prices offered for high-risk debt securities until they are forced to by their own lenders, a process that is likely to play out over the next three-to-six months, Mahoney said.
While the failure of a large hedge fund is a possibility, the risks are greater for smaller institutions, he said.
``There is always a risk in such a process that there could be one or more smaller institutions that could be hurt badly enough to require intervention,'' Mahoney said.
Financial markets will recover from the credit crunch and resume growth after a pause, he said.
``What we are seeing now appears to be largely a cyclical, not a secular, event,'' Mahoney said.
The demise of LTCM, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund run by John Meriwether, coincided with Russia's default on part of its $135 billion of external debt. LTCM was betting on convergence between various types of assets, taking on as much as $125 billion of borrowings to make the trades worthwhile, according to accounts of the debacle including ``When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management,'' by Roger Lowenstein.
To contact the reporters on this story: John Glover in London at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: August 16, 2007 13:43 EDT

great idea...i would pay....or fly to australia for him to teach me

Guys,i think we are going straight to 227 which is the TFT line at 1H!

See, with this much penetration of the bar "I ZOHEIR" (dunno if other people do it otherwise) do not feel comfortable about it , so my advise is to lock some profits or get out if you're satisfied , whether a rally down is gonna happen or not , nobody (or at least me) cannot confirm, your call now

Hala
what you see about markt this night , what you see abut entery points for short or long

the 4-hr 5sma is just over 227. It might retrace there, but not until after the US markets close.

As far as the stock market, we may have moved high enough to have the trading restrictions removed. If so, it could drop pretty fast again (no restrictions kick in this late in the market).

Thanks.

Dow post -200 and more.

Markam, what do u think will Bernake;s reaction in September be ?

i agreee... hmmm

I got this from my platform. maybe i'll shed some more light on wats going on here
"The rumor mill has been busy this afternoon, but now everyone appears to be trading on it - a recent [rumor] suggest a Fed ease this afternoon. Don"t shoot the messenger - we are just reporting what appears to be a baseless"

MO

The lift in the dow was supposed to be because an analyst said countrywide was in no danger of a near-term bankruptcy and because of a rumor that the feds were going to have a secret unscheduled meeting. I assume that would likely mean a rate cut.

Might be a good time to short the dollar.


edit. I just went short on USD/CHF and long on EUR/USD

Do you it will affect G/J? How it will be? Thanks? Looks 4H 5 sma still bear, but 15 min and 30 mins bull. Any suggestion?

Guys,

I missed the move again, went to a dentist appt came back all fireworks already pop http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif but that's ok, still make a few pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Hope you all have a good amount of pips collected.
Asian market will be very interesting again this time http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Down we go, again.

It's the last hour of trading, let the games begin...

In the way to test to low of the day

short at 224.65 , any ideas for TP?