Morning Briefing

26 Sep 25. 0833 IST or 0303 GMT or 2303 EST

Good Morning!

Stronger US GDP & Durable goods supported the strength in Dollar yesterday. The Dollar Index and Euro faces immediate resistance at support at 99 and 1.16 respectively. The EURINR while above 103.50 can remain ranged within 103.50-105.00. EURJPY on a break past 175 can head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPY has risen past 149 and if sustained can head towards 150-152 as well. USDCNY is headed towards the resistance coming at 7.14/15. Aussie and Pound have slipped below 0.655 and 1.34 and failing to see an immediate rise above these levels can make the outlook bearish in the near term. USDINR turned lower from 88.80 itself and has a scope to fall towards 88.50-88.25 in the coming sessions. Watch out for the US PCE & Personal Income data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. Crucial resistance is ahead. If they manage to breach it, then more rise can be seen. We will have to wait and watch. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields continue to hover around their resistance. A strong rise is needed for them to go higher. The 10Yr GoI is inching up and can go up towards the upper end of its range. For now, the sideways range is intact.

Most indices have dipped and and trades in the red today. The Dow saw some profit taking today as expected. Sustained fall below 46500 can take it to 45500 or lower. The Dax is down below 23650 and unless it moves up again, a fall to 23500-23000 cannot be negated. The Nifty has fallen sharply to close below 25000 and could have scope to tets 24800-24600 in the bsar term. Nikkei has also dipped below 45860 and could fall futher towards 45500 or lower if the dip sustains in the coming sessions. Shanghai may continue to trade between 3850-3750 for now.

Brent and WTI are moving higher as expected, with Brent eyeing $70-72 and WTI targeting $66-68. Gold is struggling below $3,800, where a break above is needed to keep the bullish momentum alive towards $3,900-4,000, else it risks a dip to $3,700-3,600. Silver surged to $45.50 but faces resistance near current levels, with chances of a pullback to $44.50-44.00 unless it breaks above for a run towards $46-47. Copper tested $4.9395 before heavy selling dragged it back to $4.7580, with support at $4.70 that could trigger a rebound. Natural Gas is capped by resistance, and unless it breaks higher towards $3.30-3.40, a fall to $3.00-2.90 looks likely.

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29 Sep 25. 0823 IST or 0253 GMT or 2253 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can decline further within its 99-97/96 range. While Euro & EURINR have scope to head towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY on a break past 175 can head towards 176 and above in the coming sessions. USDJPY started coming off from 150 itself and if the fall extends further, a test to 148 or lower levels look likely to happen. USDCNY can trade within 7.14/15-7.10 region for some time. Aussie and Pound have recovered well and a breach past 0.66 and 1.35 can open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00-89.10, while above 88.50/25.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The near-term picture is positive. Support is there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the yields have potential to break their immediate resistance and rise going forward. The German yields have come down slightly. But support can limit the downside and take the yields higher eventually. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the narrow range. A break above the range resistance can take it further higher and will bring in the wider trading range into the picture.

The Dow is headed towards resistance at 46500 while the Dax can rise to 23850-24000 while above 23600/650.The Nifty can hold above support at 24600 and bounce back towards 24800-25000 soon. Nikkei could fall futher towards 45500 or lower if the dip sustains in the coming sessions below resistance at 46000. Shanghai may continue to fall towards the lower end of the range of 3850-3750.

Brent and WTI have turned lower after testing highs, with Brent vulnerable to $69-68 while WTI is likely to stay within the $66-62 range. Gold is steady near $3,800 but needs a break above $3,850 to head towards $3,900-4,000, else it may dip to $3,700. Silver looks bullish towards $47.50-48.00. Copper has bounced back from its support and can rise towards $4.85-4.90. Natural Gas remains weak and can fall towards $3.10-3.00.

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30 Sep 25. 0803 IST or 0233 GMT or 2233 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index continues to hold the 99-97/96 range for now. The Euro & EURINR looks bullish towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY needs to sustain above 174 to head towards 176, else it can be vulnerable to test 173 initially. USDJPY can test 148 or slightly lower levels before attempting to rise back again. USDCNY can trade within 7.14-7.10 region for some time. Aussie and Pound have recovered well and a breach past 0.66 and 1.35 can open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00-89.10, while above 88.50. US Case Schiller & US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down. Support is coming up which has to hold in order to keep alive the chances of the rise that we have been expecting. The German Yields have declined sharply. Failure to rise back immediately from here will negate the rise that we had expected. It will then drag the yields lower. The 10Yr GoI has broken its narrow range on the upside. A follow-through rise from here can take it further higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting tomorrow will need a close watch.

The Dow and Dax have immediate resistances near 46500 and 24000 which if hold can produce a decline back towards 45500 and 23500-23000 respectively. Only a break past these resistances of seen can trigger a medium term rise. Watch price action near the mentioned resistances. The Nifty dipped to foose lower yesterday but while above 24600/400, it can eventually rise to 25000 and higher. Nikkei continues to fall as expected and could test 44000-43000 unless any immediate rebound is seen. Shanghai has risen well from 3809 and may hold trade within 3800-3900 for the near term.

Crude prices have declined as expected, with Brent falling towards $66 on the back of OPEC+ production outlook and WTI slipping towards $62 while staying within their broader ranges. Precious metals remain firm, with Gold pushing above $3,850 and aiming for $3,900-3,950, and Silver on track to target $47.50-48.00. Copper has surged past $4.90, and a sustained break could open the door to $5.00-5.20, though a dip back towards $4.85-4.75 is also possible. Natural gas, contrary to expectations, broke above $3.20 and may extend its rise towards $3.35-3.40 in the near term.

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01 Oct 25. 0822 IST or 0252 GMT or 2252 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is likely to decline further within its 99-97/96 range. The Euro & EURINR can head towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY can either test 173 or 172 before rebounding later. USDJPY has immediate support coming around 147.00-146.50 which can be tested if the fall extends further. USDCNY can trade within 7.14-7.10 region for some time. Aussie has risen past 0.66 and if sustained, can test 0.670-0.675 before getting peaked out. While Pound needs to breach 1.35 to open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00 before halting. RBI MPC meeting, US ADP Employment & US Manufacturing ISM & IN Manufacturing PMI data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well after testing their support. That keeps alive the chances of the rise that we have been expecting. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have to get a strong bounce from here in order to avoid more fall. Wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI continues to more up. There is room to move further higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

Equities are mixed amidst the looming concerns of a US government shutdown. The Dow and Dax have immediate resistances near 46500 and 24000 which if held can produce a decline back towards 45500 and 23500-23000 respectively. The Nifty has dipped lower and needs to hold above 24600 to prevent further decline. To 24400/200. Watch the RBI monetary policy meeting today where the market expects rates to be kept unchanged. The Nikkei continues to fall as expected and could test 44000-43000 soon. Shanghai is trading in the green today and could trade within 3800-3900 for the near term. A break above 3900, if seen can be bullish towards 4000.

Brent and WTI have both tested their immediate supports at $66 and $62 respectively, and while these levels hold, they are likely to trade within $66-71 and $62-66 ranges for some time, though a break below could extend losses further. Gold has hit a fresh all-time high at $3,899.20 and looks set to rise towards $3,950-4,000, while Silver, despite a slight dip, remains bullish towards $47.50-48.00. Copper has declined to $4.82 and could slip a bit more towards $4.80-4.75 before bouncing past $4.90, whereas Natural Gas continues to edge higher with room to test $3.35-3.40 in the near term.

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03 Oct 25. 0827 IST or 0257 GMT or 2257 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index faces resistance at 98.30 and 99 region, below which the range of 99-97/96 is likely to persist for some time. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while above 1.17, while EURINR can consolidate between 103.50-105.00 region. EURJPY needs to sustain above current levels to extend the rise to 174/75 as well. Similarly, on a breach past 148 USDJPY can head towards 150 and higher levels in the near term. USDCNY is closed for the week. Aussie has a scope to test 0.670-0.675 before getting peaked out, while Pound needs to breach 1.35 to open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR remained closed yesterday. US NFP, US Unemployment & US Avg Hrly data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down and are at their support. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them further lower. The US jobs data will not be released today following the government shutdown. The German Yields remain lower and are at their support. They look vulnerable to break the support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. They can dip further to test its immediate support. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is managing to bounce back or not.

The Dow has broken above immediate resistance at 46500 and if sustained, could head towards 47000 or higher. The Dax has also moved up well and can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty has risen, holding above 24600 and can test 25000 in the next few days. The Nikkei has risen sharply and could now be headed towards 46000-47000. Shanghai is likely to trade within 3800-3900 for the near term. A break above 3900, if seen can be bullish towards 4000.

Crude prices have broken below key supports, with Brent slipping to $64 and likely heading towards $63-62, while WTI fell to $60.40 and could extend losses towards $59-58. Gold remains firm after hitting $3,923.30 and is poised to rise towards $3,950-4,000, whereas Silver reversed sharply from $48 to $45.71 and may dip to $45 before resuming its uptrend towards $47.50-48.50. Copper has gained strength above $4.90 and now targets $5.00-5.20, while Natural Gas has surged past expectations to $3.5850 and could extend higher towards $3.65-3.80.

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06 Oct 25. 0823 IST or 0253 GMT or 2253 EST

Good Morning!

Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan's next Prime Minister. Her victory signals a likely continuation of Japan's expansionary fiscal and ultra-loose monetary policies. The Dollar Index rose slightly but remains within the 96-99 range for now. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while staying above 1.17, and EURINR may consolidate between 103.50-105.00. EURJPY tested 175 as expected, now facing resistance at 176. USDJPY advanced nearly 1.6% on election results; a break above 150 could push it to 152 or higher, otherwise consolidation between 146-150 is likely. USDCNY is closed for the week. The Aussie could test 0.670-0.675 before topping out, while the Pound needs to breach 1.35 for further gains soon. USDINR can test 89.00-89.25 while trading above 88.50.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well in the early Asian session today. While this sustains, a further rise is possible. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI dipped to test its support as expected. While the support holds, the yield can rise back again in the coming days.

The Dow could head towards 47000 or higher while above support at 46500. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty can test 25000 and if breaks higher can head towards 25500. The overall broad trade range of 24600-25500 can hold for the next couple of weeks. The Nikkei has risen sharply after Sanae Takaichi became the first female prime minister of the nation. The index can rise further to 48000. Shanghai is closed till Wednesday, 8-Oct-25.

Crude prices have bounced back slightly but remain vulnerable to further downside as long as they stay below $67 (Brent) and $63 (WTI) respectively, with chances of a fall towards $62-60 for Brent and $58-56 for WTI. Gold continues to move higher as expected, heading towards $3,950-4,000, while Silver faces resistance near $48.35/50 and may dip to $47.00-46.50 before rising towards $49.00-49.50. Copper stays firm with scope to test $5.15-5.20, whereas Natural gas has slipped below $3.40 and could fall further to $3.20-3.00 before rebounding.

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07 Oct 25. 0800 IST or 0230 GMT or 2230 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 99. While the resistance holds, a range of 99-96 can continue to hold. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while staying above 1.16, and EURINR continues to consolidate between 103.50-105.00. EURJPY is oscillating near the resistance at 176. Need to see whether it extends the rise or not. USDJPY has risen past 150 and if sustained, can head towards 152-154. USDCNY is closed today. The Aussie could test 0.670-0.675 before topping out, while the Pound is stuck within 1.34-1.35 region. USDINR can test 89.00-89.10 before halting.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias remains positive to see more rise in the coming days. The German Yields have bounced back but may not sustain. Some more fall is likely to be seen first before a sustained rise happens. The 10Yr GoI is bouncing back from its support. While this sustains, the yield can rise further in the coming days.

The Dow could head towards 47000-48000 while above 46500. We may expect a rejection from either 47000 or 48000, both of which are resistances on the near- and long-term charts. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty rose above 25000, but the upper resistances at 25200 and 25400/500 remain intact, from where a rejection is possible. The Nikkei has surged above the resistance at 48000 and trades well above at a record high. The sky is the limit for Nikkei as there is no well-formed resistance above current levels on the near to medium term charts. Shanghai is closed.

Crude prices remain weak as both Brent and WTI struggle below key resistances at $67 and $63, keeping the risk of a break lower towards $62-60 and $58-56 intact. Gold continues to hover near its all-time high, and a clear move above $4,000 is needed to confirm further upside towards $4,100-4,200, while failure to break could lead to a correction towards $3,800-3,700. Silver is likely to dip towards $47.00-46.50 before rebounding to $49-50, and Copper looks steady above $5.00 with scope to rise towards $5.15-5.20. Natural Gas, however, remains under pressure and could extend its fall towards $3.20-3.00 if it stays below $3.50.

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08 Oct 25. 0820 IST or 0250 GMT or 2250 EST

Good Morning!

While the Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 99, Euro is nearing the support at 1.16. Watch price action closely around the current levels to see where both might be headed. EURINR is trading near the lower end of its 105-103 range. EURJPY has risen above 176 and if sustained, can test 178-180 before getting peaked out. Similarly, USDJPY can also head towards 152-154 before halting. USDCNY is closed today. The Aussie has supports coming at 0.655-0.650, above which the targets of 0.670-0.675 are kept open. The Pound has inched lower and can trade within 1.33-1.35 region for some time. USDINR appears to be stuck within 88.60-88.80 region.

The US Treasury yields are struggling to rise and have come down. Failure to sustain above their immediate support can drag them lower and negate the rise that we have been expecting. The German yields remain stable. We retain our view of seeing some more fall from here first and then a rise. The 10Yr GoI is managing to hold above its support and keeps the door open to rise from here.

The Dow has dipped below 49000 itself and could dip further towards 46500-46000. Note 47000 and 48000 are crucial resistances on the upside. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon, a break above which will pave way for 25000. The Nifty rose to 25220.90 before closing lower. A rise above 25200-25250 is needed to rise towards upper resistance at 25400/500. Else, a dip to 25000 looks possible. The Nikkei is holding above 47800 and looks elevated for the near term, with chances of a gradual rise towards 50000. Shanghai is closed.

Brent and WTI remain weak below $67 and $63 respectively, with risks of further decline towards $62-60 and $58-56. Gold stays bullish above $4000 targeting $4100-4200. Silver can rise towards $48.50-49.00 while $47 holds. Copper may extend up to $5.15-5.20 while Natural Gas could dip to $3.30-3.20 unless it breaks above $3.5240 to head towards $3.60-3.70.

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09 Oct 25. 0820 IST or 0250 GMT or 2250 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index needs to see a confirmed break past 99 to head towards 100-101 in the near term. While below 1.17, Euro can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.15-1.14. EURINR is trading near the lower end of its 105-103 range. If the ongoing rise sustains, EURJPY can target 178-180, and USDJPY can target 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY for now can consolidate between 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie and Pound are expected to trade within 0.655-0.665 & 1.33-1.35 region respectively before a breakout occurs. USDINR continues to remain stuck within 88.60-88.80 region.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further and are at their key support. Failure to rise back from here will negate the rise that we had expected. It will then drag the yields lower. The German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They can dip further to test their support and then rise back again to keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around its support. It has to get a strong bounce from here to go up and avoid falling more. We will have to wait and watch.

The Dow looks stable and can fall to 46600-46500 before bouncing from there. The Dax has risen well and upon sustained rise past 24600, a test of 25000 looks possible. The Nifty has been stable. If it breaks below 25000, it can get dragged back into the 24800-24600 zone. Watch price action near 25000. The Nikkei seems to be gradually rising towards 50000. Shanghai has opened today after a week long holiday and trades in the green. A rise past 3900 can take it to 4000.

Brent and WTI have both reversed lower after testing resistance near $67 and $63 respectively, keeping the short-term outlook bearish towards $64 and $60, with potential for deeper declines if these supports break. Gold and Silver continue to show strong bullish momentum, with Gold holding firm above $4000 and likely to rise towards $4100-4200, while Silver, after hitting a record high of $49.20, could extend gains to $49.50-50.00 if it stays above $48. Copper remains firm and can move towards $5.15-5.20, whereas Natural Gas has weakened sharply and may fall further towards $3.25-3.20 as long as it stays below $3.5.

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10 Oct 25. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has indeed risen past 99 and if sustained, can head towards 100-101 in the near term. While Euro & EURINR can fall towards 1.15-1.14 & 102.50-102.00 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY have declined a bit, still the targets of 180 and 154-155 are kept open for now. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie and Pound need to see an immediate rise past 0.66 and 1.34, else both the pairs can be vulnerable to test 0.65 and 1.32/31 respectively. USDINR continues to remain stuck within 88.60-88.85 region.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support is holding well. Broadly, it looks like the yields are stuck in a sideways range for now. We may have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move. The German yields have inched up. But still there is room on the downside to test their support before bullish reversal happens. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and can rise in the coming days.

The Dow, Dax and the Nifty are all headed towards their respective resistances at 47000, 25000 and 25500 which if held can take the indices down in the coming days. Watch price action near the mentioned resistance levels. Shanghai also has similar resistance at 4000 and can see trade within 3800-4000 for the near term. On the other hand, The Nikkei, having broken the crucial resistance at 48000, seems to be gradually rising towards 50000 and looks bullish for now.

Brent and WTI continue to fall towards $64 and $60, with deeper losses possible if supports break. Gold stays above key support at $3950-3900, keeping the upside view intact, while Silver may test $46 before rebounding. Copper remains rangebound and needs a clear break above $5.25 or below $5.00 for direction. Natural Gas continues to weaken and could slip further towards $3.20-3.15 in the near term.

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13 Oct 25. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2306 EST

Good Morning!

On Friday President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and export controls on critical software, in response to China’s rare earth export restrictions. The Dollar Index has inched lower but the targets of 100-101 are kept open while it trades above 98.50. Euro & EURINR have upside capped at 1.17 and 104.00-104.50 and can fall towards 1.15-1.14 & 102.50-102.00 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 178-180 and 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie and Pound faces immediate resistance at 0.66 and 1.34 respectively. USDINR can target 89.00-89.25 in the near term while it stays above 88.50.

The US Treasury yields declined sharply on Friday. The US announcing an additional 100% tariff on China dragged the yields lower. The outlook is negative. The yields have room to fall more from here. The German Yields have also come down. The yields have support which is likely to hold and trigger a bounce eventually going forward. The 10Yr GoI is inching up. The support is holding well, and the yield can rise more from here.

The Dow has declined. But we may expect a rebound especially after Trump announced additional 100% tariffs on China. The Dax has fallen and can test 24000-23600 before attempting to rebound back towards 24500-25000. Nifty has risen well above 25280 but needs to sustain to test resistance at 25500 from where a rejection is possible. Shanghai also has similar resistance at 4000 and can see trade within 3800-4000 for the near term. The Nikkei, is headed towards the support region of 48000-47500 from where a bounce can be expected.

Crude prices have extended their declines last week amid renewed US-China trade tensions, though the prices could see short-term corrective bounces towards $64-65 (Brent) and $61-62 (WTI) respectively before resuming their broader downtrend. Gold and Silver have rebounded strongly from recent lows, with Gold likely heading towards $4100-4200 and Silver towards $49.50-50.50. Copper has recovered above $5.00 after testing $4.82, suggesting limited downside with potential to rise towards $5.15-5.20, while Natural Gas remains weak and could dip further towards $3.10-3.00.

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15 Oct 25. 0828 IST or 0258 GMT or 2258 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can still rise towards 100-101 while above 98.80-98.50. EURUSD & EURINR faces immediate resistance at 1.165 & 103.50. Failing to see a rise past these levels can drag both the pairs toward 1.15/14 & 102.50 or lower respectively. EURJPY has support coming at 174. While it holds the targets of 178-180 are kept open. Similarly, as long as Dollar-Yen remains above 150, it can attempt to rise back towards 153-154. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660. The Pound remains weak below 1.34, with risks of falling to 1.32 or lower. USDINR can rise towards 89.00-89.25 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have dipped. That keeps intact our view of seeing more fall. Resistance can cap the upside in case of any bounce. The German yields are at their support. We expect them to bounce back from here and rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI has dipped and is just above a key support. Failure to bounce back from here will negate the rise that we have been looking for. That in turn can take the yields lower.

Equities are looking mixed. The Dow has moved well and can test 46500-47000 while the Dax can head towards 25000 while above 24000. Nifty has fallen sharply and if it fails to hold above 25060, it can plunge back to 24800-24600 region. Nikkei could test 48000-48500 if the current rise sustains. Shanghai has declined sharply from 3900+ levels. Failure to see an immediate rebound can take it down to 3800-3750.

Crude prices have reversed sharply lower, with Brent likely to fall further towards $61-60 while below $64/65, and WTI vulnerable to a drop towards $57-56 while below $60/61. Gold remains strong after hitting a new all-time high near $4190, with potential to rise towards $4250-4300 if it breaks above $4200. Silver also looks bullish despite a brief pullback, targeting $52-53 before any correction. Copper continues to trade weak and may stay range-bound between $4.9-5.2 for now. Natural Gas is approaching key support near $2.9, from where a bounce towards $3.1-3.2 is possible unless it breaks lower towards $2.8/2.7.

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16 Oct 25. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is headed to the support coming at 98. The target of 100-101 are kept alive while the Index trades above 98. EURUSD is headed towards the resistance coming at 1.17 which can be tested soon. EURINR has a scope to bounce back towards 102.50-103.00 before eventually coming down. EURJPY can target 178 or even 180 while it trades above 175-174. USDJPY can soon test the support coming at 150 before attempting to bounce back again. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660. The Pound has risen past 1.34 and if sustained, can rise towards 1.35-1.36 levels. USDINR fell sharply to 87.91 yesterday and is trading below 87.75 in the offshore NDF market. If the decline continues, it may test the 87.50-87.25 levels as well.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. While they sustain below their resistance, more fall is possible. The German Yields have declined below their support. That negates our view of seeing a bounce back from the support. The view now turns negative, and the yields can fall further. The 10Yr GoI has broken its support. It can fall further in the coming days.

The Dow looks stable but can test 46500-47000 while the Dax can head towards 25000 while above 24000. Nifty has risen yesterday and can test 25500. Thereafter a rise past 25500 or a decline will pave way for next course of direction. Nikkei could test 49000 if the current rise sustains. Shanghai trades around 3900. A immediate trade range of 3750-4000 looks likely.

Crude prices remain weak, with Brent targeting $61-60 and WTI likely falling towards $57-56. Gold has broken past $4200 to hit a new all-time high near $4236, opening room for a further rise to $4300-4350. Silver remains firm with potential to test $53.00-53.50. Copper is consolidating within $4.9-5.2, awaiting a breakout. Natural gas has fallen to $2.9640 and may rebound towards $3.1-3.2 if $2.9 holds; otherwise, it can drop to $2.8/2.7.

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17 Oct 25. 0822 IST or 0252 GMT or 2252 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index could fall toward 97–96 if it fails to hold 98 and rise past 99. EURUSD has risen past 1.17 and if sustained, can test 1.18 or even 1.19 as well. Only a break below 1.16 can bring back the lower targets of 1.15/14 into picture. EURINR is headed towards the resistance coming between 103.00-103.50 region. EURJPY can target 178 or even 180 while it trades above 175-174. USDJPY needs to see a bounce from 150, else it can get dragged towards 148 as well. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie is trading near the lower end of its 0.660-0.645. The Pound can rise towards 1.35-1.36 levels, while it sustains above 1.34. USDINR is trading at 88 on the NDF. While above 87.70, a further rise to 88.25 and above looks possible.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. The fall is happening in line with our expectations. The yields can fall more from here. The German yields remain lower and stable. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower. The 10Yr GoI has bounced back. But a strong follow-through rise is needed from here to go further higher and avoid a fall back.

The Dow fell sharply below 46000 amid concerns over bad loans at regional banks and could weaken further towards 45000 if it fails to recover. DAX remains stable above 24000, likely to trade within 23600-24500 in the near term. Nifty has broken above the crucial 25500 level, and sustained trade above it could signal a fresh bullish breakout. Nikkei looks positive and may move towards 49000 while holding above 48000. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound between 4000-3800/3750, with a break above 4000 needed to confirm medium-term bullishness.

Crude prices fallen sharply after the EIA report showed an unexpected rise in US crude inventories and record-high production. Brent could decline further towards $60, while WTI may extend its fall towards $56 in the near term. Gold remains bullish after testing a new high near $4347, with potential to rise towards $4400 or even $4500-4600 if momentum continues. Silver faces strong resistance near $53.77 and could see a sharp reversal towards $50-48 if it holds. Copper remains range-bound between $4.9-5.2, while Natural Gas is holding support at $2.9 and could rebound towards $3.0-3.1 unless it breaks lower towards $2.8-2.7.

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23 Oct 25. 0833 IST or 0303 GMT or 2303 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro are headed toward the crucial levels coming at 99.50 and 1.1550 respectively. On a break below 101.50 EURINR can get dragged towards 101-100. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 178-180 & 153-154 in the near term. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.14. The Aussie is holding the 0.655-0.645 range quite well for now. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR remained closed yesterday.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. There is room to fall more to test their key supports. Thereafter the yields can rise back again. The German yields are coming down again failing to sustain the bounce seen earlier in the week. They can fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range. The immediate outlook is unclear. We will have to wait for the range breakout.

The Dow fell sharply yesterday and can test 46000 before rising again towards 47000. Dax has also dipped and needs to sustain above 24000-24500 to move up towards 2500-25200. Else the index can fall to 23500-23000. Nifty has dipped after a decent rise in the past few sessions. Some chances of a rise to 26000 is there but we remain cautious because a decline if seen from here can turn bearish towards 25500 or lower. Nikkei can test 48000-47000 while below 50000. Thereafter a bounce from 470000 can take it back towards 50000. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound between 4000-3800.

Brent rebounded from $60.07 but faces resistance at $64, with scope to dip towards $62-60 unless it breaks higher. WTI shows similar resistance at $60, which if breached could rise towards $62-64. Gold fell sharply from $4400 to $4021 but may rebound towards $4150-4200 while above $4000. Silver plunged from $53.77 to $46.82 and could bounce towards $48-49 while holding above $46.50. Copper remains range-bound between $4.9-5.2. Natural Gas faces resistance near $3.6, with support at $3.2-3.0 unless a breakout lifts it towards $3.8-4.2.

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24 Oct 25. 0817 IST or 0247 GMT or 2247 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index needs to breach 99.50 to head towards 100-101 levels. Else, the pullback towards 98-97 looks likely. Euro is currently holding well the support near 1.1570-1.1550 region. Whether the pair will trade within 1.1550-1.1700 region or will it extend the fall to 1.15/14 region will have to be seen. On a break below 101.50 EURINR can get dragged towards 101-100. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 178-180 & 153-154 in the near term. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.14. The Aussie continues to stay within 0.655-0.645 range for now. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR is trading near 87.70 on the NDF and if the spot opens below 87.75 in the onshore then USDINR can get dragged towards 87.50 or even 87.00 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have bounced well. Some more rise is possible before the yields resume the fall. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall more to test their support. The 10Yr GoI has risen well but well within its range. A range breakout is needed to get clarity on the next direction of move.

The Dow, Dax and other Asia-Pac indices have risen after a long awaited announcement of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping next Thursday in Asia. The Dow is headed towards 47000 while the Dax can rise towards 24500-25000. Nifty is inching higher towards 26000. Thereafter whether the index would face rejection or break higher will have to be seen. Nikkei can test 50000. Thereafter a break past 50000, if seen can open up doors for 52000. Shanghai is headed towards 4000, a break past which if seen can take it towards 4200 eventually.

Crude prices surged after new US-EU sanctions on Russian energy, with Brent rising to $66.36 and WTI to $62.20, both eyeing further gains towards $68 and $64 respectively. Gold and Silver rebounded strongly, targeting $4200-4250 and $49-50 as long as supports at $4000 and $46.50 hold. Copper touched $5.1185, facing resistance near $5.15, with potential for a breakout towards $5.25-5.30. Natural Gas fell to $3.29 after a higher storage build, with chances of extending the decline to $3.20-3.00.

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27 Oct 25. 0825 IST or 0255 GMT or 2255 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index needs to rebound from 98.60 toward 99.50 and above; otherwise, the fall could extend to 98.00–97.00. Euro is stuck within 1.1550-1.1650 region. EURINR can move towards 101.50-101.30 while it trades below 102.40. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 179 & 154 in the near term. USDCNY has slipped below 7.12, and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie is trading near the upper end of its 0.645-0.655 range. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR is trading near 87.78 on the NDF. The pair can limit the upside to 88.25 and is anticipated to fall towards 87.50-87.35 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. The US CPI coming in lower than market expectation has increased the bets for a rate cut from the Fed this week. But that did not have any major impact on the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 3.02% (YoY) in September. This is higher than the previous reading of 2.94%, but lower than the market expectation of 3.1% and our Kshitij expectation of 3.16%. The Yields have room to rise in the near term before reversing lower again. The German Yields have risen well. A further rise from here will reduce the chances of the fall that we have been expecting and can take the yields higher instead. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the bullish range breakout on Friday. That keeps the range intact. A sustained breakout is needed to take the yield higher.

The Dow and Dax are nearing short term resistances near 47500/600 and 25000/25200 respectively which if hold can produce a dip in the next few sessions. However, an upside break if seen can bring in fresh upmove. Nifty is seeing profit taking on the last 2 sessions and unless an immediate bounce is seen today, the index can be further dragged to 25600/500. Nikkei has risen back well. While the uptrend remains intact, the index can test 52000 soon. Shanghai is headed towards crucial resistance at 4000, a break past which if seen can take it towards 4200 eventually.

Crude prices are nearing key resistances at $68 (Brent) and $63 (WTI), respectively, from where short-term pullbacks to $65-64 and $60-59 are possible. Gold remains steady above $4000, likely consolidating between $4000-4200, while Silver holds firm within $47-50. Copper continues its bullish momentum, aiming for $5.30-5.35 after breaking higher, whereas Natural Gas stays weak below $3.50 with scope to fall further towards $3.00.


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28 Oct 25. 0826 IST or 0256 GMT or 2256 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is trading near 98.60 and failing to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall to 98-97 as well. Euro & EURINR have risen past 1.1650 & 102.40 but face another resistance at 1.17 & 103 respectively. Need to see whether the resistance hold or extend the rise in both the pairs. EURJPY & USDJPY have slightly inched lower but the targets of 179 & 154 are kept alive for now. USDCNY is coming off and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie has risen past 0.655 and if sustained, can extend the gains towards 0.660-0.665 as well. The Pound has bounced a bit but a break past 1.34 will be needed to extend the rise towards 1.35 as well. USDINR is trading near 88.14 on the NDF, and unless an immediate break below 88 occurs, a sustained move above 88.30 if seen could make it vulnerable to testing 88.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall. Any rise will be capped by the near-term resistances. The German yields have dipped. Failure to rise back immediately can keep alive the chances of the fall that we have been expecting towards their support. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is hovering near the upper end of its range. Need to see if it is breaking out of the range to move higher.

The Dow and Dax have moved up today. The Dow can rise towards 47600-48000 while the Dax can face rejection from 25000-25200 region. Nifty has risen yesterday and needs a decisive break past 26000 to head towards 27000. Nikkei can test 52000 while above 50000. Shanghai is trading near the crucial resistance at 4000, a sustained break past which is needed to rally towards 4200 eventually.

Crude prices have fallen as expected amid concerns of a global crude surplus, heading towards $65-64 (Brent) and $60-59 (WTI) respectively. Gold plunged to $3985.90 but holds above $4000, keeping chances of a rise to $4100-4200 alive. Silver broke below $47 and looks weaker towards $45-44. Copper stays firm above $5.10 with scope to rise to $5.30-5.35, while Natural Gas surged on cooler US weather forecasts but faces resistance near $4.00, with possible swings between $4.40-$3.60.

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29 Oct 25. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2302 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index & Euro can trade within 99.50-98.50 & 1.1550-1.1700 region respectively for now. EURINR needs to rise past 103 to head towards 104, else it can trade within 102-103 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have inched lower and a break below 176 & 151 if seen can make the pairs vulnerable to extend the fall towards 170 and 150–148 respectively in the medium term. USDCNY is coming off and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie can extend the gains towards 0.665-0.670 as long as it stays above 0.655. The Pound needs to see an immediate rise past 1.3275, else any break below 1.325 can open the doors for 1.315 as well. USDINR can trade within 88.50-88.00 region for sometime. Watch out for the FOMC scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields remain stable ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting tonight. There is room to fall from here in the near-term before a reversal happens. A 25-bps rate cut is broadly priced in the market already. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields sustain higher but stable. A strong rise is needed from here immediately to avoid a fall. The 10Yr GoI continues to hover near the upper end of the range. It seems like the yield is lacking strength. So, a dip within the range looks more likely.

The Dow has risen well ahead of the FED policy meeting where markets expect another rate cut by 25bps. Dax has dipped yesterday but could rise back to face rejection from resistance at 25000-25200. Asia-Pac is mixed. Nifty declined yesterday as profit taking seems to be in place. However, eventual rise above 26000 can take it towards 27000. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 while Shanghai is trading just at the crucial resistance at 4000, a sustained break past which is needed to rally towards 4200 eventually.

Crude prices extended their fall weighed down by persistent concerns over a global oil surplus and continue to decline in the near term. Gold broke below $4000 and tumbled to $3901.30, keeping the short-term view bearish towards $3850-3800. Silver also weakened, staying vulnerable below $48 with potential declines towards $45-44. Copper remained range-bound between $5.20-5.10, awaiting a breakout for direction, while Natural Gas continued to slide, heading towards $3.70-3.60 in the near term.

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30 Oct 25. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2306 EST

Good Morning!

The FED cut the rate but 25 bps thereby bringing the FFR at 4%. Dollar Index, Euro & EURINR continues to trade within 99.50-98.50, 1.1550-1.1700 & 102-103 region respectively for now. EURJPY & USDJPY have bounced a bit and if sustained above current levels, can attempt to test our earlier mentioned targets of 178-179 & 153.50-154.00. Watch out for the BOJ policy meeting scheduled today wherein the market expects the central bank to keep the rate unchanged at 0.50%. USDCNY has moved below 7.10 and can now head towards 7.075 in the near term. The Aussie can extend the gains towards 0.665-0.670 as long as it stays above 0.655. The Pound has recovered well from the low of 1.3140 and if sustained, can test 1.33 in the near term. USDINR can trade within 88.00-88.50 region for sometime.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the Fed meeting outcome. A 25-bps rate cut came in from the Fed as expected. However, Powell sounding a little doubtful about delivering another 25-bps rate cut in December has aided the yields to rise. A strong follow-through rise breaking above the immediate resistance can take the yields much higher going forward. It will also negate the last leg of fall that we had expected. The German Yields remain stable. They have to rise from here immediately in order to avoid a fall. The 10Yr GoI remains stable in a narrow range.

The FED cut rates by 25bps as expected but has signalled no more rate cuts this year. Dow have up its initial gains and fell sharply. Unless an immediate rebound is seen, it can fall further to 46500. Dax, Nikkei and Shanghai have also dipped but could limit its downside to 24000, 50000 and 3900. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged today. Nifty has moved up. View is bullish to 26500 while above 25750.

Crude prices have seen a slight recovery yesterday but can remain weak and decline towards $63 (Brent) and $59 (WTI) respectively in the near term. Gold tested a high of $4046.20 and Silver rose to $48.51, but both remain vulnerable to declines towards $3850-3800 and $45-44 respectively. Copper is showing strength, attempting to break higher above $5.20/25 with potential to reach $5.30-5.40. Natural Gas continues to drift lower and may extend its fall towards $3.70-3.60.

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