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  • #17,521
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:01pm Oct 9, 2025 1:01pm
Quoting Luxyus
{quote} {quote} that was for today, the chart is the main plan
very well done mate! More to cone or time to take a break before next leg?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,522
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:02pm Oct 9, 2025 1:02pm
Quoting johncen
not good at counting waves but just thinking out loud here….. we have completed 5 waves (if we have seen the top) with extended wave 3. then we should see abc correction next which may target somewhere between 1.14 in the next couple of weeks/months. A wave may ends at 1557 or around 1.16. if all goes as per plan we should see by the end of the month maybe? 1.1720-30 must give up to validate this thinking (rising trendline from Fed breaks if this is the case) and we cannot go back above 1857. {image}
bringing back this post here…. Seems happening
wave a should be completed by now so we may see a retracement for wave b.
it will take time to develop
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,523
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:07pm Oct 9, 2025 1:07pm
Quoting fxchasing
In other words, USD bulls are only getting started
You forgot about the mess in France - this reminds me of the beginnings of the Greece crisis of 2015 - sub France instead of Greece.

Pressure on EU
  • #17,524
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:40pm Oct 9, 2025 1:40pm
Support test
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  • #17,525
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:41pm Oct 9, 2025 1:41pm
Quoting fx6996
{quote} You forgot about the mess in France - this reminds me of the beginnings of the Greece crisis of 2015 - sub France instead of Greece. Pressure on EU
Ah yes, I forgot about the mess in France, okay, that makes a lot more sense now.
  • #17,526
  • Oct 9, 2025 1:44pm Oct 9, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} Ah yes, I forgot about the mess in France, okay, that makes a lot more sense now.
funny how all that aligns with commercials positioning hey
OI Trader
  • #17,527
  • Oct 9, 2025 2:38pm Oct 9, 2025 2:38pm
1.1554 possible pullback 4 a long if bellow 1.156 now
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  • #17,528
  • Oct 9, 2025 2:45pm Oct 9, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting DonEtienne28
{quote} cool! where was the retest?
You said that there will be no retest
Unfortunately the pattern breakout was not retested. Is more and more common for the classic patterns nowdays. For entry I used a confluence this morning rejected the trend line and breaking kijun-sen+ daily pivot.
  • #17,529
  • Oct 9, 2025 2:59pm Oct 9, 2025 2:59pm
Quoting Mihisti
{quote} You said that there will be no retest Unfortunately the pattern breakout was not retested. Is more and more common for the classic patterns nowdays. For entry I used a confluence this morning rejected the trend line and breaking kijun-sen+ daily pivot.
yes, you're right - I was intraday, that's why I referred to the London Accumulation sweep.

But great your strategy worked out overall. Confidence and experience points in your bank account
  • #17,530
  • Oct 9, 2025 3:12pm Oct 9, 2025 3:12pm
Resistance test
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  • #17,531
  • Oct 9, 2025 8:04pm Oct 9, 2025 8:04pm
If above 1.15618 after the pullback
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  • #17,532
  • Oct 9, 2025 8:44pm Oct 9, 2025 8:44pm
Very steep down trend here.

not sure if we are going further down or will get a retracement?

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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,533
  • Oct 9, 2025 9:27pm Oct 9, 2025 9:27pm
Quoting fex.
{quote} {image}
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newbie
  • #17,534
  • Oct 9, 2025 10:45pm Oct 9, 2025 10:45pm
The EURUSD dropped to 1.1542 in a risk-off environment favoring the dollar and is now trading below the broken support levels at 1.1574 and 1.1598-1.1600. If this small correction rises above 1.1627, that level could be reached, but I expect 1.1648 to hold for another leg down. In a different case where 1.1542 breaks, then sellers' momentum should target 1.1527/00 with the risk, if there is no significant bounce from there, of a drop at 1.1461.

Daily volatility (range) 52 pips


Have a great day!

4H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,535
  • Oct 9, 2025 10:50pm Oct 9, 2025 10:50pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EURUSD dropped to 1.1542 in a risk-off environment favoring the dollar and is now trading below the broken support levels at 1.1574 and 1.1598-1.1600. If this small correction rises above 1.1627, that level could be reached, but I expect 1.1648 to hold for another leg down. In a different case where 1.1542 breaks, then sellers' momentum should target 1.1527/00 with the risk, if there is no significant bounce from there, of a drop at 1.1461. Daily volatility (range) 52 pips Have a great day! 4H {image}
its all pointing south for now! I hope we can get to around 1615 before another leg down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,536
  • Oct 9, 2025 11:41pm Oct 9, 2025 11:41pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} very well done mate! More to cone or time to take a break before next leg?
The beauty of long term plans with appropriate positions management is that a lot of noisy moves are absorbed, letting u to relatively ignore intraday fluctuations. Anyway thanx buddy, i don t exclude in the next days a retest of figure 1,16 but unless another big surprise the path to the downside is signed till the EoY. Clearly just my view
chaos is just unknown order
  • #17,537
  • Oct 9, 2025 11:42pm Oct 9, 2025 11:42pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} its all pointing south for now! I hope we can get to around 1615 before another leg down
yes, it does.
  • #17,538
  • Oct 9, 2025 11:46pm Oct 9, 2025 11:46pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} its all pointing south for now! I hope we can get to around 1615 before another leg down
1557 might hold but the daily pivot around 1585 might bring it down again. Anyway bearish too!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,539
  • Edited Oct 10, 2025 12:18am Oct 9, 2025 11:59pm | Edited Oct 10, 2025 12:18am
So this is my current evaluation. Already after Powell's announcement of the rate cuts, it felt like a reversal to me.
Now looking at the chart on the weekly basis we have every indication that a reversal is taking place.

When you look to the left of the chart you see a lot of wicking, liquidity coiling up over the past 14 weeks. Price is held in a rather tight range compared to the timeline. Bodies closing inside the range, only the wicks of the candles are stinging out

This week´s candle differs. It is the first true displacement — a full-bodied close below a major structural low, and importantly, with a small wick. And outside of the previous range.

Look on weekly charts below: EURUSD vs. GBPUSD: in the week of Jerome Powell´s announcement we have a clear bearish divergence. This week GBPUSD made a lower high, whilst EURUSD made a higher high aka the sweep. Now they are in sync again.

My main focus will be on bearish trades and maybe here and there a bullish retracement.


I'm happy to adjust my evaluation if you think I've overlooked something.
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  • #17,540
  • Oct 10, 2025 12:08am Oct 10, 2025 12:08am
Near third resistance test
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