Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee | Forex Factory

  • Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

    From federalreserve.gov

    The deputy manager turned first to an overview of financial market developments during the intermeeting period. Markets appeared to interpret data releases and FOMC communications as indicating that the baseline outlook was little changed but that downside risks to the labor market had increased. Median modal expectations for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation this year and next from the Open Market Desk's Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey) increased only slightly, and expectations for the unemployment rate increased only marginally overall. However, after the weaker-than-expected July and ... (full story)

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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 1:24pm
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Please, for the love of all that is holy in technical analysis, let this news signal the short-term top in gold!

A healthy 3~5% pullback after being extended 12% from the 50day AM (not the farthest it's ever been, but VERY overbought).

Of course, what we will ACTUALLY see is a 15 pt dip that is bought up by foreign governments and speculators for new highs before the close of the US cash equity session.

Still, the minutes seem to offer a mixed bag for the metal: risks to inflation are mentioned (+gold), but more easing is expected (-gold). US shutdown (+gold) still exists, though to what extent this weighs on the metal is unknown in the face of so much recent buying. "decrease" in geopolitical turmoil (per headlines) should see a drop in gold prices, but headlines remain a "believe it when we see it" situation I guess. A rising dollar should be smacking gold down...but it's not.

Markets are playing a game of chicken right now though with the dollar up, bonds flat, equities ATHs and rising, metals ATHs and rising.....something is going to break.....it's just a matter of what.
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Vancarbon
Oct 8, 2025 1:53pm
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Don’t worry ghost .

It won’t be a 10% correction. It’ll be a 25% correction , that’s guaranteed .

Hedge funds and momentum, game of Chicken is an understatement . Everything is so out of balance it’s not worth commenting about .
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 2:37pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Well done you . Unfortunately , they’re not making insane profits , it’s all “ projected “ on insane expectations without repercussions . Been there , done that, got the T-shirt . Hedge funds, momentum and hype . When things appear out of kilter to sane individuals they generally are , it’s the mad dogs that get caught salivating over the corpse , last to the kill that end up being the prey
You beat me as I was typing!!!
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ntrpy
Oct 8, 2025 4:22pm
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FOMC Meeting Minutes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 26 KB
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 1:30pm
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Quoting Trader#3345
Dovish Fed, unstoppable AI. Stocks will not go down at all, 7k coming on spx without ever seeing 6700 again, free money everyday for 5 straight months.
It's funny: the "sane" trader says that you are out of your mind.....but the charts tell us all day after day that you are correct.

I think a lot of us have been waiting for the 10% pullback that is coming......but it has yet to arrive, and most have been been waiting for that pullback for some 20% now....and seemingly will need to wait a little longer.

It's a wild time to be invested. Bears WILL get paid at some point...but, as you mentioned, is that point 200 pts above these levels? 400 pts? Hard to think the S&P could stage a 44% rally off the April lows to reach 7000 by the end of the year, but then I'd have never though gold would be 60% YTD (with no end in sight) either....so what the heck do I know??
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Vancarbon
Oct 8, 2025 2:30pm
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Quoting Trader#3086
{quote} Zero chance of 25% correction from these levels without something crazy like a nuclear conflict. The 10% correction is possible but it doesn’t seem likely until we actually enter a bubble, we are just at the start of one. But you don’t have to listen to me, I’ve only been right every day for 5 months lol. No one cares about debt or tariffs when ai companies are making insane profits.
Well done you .

Unfortunately , they’re not making insane profits , it’s all “ projected “ on insane expectations without repercussions .

Been there , done that, got the T-shirt .

Hedge funds, momentum and hype . When things appear out of kilter to sane individuals they generally are , it’s the mad dogs that get caught salivating over the corpse , last to the kill that end up being the prey
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 1:35pm
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Quoting shamsha234
Gold correction soon on its over bought condition Wait for first 100 then we can expect another
As someone idiotically standing in front of this thing (well, technically, be dragged along by the feet like Hector behind Achilles' chariot), I really hope you are right....and I hope you are right TODAY (after the unflinching breech of a major round number at 4000).

That said, I'll likely end up just like Hector....and not even have the copper for my eyes...as /gc will have taken that from me too.

Moral of the story: bank long gold returns and don't pay attention to the fact that the 'non-yielding asset' is up a ridiculous 60% YTD.
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 1:39pm
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ChatGPT providing annual returns for gold since 2000.

| Year | Return (%) |
| ---: | :--------: |
| 2000 | -6.06% |
| 2001 | 1.41% |
| 2002 | 23.96% |
| 2003 | 21.74% |
| 2004 | 4.40% |
| 2005 | 17.77% |
| 2006 | 23.92% |
| 2007 | 31.59% |
| 2008 | 3.97% |
| 2009 | 25.04% |
| 2010 | 30.60% |
| 2011 | 7.80% |
| 2012 | 8.69% |
| 2013 | -27.61% |
| 2014 | -0.44% |
| 2015 | -11.61% |
| 2016 | 8.62% |
| 2017 | 9.54% |
| 2018 | -1.06% |
| 2019 | 18.28% |
| 2020 | 25.75% |
| 2021 | -3.73% |
| 2022 | 2.08% |
| 2023 | 13.14% |
| 2024 | 27.20% |

2025 YTD 54%

....which one of these things is not like the others?
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 2:37pm
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Quoting Trader#3086
{quote} Zero chance of 25% correction from these levels without something crazy like a nuclear conflict. The 10% correction is possible but it doesn’t seem likely until we actually enter a bubble, we are just at the start of one. But you don’t have to listen to me, I’ve only been right every day for 5 months lol. No one cares about debt or tariffs when ai companies are making insane profits.
I think that is the uncertainty (at least for me). The AI companies are NOT making insane profits (at least not on AI). The companies that supply TO the AI companies are making profits, so that is f driving the market higher. The AI companies are recovering cash injections based purely on speculation and not on current revenue streams.

If you look at what these companies have to spend, vs. what they are getting back from those investments, it is staggering. That said, if this all plays out as projected (and, of course, the companies offering the projections are the ones asking for you money, so take that for what it is), then all of us who have been hyper long the AI play will profit. If, however, there is a chink in the armor (i.e. any concern about the future of AI or how fast it is coming), there will be a reaction. The first one (or 5) could be bought instantly....but if something seriously impacts the future expectation of AI, the shock will be significant.

Until then, stay long, stay strong.
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ffghost
Oct 8, 2025 4:05pm
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Quoting Trader#B07E
{quote} Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are not making profits? Might want to look that up. Now if you are talking about the small upstarts like Figma, that’s a different story, but again they won’t break the spx. There will be winners and losers, the winners are and will make huge profits, the losers will go away, like always happens.
The key is "on the AI side". Yeah, all those are making money.....and had been for decades(s) before AI. Now, however, there is a massive AI-specifc upside expectation for these companies that simply has not manifested itself in sales today. We are all "early". If it works, we win. If it takes 5 years longer to come into fruition than expected, I don't know how the market reacts....but I can't believe it will be with a big spike upward (at least not initially).

But, like I said, long and strong until proven wrong.
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peekay007
Oct 8, 2025 1:47pm
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Dovish but no serious movement......market expected the outcome of the data
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Trader#FAEA
Oct 8, 2025 1:04pm
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whatever blah blah blah
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FGI-Predict
Oct 8, 2025 1:10pm
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BUYING FROM {4018 TO 4022} with SL of 4015 = Target Open - Set BE After 100 Pips
Thanks me Later
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Trader#5912
Oct 8, 2025 1:27pm
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it seems they decided to reverse the market!! the reason behind the last jump, always the same, they take their share and reverse it
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donaldkeram
Oct 8, 2025 7:35pm
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Quoting ffghost
ChatGPT providing annual returns for gold since 2000. | Year | Return (%) | | ---: | :--------: | | 2000 | -6.06% | | 2001 | 1.41% | | 2002 | 23.96% | | 2003 | 21.74% | | 2004 | 4.40% | | 2005 | 17.77% | | 2006 | 23.92% | | 2007 | 31.59% | | 2008 | 3.97% | | 2009 | 25.04% | | 2010 | 30.60% | | 2011 | 7.80% | | 2012 | 8.69% | | 2013 | -27.61% | | 2014 | -0.44% | | 2015 | -11.61% | | 2016 | 8.62% | | 2017 | 9.54% | | 2018 | -1.06% | | 2019 | 18.28% | | 2020 | 25.75% | | 2021 | -3.73% | | 2022 | 2.08% | | 2023 | 13.14% | | 2024 | 27.20% | 2025 YTD...
yes, there's a room for correction. not reversal. Not yet
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Trader#A61D
Oct 8, 2025 1:06pm
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PUMP CRYPTO BRRRR
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akSN
Oct 8, 2025 1:08pm
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gold down to 3990
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Asadullah111
Oct 8, 2025 1:09pm
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BUY OR WHAT
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Mustafa97a
Oct 8, 2025 1:11pm
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Gold Standard
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Thecraic06
Oct 8, 2025 1:13pm
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Good evening everyone
I’m Krishna
Can you help me out
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Trader#18AE
Oct 8, 2025 1:28pm
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only buy, with the geopolitical tensions still elevated; central banks continue buying gold, global debt, despite anything gold still bullissh more, slightly bearish and not to forget the usa shutdown still at 7 day now
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shamsha234
Oct 8, 2025 1:29pm
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Gold correction soon on its over bought condition
Wait for first 100 then we can expect another
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White-Collar
Oct 8, 2025 1:32pm
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A Dovish Event
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Trader#9102
Oct 8, 2025 1:37pm
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Looks like Team No Deals for the Next 4 Years is outnumbered, by a long shot.



Quote
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.
...
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook
...
Voting against this action: Stephen I. Miran.
Voting for this action: Everyone...


No news is good news, perhaps.
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Trader#C433
Oct 8, 2025 1:55pm
Permalink
Quoting ffghost
{quote} It's funny: the "sane" trader says that you are out of your mind.....but the charts tell us all day after day that you are correct. I think a lot of us have been waiting for the 10% pullback that is coming......but it has yet to arrive, and most have been been waiting for that pullback for some 20% now....and seemingly will need to wait a little longer. It's a wild time to be invested. Bears WILL get paid at some point...but, as you mentioned, is that point 200 pts above these levels? 400 pts? Hard to think the S&P could stage...
I’ve been trying to tell you and Van for months we have nothing but up in stocks lol.

Rationally, I agree with the bears, but you have to trade the chart. Look at a weekly chart of the spx, then cover up April like it didn’t happen. You will see we are not even back to our multi year trend line yet. People need to treat April for what it was, a panic induced mistake based on information that turned out to be not true.

We have to look at the charts we have, not opinions of anything. The market will of course have a correction but it could be a day or a year from now. The revenue and profit of ai companies is real, it’s not hoped for like the dot.com days. There will be losers in ai and those stocks will get crushed, but that won’t affect the indexes much. Wait until we break our very first support level the very first time, it hasn’t happened in 5 months. When it does then become cautious.
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Trader#3086
Oct 8, 2025 1:59pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Don’t worry ghost . It won’t be a 10% correction. It’ll be a 25% correction , that’s guaranteed . Hedge funds and momentum, game of Chicken is an understatement . Everything is so out of balance it’s not worth commenting about .
Zero chance of 25% correction from these levels without something crazy like a nuclear conflict. The 10% correction is possible but it doesn’t seem likely until we actually enter a bubble, we are just at the start of one. But you don’t have to listen to me, I’ve only been right every day for 5 months lol. No one cares about debt or tariffs when ai companies are making insane profits.
Reply
Trader#0B9B
Oct 8, 2025 2:04pm
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If you are long gold, good for you, you were smart enough to recognize a trend and trade with it instead of spending all day screaming that the market is “wrong”. But at above 4k you only rational choice is to protect your profits. Talk to your broker about spending a bit on Puts, that’s the only true protection.
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Trader#5912
Oct 8, 2025 2:13pm
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Quoting Trader#5912
it seems they decided to reverse the market!! the reason behind the last jump, always the same, they take their share and reverse it
time to say goodby, As I said!!! now look at the chart, Gold 4H candle will close under 4040 and with RSI divergence everyone ride on shorts, but banks might not let gold lose resistances like 3960 3840 or 3800...
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Trader#B07E
Oct 8, 2025 2:47pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Well done you . Unfortunately , they’re not making insane profits , it’s all “ projected “ on insane expectations without repercussions . Been there , done that, got the T-shirt . Hedge funds, momentum and hype . When things appear out of kilter to sane individuals they generally are , it’s the mad dogs that get caught salivating over the corpse , last to the kill that end up being the prey
Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are not making profits? Might want to look that up. Now if you are talking about the small upstarts like Figma, that’s a different story, but again they won’t break the spx. There will be winners and losers, the winners are and will make huge profits, the losers will go away, like always happens.
Reply
Trader#F5DE
Oct 8, 2025 2:50pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Well done you . Unfortunately , they’re not making insane profits , it’s all “ projected “ on insane expectations without repercussions . Been there , done that, got the T-shirt . Hedge funds, momentum and hype . When things appear out of kilter to sane individuals they generally are , it’s the mad dogs that get caught salivating over the corpse , last to the kill that end up being the prey
Also, let’s not forget you said the same a 6000, 6200, 6400, etc. Calling for a crash everyday over hundreds of points of rally isn’t terribly useful to anyone. Telling people to buy every dip has been 100% correct and useful however.
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Trader#A955
Oct 8, 2025 3:25pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Thankfully I’m an observer at this point. At least, I can still stay true , use my log in username unlike a lot of the cowardly individuals who care to criticise me .
Don’t worry, I’ll be in a situation soon that prevents posting anything, so you only have a short time left to attack the person with the most accurate predictions ever (over 5 months anyway).
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Kriauzza
Oct 8, 2025 3:33pm
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Yo what's happening with the government? Does anybody know how long should the shut down take?
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Trader#FCB2
Oct 8, 2025 3:44pm
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Quoting Kriauzza
Yo what's happening with the government? Does anybody know how long should the shut down take?
It can last 4 or 5 weeks, but that should be about the maximum because then essential workers start calling in sick and things start falling apart. I’d guess it’s going to last another week at least though.
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Trader#0D6C
Oct 8, 2025 1:03pm
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Demand Tumbles
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Trader#48AA
Oct 8, 2025 1:06pm
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There is no QT cause they made a backdoor QE.
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Trader#5912
Oct 8, 2025 1:07pm
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time to gold reversal
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Trader#405B
Oct 8, 2025 1:13pm
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What tf do that mean
Reply
Trader#5912
Oct 8, 2025 1:18pm
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never lose 3950
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Trader#3345
Oct 8, 2025 1:18pm
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Dovish Fed, unstoppable AI.

Stocks will not go down at all, 7k coming on spx without ever seeing 6700 again, free money everyday for 5 straight months.
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Trader#E495
Oct 8, 2025 1:19pm
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What is happening
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Trader#21A9
Oct 8, 2025 1:23pm
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I SELL?
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Trader#5912
Oct 8, 2025 1:39pm
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Guys stop debating, it's very very normal to correct to 3900-4000, gold is not crypto, enjoy your long TP and wait for 4h signal for your next short TP
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Trader#2D9B
Oct 8, 2025 1:56pm
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"From where can gold pull back again toward its all-time high? And if a downward move happens, how low can we expect gold to go?"
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Trader#1B32
Oct 8, 2025 2:06pm
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Quoting FGI-Predict
BUYING FROM {4018 TO 4022} with SL of 4015 = Target Open - Set BE After 100 Pips Thanks me Later
you did well good job it broke past
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Trader#7073
Oct 8, 2025 3:18pm
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Time for crypto!
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Trader#A306
Oct 9, 2025 12:59am
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Very refreshing and relevant: every piece of information worth of action for thoughtful AI traders.
Reply
Trader#55B4
Oct 8, 2025 1:04pm
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when pump? we need crypto to the moon!
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