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The Swamp

  • #125,301
  • Oct 7, 2025 12:59am Oct 7, 2025 12:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Sustained 1729+ could be a day b/o North.. But it has all this clutter above it to break.. 1719 and 1743 is expired. If it was to fall -1656 may be a b/o if sustained below.. Some range could be 1656/1728.. 1777/78 is a light support area. To go North it really needs to clear 1755, 1729 36 55 is big numbers.. {image}
pa is below all these numbers but remain above 1680 1688. I m not sure where we want to go.
until i see a daily close below 1680 or above 1740 maybe
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,302
  • Oct 7, 2025 3:53am Oct 7, 2025 3:53am
It could be a little bear weakness not to close below 1667.4 now, but would probably need to do it above 1750 probably this time tomorrow.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,303
  • Oct 7, 2025 4:05am Oct 7, 2025 4:05am
Quoting gatorinla
It could be a little bear weakness not to close below 1667.4 now, but would probably need to do it above 1750 probably this time tomorrow.
Bears look to test 1650ish area. If pa this time tomorrow is above 1750 it has a chance to b/o North. It looks like it could try South today,, It still would need to b/o.. pa just closed the 12h above the b/o to me. So may bounce after a try.
The range area looks like 1656 1728.. until one has a sustained b/o.. It would be below the low to go South..
The 12h didn't do it.. It looks like it will try sometime today.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,304
  • Oct 7, 2025 4:14am Oct 7, 2025 4:14am
Quoting johncen
{quote} pa is below all these numbers but remain above 1680 1688. I m not sure where we want to go. until i see a daily close below 1680 or above 1740 maybe
The range to me about 1656 1728.. It has a chance to b/o South with the close below 1667. But we could just as well be back to 1749+ this time tomorrow.
If it don't break South after trying.. The rejection can be a test of 1729.. A close this time tomorrow above 1750 +55 better looks like a North b/o
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,305
  • Oct 7, 2025 4:23am Oct 7, 2025 4:23am
ADR and some other things are close in that 1640/50 area
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,306
  • Oct 7, 2025 4:32am Oct 7, 2025 4:32am
Quoting johncen
{quote} pa is below all these numbers but remain above 1680 1688. I m not sure where we want to go. until i see a daily close below 1680 or above 1740 maybe
the close below 1667 is the better chance than its been in a while. Since the day and week are on the same page, To me the q and month are against it. Tomorrow it could be the other way off 1649..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,307
  • Oct 7, 2025 7:44am Oct 7, 2025 7:44am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} morning, thanks France, took some shorts off, half of position left. we are testing an important lvl here also support from last week no longs for me but also not adding shorts. Have a good week
took a bit more of my short, testing yesterday S.
Don't get greedy here. 1.16 -1.165 is strong range.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,308
  • Oct 7, 2025 9:16am Oct 7, 2025 9:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the close below 1667 is the better chance than its been in a while. Since the day and week are on the same page, To me the q and month are against it. Tomorrow it could be the other way off 1649..
and that in science means waiting
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,309
  • Oct 7, 2025 9:35am Oct 7, 2025 9:35am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I was referring to UJ to go higher. above 150 E/U I think we can see at least 1.16 not sure after cause then we are going to start thinking about bad jobs reports.
UJ on fire. March lvl now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,310
  • Oct 7, 2025 9:52am Oct 7, 2025 9:52am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} and that in science means waiting
Weekly close will be important. both positions are risky from a perspective here and at the same time we have an important lvl where things are less risky

it's a Paradox. That's why waiting is the easy path.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,311
  • Oct 7, 2025 10:09am Oct 7, 2025 10:09am
London traders kept in the 165x/6x area. Why? to break out lower? Or to blast through 1755? Late Asia early London seems like a good time to break North, South can anytime.
Risking it gone North may risk less pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,312
  • Oct 7, 2025 10:19am Oct 7, 2025 10:19am
Quoting gatorinla
London traders kept in the 165x/6x area. Why? to break out lower? Or to blast through 1755? Late Asia early London seems like a good time to break North, South can anytime. Risking it gone North may risk less pips.
third time testing this spot now, 1645 still not be seen and we are having a bounce now…. Not sure if we will see 164x first
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,313
  • Oct 7, 2025 10:33am Oct 7, 2025 10:33am
If the 12h candle close tomorrow in London is above 1750. I think that lines up bulls for a leg. +1755 is better, +1769 even better
Below these and 1728..and it may need to run to 1662/63 LC
1704 by then could be in the game
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,314
  • Oct 7, 2025 11:04am Oct 7, 2025 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
If the 12h candle close tomorrow in London is above 1750. I think that lines up bulls for a leg. +1755 is better, +1769 even better Below these and 1728..and it may need to run to 1662/63 LC 1704 by then could be in the game
12 hours looks very clear for a very important lvl like I've said at 1.165 but RSI is below 50
For this wave 1.171 at 12H is strong. I would be very surprised to get above so easy as you say. But we will see.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,315
  • Oct 7, 2025 11:08am Oct 7, 2025 11:08am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 12 hours looks very clear for a very important lvl like I've said at 1.165 but RSI is below 50 For this wave 1.171 at 12H is strong. I would be very surprised to get above so easy as you say. But we will see.
1.171 maybe goes with RSI 50. but very hard to have this one close with a 12H candle.

It will have a lot of negative stuff near 1.169 - 1.17 - 1.171
Imho it will be very hard to break this. I may get my short back there.

But for anyone 1.164 area is a monster you can hit but hard to kill
maybe you stab it but not kill it (close below)
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,316
  • Edited 11:26am Oct 7, 2025 11:15am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 12 hours looks very clear for a very important lvl like I've said at 1.165 but RSI is below 50 For this wave 1.171 at 12H is strong. I would be very surprised to get above so easy as you say. But we will see.
I'm going by what bulls want. What would flip some structure. . The indicators just average mostly what has happened. I don't know but a 12h rsi may show different
If the quarter had turned bearish I would be aiming to short. Since it didn't I have to look at 1.2067 or the lower tl above 1.2
.. It may just be bouncing on a support now.
1865 may be a leg
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,317
  • Oct 7, 2025 11:39am Oct 7, 2025 11:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm going by what bulls want. What would flip some structure. . The indicators just average mostly what has happened. I don't know but a 12h rsi may show different If the quarter had turned bearish I would be aiming to short. Since it didn't I have to look at 1.2067 or the lower tl above 1.2 .. It may just be bouncing on a support now. 1865 may be a leg {image}
Your blue area is exactly the problem.
If I respect the correct angles and degrees, then here’s the issue
It broke a trendline that touches exactly at 1.171, which I mentioned earlier.


I can see the importance of 1.175, but we still haven’t had even the first reaction to test 1.171, let alone a second one to break through it.
Also, it took us three months to break above 1.175, and now we’ve been sitting below it since last month (September) that doesn’t look bullish to me.
Even in a bearish trend, we haven’t climbed above 1.168, which would be the first notable resistance if the current move is indeed downward.
And even if it’s just a range, 1.168 remains very important, we need to close at least one 1H candle above it.
So yes, it’s easy to say it might bounce from here, but will it jump above 1.175?
Very unlikely. Still, I’ll keep an open mind.

So ofc if we get above it's bullish again but I feel your are seeing things before happening. Once it happens I can get long. Big trend still up
This was exactly why I saw a range before it happened, have to check again but I remember the reason was the price action we got in July,.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,318
  • Oct 7, 2025 12:04pm Oct 7, 2025 12:04pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 12 hours looks very clear for a very important lvl like I've said at 1.165 but RSI is below 50 For this wave 1.171 at 12H is strong. I would be very surprised to get above so easy as you say. But we will see.
Third time at 1.1678 (3 consecutive hours)
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,319
  • Oct 7, 2025 1:02pm Oct 7, 2025 1:02pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Third time at 1.1678 (3 consecutive hours)
and going down, will try a fast short until 1.165 again unless we take 1.168 on 1h
15-20p
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,320
  • Oct 7, 2025 2:11pm Oct 7, 2025 2:11pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Your blue area is exactly the problem. If I respect the correct angles and degrees, then here’s the issue It broke a trendline that touches exactly at 1.171, which I mentioned earlier. I can see the importance of 1.175, but we still haven’t had even the first reaction to test 1.171, let alone a second one to break through it. Also, it took us three months to break above 1.175, and now we’ve been sitting below it since last month (September) that doesn’t look bullish to me. Even in a bearish trend, we haven’t climbed above 1.168, which would...
The quarter and 6 mth structure is bullish. the week and day bearish. I'm not disputing your findings. I'm saying "if the 12h in London tomorrow closes above 1750 or 55. It would reverse to me. The bearish movement of today. 1649 is a point that can do that. Bears would need to take pa below 1649 and hold it. If not the 6 mth, quarter, and month would likely put pa back above 1749x.. to reverse the wk and day
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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