Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Had to go to sea - working - for a couple of days, so missed the action.

Wow - what a sell of from 23:00 edt, down over 200 pips in 40 mins into a nice hammer on the M2 support....also with high volume. Then an hour´s bounce back up to the daily pivot at 231.22.


Then in the middle of the Frankfurt Hour and at the London Open two retests of the M2. Now its holding around halfway between then pivot and M2 so I guess that we´ll have to wait for the UK REtail Sales data at 4:30 edt to see where it heads next this morning.

The 78.6% fibbo off the Daily is at 227.50 and the Weekly S3 is at 227.90 so they are the current targets and with the current downwards momentum can easily be hit

Definitely, you can eventually go long fading down spike but it's better to trade with the trend right now knowing the mess there is on the stock market right now

Guys, this isnt normal neither it is sane - 20 minutes ago i had 140 pips short on GJ, now Im 260 pips short. That kinda movement isnt good IMO, I mean this is panic all over the place...

Here, as i wrote this I am 319 pips positive... frantic.

I opened my short position 17 hours ago, now I'm +900, thats not frantic thats ultimately insane..

On the spike low i was up 300 pips, and tried to close at 224.99. The order was pending for 25 minutes and geppy went up to 226.xx

That sucks!!!!!!

just 6 mini lots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Had to go out for three hours......around 230 when I left, then down over 500 pips.......there were 2 X 1 min candles with ranges > 100 pips....yes, in 60 seconds......YEEKS.....some blow off.

When S1 broke, it fell 335 in 6 mins and now S3 has held twice as support after being blown straight thru in that first madness.

These are dangerous times to be trading, so take care to use good MM or these swings will wipe you out.

smells nucke

Hi Islander,

One heck of a move! I hope you were part of it.

Were to now? I am not sure! I had a very good morning and still in a profitable trade.

Regards,

Chris.

I think this will retrace to around the 228 - 228.50 level and could possibly carry on north although I am ready to take profit around that area.

I have attached a chart (hopefully, first one!) which shows my view of the recent move down.

Had a take profit on the move down just above the lower blue rising trend line at 225, as it turned out I chose it well.
(I show a candlestick chart but the trend lines are calculated on the closing price of a line chart)

Took a long at 225.96 after price movement showed a move up.

The chart looks right for a move up now although I base that view purely on the chart and not the world economy.

I am ready to jump on the southerly train again though.

Regards,

Chris.

Well took out my trailing stop for 110 so happy enough gonna watch for a while now.

took long @ 226.21.

not looking to good though.

Sorry to say that I was flat during the sell off as I had confused signals before I went out.

Now that we have had a blow off, the markets have slowed down and GJ is back respecting its pivots.

The blow off low was a hammer on my 5 min with a 100 pip tail!!

Note the big jump in volume at the low, prior highs were around 440, that one was over double at 910, with the following highs around 500, a sure indication that buyers were present, halting any further decline.....for now.

5 min chart head and shoulders taking this long if it breaks below stop and reverse

A look a my Daily Chart and I am showing the two options as I see them today, Elliotwise.....an ABC correction OR a 5 wave Impulsive structure - implying much lower prices to come.

IF the present down move holds no lower than the area of the March 5 lows.....the 221.00 area, then we can expect EITHER the resumption of the uptrend, or a W4 retrace before a further W5 down.

However, IF the 221 area FAILS, then W3 could become a BIG Wave 3, say 2.618 of W1 or some 3400 pips........that would imply the 207.00 area!!

There are some important Daily Time Lines coming up between now and the middle of next week on many of the major pairs and next Wednesday will be 29 days since this fall started and 144 days from the March 5th low. This will be an area timewise where "something should happen" so I currently favour a low on the daily chart next week.

IF that happens, rather than this sell off accelerating into the 2.618 extension, then the I will start looking at where that bounce might go.

For now, there is not yet any confirmation that this fall has ended.....just some "stopping volume" at todays spike low

220 here we come.....AAAAHHHHH....KUDUSHH!!!!!

Wow, It has passed by trough all supports I was thinking would take a rest... any idea when will this stop? Could be possible to see a negative number? like GBP/JPY @ -25.87 ja ja ja ja

Over a 1000 pip range today, mostly down of course.

If Lion is still in beers are on him.

G-Man

This is a 1000 pip day and already within 50 of the very important 221 level......IF UJ decides to head for its May 17 low at 109, then we can expect another 700 pips down in GJ.....lets see what the next few hours bring.

CAble and the Euro are trying to hold above their lows, but for how long?

+1140 at the moment, I'm too scary to be scared at the moment because I must resist strong temptation to close. But my system tells me to hold on( I hate my system now)

dow has earning report for HP coming out soon. It might help a little to bring it back up.

my feeling is, it will pull up then collapse on the last hour. bringing yen crosses down again. its pulling up slowly right now.

will wait and see!