Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

I get an error when trying to add the pinescript

https://prnt.sc/QyERsnqe5Peq

The pivotal points and the additional Blue's Clues levels are almost a roadmap for where the market is going next. Almost.


Two days with this account. I cashed in the previous funded. This one I'm going to let ride to $1,000,000. "Blue's Clues, Blue's Clues!" (My three children were babies and toddlers when the original Blue's Clues was on, and this thread has me remembering those days on an almost hourly basis). I thank you, Bluesteele, for the method and for rekindling those memories.



I'm done for the day. Back at it tomorrow, though I have a conference call for work at 10 AM Eastern so I may skip tomorrow and wait for a fresh week next week.

Yep.. that's where I got the name of the thread from..

Alot of thoughts I would like to share on this thread.. trying to form some sort of flow to them is another story !
Bit of a muddle head..

The market opens each day with an illusion. Retail sees movement. Institutions see motive.

One thing I would like to say is what I have been illustrating, mostly, all comes from J. Peter Steidlmayer.

Market Profile/Volume Profile/Auction Market Theory.

The theory is simply the market is an auction to facilitate trade/exchange of goods/assets
And thru the Auction process 2 things only happen.
1.Determine Fair Value / BALANCE
2.Explore for New Value / IMBALANCE

Market profile was developed before mainstream computing came along for the average trader.
Volume profile is a more modern version with a slightly different spin on things and this is a result
of volume DATA becoming widely available to traders off the floor.

Enough background and I think I shall only discuss what I see as the bedrock anchor points that
my foundation is built on and that is the INITIAL BALANCE /IB

Market profile is divided into periods starting with A>B>C etc and each period is 30minutes.
So with Indices..A period is 930-10 B period 10-1030 etc.

Initial Balance is simply A+B=1hr IB
Now like Market profile charts..Volume profile the IB gives us a distribution.

For simplicity they are Normal range IB Wide range IB and Narrow range IB
Wide range is more likely to stay in value (Inside IBH-IBL without any excess time/Closes out of the range)
Narrow range is more likely to Breakout.

What this does is give us a possible framework to work with as the IB forms..
Now another piece of how the IB works is this,,,
A+B=IB Now once C period starts is where it gets interesting and this market generated info
can provide good insight on where the market may be headed..

IB 930-1030 (A+B)
C period 1030-11... If the market closes outside the IBH or low at 11 and the majority of the time is spent outside
the IB that is now a Successful Auction to either the downside or up depending where C period closes.
Probabilites now favour an extended move and one can use for ex to the upside a retrace to IBH or perhaps even the 50% level.

Now the flipside is IF C Period FAILS to close outside of the IB..It is a FAILED Auction... Now D period 11-1130 may spend its time
outside IB and now the market flips to a successful auction and we can look for extension.
BUT if C fails and price continues chopping around say the IBH (Failed long auction) there is approx a 70-80%
probability the market will test the IBL.... and conversely the other way around

I will post charts to illustrate as might sound complicated but its not.

The other thing I want to point out is that Considering the IB is a distribution the market/price will often TEST
this distribution...and this is really really key here...pay attention to the OPEN..WHy the Open ? because that
is where the volume comes in and that is a big part of the distribution. Key key key did I say key.

This plays out all the time and the market always gravitates to liquidity...and we know liquidity is simply
high volume areas where slippage is minimal and large transactions can be executed quickly with narrow bid/ask spread.

YM Dow Examples









GOLD A+ example todays Narrow IB/Distribution inside Yesterdays Wide...Think of like an Inside bar setup and then where does it go ?
To Distribution/Volume the Open.

Coffee with a few peanut butter cookies this morning...
More coffee with a few slices of toast and Peanut butter..

Think im caffeined out for the day,,,

One day im going to post a pic like Turnip ! but not with the fancy cups and saucers !
Forgot to post a more close up... here it is

Grok made some changes to the pine script and work now.

//@version=5 indicator("Delta Volume Bubbles", overlay=true) //#region ——— Inputs bool show_bubbles = input.bool(true, "Show Bubbles", group="Order Flow") float bubble_percentile = input.float(98, "Bubble Volume %ile", minval=0, maxval=100, group="Order Flow") bool show_labels = input.bool(true, "Show Numbers in Bubbles", group="Bubble Labels") float label_percentile = input.float(98, "Label Volume %ile", minval=0, maxval=100, group="Bubble Labels") bool intensity_mode = input.bool(false, "Intensity Mode", group="Order Flow") bool use_aggressive_factor = input.bool(false, "Use Aggressive Factor", group="Order Flow") bool minimal_mode = input.bool(false, "Minimal Mode (Tiny dots only)", group="Order Flow") bool use_delta_avg = input.bool(true, "Use Delta Average (vs Volume SMA)", group="Order Flow") bool use_delta_filter = input.bool(true, "Use Delta Filter (vs Volume Filter)", group="Order Flow") // Colors color aggressive_buy = color.new(#00ff88, 20) color aggressive_sell = color.new(#ff4444, 20) color passive_buy = color.new(#88ff88, 60) color passive_sell = color.new(#ff8888, 60) color low_intensity = color.new(color.gray, 70) color med_intensity = color.new(color.blue, 50) color high_intensity = color.new(color.orange, 30) color extreme_intensity = color.new(color.red, 10) //#endregion //#region ——— Helper Functions // Format numbers with K/M notation f_format_with_k(float value) => var float abs_value = math.abs(value) var string sign = value < 0 ? "-" : "" string result = if abs_value >= 1000000 sign + str.tostring(abs_value / 1000000, "#.##") + "M" else if abs_value >= 1000 sign + str.tostring(abs_value / 1000, "#.##") + "K" else sign + str.tostring(abs_value, "#") result //#endregion //#region ——— Calculations // Estimate volume delta using price movement float price_change = close - open float price_range = high - low float body_ratio = price_range == 0 ? 0 : math.abs(price_change) / price_range float aggressive_factor = use_aggressive_factor ? (body_ratio > 0.7 ? 1.5 : body_ratio > 0.4 ? 1.2 : 1.0) : 1.0 float buy_vol = price_change > 0 ? volume * aggressive_factor : 0 float sell_vol = price_change < 0 ? volume * aggressive_factor : 0 float net_delta = buy_vol - sell_vol // Normalization float vol_ma = ta.sma(volume, 20) float delta_avg = ta.sma(math.abs(net_delta), 20) float normalization_base = use_delta_avg ? delta_avg : vol_ma float delta_strength = normalization_base == 0 ? 0 : math.abs(net_delta) / normalization_base // Filters float bubble_vol_filter = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(volume, 50, bubble_percentile) float bubble_delta_filter = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(math.abs(net_delta), 50, bubble_percentile) float label_vol_filter = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(volume, 50, label_percentile) float label_delta_filter = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(math.abs(net_delta), 50, label_percentile) float bubble_filter = use_delta_filter ? bubble_delta_filter : bubble_vol_filter float label_filter = use_delta_filter ? label_delta_filter : label_vol_filter // Flow and intensity colors bool is_aggressive_buy = net_delta > 0 and delta_strength > 1.2 bool is_aggressive_sell = net_delta < 0 and delta_strength > 1.2 color flow_color = is_aggressive_buy ? aggressive_buy : is_aggressive_sell ? aggressive_sell : net_delta > 0 ? passive_buy : passive_sell color intensity_color = delta_strength < 0.5 ? low_intensity : delta_strength < 1.0 ? med_intensity : delta_strength < 2.0 ? high_intensity : extreme_intensity color final_color = intensity_mode ? intensity_color : flow_color // Bubble size logic bool show_tiny = delta_strength < 0.3 and show_bubbles and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > bubble_filter : volume > bubble_filter) bool show_small = delta_strength >= 0.3 and delta_strength < 0.7 and show_bubbles and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > bubble_filter : volume > bubble_filter) bool show_normal = delta_strength >= 0.7 and delta_strength < 1.2 and show_bubbles and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > bubble_filter : volume > bubble_filter) bool show_large = delta_strength >= 1.2 and delta_strength < 2.0 and show_bubbles and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > bubble_filter : volume > bubble_filter) bool show_huge = delta_strength >= 2.0 and show_bubbles and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > bubble_filter : volume > bubble_filter) bool show_label = show_labels and (use_delta_filter ? math.abs(net_delta) > label_filter : volume > label_filter) string bubble_text = f_format_with_k(net_delta) //#endregion //#region ——— Plotting float offset = syminfo.mintick * 3 float dot_position = net_delta > 0 ? high + offset : low - offset bool show_dot = (show_tiny or show_small or show_normal or show_large or show_huge) and show_bubbles // Plot shapes plotshape(minimal_mode and show_dot ? dot_position : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.tiny) plotshape(not minimal_mode and show_tiny ? hl2 : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.tiny) plotshape(not minimal_mode and show_small ? hl2 : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.small) plotshape(not minimal_mode and show_normal ? hl2 : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.normal) plotshape(not minimal_mode and show_large ? hl2 : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.large) plotshape(not minimal_mode and show_huge ? hl2 : na, style=shape.circle, location=location.absolute, color=final_color, size=size.huge) // Plot labels if not minimal_mode and show_label label.new(bar_index, hl2, bubble_text, style=label.style_label_center, color=color.new(color.white, 100), textcolor=color.black, size=size.small) // Warning for no volume data if ta.cum(volume) <= 0 and barstate.islast label.new(bar_index, hl2, "No Volume Data Available\nSwitch to volume-enabled symbol", style=label.style_label_left, textcolor=chart.fg_color) //#endregion

Not really a muddled head… so much value in that post and thank you for taking the time to be as detailed as you have.

I have to say I had never done the research on the results and potential follow up to C/D, but one would be crazy to ignore that 70/80% probability (I assume borne out of decades of experience)? Something else that I had never considered is the time spent outside the IB and the resulting successful/failed status (plenty to ponder there too).

I think that ‘C’ should be replaced by ‘D’ in the line mentioning the 70/80% probability if I read you correctly, or does that apply to ‘C’ and/or ‘D’?

I like your IB Delta Stats: always good to have an idea where we are compared to recent history: I wonder if anyone knows of a simple indicator for it for MT4?

I don’t trade Gold, but looking at today’s drop, it went straight through the IBL, then yesterdays’ IBL and ignored the 2 support lows from 2 days ago and eventually got its first bounce exactly on the IBH from 2 days ago and eventually ticked the bottom on the 50% level from 2 days ago. If anyone thinks this is just pure luck, then they’re not paying attention…

I picked the top to the initial move outside the IB almost to the tick (Weekly VWAP +2.5SD), exited too early at the IBL. Was waiting for a Long at the Weekly VWAP (pink line) but it sliced straight through it and I did not have any meaningful level until the next Weekly VWAP / Weekly Pivot. If only I had marked yesterday’s IBL, that pretty much picked the bottom to 4 points. Everyday is still a learning day…

Should have watched this earlier regarding trading gold or American Indices during the UK morning ( Out of hours regarding New York trading session.)
Talks if Initial Balance etc.

Yep ...that's why I always say the IB levels are good for minimum 24hours.. many days asia and UK will adhere to the NY levels... There are exceptions to the rule like anything..for ex when price is just nowhere near the US IB levels... One can use the same principle with London open..

But yes...NY IB levels are the goto for all 3 sessions.

Hey Kevin... and to those interested, the attached photo is market profile, the yellow and orange lines show the POC, VAH and VAL as it develops throughout the day.. the indicator was found here on FF, called marketprofile 1.24. Interesting to see developing Value areas..

Cheers.. Mike

Apologies, just saw this now, I copied from my tablet which was a pain in itself.. next time I'll post from my PC.. but it looks like a correction was uploaded since. I got the original code free by searching in the indicator for 'delta volume bubbles', I merely increased some settings (increased % to 98) to take out noise leaving highest volumes.

100,00% yes

Let me grab some charts as Gold had a few excellent setups todays

Post them up here shortly

First thing that caught my eye this morning was HH's.... Always aware of Globex H/L
Second thing which I have discussed is how the market is always seeking Fair Value...

We know IB establishes the value for the start of the day and thru until the next day...Like the
video Turnip posted above... the IB is valid for a minimun 24hrs...asn we see at days close todays
"auction" ended right back in yesterdays IB Value area.. It is simply or should I say "Can Be" a magnet
for price.



I am always watching numerous VWAPS...Monthly Weekly Daily etc....to gauge "Where is price engaging"
Are we in balance or imbalance...Those 2 questions are key. as then you know what setup am I looking for.

Price was In balance on the Weekly VWAP and normal behaviour is that it will test the opposite side (thinking Long before Comex Open)


Monthly VWAP price was imbalanced and had returned to value inside the VWAP 1SD levels. Behaviour again is a test of the opposite side..

Key was that engulfing candle after the open that closed above Monthly VWAP and taking out GLobex High...Target is other side
of VWAP which it hit..

Other point is as I posted up yesterday..Market Profile says when price goes into excess outside the IB High or Low and holds for a minimum
of 30 minutes we have a successful, in this case upside auction.

And exactly as I stated in yesterdays post about this...The setup then is look to buy either the IBhigh or a test of the 50% level..

Now I also incorpoarate VWAP and one could have faded that monthly 1SD or simply using Market Profile and VWAP etc and
a perfect VWAP bounce sets up....




And the last key as pertaining to the Long you highlighted is found in the Session/Daily VWAP
I said how Monthly VWAP had gone from a price discovery short to back inside Value and normal
behaviour is for the opposite side to be tested,,, Weekly VWAP in balance and the lower 1SD was already
tested normal behaviour test of opposite side,, So monthly long weekly long.

Premarket we get a nice VWAP bounce on the Session/Daily VWAP...and then on your highlighted candle
Session VWAP breaks out into Price Discovery ! as well the same candle engulfs and closes above monthly VWAP

A perfect long setup Deafpostman as well a note price as well with that candle broke out of VAH on Vol Profile

Thanks for pointing this trade out.. I was going to post up about this exact trade/setup this morning but got sidetracked.

Sometimes I wish I could just do a quick easy reply.. But I always want to try and explain,,and not necessarily for the person
who asks a question but for any others that are silent..As not everyone wants to participate here...and I know many already know
what I am talking about and for some its just basic..for others its new info..and I always want to provide good information.
Lord knows the internet and this place too is chock full of not the best information,,,

With that said I hope this helps someone start clicking things together in whatever capacity that may be....

Hockey game soon !!! Edmonton Oilers vs VAncouver Canucks starts in 30 mins or so..

Cheers !

Thankyou for taking the time to post your charts and detailed explanations …. I was looking at your charts and trying/comparing out various volume related tools to see what price was doing..… enjoy the game… see you on the charts..

I'll be going radio silent for awhile. Big things on my horizon. I'm in touch with Blue offline. However, every time I make a big leap forward in my trading it is because I stepped away from the distractions of FF. I feel I'm on the verge of another big step forward, so I'm going to log out for a bit. Good trading and living to all.

ES


NQx2

Blessings my friend !

NQ Fri OCt 3rd Recap from Chris Drysdale

October 3, 2025 - NQ Recap
Balanced market open with extreme swings back and froth from one value extreme to the other. Tried a PD to the downside and rejected back into balance. By 1pm we got the real PD move down with PDC and another major distribution being formed for the session close.

1. Fade Value Area Extremes Long
2. Fade Value Area Extremes Short
3. Price Discovery Continuation Short
4. Return to Value Long
5. VWAP Bounce Short
6. Fade Value Area Extremes Short
7. Price Discovery Continuation Short
8. Price Discovery Continuation Short (IB Low)
9. IB 100% Extension Fade Long (Also Weekly VWAP, Advanced Playbook)
10. Price Discovery Continuation Short
11. Price Discovery Continuation Short

RoadMap using a linechart (Vidvad )

ES > RoadMap and VWAP with 1min line chart....

Timings Levels Behaviour of Price.


Now same chart with candles and the 8ema channel,, dont hurt your eyes

Chris Drysdale YouTube short

I would have to agree this level is extremely important as so much is based off of this.....