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  • #17,361
  • Oct 4, 2025 3:28am Oct 4, 2025 3:28am
Quoting josip
{quote} update EURUSD H4 trendlines we switched to H4 and...if we stay in red channel and resistance (R) wil be overcome (1.1750-60) we can rise to 1.18 key is 1.1750-60 staying below R = we can fall to 1.1680-60 sentiment is bullish {image}
1750-60 resistance
1680 key support
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,362
  • Oct 4, 2025 3:30am Oct 4, 2025 3:30am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} That's the life of a trader! I'm keeping my powder dry and waiting for the market to give me a clear signal. You're analyzing it perfectly!
day job kept me super busy this week but market mainly go sideways so didng miss much i guess. Fundi wise is bullish as govt shut down plus bad adr indicates another cut. However thought that was already the plan.

if bear wants to turn this bull trend… it does require some major changes. NATO and Russia conflicts?

Japan likely to have a female PM yen probably expected to fall on Monday. If Japan going to hike the rate in Oct maybe more bad news for the dollars
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,363
  • Oct 4, 2025 8:03am Oct 4, 2025 8:03am
Inserted Video


20 minutes that paint a picture of how bad things are in the US economy
  • #17,364
  • Oct 4, 2025 10:52am Oct 4, 2025 10:52am
Probably going to be a very flat/tough pair to trade until the govt. shutdown comes to an end and we can get govt. news/numbers again. Another thing that makes it tough to trade is seeing investors move out of the USD and into Gold (safe haven) but also at the same time stocks (risk on). This is a very rare occurrence. It seems investors cannot decide if things will get more bullish or bearish for the economy, but they all agree holding the USD is not a wise move right now. What does that mean for the EURUSD? Probably a lot of chop until a direction is realized and investors either go to safe havens or go to risk on.
  • #17,365
  • Oct 5, 2025 11:16am Oct 5, 2025 11:16am
Markets have been sideways for 2 months.

Think about this for a second....The top hedge funds from August - October were slightly negative with top performer's up just over 1%

Top 5 hedge funds are going to be lucky to make 15% this year which is barely over 1% a month.

Unless your skill is in top 1% you would have been better off putting your money in an index fund rather than trading fx.

These small trades you see people on these forms brag about making consistently aren't financially sustainable or worth it long term because of taxes and accounting.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #17,366
  • Oct 5, 2025 12:52pm Oct 5, 2025 12:52pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Markets have been sideways for 2 months. Think about this for a second....The top hedge funds from August - October were slightly negative with top performer's up just over 1% Top 5 hedge funds are going to be lucky to make 15% this year which is barely over 1% a month. Unless your skill is in top 1% you would have been better off putting your money in an index fund rather than trading fx. These small trades you see people on these forms brag about making consistently aren't financially sustainable or worth it long term because of taxes and accounting....
You get taxed on the index fund when you cash it out as well, so the tax discussion is pretty much moot. Unless we get into long term investing positions v. short term and tax implications in your local region, which can get messy.

I can't say what someone can or cannot make. Hedge funds are never the best to compare to, because they have large blocks of investments to move, which really handcuffs how much they can make. They don't have the super liquidity of a small investor, able to buy and sell on a whim.

By "the markets", if you mean FX, it is typically a much more sideways market than equities because it is just a battle to keep currencies in a range needed by the govt. This is a known factor of trading FX, but I choose FX because it moves smoother than futures and seems to adhere to price action better than Futures do. I am tempted to try out futures due to the time factor of living in the USA, but not until I can quit my fulltime job and focus on it a lot more.

As for the stock market, we have been hitting record highs recently and even the month of September, which is historically a bad month, was up big. So, that market is far from flat. The problem is, if your Index fund makes you 15% this year, you could have just bought the Magnificent 7, or even just Palantir a year ago and doubled or even tripled your money. So, even at that, a knowledgeable and informed investor can crush an Index Fund in returns. If you find pleasure in working in another field, and having income from that, then the Index fund is the way to go. If you want to be a trader, being able to beat Index funds is very possible.
  • #17,367
  • Oct 5, 2025 1:38pm Oct 5, 2025 1:38pm
There is a lot I could say about your post but I'll keep it short.

97% of the people who attempt to get into this wracket lose money.

For a majority of people they are better off investing in an index fund via their 401k or IRA.

Short term trades can only generate enough money to make it a career in one of two ways.

A. You have a big account and access to alot of cash.
B. Your applying a significant amount of leverage for scalping.

Option b almost winds up with traders getting burned for more money than they make in the long run.

I primarily work in MFT with a focus on AI integrated trading now but when I started I had access to cash.

Even with access to cash I still had to be very careful managing leverage and risk.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #17,368
  • Oct 5, 2025 1:55pm Oct 5, 2025 1:55pm
eur/usd dropped a bit along with Gold...... but look at usd/jpy go
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  • #17,369
  • Oct 5, 2025 1:58pm Oct 5, 2025 1:58pm
Quoting T721
eur/usd dropped a bit along with Gold...... but look at usd/jpy go {image}
Some yen cross pairs are already up over 200 pips pre market open on election news.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #17,370
  • Oct 5, 2025 4:52pm Oct 5, 2025 4:52pm
Quoting Jgcole83
There is a lot I could say about your post but I'll keep it short. 97% of the people who attempt to get into this wracket lose money. For a majority of people they are better off investing in an index fund via their 401k or IRA. Short term trades can only generate enough money to make it a career in one of two ways. A. You have a big account and access to alot of cash. B. Your applying a significant amount of leverage for scalping. Option b almost winds up with traders getting burned for more money than they make in the long run. I primarily work...
You are completely correct. Most people who try to trade end up failing. 97%, sure, that sounds reasonable.

Most people don't have what it takes to make it. And that is simply an iron clad determination, probably supported by no other way out, akin to burning the boats once the soldiers arrive on shore.

Everyone should first and foremost be investing into index/mutual funds with their first bit of money, into a retirement account that gives tax benefits. This must be done first and foremost. Anyone not doing this is making a big mistake and the younger you start, the better.

I have been at this 18 years. I considered stopping many times. Most anyone else would have done so. But because I never stopped, I am finally making progress. 18 years, I wouldn't recommend anyone do what I do, but it worked for me. It was my path.
  • #17,371
  • Oct 5, 2025 10:39pm Oct 5, 2025 10:39pm
The EURUSD opened down today on a stronger dollar, but the potential for a shutdown and the Fed's rate cuts remain, so we should see the market range today on this mix. Support at 1.1700/06 and 1.1683 should hold, and bulls must find a way out of the 1.1759 resistance so they can lead the price higher toward the 1.1779/85 zone. However, a failure might reignite selling below support, and the 1.1645 low should be defended by the buyers.

Daily volatility (range) 47 pips


Have a great week!

1H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,372
  • Oct 5, 2025 10:42pm Oct 5, 2025 10:42pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} day job kept me super busy this week but market mainly go sideways so didng miss much i guess. Fundi wise is bullish as govt shut down plus bad adr indicates another cut. However thought that was already the plan. if bear wants to turn this bull trend… it does require some major changes. NATO and Russia conflicts? Japan likely to have a female PM yen probably expected to fall on Monday. If Japan going to hike the rate in Oct maybe more bad news for the dollars
Yen might weaken more and then no cut from BoJ next year! USD flew on this.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,373
  • Oct 5, 2025 11:30pm Oct 5, 2025 11:30pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EURUSD opened down today on a stronger dollar, but the potential for a shutdown and the Fed's rate cuts remain, so we should see the market range today on this mix. Support at 1.1700/06 and 1.1683 should hold, and bulls must find a way out of the 1.1759 resistance so they can lead the price higher toward the 1.1779/85 zone. However, a failure might reignite selling below support, and the 1.1645 low should be defended by the buyers. Daily volatility (range) 47 pips Have a great week! 1H {image}
1700 1705 is good place to buy for potential 1780 1820 before maybe another drop. However if bear is strong to break 1700 1680 bear will go lower.
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,374
  • Oct 6, 2025 12:05am Oct 6, 2025 12:05am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1700 1705 is good place to buy for potential 1780 1820 before maybe another drop. However if bear is strong to break 1700 1680 bear will go lower. {image}
Might not see 1700/05 again. Gap should be filled and then will see!

I think its going up too!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,375
  • Oct 6, 2025 1:15am Oct 6, 2025 1:15am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Might not see 1700/05 again. Gap should be filled and then will see! I think its going up too!
so a potential fake move in frankfurt or maybe a breakdown?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,376
  • Oct 6, 2025 2:24am Oct 6, 2025 2:24am
Quoting josip
{quote} update EURUSD H4 trendlines we switched to H4 and...if we stay in red channel and resistance (R) wil be overcome (1.1750-60) we can rise to 1.18 key is 1.1750-60 staying below R = we can fall to 1.1680-60 sentiment is bullish {image}
update
EURUSD H4
trendlines

if the price stays below 1.1730-50 we can go to 1.1650
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #17,377
  • Oct 6, 2025 2:25am Oct 6, 2025 2:25am
Quoting johncen
{quote} so a potential fake move in frankfurt or maybe a breakdown?
Broke but Ill not do nothing...might scalp but will not go for a longer term trade.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,378
  • Oct 6, 2025 2:31am Oct 6, 2025 2:31am
In the short term H4
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all orders are closed in plus. Working 2009
Optinskijj All Time Profit: $2,322
  • #17,379
  • Oct 6, 2025 2:44am Oct 6, 2025 2:44am
French PM resigned! Wow
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,380
  • Oct 6, 2025 2:59am Oct 6, 2025 2:59am
Quoting johncen
French PM resigned! Wow
Might extend to 1630 now!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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