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The Swamp

  • #125,261
  • Oct 3, 2025 9:50am Oct 3, 2025 9:50am
We got 10k air traffic controllers, already short over 3k A T controllers. They are not being paid. What could possibly go wrong with not paying them?
They are the straw that broke the camel's back last time.
Day 3 and counting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,262
  • Oct 3, 2025 12:37pm Oct 3, 2025 12:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
no u.s. news.. what happens? {image}
if the FED don't have the government NFP report. It does look like they can use ADP and other private reports.
Yes, the Federal Reserve can use private-sector data like the ADP National Employment Report when making interest rate decisions, especially if official government data is unavailable due to circumstances like a government shutdown. While ADP data is considered less comprehensive and reliable than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)'s reports, a weak ADP reading can signal a slowing economy and pressure the Fed to cut rates, particularly if official jobs data is delayed.
Why the Fed might look to ADP

  1. Lack of Official Data:
    A government shutdown can prevent the release of crucial economic data, leaving the Fed without comprehensive official statistics.
  2. Preview of Official Data:
    The ADP report provides a preview of the BLS nonfarm payrolls report and gives policymakers a snapshot of the job market.
  3. Economic Signals:
    A significant downturn or slowdown in the private sector, as indicated by a weak ADP report, can raise concerns about the broader economy and influence the Fed's decision-making.

Limitations of ADP data

  1. Less Comprehensive:
    The ADP report only covers the private sector and does not capture government jobs, which can be significantly affected by a shutdown, notes Investopedia.
  2. Lower Reliability:
    Economists and analysts generally view ADP data as less reliable than the government-produced statistics from the BLS.
  3. Not a Replacement:
    ADP itself states that its report is not intended to replace official government statistics.

In summary, while the Fed prefers official BLS data, it will consider private reports like ADP to gauge the economic situation and make informed policy decisions, especially when key government data is unavailable.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,263
  • Oct 3, 2025 1:13pm Oct 3, 2025 1:13pm
The b/o window looks tighter This may be it Sunday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,264
  • Edited 2:27pm Oct 3, 2025 2:08pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
The b/o window looks tighter This may be it Sunday {image}
Friday mainly go sideways but bull took back 1720 which is not good for bear.
yea next week we may get a breakout. Then is 1.2 or 1.1557 i guess

if usdx closed below 97.7 for the week its a weak sign for usd bull
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,265
  • Oct 3, 2025 2:45pm Oct 3, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} Friday mainly go sideways but bull took back 1720 which is not good for bear. yea next week we may get a breakout. Then is 1.2 or 1.1557 i guess if usdx closed below 97.7 for the week its a weak sign for usd bull
let me know.. No COT No NFP
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,266
  • Oct 3, 2025 3:03pm Oct 3, 2025 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} let me know.. No COT No NFP
its likely to close the day/week on the bull side favouring more bullish action early next week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,267
  • Edited 5:45pm Oct 3, 2025 5:13pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} its likely to close the day/week on the bull side favouring more bullish action early next week
usdx closed the week at 97.72….
Still stuck in the middle waiting for breakout i guess
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,268
  • Oct 3, 2025 8:08pm Oct 3, 2025 8:08pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} usdx closed the week at 97.72…. Still stuck in the middle waiting for breakout i guess
I'm see the usd higher than I want also -96.68 would be good.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,269
  • Oct 3, 2025 10:11pm Oct 3, 2025 10:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm see the usd higher than I want also -96.68 would be good.
97.50 would be 1.1760ish. Which may confirm a breakout for the euro but 1.18 1.1820 in the way
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,270
  • Oct 5, 2025 4:06pm Oct 5, 2025 4:06pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} 97.50 would be 1.1760ish. Which may confirm a breakout for the euro but 1.18 1.1820 in the way
gap down
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,271
  • Oct 5, 2025 4:10pm Oct 5, 2025 4:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
The b/o window looks tighter This may be it Sunday {image}
near 1719.4
Will it support/bounce, or sustain below?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,272
  • Oct 5, 2025 7:17pm Oct 5, 2025 7:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} near 1719.4 Will it support/bounce, or sustain below? {image}
could still bounce above 1700?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,273
  • Oct 5, 2025 7:20pm Oct 5, 2025 7:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} near 1719.4 Will it support/bounce, or sustain below? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB

About the time Asia comes back from Lunch it should vote shortly
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,274
  • Oct 5, 2025 7:31pm Oct 5, 2025 7:31pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} could still bounce above 1700?
1707 expires shortly.. below 1719.9 looks bearish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,275
  • Oct 5, 2025 7:53pm Oct 5, 2025 7:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1707 expires shortly.. below 1719.9 looks bearish
it is bearish as the gap remain opened for now and appeared no attempt to close it.

thought we will go up first this week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,276
  • Oct 5, 2025 8:25pm Oct 5, 2025 8:25pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} it is bearish as the gap remain opened for now and appeared no attempt to close it. thought we will go up first this week
Yeah being below 1755 leans that way..
But if it takes it back expect a rise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,277
  • Oct 5, 2025 11:31pm Oct 5, 2025 11:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah being below 1755 leans that way.. But if it takes it back expect a rise.
will see if bull can close the gap pre London / early London session
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,278
  • Oct 6, 2025 3:13am Oct 6, 2025 3:13am
Quoting johncen
{quote} will see if bull can close the gap pre London / early London session
wow what a drop! I thought we will close the gap and up first.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,279
  • Oct 6, 2025 3:15am Oct 6, 2025 3:15am
Now if we close the day below 1680. I guess maybe a breakdown and we should expect to see 1580 next
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,280
  • Oct 6, 2025 3:52am Oct 6, 2025 3:52am
anything that comes out of europe is always a risk. I think the selling will accelerate and we will see sub 1.16 today
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