Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Analytical Forecasts for UK Interest Rates in 2025–2026


The UK’s interest rate trajectory remains a critical point of focus for investors and traders as the economy navigates persistent inflation, shifting trade relationships, and a cautious monetary policy stance from the Bank of England. In 2025, and extending into 2026, expert forecasts vary significantly, reflecting uncertainty in both domestic and global markets. In this article, we will examine institutional projections, market expectations, and key macroeconomic drivers influencing potential rate adjustments.

UK Interest Rate Landscape
The UK's interest rate landscape has undergone significant transformations over the past few years. From the end of 2021 to the middle of 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 5.25%—the highest in UK interest rates history since 2008. The decision to elevate interest rates from near-zero levels was primarily driven by the need to counteract rising inflation, which has emerged as a considerable threat to the UK's economic stability.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Bounces Back, USD/CAD Maintains Bullish Consolidation


GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.3325. USD/CAD is showing positive signs and might aim for more gains above 1.3960.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

- The British Pound started a recovery wave above 1.3370 and 1.3400.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3390 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CAD rallied above 1.3880 and 1.3920 before the bears appeared.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3915 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.3530 after a decent increase. The British Pound traded below 1.3450 to again move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.
The pair even traded below 1.3400 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near 1.3325. A low was formed near 1.3323 and the pair is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.
There was a fresh upside above 1.3370 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3528 swing high to the 1.3323 low. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3390.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against the Odds


Today, the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is trading close to a new all-time high, having opened Monday above 6,675 points. This reflects continued optimism among market participants despite factors such as:

→ The risk of a U.S. government shutdown on 1 October.
Today, President Trump will meet with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to try to prevent a halt to government funding. However, Reuters reports that chances of reaching an agreement are slim. At the same time, Bank of America analysts remain calm, noting that a shutdown would shave only around 0.1% off GDP per week, and historically such closures have had little impact on financial markets.

→ Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance at the September Federal Reserve meeting.
Nevertheless, most market participants expect the Fed to make another move towards cutting rates at its next meeting on 29 October. The publication of the PCE index on Friday increased this likelihood, as the figures came in line with forecasts, reducing the risk of a renewed inflation surge.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Tesla (TSLA) Share Price Rises Ahead of Earnings Report


On 16 September, we noted signs of a strong market for Tesla (TSLA) shares, including:
→ The price remaining above the psychological level of $400;
→ Reaching the highest levels since late January.
We also identified an ascending channel and suggested that the long-term outlook remained optimistic, although a correction could not be ruled out.
Since then, TSLA shares have stabilised near the upper boundary of the channel, holding above the $400 level. On Friday, they were among the market leaders, rising by more than 4%. This brings the gain since the start of September to around +30%.

Why Are TSLA Shares Rising?
Key factors supporting a bullish outlook include:
→ Sentiment ahead of the quarterly Production and Deliveries report, expected this week. According to recent forecasts, actual figures could exceed expectations (although still showing a decline compared to the previous year).
→ Target price upgrades. Dan Ives of Wedbush, one of Tesla’s most prominent bulls, last week raised his target price to $600 — the highest on Wall Street — citing substantial potential in AI and robotaxi development.
→ The “Musk factor”: Discussions around Elon Musk stepping away from politics are seen as a long-term positive driver.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Hammer Candlestick Pattern: Definition and Trading Signals



Technical analysis is a cornerstone of trading, relying on historical price movements to anticipate future trends. Among its many tools and chart formations, the hammer candlestick pattern is a popular signal of potential reversals. This article explores the meaning of the hammer candlestick pattern and how traders can interpret it on forex, stock, and cryptocurrency* charts.

What Is a Hammer Candle?
A hammer is a single-candle pattern that typically appears at the end of a downtrend, signalling a possible shift to bullish momentum. Recognised by its small body and long lower shadow, it suggests that sellers pushed prices lower during the session, but buyers regained control before the close.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysis of MU Shares Following Earnings Report


Memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology (MU) published a positive financial report for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 on 23 September:
→ Q4 Revenue: Actual = $11.32 billion, up 46% compared with the same period last year.
→ Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): Actual = $3.03 (analysts’ expectations = $2.87).

The main driver behind these strong results was heightened demand for high-performance memory needed for data centres and AI model training. Micron also published an optimistic outlook, forecasting revenue of between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion in the next quarter.
Despite strong results and guidance, the share price reaction in the first week after publication has been moderate. Trading volumes were significantly above average, yet the price did not rise. Why?
1 → It is worth noting that Micron shares have nearly doubled in value since the start of 2025, which may indicate “bull fatigue.”
2 → A significant portion of the positive expectations tied to the AI boom is already priced into the current valuation.
Technical analysis shows more bearish signals.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Prices Plunge from Historic Peak


As shown by the XAU/USD chart, yesterday gold prices reached a new all-time high, surpassing the $3,870 level for the first time. This rise was supported by concerns over the high likelihood of a US government shutdown.
According to media reports:
→ Vice President J.D. Vance stated that the US is heading towards a government shutdown, blaming the Democrats.
→ “We have very large disagreements,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Fears over the potential impact of a shutdown boosted demand for safe-haven assets, including gold. However, today XAU/USD has dropped sharply. What might this mean?


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a Doji Candle and How May It Be Used in Trading?



A Doji candle is a technical analysis tool that reflects periods of market indecision. It can provide insights when co
nsidered alongside other patterns or technical indicators. Traders often observe Doji candles when trading stocks, commodities, and currencies. This article explains the characteristics of Doji candlesticks and outlines the different types commonly seen on price charts.

What Is a Doji Candle?
A Doji is a pattern that consists of a single candle. It looks very different from other candlesticks; therefore, traders of any level of experience can determine it on a price chart. The Doji has a tiny body comprising equal or almost equal open and close prices and long shadows. What does a Doji candlestick mean? A short body informs traders about the indecision of buyers and sellers as none of them can drive the market. Long shadows reflect a market uncertainty. The longer the shadows, the more significant the market uncertainties.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Silver Price: October Kicks Off with a 14-Year High


As the XAG/USD chart shows, today silver prices climbed above the $47.50 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011. Since the beginning of the month, silver has appreciated by approximately 15%.
Why is silver rising?
According to media reports, demand for so-called safe-haven assets has intensified amid the US government shutdown, which officially began on 1 October. President Trump has placed the blame on Democrats, while maintaining optimism that the shutdown could be leveraged to streamline the work of federal agencies.
Trading Economics further highlights that the Silver Institute forecasts a deficit in the global silver market. Production is expected at 844 million ounces – around 100 million ounces short of demand, which continues to be driven by the expansion of solar energy, consumer electronics, and data centres.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Other Pharmaceutical Stocks Rise Following Trump’s Decision


According to media reports, US President Donald Trump launched a website allowing Americans to purchase medicines directly. He announced that Pfizer would offer some of its drugs on this platform and introduce new medicines to the US market at reduced prices. Trump added that his administration is working with other companies, including Eli Lilly, to reach “similar agreements.”
Reports state that Pfizer’s deal with the Trump administration will enable patients to receive significant discounts. In return, the company will receive a three-year exemption from any tariffs.
The news pushed pharmaceutical stocks to the top of yesterday’s gainers list:
→ Pfizer Inc. (PFE) rose by 6.8%
→ Merck & Co Inc. (MRK) rose by 6.8%
→ Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) rose by 5.0%


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro Balances at Strategic Levels: Focus on Macroeconomic Data


The euro is showing mixed dynamics: EUR/USD is consolidating near strategic levels, while EUR/CAD continues its upward movement, supported by Canadian dollar weakness and fluctuations in oil prices. This performance comes amid anticipation of key economic releases: in Europe, the market is focused on PMI and inflation figures, while in the US attention is on private sector employment reports and manufacturing indicators. The threat of a US government shutdown adds uncertainty, heightening investor caution. The direction of further movement will depend on the balance of signals on both sides of the Atlantic: stronger eurozone inflation and softer US data may support the euro, whereas weak European numbers combined with resilient figures from the US/Canada could trigger a deeper correction.
EUR/USD


Last week, EUR/USD found support near 1.1645 and managed to climb back above 1.1700. The bullish momentum observed over three consecutive days has now slowed somewhat. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests potential growth towards 1.1780–1.1820, provided 1.1700 holds as support. Should euro sellers succeed in securing a move below 1.1700, the pair might once again test the recent low near 1.1645.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Fresh Increase While USD/CHF Corrects Lower


EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1700. USD/CHF declined from 0.8000 and is now struggling to stay above 0.7945.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today
- The Euro started a decent upward move from 1.1650 against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1700 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CHF declined below the 0.7985 and 0.7965 support levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7965 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1650. The Euro cleared 1.1685 to decrease bearish pressure and move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1700. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1720. It opened the doors for a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1818 swing high to the 1.1645 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Hidden Divergence vs Regular Divergence: Basics and Examples



Divergence is a popular tool for spotting potential shifts in market direction. While the general principles for identifying divergence are straightforward, distinguishing between regular and hidden forms can be more complex. In this article, we outline the main differences between regular and hidden divergence and demonstrate how traders may interpret their signals using practical examples.

What Is Divergence?
In technical analysis, the term divergence has two meanings. You may have heard of the MACD indicator. It’s an abbreviation for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. In this case, divergence stands for the movement of two lines relative to each other – they move away from each other. Convergence occurs when the lines move closer together.

The second meaning relates to the topic we will discuss in this article – how the price and the indicator relate to each other. Traders look for divergence between the price and an oscillator, like the relative strength index, stochastic, awesome oscillator, or MACD. It occurs when the market forms an extreme high or low, but the indicator doesn’t follow.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dollar Trades Mixed: ADP Disappoints, Shutdown Adds Risks


The US dollar showed a mixed performance: a weak ADP employment report (-32k versus the forecast of growth) heightened doubts over the resilience of the labour market, while uncertainty surrounding a US government shutdown added further pressure on the greenback. Markets are pricing in risks of delayed publication of key economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the coming months.
In the USD/JPY pair, the dollar continues to lose ground, falling towards the 147.00 level, where short-term support is located. The pressure is reinforced by a combination of weak US data and stronger demand for the yen as a so-called safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is consolidating after climbing to 1.3950: the Canadian dollar found support amid the release of business activity data and fluctuations in oil prices, which remain a key driver for the pair.
Near-term moves in the major currency pairs will largely depend on the balance of the news flow and investor reaction to political uncertainty in the United States.

USD/JPY


At the end of September, dollar buyers in the USD/JPY pair almost managed to test the critical resistance level near 150.00. However, the slowdown in bullish momentum allowed dollar bears to seize the initiative, forming a bearish harami candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests a potential continuation of the downward movement towards the key range of 146.00–146.50. Bulls, however, may attempt to push the pair back into the 147.90–148.20 zone.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Hang Seng Index Hits 4-Year High


As the chart shows, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) climbed above the 27,300 mark today – for the first time since summer 2021. The bullish momentum has been supported in part by corporate news. According to media reports:
→ Shares of Chinese EV maker NIO Inc. rose by around 5% following news that vehicle deliveries had increased by 64.1% year-on-year.
→ Shares of Ascletis Pharma Inc. jumped 12.8% after the company announced a share buyback programme.
→ Alibaba shares surged 4% after JPMorgan raised its price target by more than 40%, citing AI industry development and strong user engagement.
Since 1 September, the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) has gained over 7%.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Natural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Month High


As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices have risen above $3.600/MMBtu for the first time since mid-July.
According to media reports, the rise in gas prices has been driven by:
→ Weather models forecasting colder conditions, suggesting the heating season may begin earlier than expected;
→ An EBW Analytics Group note highlighting short-covering activity in the market, which has accelerated the rally (a short squeeze effect).
At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How May Traders Keep a Trading Journal?


Although some traders assume that keeping a trading journal is useful only for beginners, in reality, it is a proven method for refining strategies at any level. A trading journal is a structured tool for logging trades, tracking strategies, and evaluating outcomes. By recording entry and exit points, trade rationales, and results, traders gain valuable insights into their decision-making process.
In this article, we will explore how journals may help traders monitor progress and identify recurring patterns. We will also review the most common types of journals, including traditional notebooks, trading journal software, and online trading journals, highlighting their advantages for maintaining accurate trade records.

Types of Trading Journals
Here are three trading journal examples. You can choose a format that meets your requirements, whether it’s handwritten notes in a notebook, a trading journal online spreadsheet, or a specialised app. An important part is to be consistent in recording your activity...

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The S&P 500 index remains positive against all odds


We noted on 29 September that, amid the US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and highlighted factors supporting further growth.
Today, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning the price rose above 6 740 points. This confirms the continued optimism among market participants. Today this is supported by news related to the creators of ChatGPT.
According to media reports, OpenAI:
→ has reached a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth around $6.6 billion;
→ is expanding cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, which is expected to sustain the company’s high growth rate.
Thus, OpenAI’s successes are boosting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming earnings season.
These and other positive developments might have been overshadowed by the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics is closed due to the shutdown.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Hold Firm, More Upside Moves On The Way?


AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.6550 and 0.6575. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5840.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

· The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.6575 against the US Dollar.
· There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 0.6615 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
· NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5800 pivot level.
· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5815 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.6520. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.6550 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6575 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.6630. A high was formed near 0.6628 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below 0.6600.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

News from France Weighs on European Financial Markets


According to Reuters, France’s new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, unexpectedly resigned on Monday just hours after appointing his new cabinet.
This news has underscored the deepening political crisis in France and placed significant pressure on European financial markets – this morning:
→ The euro is weakening. The EUR/USD rate has fallen below 1.1660 and is near September’s low.
→ European shares are falling. The French stock index CAC 40 (France 40 on FXOpen) has dropped by around 2%.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.