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  • #161
  • Edited 10:07am Dec 5, 2006 9:52am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting coolshades
tk,

did you take the short on gbpusd and eurusd today?
Yes on GBP/USD. Short at 1.9769. 264 PIP profit taken from previous trade.

Also took a 50 PIP loss on the whipsaw when entering this trade this morning. This is completely my fault. Being human, I tried to anticipate the entry. Again, anticipation is something that cannot be back tested.

I have been trading this system for a long time and still make these silly mistakes. Again, emotions and psychology are the most difficult part of trading any system. Drives me nuts.

You are making correct calls for this system. Excellent...

Tkimble
  • #162
  • Dec 5, 2006 10:11am Dec 5, 2006 10:11am
Quoting tkimble
Yes on GBP/USD. Short at 1.9769. 264 PIP profit taken from previous trade.

Also took a 50 PIP loss on the whipsaw when entering this trade this morning. This is completely my fault. Being human, I tried to anticipate the entry. Again, anticipation is something that cannot be back tested.

I have been trading this system for a long time and still make these silly mistakes. Again, emotions and psychology are the most difficult part of trading any system. Drives me nuts.

You are making correct calls for this system. Excellent...

Tkimble
With the current gain of 45 pips on this trade, I am reducing my stop loss exposure to 30 PIPS or 1.9799...
  • #163
  • Dec 5, 2006 10:20am Dec 5, 2006 10:20am
The GBP/USD has been trading in a very narrow range since 1 Dec 06 (1600 GMT). Narrow trading ranges invite drawdowns for this trading system. The best cure is to trade through the drawdown back to profit resumption. I have also found that each time I trade through a drawdown, my confidence grows.

Market has broken to the downside today. Hopefully beginning of a new downward trend.

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
  • #164
  • Dec 5, 2006 10:48am Dec 5, 2006 10:48am
tk, cld you explain the line in bold

thks

Quoting tkimble
The GBP/USD has been trading in a very narrow range since 1 Dec 06 (1600 GMT). Narrow trading ranges invite drawdowns for this trading system. The best cure is to trade through the drawdown back to profit resumption. I have also found that each time I trade through a drawdown, my confidence grows.

Market has broken to the downside today. Hopefully beginning of a new downward trend.

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
  • #165
  • Dec 5, 2006 12:10pm Dec 5, 2006 12:10pm
Quoting coolshades
tk, cld you explain the line in bold

thks
All systems eventually create an account value drawdown. Drawdowns are sustained periods of predominately losing trades. With each and every closely occuring lossing trade, a trader can begin to lose confidence in themselve, the trading system or both. The only cure for this feeling, which likewise cannot be measured through back testing, is to continue following the system until a more profitable string of trades can be achieved. Nothing builds a trader's confidence more the winning trades and making money.

This is what I meant by the statements you have identified with bold letters.

Hope this helps,

Tkimble
  • #166
  • Edited 10:31pm Dec 5, 2006 10:09pm | Edited 10:31pm
Using this system can be profitable, but the entry points can fluctuate back and forth making for a lot of 5-10 pip losses. The potential for a system like this is greatest in a long term trend, should one be established.

Comes the day when the $ starts to strengthen, this system can keep u in a trade for a long time. This week, was not a good week for this type of system. In a sideways market, that back and forth across the 50 line is like Chinese water torture.

Today was a disaster for this system if u followed the EUR and GBP. The criterias were met several times for both pairs-probably added up to over 100 pips lost. You theoretically might have to go thru days of trading like this before getting in on a trend. What if there was 2 weeks of sideways markets-your account would get shredded.

Without an indicator to keep u out of sideways markets, the system won't work in the long run. And if TKimble is gonna post winning trades, he should post the losers too.
  • #167
  • Dec 6, 2006 1:16am Dec 6, 2006 1:16am
if u go back and read the tread u will find out that EUR doesnt work well with this system

GBP/USD and USD/CHF are the best pairs o trade with this system.
But u right there were 2 or 3 signals to enter the trade yesterday on GBP/USD . I entered the trade when the first signal appeared... arround 11 am yesterday GMT when RSI was below 50 for the first time in the last days ...

But soon after this a long signal was visible( RSI has gone above 50) but i was not in front of computer to enter this...so i am still short now ..and i am on profit...if the trend continues to go down i will be lucky and be in profit... if goes up again ill lose ..

But maybe tkimble will tell us from his experience what to do in sideways markets ? maybe we need to wait more and let a new trend to be more visible on 4 hours and 1 day charts .....and only after that to enter the trade..
  • #168
  • Dec 6, 2006 1:25am Dec 6, 2006 1:25am
and another thing... i`m still on short today cos i forgot to put yesterday a 50 pip stop loss....the 50 pip stop loss would have been hit .... anyway i trade virtual i test this system for the moment.

so we must find a solution for sideways markets ...
  • #169
  • Dec 6, 2006 3:10am Dec 6, 2006 3:10am
news

tk has mentioned he will not post either winning or losing trades.. its all there in his posts


Quoting NewstraderFX
Using this system can be profitable, but the entry points can fluctuate back and forth making for a lot of 5-10 pip losses. The potential for a system like this is greatest in a long term trend, should one be established.

Comes the day when the $ starts to strengthen, this system can keep u in a trade for a long time. This week, was not a good week for this type of system. In a sideways market, that back and forth across the 50 line is like Chinese water torture.

Today was a disaster for this system if u followed the EUR and GBP. The criterias were met several times for both pairs-probably added up to over 100 pips lost. You theoretically might have to go thru days of trading like this before getting in on a trend. What if there was 2 weeks of sideways markets-your account would get shredded.

Without an indicator to keep u out of sideways markets, the system won't work in the long run. And if TKimble is gonna post winning trades, he should post the losers too.
  • #170
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:08am Dec 6, 2006 5:08am
Quoting nad24
and another thing... i`m still on short today cos i forgot to put yesterday a 50 pip stop loss....the 50 pip stop loss would have been hit .... anyway i trade virtual i test this system for the moment.

so we must find a solution for sideways markets ...
To be fair to tkimble though Nad, thats not a test of the system as such, since you didn't follow two key rules at least for that trade anyway. I suspect you're not trading live, since you would never leave your terminal, and certainly (well I wouldn't anyway), leave your screen without a stop in place.
  • #171
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:15am Dec 6, 2006 5:15am
Quoting rogerha
To be fair to tkimble though Nad, thats not a test of the system as such, since you didn't follow two key rules at least for that trade anyway. I suspect you're not trading live, since you would never leave your terminal, and certainly (well I wouldn't anyway), leave your screen without a stop in place.
Sorry Nad, just saw that you are not trading live. However this is the same old argument with trend following trading systems, 'If I could just keep out of the sideways markets'. The trader that can do this with any level of consistency without affecting the performance of the profitability of the strategy is certainly donig well, and I would like to hear from him.

It proves through much of what tkimble has been saying. All (that I have had experience of) strategies have drawbacks and subsequent periods of drawdowns. Therefore, success comes down not to the system, but to the psychology of the trader themselves, providing of course your strategy comes right in the end.

I have backtested this strategy over a year on Euro Futures. Its profitable, it *always* comes right in the end. However that doesntt mean everybody can make money with it. I am in the process of forward testing it now on historical data (I can do tick replay in e-signal). My method of overcoming some of the emotion involved is to automate entry and exit based on an EA or similar. Its my method of getting around pulling the trigger and not being able to be disciplined with the stop. Its not infallable but I find it helps me a lot.
  • #172
  • Dec 6, 2006 6:45am Dec 6, 2006 6:45am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Using this system can be profitable, but the entry points can fluctuate back and forth making for a lot of 5-10 pip losses. The potential for a system like this is greatest in a long term trend, should one be established.

Comes the day when the $ starts to strengthen, this system can keep u in a trade for a long time. This week, was not a good week for this type of system. In a sideways market, that back and forth across the 50 line is like Chinese water torture.

Today was a disaster for this system if u followed the EUR and GBP. The criterias were met several times for both pairs-probably added up to over 100 pips lost. You theoretically might have to go thru days of trading like this before getting in on a trend. What if there was 2 weeks of sideways markets-your account would get shredded.

Without an indicator to keep u out of sideways markets, the system won't work in the long run. And if TKimble is gonna post winning trades, he should post the losers too.
Read my recent post carefully. I have posted losers as well as winners since I previewed this system at this forum. What I will not post is my complete history of trading because it will establish false expectations for other traders due to varying emotional and psychological preordained preferences. Not all traders can trades this system successful becuase of varying degress of temperments, commitment and traders psychology.

Also, any trend following system will lose money in flat markets. What you have termed as today's "Disasters" I simply view as the cost of trading this system. I posted that I had experienced a 50 PIP loss yesterday. As we speak, the 50 PIP loss has been recaptured and another 50 PIPs added. This is the nature of this system. The idea is to minimize your losses and maximize your gains.

I also simultaneously trade a daily scalping system to offset any choppy days like we experience yesterday where by I seek to gain 10 PIPS per day. Attention to the daily scalping system is possible becuase of the amount of free time that the trending system allows.

Thanks for you posting and debate...

Tkimble
  • #173
  • Dec 6, 2006 6:50am Dec 6, 2006 6:50am
Quoting nad24
if u go back and read the tread u will find out that EUR doesnt work well with this system

GBP/USD and USD/CHF are the best pairs o trade with this system.
But u right there were 2 or 3 signals to enter the trade yesterday on GBP/USD . I entered the trade when the first signal appeared... arround 11 am yesterday GMT when RSI was below 50 for the first time in the last days ...

But soon after this a long signal was visible( RSI has gone above 50) but i was not in front of computer to enter this...so i am still short now ..and i am on profit...if the trend continues to go down i will be lucky and be in profit... if goes up again ill lose ..

But maybe tkimble will tell us from his experience what to do in sideways markets ? maybe we need to wait more and let a new trend to be more visible on 4 hours and 1 day charts .....and only after that to enter the trade..
One way to avoid the choppiness during flat markets is to only execute a Long trade when the RSI is above 50 and the closing price is above the 50 SMA High. The opposite would be to only execute a Short trade when the RSI is below 50 and the closing prices is below the 50 SMA Low.
  • #174
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:02am Dec 6, 2006 7:02am
hi tkimble, nice to see you...and thanks for your fast answer
  • #175
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:03am Dec 6, 2006 7:03am
I have attached three pairs from yesterday. The psychological problem is if one can stomach the reversals as you have said. From what I know, to be safe, the closing candle should be above/below all MAs along with the RSI 50 line.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Examples.zip   102 KB | 460 downloads
  • #176
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:25am Dec 6, 2006 7:25am
Quoting nad24
hi tkimble, nice to see you...and thanks for your fast answer
No problem. I really enjoy this forum because of what I have learned and hopefully what I can contribute.

Market has again broken further to the downside. Hope it keeps on descending. This system has demonstrated real earnings of almost 1200 PIPS since I started posting my system almost two weeks ago.

Thanks for all the ideas.

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
  • #177
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:33am Dec 6, 2006 7:33am
Quoting rogerha
Sorry Nad, just saw that you are not trading live. However this is the same old argument with trend following trading systems, 'If I could just keep out of the sideways markets'. The trader that can do this with any level of consistency without affecting the performance of the profitability of the strategy is certainly donig well, and I would like to hear from him.

It proves through much of what tkimble has been saying. All (that I have had experience of) strategies have drawbacks and subsequent periods of drawdowns. Therefore, success comes down not to the system, but to the psychology of the trader themselves, providing of course your strategy comes right in the end.

I have backtested this strategy over a year on Euro Futures. Its profitable, it *always* comes right in the end. However that doesntt mean everybody can make money with it. I am in the process of forward testing it now on historical data (I can do tick replay in e-signal). My method of overcoming some of the emotion involved is to automate entry and exit based on an EA or similar. Its my method of getting around pulling the trigger and not being able to be disciplined with the stop. Its not infallable but I find it helps me a lot.
Excellent idea.

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
  • #178
  • Dec 6, 2006 8:05am Dec 6, 2006 8:05am
Quoting tkimble
Excellent idea.

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
just reading thro this....
On the 30M now 5sma @1.9643 and IF spot was on 1.9635 $ RSI was under 50..would that trigger a short?
is it as simple as that?
TP you have said 200pips...
SL?

M$M
  • #179
  • Dec 6, 2006 8:14am Dec 6, 2006 8:14am
Quoting Million$Man
just reading thro this....
On the 30M now 5sma @1.9643 and IF spot was on 1.9635 $ RSI was under 50..would that trigger a short?
is it as simple as that?
TP you have said 200pips...
SL?

M$M
Current short was triggered on 5 Dec at 900 GMT at a price of 1.9748. This short was stopped out on 5 Dec 1430 GMT with a 50 PIP loss. Resumed the same trade since none of the 30 min bars closed above the 50 MA High. Currently short at 1.9748 with a with a 94 tick profit as I type.

It is very simple and simplicity is where I find most of my profits...

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
  • #180
  • Dec 6, 2006 8:25am Dec 6, 2006 8:25am
Quoting tkimble
Current short was triggered on 5 Dec at 900 GMT at a price of 1.9748. This short was stopped out on 5 Dec 1430 GMT with a 50 PIP loss. Resumed the same trade since none of the 30 min bars closed above the 50 MA High. Currently short at 1.9748 with a with a 94 tick profit as I type.

It is very simple and simplicity is where I find most of my profits...

Happy Trading,

Tkimble
Hi Tkimble,

I am following your system, even though I can only check it at the endo of the day. I noticed the "go short" notice last night in the cable and jumped into it. Do you have an EA that gets you in and out your trades...or do you do it manually?
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