What happen in the market today?

XTI/USD Slips Amid News of OPEC+ Production Hikes

WTI crude oil prices plunged to a low of 61.91 on Tuesday, September 30, extending their decline since Monday. Oil prices reached a high of 63.09, a low of 61.91, and a close of 62.22 on FXOpen's platform on September 30.

Fundamental factors influencing the XTI/USD oil price. OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by around 137,000 barrels per day starting in October 2025 as an adjustment to previous voluntary cuts. There are indications that OPEC+ may increase production even more aggressively in November, due to market pressure on high prices and a desire to maintain market share. Increased production could raise concerns about oversupply—the risk of a supply surplus if demand does not grow significantly.

Global oil demand is still growing, but at a moderate pace. In a Reuters survey, many analysts predicted that rising supply would limit the upside in oil prices. The EIA report stated that US oil production is expected to decline by 1% over the next period. The 2025 report shows significant uncertainty about the future supply-demand balance, with factors such as energy policy, technological change, and geopolitical dynamics potentially contributing to risks.

Oil inventories in major consuming countries are at relatively low levels, supporting the sentiment that supply is tight in the short term. However, if OPEC+ and other producers actually increase production significantly, downward price pressure is very likely if stocks increase more rapidly than anticipated.

Other geopolitical disruptions could also trigger sudden price spikes, for example, if there is conflict in oil-producing regions, such as attacks on infrastructure. US interest rates, the value of the USD, and macroeconomic conditions are also of concern, as they can affect oil demand and investor appeal. When the USD strengthens, pressure on commodity prices usually arises. Environmental policies and long-term energy transitions could also limit future oil growth.

The bearish scenario is slightly sideways due to rising OPEC+ production and moderate demand. If the support zone around 64.80 is broken, the price could fall to 62.00. If the price successfully breaks through the 62.00 support level, the next target is near the lower band at 61.40. The bullish scenario is reversed if there are production disruptions or OPEC+ chooses to maintain production. If it can break the resistance zone of 66.50-67.00, the target could reach 69.00-70.00.

The US economic data releases that investors are focusing on today include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall by 52,000. The manufacturing PMI is also in focus, which is expected to rise from the previous revision. These data releases could impact the USD, which in turn could affect oil prices.

GBP/JPY extends decline amid rumors of hawkish BoJ stance

The cross pair of GBP/JPY drew a bearish candle on October 1, extending the decline from the previous two days. The pair drew three consecutive bearish candles amidst pressure from the BoJ to raise interest rates. GBP/JPY formed a high of 199.213, a low of 197.905, and a close of 198.112 on FXOpen's platform. This decline widened the upper and lower bands, reflecting increased market volatility.

Pressure for a rate hike by the BoJ is increasing. Normally dovish BoJ members are now stating that a rate hike is increasingly necessary. Additionally, at the last meeting, there was an internal debate about a potential hike, although the policy rate currently remains at 0.5%. These rumors appear to have supported the yen's strength, as rising interest rates support the Japanese Yen.

Japanese economic data, in the Tankan survey, showed optimism among manufacturers rose to +14, the highest level since 2024. This positive sentiment supports expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, potentially strengthening the yen.

In the UK, there is pressure on the UK economy from fiscal concerns and moderate growth prospects, as the Bank of England (BoE) has signaled caution regarding stimulus or interest rate cuts. Weak UK economic data or market doubts about the growth outlook could put pressure on the GBP. Alternatively, if the interest differential between the UK and Japan narrows or reverses, the yen may become more attractive to investors. This capital inflow could shift to higher-yielding assets in Japan, putting pressure on GBP/JPY.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is still considered a safe-haven currency during global market turmoil. A US government shutdown could trigger investors to seek other perceived safe havens, such as the JPY and CHF.

Overall, the divergence bias between Japanese and UK fundamentals tends to favor potential GBPJPY weakness, or at least stronger downside pressure than upside. Increasingly hawkish pressure from the Bank of Japan and relatively strong Japanese data are risk factors for GBPJPY. On the other hand, the UK hasn't shown strong fundamentals to drive significant GBP appreciation.

The medium-term projection predicts a range for October's movement between a high of 202,000 and a low of 194,000. If GBPJPY can break through the resistance at 201,200 with strong volume, there is room for an increase to around 202,000. A breakout of the support at 197.9 could open the door to a move to 195,000.

Today's fundamental news focus is on US jobless claims. While not directly related, the strength or weakness can impact other currencies.

USD/JPY rebounds after four consecutive days of decline

On October 2, the USD/JPY drew a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. After four consecutive days of decline, the pair rebounded near the lower band. The price formed a high of 147.516, a low of 146.601, and a close of 147.267 on FXOpen's platform.

The USD/JPY pair is heavily influenced by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, global risk appetite, and important economic data. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, this tends to strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, a dovish stance tends to weaken the US dollar. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting.

The recent US government shutdown has dampened confidence in the dollar, allowing other safe-haven currencies, such as the yen, to strengthen. The shutdown could hinder important economic data, such as the NFP, and further weaken the USD.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has signaled that it could begin tightening policy. The prospect of a BoJ interest rate hike or policy divergence supports the Japanese yen, putting pressure on the USD/JPY. The Tankan survey for the industrial sector shows optimism that could strengthen the yen.

The Japanese yen is vulnerable to intervention. If the USD/JPY is deemed excessive by Japanese authorities, for example, above 150 or more, the risk of verbal or actual intervention by the government or the BoJ to support the yen will increase.

Some of today's fundamental news on the ForexFactory economic calendar includes the BOJ Governor Ueda Speaks in Osaka, where he will meet with business leaders. The market will assess and look for subtle clues regarding Japan's economic and monetary outlook. Meanwhile, the US will also release economic data including the ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Rate, Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), and average hourly earnings, which could provide signals about the US economy.

If the actual ISM Services PMI figure is stronger than expected and rises above 50, indicating US economic resilience, this could increase expectations of a Fed rate hike, thus strengthening the USD. Comments from Fed officials will be closely monitored for clues to the future path of monetary policy. A hawkish statement could support the USD. Conversely, a dovish statement could weaken the USD. The USD and JPY both act as safe-haven currencies amid increasing global uncertainty.

A bullish scenario based on fundamentals: if the US ISM Services PMI data is strong and higher than expected, it will support the USD, leading to an increase in USDJPY. A bearish scenario: if the US ISM Services PMI data is significantly weaker than expected or signals a US economic slowdown, it will weaken the USD, leading to a decline in USDJPY.

The forecast daily range for USDJPY today is estimated at the pivot level in the range of 147.20 - 147.30, with major resistance at 147.80 - 148.50, with a critical level at 148.80. The main support is estimated in the range of 146.50 - 146.80, with a critical support level of 146.00.

Gap Up at the Open of the GBP/JPY Pair

At the market open today, Monday, October 6th, the GBP/JPY pair experienced a gap up, with the opening price significantly higher than Friday's close. The price opened at 200,584, down from Friday's closing price of 198,743. The gap even crossed the middle band and approached the upper band. On Friday, October 3rd, 2025, GBP/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle, ending the previous four days of consecutive declines. The price formed a high of 198,869, a low of 197,743, and a close of 198,714, according to FXOpen's platform.

The volatility of the GBP/JPY pair, also nicknamed "The Beast," is driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as global risk sentiment. Sterling is currently under pressure due to concerns about the budget deficit (public borrowing) and the potential for future BoE interest rate cuts. If the BoE becomes dovish or indicates an interest rate cut, the GBP tends to weaken against other currencies, including the JPY. UK PMI data slowed, labor surveys weakened, and fiscal policy concerns, particularly regarding taxes and spending, gained market attention. Negative sentiment toward the pound could strengthen downside momentum in the GBP/JPY pair if uncertainty arises.

The Bank of England (BoE) has been battling inflation with a 2% target for the 2026-2027 period, allowing it to gradually lower interest rates from their high levels.

Today's UK economic data calendar includes the release of the S&P Global Construction PMI for September. A stronger-than-expected result could provide temporary support for the GBP, but a weaker result would strengthen the case for a BoE rate cut.

The Japanese yen remains a safe-haven currency, and the BoJ's monetary policy remains very dovish with low interest rates. The interest rate gap between GBP and JPY is often a component of carry trades; if GBP weakens or Japan tightens, the pair could come under pressure.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to be in a very gradual policy tightening phase. After exiting its negative interest rate policy in 2024, market expectations are high for further interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter of 2026, particularly at the BoJ's meeting in late October 2025. Expectations of a BoJ rate hike are strongly supportive of the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency, while the GBP is more sensitive to global risks. If global stock markets rise, investors tend to sell the Japanese yen and buy the GBP, which can push the GBP/JPY up. If tensions or pessimistic sentiment arise, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, which can strengthen the Japanese yen and push GBP/JPY down.

The GBPJPY price has recently jumped and is likely to trade around the 200.00 level, with key resistance at 201.00-201.50. The intraday range is 199.50-201.20, with key support at 198.00 and 199.00-199.50.

Gold surges amid US fiscal and political uncertainty

Gold prices surged to $3,970 on Monday, October 6, seeking a new target of $4,000. The price drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. It formed a high of 3,970, a low of 3,884, and a close of 3,960 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices tended to move in a strong bullish position, supported by several key factors, including the ongoing budget impasse in Congress, which led to the US government shutdown. This situation created an information vacuum due to the delay in the release of important data, including the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which was supposed to be released on October 3, and increased market anxiety.

In times of uncertainty, gold acts as a safe-haven asset, driving demand for gold and supporting its price at higher levels. Although the US dollar strengthened due to the weakening of other currencies, such as the Japanese yen, market expectations that the Fed would be less hawkish or more inclined to ease interest rate hikes amid US economic uncertainty also supported gold prices. Lower or stagnant interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

Ongoing global geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, continue to drive investors to seek safe assets, one of which is gold. The current market trend toward risk-on behavior, meaning the willingness to take risks may limit gold's gains, but the US shutdown may be a more dominant factor at this time as a safe-haven catalyst.

While US fiscal and political uncertainty and safe-haven demand are key drivers, caution should be exercised against potential profit-taking after significant gains and the potential for short-term US dollar strengthening.

Technically, the gold price forecast targets strong resistance in the 3950-3960 range, with short-term resistance around 3930-3940. Short-term support is estimated at 3870-3880, with strong support around 3850-3860, and key intraday levels around 3900-3910.

The highly volatile gold price movement requires strict risk management. Trading with leverage, while boosting profit potential, also carries higher risks.

Japanese Yen Weakens to Highest Level, EUR/JPY Soars Through Key Level

The EUR/JPY pair surged on October 7, 2025, hitting a new all-time high of 177.144. The price drew a bullish candlestick with a nearly shadowless body, extending the previous rally. EUR/JPY formed a high of 177.144, a low of 175.781, and a close of 177.063 on FXOpen's platform.

The Japanese Yen's pressure was triggered by various factors, including the divergence in interest rate policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the ECB (ECB), as well as global risk sentiment. Recently, BoJ Governor Ueda voiced caution regarding interest rate hikes due to global uncertainty. The market appears to be assessing that the BoJ remains dovish or slow in raising interest rates. The victory of pro-stimulus politician Sanae Takaichi in Japan fueled expectations that Japan would pursue an expansionary fiscal policy and maintain low interest rates, which tends to weaken the Japanese Yen.

The interest rate divergence and policy outlook remain the strongest drivers of this pair. The ECB is expected to be in a phase of gradually easing interest rates towards a neutral level of around 2%, driven by slowing eurozone growth and headline inflation approaching its 2% target. This could make the euro less attractive, which could weaken the euro.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has exited its negative interest rate policy but is maintaining its interest rate around 0.5%, cautiously. Although there are signs of further tightening or the next rate hike is expected in late 2025 or early 2026, its interest rate remains ultra-low, which could weaken the Japanese Yen.

As long as the ECB's interest rate divergence is higher than the BoJ's, even though the ECB might cut rates and the BoJ could potentially raise them, the large yield differential creates a carry trade, meaning more JPY selling and EUR buying, structurally supporting the EURJPY rally.

Today, several important news items are likely to trigger volatility that investors are focusing on, such as comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, where the market will be looking for hawkish or dovish clues. A hawkish statement or policy tightening could trigger JPY buying, which could lower the EURJPY. Conversely, a dovish statement or policy loosening could encourage the EURJPY to extend its gains.

Meanwhile, ECB officials' speeches could also have a significant impact. Statements regarding the inflation outlook, economic growth, and potential ECB monetary policy adjustments could weigh on the euro. Statements indicating a faster rate cut could put pressure on the euro.

The market is currently dominated by risk-off sentiment, particularly due to the focus on developments surrounding the US government shutdown. Risk-off sentiment traditionally supports safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the US dollar, which could limit or even reverse EURJPY gains. Fundamentally, the divergence between the ECB's easing interest rates and the Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rates is supportive of EURJPY gains in the long term. The risk of a correction due to global risk-off sentiment stemming from the US government shutdown and the potential for unexpected hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda could trigger a surge in the yen, leading to a sharp correction in EURJPY.

Today's EURJPY price movement is estimated to be in the range of 176.00-178.00, with key resistance at 177.50. The next resistance is estimated to be in the range of 178.00-178.20 if the price breaks through this key level. Key support is estimated at around 176.00. Failing to hold the key level, the next support target is around 175.80.

WTI crude oil prices hovered near the middle band.

The price of WTI crude oil on Wednesday, October 8th, drew a doji candle, indicating market confusion. The price formed a high of 62.45, a low of 61.69, and a close of 61.97, opening at 61.78 on FXOpen's platform.

The direction of WTI crude oil prices is influenced by several factors, including US inventory data, OPEC+ production policy, the outlook for global demand versus supply, and the US dollar.

Recent data from the IEA showed inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub fell sharply, the largest decline since June. National US crude inventories are also near seasonal low levels, and refined product holdings have declined, indicating strong demand. The decrease in inventories, particularly at Cushing, the WTI hub, indicates tighter supply in the US and supports prices.

On the other hand, OPEC+ decided to increase production at a smaller rate than expected, such as an increase of 137,000 barrels per day or a smaller increase in November. The decision to moderate production increases helped keep supply from flooding the market, thereby supporting prices. However, the overall production increase by OPEC+ could limit broader price increases.

Oil demand appears to be strengthening based on US refined product data. However, the IEA projects the global oil market will experience a record surplus next year of around 3.33 million barrels per day, as OPEC continues to increase production and US production is projected to reach a record high. In the short term, oil is supported by US demand, but the prospect of a future global supply surplus could limit upward price momentum.

Another factor of concern is the value of the US dollar. Generally, a weaker US dollar makes oil traded in USD more affordable, and vice versa. Sentiment regarding the possibility of a future Fed interest rate cut can support oil prices. USD performance is usually measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies. Today, it's important to pay attention to the USD-related news schedule, including the FOMC meeting minutes and unemployment claims, which may impact the USD's performance in the short term. However, the US shutdown may cause a delay in the data release.

The forecast intraday price range is estimated to be in the range of $61.50-$64.60 per barrel, with key resistance at 63.50-64.60, a pivot point at 62.50, and key support at 61.50-62.00. A decrease in these levels could trigger a rally to 60.00.

USD/CAD Surges Above the Psychological Level of 1.4000 as Risk-Off Sentiment Maintains Constructive Condition

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle on Thursday, October 10, 2025, reflecting the significant gains the pair has made. The price formed a high of 1.40340, a low of 1.39333, and a close of 1.40225, according to FXOpen's platform.

The factors driving the price increase in this pair were the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by the general risk-off sentiment in the forex market and geopolitical concerns, such as those in France and Japan, which drove capital flows into the USD. The market also anticipated comments from Fed officials that interest rate cuts might be slower or at least remain on hold for longer.

In the US domestic market, despite the strengthening long-term outlook, the USD remains overshadowed by the issue of a protracted US government shutdown. Today's economic calendar will see the US release Prelim UoM inflation sentiment and expectations data. Meanwhile, Canada will release employment data, employment change, and the unemployment rate.

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency because the country relies heavily on exports for its economy, particularly oil. WTI oil prices are reportedly trending lower, fluctuating around $61.50. This decline is likely to put pressure on the CAD. In Canada, the Bank of Canada recently cut interest rates to 2.50%, a three-year low in response to domestic economic pressures. Further rate cuts are expected in Canada if economic data, particularly employment and inflation, continue to weaken.

Traders' primary focus today is Canadian employment data, including the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 7.2% from 7.1%. A rise in the unemployment rate would be considered negative for the CAD.

Overall, from a fundamental perspective, pressure is likely to be on the USD/CAD side, driven by a strengthening US dollar due to risk-off sentiment and a weakening Canadian dollar due to lower oil prices and the potential for weak Canadian employment data. Market movements will be sensitive to the actual results of the Canadian unemployment rate data, which will be released today.

Considering the potential volatility, USDCAD is expected to move within today's price range, with lower support at 1.3900-1.8930 and main resistance at 1.4050-1.4100.

WTI oil plummets to a low of 57.95 due to Trump's tariff threats on China

On Friday, October 10, 2025, the XTI/USD oil price plummeted to a low of 57.95 after breaking the key 60.00 level. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 61.28, a low of 57.95, and a close of 57.99 on FXOpen's platform.

Factors likely contributing to this sharp decline include the threat of US tariffs on China. US President Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Chinese products has raised concerns that U.S.-China trade relations could worsen and weaken global oil demand. As China is one of the largest oil consumers, any prospect of economic weakness there could depress global oil demand.

Geopolitical conflicts are also a concern. The previous conflict in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel had previously added a risk premium to oil prices, with the market adding a risk premium due to concerns about supply disruptions. However, when a ceasefire or a reduction in tensions occurs, some of the risk premium disappears, causing oil prices to correct downwards.

From an oil supply perspective, there are concerns about excess supply. Fears that OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers' continued increases in oil production could depress oil prices. If the market believes oversupply is imminent, while demand weakens, selling pressure will emerge.

As the threat of tariffs and economic uncertainty increases, investors are opting for safe-haven assets or selling riskier assets, including commodities like oil. Worsening market sentiment is accelerating the sell-off.

However, despite concerns about oversupply, OPEC+ may attempt to manage supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia's extension of their cuts until the end of the year could provide price support. The decline in US crude oil inventories, as reported in weekly data, could be a positive catalyst for oil prices. The threat of new sanctions against Russia if the conflict in Ukraine fails to end, which could disrupt global oil flows, could also be a catalyst for price increases.

The forecast short-term price movement range for today is estimated at 57.95-61.67, with key resistance at 61.50-62.00. Key support levels are estimated to be in the range of 59.39-60.22, with the psychological level at 59.00.

Today's economic calendar shows several banks in Japan, Canada, and the United States closed for a holiday. These bank closures may impact spot market trading volumes.

Gold prices soar, hitting a new all-time high again.

Gold prices surged above $4,100 amid global trade and political turmoil. On Monday, October 13, 2025, gold prices soared, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 4,116, a low of 3,998, and a close of 4,109 on FXOpen's platform.

President Trump's rhetoric appears to be causing market anxiety and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Last week, US President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's rare earth metal export controls. However, Trump backed off, posting on Truth Social, "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine!"

Furthermore, concerns about escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as those between Russia and Ukraine, continue to increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. This heightened global uncertainty is strongly supporting the rise in gold prices.

Market expectations of the Fed's strong monetary easing, with the Fed continuing its 25 basis point interest rate cuts at its October and December meetings, have become a major catalyst for gold. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken the US dollar, which is historically correlated with gold. A weaker US dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Previously, gold had experienced strong price gains, having hit a new record high and broken through the crucial $4,000 level. Gold reached $4,059 on October 8, 2025. This strong upward momentum indicates massive buying interest from institutional investors and central banks.

The US government shutdown has entered its thirteenth day. A Bloomberg article revealed that Trump's permanent impeachment reinforces Democratic skepticism toward the Republicans and could prolong the shutdown.

Analysts at Bank of America and Société Générale predict gold will reach $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to an average of $4,488 next year. US bank Goldman Sachs updated its gold forecast for 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900.

While support for gold is strong, there are potential risks that could restrain price gains. After hitting a new record high, gold is vulnerable to profit-taking, which could lead to a short-term correction. Furthermore, there are important events scheduled for today. A speech by Fed Chairman Powell, if he delivers a hawkish tone or dismisses expectations of an interest rate cut, could strengthen the USD and lower gold prices.

Today's forecast resistance is in the $4,080-$4,120 range. Some analysts are citing $4,084-$4,122 as a resistance target if the bullish trend continues, with $4,160 as an extension target if the uptrend continues. Lower support is estimated at the key $3926 level. If the price falls below this level, corrective pressure will open. Additional support is located around $3892 and $3864 as intermediate support, with the potential for a rebound if the price falls below that level.

The AUD tends to weaken amid US-China trade risk sentiment.

On Tuesday, October 14, 2025, the AUD/USD pair drew a long bearish candle with a long body and a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.65212, a low of 0.64404, and a close of 0.64853 on FXOpen's platform. This extended the decline that began the previous week.

The Australian dollar is a commodity currency because its economy relies on exports. News indicates that gold export revenues are projected to reach a record of around $60 billion in the 2025-2026 fiscal year. If key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and natural gas remain high or strengthen, this could provide fundamental support for the AUD.

Australia's second-quarter GDP growth in 2025 showed the highest growth in two years, driven by household consumption. Although the savings ratio declined, this growth demonstrates the resilience of the Australian economy.

The RBA's decision and guidance on interest rates will be a key factor. If inflation remains high and the RBA maintains a hawkish stance, raising or maintaining high interest rates, this will support the AUD. Conversely, signals of policy easing will weaken the AUD.

News of mass resignations due to burnout could indicate pressure on the labor market or productivity in Australia, which could pose a short-term fundamental risk.

USD drivers, including the Fed's decisions and guidance on interest rates, inflation, and the US economic outlook, will dominate USD movements. If the Fed remains focused on curbing inflation by maintaining high interest rates, the USD will tend to strengthen. Meanwhile, signals of an interest rate cut will weaken the USD. GDP, Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI/PCE, and retail asset sales data are key; stronger-than-expected data generally supports USD strength.

The US dollar often functions as a safe-haven currency. If global tensions, such as US-China tensions, escalate or geopolitical uncertainty arises, demand for the USD typically increases, putting pressure on the AUD/USD.

The short-term fundamental bias suggests that the market tends to seek assets offering higher yields and safety. The AUD's support comes from the potential strength of the commodity sector and Australia's solid economic growth. However, global risk sentiment surrounding US-China trade tensions tends to drive capital flows into the USD and put pressure on the AUD/USD.

Today's forecast and assumptions, barring any major macroeconomic surprises, suggest psychological resistance levels are in the range of 0.65500 - 0.65800, with support at recent lows in the range of 0.64400 - 0.64600. A conservative range is 0.64600 - 0.65300, and a broad range is 0.64400 - 0.65500.

XAG/USD continues to show strong bullish momentum during this period.

Silver prices rose again on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle after a retracement on Tuesday. Silver formed a high of 53,148, a low of 51,358, and a close of 52,944 on FXOpen's platform.

In general, the silver price trend shows strong and sustained bullish momentum during this period, supported by key fundamental factors.

Silver is also considered a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Global political or geopolitical uncertainty, such as the US government shutdown, uncertainty in France and Japan, and the US-China trade war, continues to drive investors to safe-haven assets, including gold and silver. Its correlation with gold also provides fundamental support for silver prices. Recently, gold prices broke through the $4,200 per troy oz level, while silver prices also rose to 53,460, their highest level since 2011.

The prospect of a Fed rate cut remains high. Several Fed officials are calling for a rate cut, with a possible 25 basis point cut at the October meeting, which tends to weaken the US dollar and support safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

The impact of a weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like silver more attractive and cheaper for holders of other currencies, pushing up the XAGUSD price. Silver is a non-yielding asset, so a low-interest-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding it.

In the industrial sector, silver serves a dual function as both an industrial metal and a monetary system. Demand for silver has surged sharply from green energy sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics. In fact, the Silver Institute predicts a market deficit for the fifth consecutive year by 2025. This combination of tight supply and high demand fundamentally supports rising silver prices.

Overall, fundamentals remain very bullish, driven by its safe-haven status, expectations of US monetary easing, and a supply deficit driven by industrial demand. However, the risk of volatility remains, and significant profit-taking could lead to a sharp short-term correction.

The daily silver price forecast for today is a bullish range of $52,000-$54,300, with a potential breakout of $55,000. The nearest key resistance is estimated at $53,770, with intermediate resistance at $54,300, the psychological target at $55,000, with projected support at $52,000-$52,500, and the nearest key support at $50,010. A breakout of key support would lead to intermediate support at $48,400-$47,900.

CHF Strengthens Amid Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut

The USD/CHF currency pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle on Thursday, October 16th. This extended the previous two days of decline, driven by the strengthening of the CHF against the USD. The USDCHF price formed a high of 0.79849, a low of 0.79240, and a close of 0.79244 on FXOpen's platform.

Currently, the market is pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates by the end of this year due to economic pressures in the labor sector and a slowing economy. A US interest rate cut could weaken the US dollar and strengthen the CHF, causing the USDCHF pair to decline.

US-China trade tensions and global risks are also of concern to the market. Tariff escalation and trade rhetoric have boosted safe-haven sentiment, with investors preferring safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc. The strengthening CHF is putting downward pressure on the USDCHF pair.

The Swiss economy is projected to slow, with inflation expected to remain low. The SNB maintains near-zero interest rates and tends to be cautious in its currency interventions. The limited scope for monetary tightening in Switzerland supports the CHF's fundamentals, which are not easily weakened.

There is an agreement between the US and Switzerland not to overtly manipulate the exchange rate, but it still allows intervention if the market is highly volatile. This could act as a floor against extreme CHF appreciation.

If global investors seek a safe-haven asset, Switzerland could be a destination for capital flows. Diversification among foreign exchange reserves could also encourage USD dominance in international portfolios. This situation could increase downward pressure on the USD/CHF.

In a global risk environment, the CHF, as a safe-haven currency, could tend to strengthen against the USD, weighing on the USD/CHF.

The forecast range for the USD/CHF pair today includes strong technical resistance around 0.79750-0.79800, with key support around 0.79250-0.79300. If this zone is broken, it could extend to the area below 0.79000. In the medium term, the fundamental trend supports USD weakening against the CHF if expectations of a US interest rate cut materialize and global risks worsen. However, the USD could get a breather if there is data that falls short of expectations from the US.

Will Silver prices extend their gains?

Silver's price movement on Friday, October 17, 2025, showed a bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. This reflects a strong price decline, followed by significant buyer action. The price formed a high of 54,461, a low of 50,611, and a close of 51,669 on FXOpen's platform.

Silver is a commodity with a dual function, acting not only as a safe-haven asset but also as an industrial commodity. This factor takes into account the safe-haven factor and its relationship to the USD. Secondly, industrial factors and market demand/supply are key factors.

Silver is traded in USD, so the strength of the US dollar and the Fed's interest rate are key factors. When the USD weakens or interest rates fall, silver will receive a boost. Currently, the market is focusing on Fed policy and whether there will be an interest rate cut, which could support silver. Data shows that the market is already pricing in a potential Fed rate cut at the end of October 2025, which is bullish for silver.

However, if there's a hawkish surprise or strong economic data, such as inflation or employment, that supports the US dollar, silver could face selling pressure. However, the current US shutdown could delay US news releases.

Current global risk sentiment, political uncertainty such as US-China trade tensions, political uncertainty in Europe and Japan, the risk of recession, or geopolitical concerns tend to increase demand for safe-haven assets like silver and support price increases.

Silver is currently experiencing a serious supply shortage. Production is declining because much silver is merely a byproduct of other metal mining, while demand is increasing significantly in the industrial sector. Reports indicate that the physical London market is experiencing an extreme shortage. The Silver Institute estimates the silver market deficit will continue for the fifth consecutive year through 2025. This market scarcity is a very strong medium-term fundamental factor supporting price increases.

Despite the current bullish outlook, analysts warn that silver is riskier than gold because it lacks central bank support and is more sensitive to industrial cycles. Another risk is that silver prices have already rallied strongly, with potential profit-taking or a rapid correction if macroeconomic conditions disappoint.

The silver price forecast for today is support around 48.60-50.00, with a correction scenario if pressure from macroeconomic risks arises. Resistance is around 54.00-56.00 if bullish momentum continues and macro factors are supportive. A realistic price range would be 49.50-55.00.

The Canadian dollar has the potential to weaken amid falling oil prices.

On Monday, October 20, 2025, the USDCAD pair drew a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.40510, a low of 1.40052, and a close of 1.40354 on FXOpen's platform. This candlestick continues to show a higher low.

In addition to the dominant factors driven by the divergence between the Fed and the BoC's monetary policies and oil commodity prices, global risk sentiment can also influence the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

Global market developments, such as reports on relations with China, could support USD strength. A strengthening US dollar will generally push the USDCAD pair up.

The Bank of Canada reported third-quarter business and consumer surveys showing limited optimism: companies' outlooks remain moderate, with many reluctant to increase production capacity or hire due to the pressure of US tariffs. The market now expects the BoC to cut interest rates by around 25 basis points at its October 29 meeting.

Oil prices are currently trending downward due to various factors, including oversupply and US-China trade tensions, which could reduce Chinese demand for oil. Falling oil prices have the potential to reduce Canada's oil export revenues.

In the US, despite expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate cut, limited economic data due to the US government shutdown adds to the uncertainty. The US dollar is relatively supported by its safe-haven status and global liquidity, as well as by the continued USD-Canadian interest rate differential.

Due to Canada's weakening domestic economic pressures, this tends to weaken the CAD, meaning USD/CAD tends to rise as the USD strengthens relative to the CAD. On the other hand, although the USD could be under pressure if the Fed becomes more dovish, current conditions still slightly support the USD due to the interest rate differential and low expectations of a strong hike. In the short term, the fundamental bias of the USD/CAD pair is slightly bullish for the USD.

The forecasted reasonable price range for today is between 1.4000 and 1.4085. An upside breakout scenario, if the USD is strong, will see the next resistance range of 1.4160 and 1.4170. A downside breakdown scenario, if the CAD rebounds strongly and oil strengthens, could see a drop to 1.3920 and 13990. Canada will release inflation data on today's economic calendar.

Gold prices plummet from their all-time highs

Gold prices suddenly plummeted on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bearish candle with a lower low and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price then formed a high of 4375, a low of 4082, and a close of 4124 on FXOpen's platform.

After the gold price experienced a significant surge and reached above $4300 per troy oz, gold began to experience pullback pressure due to significant profit-taking. The market is currently awaiting subtle clues from fundamental US economic data, the Fed's decision, and US-China trade before deciding on its next direction.

The main fundamental situation is safe-haven demand and central banks. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset and receives strong support from global uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, and changes in government reserve strategies. Central banks and large institutions are also buying gold for diversification, which strengthens medium- to long-term demand.

Because gold offers no yield, when the Fed is expected to lower interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, supporting a rise in its price. Conversely, a strengthening US dollar or expectations of a no-lower-interest-rate will be a counter-factor for gold.

Considering gold's fundamentals, if strong US economic news or data supports the dollar, such as higher-than-expected inflation, gold could be under pressure due to expectations of high interest rates, which could push XAUUSD lower. Therefore, it's important to closely monitor changes such as US economic data releases, official statements or announcements from the Fed regarding interest rates, and also keep an eye on any sudden geopolitical or trade developments.

If risk-on sentiment dominates and the USD strengthens, supported by strong US economic data and the Fed's hawkish outlook, the short-term outlook for gold is likely bearish. However, if there is new geopolitical turmoil or signs of global economic weakness, safe-haven demand could quickly turn bullish.

The forecast for today's gold price range is the main resistance range of 4305 - 4327 with the nearest pivot at 4280 with a mid-price range of around 4250 - 4270. Strong support is around 4000, with the nearest support at around 4080. The price range can fluctuate significantly, given the risk of volatility and depending on the release of surprising US economic data or sudden geopolitical developments.

The Canadian Dollar Strengthens After Oil Prices Rebound

During the trading session on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, the USD/CAD pair drew a long bearish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.40323, a low of 1.39760, and a close of 1.39874.

The Canadian dollar's strengthening was in line with rising oil prices after a session of decline that reached the oversold zone.

Today, the main fundamental factor attracting investor attention is Canadian economic data. The relevant economic data affecting the USD/CAD movements today is the monthly core retail sales for August. If Canadian core and headline retail sales data are better than forecast, indicating strong consumer spending and supporting the Canadian dollar, this could cause the USD/CAD pair to decline. Conversely, if the economic data report is worse than forecast, it indicates an economic slowdown and could potentially weaken the Canadian dollar.

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, and its price is highly sensitive to oil prices. Rising oil prices tend to support the Canadian dollar, while falling oil prices can pressure the currency. Oil prices are currently on a two-day rebound after a prolonged decline the previous week. Some positive news for Canada, although the market response has not been strong.

Canadian economic data, while showing strength, such as some employment and export data, appears to have failed to significantly strengthen the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. The market appears to be awaiting a more significant catalyst. Several analysts have highlighted upside potential if the Canadian dollar remains weak and the USD receives capital inflows.

Medium-term analysis suggests that the CAD could begin to strengthen as the interest rate and stimulus cycle in Canada progress, ultimately putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD.

On the other hand, factors influencing the USD stem from global risk sentiment. Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty can increase demand for the USD, a safe-haven currency.

Traders are also anticipating the Fed's policy stance. Expectations of interest rate hikes or cuts will significantly impact the USD. The Fed is currently adopting a more cautious monetary stance amidst global conditions that still pose risks.

The USD/CAD price forecast for today is within the range of 1.3950 - 1.4150. The forecast peak and short-term resistance are around 1.4080 - 1.4115. Support is estimated at 1.3990 - 1.4000. A decline in the psychological level and the lower limit could trigger a significant decline in the USD/CAD.

GBP/USD Extends Decline Ahead of UK PMI Data Release

On Thursday, October 23, 2025, the GBP/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a relatively long body and small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This decline extended the previous four-day decline. The price formed a high of 1.33600, a low of 1.33078, and a close of 1.3325.

Several fundamental factors contributed to the weakening of the GBP, including the UK's annual inflation data for September, which was recorded at 3.8%, below expectations and not increasing from the previous month. This condition has raised expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates or remain cautious. The UK economy appears weak, or at least not particularly strong, with limited growth, creating pressure in the UK bond market. A more dovish BoE outlook or potential rate cuts could cause yields on UK instruments to fall, reducing the attractiveness of the GBP against the USD. Expectations for a BoE rate cut have increased, and the market now expects 20 bps of easing for December, up from 11 bps. Today, the UK will release its services PMI economic data. If the data surprises, showing faster growth, it could support the GBP. However, the risks are currently more to the downside.

On the other hand, the USD is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in lowering interest rates as expected, thus making US yields more attractive, boosting demand for the USD. Global risk sentiment, coupled with uncertainty, is boosting the safe-haven USD, which could strengthen demand for global liquidity. US trade rhetoric against China has worried investors, prompting them to turn to safe assets like the US dollar and gold. Reuters sources revealed that the Trump administration plans to restrict global exports to China that make or contain US software in retaliation for China's export controls on rare earths and port fees for US vessels.

Today, the US will release CPI data, which is crucial for the Fed in determining interest rate policy. The annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%. If the actual figure is higher than forecast, this could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike or at least keep interest rates at high levels for a longer period. A higher-than-expected US CPI tends to strengthen the USD because it increases speculation that the Fed will be hawkish. This could put downward pressure on GBPUSD. Conversely, if the US CPI is lower than forecast, it will tend to weaken the USD because it reduces the need for the Fed to raise interest rates, which can provide an upward push for GBPUSD.

If global stock markets, particularly in the US, strengthen, this could indicate risk-on sentiment, which can sometimes support the GBP. However, USD strength due to strong CPI figures could dominate this sentiment. The US dollar is generally supported by expectations of a stable or hawkish Fed policy stance, while the US economy remains relatively strong.

Today's price range, if volatility is high due to the US CPI, is forecast to be between 1.3240 and 1.3430. A conservative range is estimated at 1.3280 and 1.3380.

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, if there is a sudden weakening in global risk appetite, investors could turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, which could pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.

Gold Prices Continue to Correct, Crossing the Middle Band Line

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, October 27, 2025, extending their correction, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 4108, a low of 3971, and a close of 3987. This decline successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside and crossed the psychological level of 4000.

Gold prices have been highly volatile recently, having reached new highs followed by sharp corrections. Historically, the long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum indicates a correction or consolidation phase.

From a long-term perspective, if global risk sentiment improves, such as optimism about resolving US-China trade tensions and geopolitical issues, this could lead to easing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price declines. Recently, it was reported that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold a meeting, which raised optimism about a resolution to the trade war between the two countries. According to US officials, they have finalized the framework of a trade deal with Chinese economic leaders that is set to be formalized by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported that, according to US officials, this agreement will halt steeper US tariff increases, end restrictions on rare earths exports from China, and resume China's large purchases of US soybeans.

Besides global risk sentiment, profit-taking after a significant rally also triggered further price declines in the short term. On the other hand, gold often has a negative correlation with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, supported by strong US economic data or a hawkish Fed outlook, gold tends to fall. However, the DXY is currently not showing significant increases; although it is trending upward, its movement is still below the 100 level. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, for example, ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, which could signal a dovish outlook, gold could be pushed up.

The market is currently anticipating the imminent interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.8%. If the actual data meets market expectations, it is likely to push gold prices up. Conversely, if the Fed is more cautious and leaves interest rates unchanged, this could pressure gold prices.

Despite the prospect of lower interest rates, the US dollar is showing signs of regaining strength, or at least not weakening further. This could put pressure on gold prices. A more bullish market sentiment, which is seeking riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, as the market tends to be risk-on, could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Today's price forecast is for a broader range of 3920-4140 and a consolidation range of 3985-4086. Strong resistance is around 4140-4160, and strong support is around 3920-3960.