Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

*(UK) JULY RETAIL SALES: M/M 0.7% V 0.1%E; Y/Y 4.4% V 3.4%E
- Prior m/m revised from 0.2% to 0.4%
- Prior y/y revised from 3.4% to 3.7%

Well.. Positive news.. GJ may go up around 35-40 pips now i guess..

Preview - UK Retail Data Will Trigger Volatility
The UK retail sales series tends to be volatile on a monthly basis and there are particular risks surrounding this month’s release on Thursday. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase over the month, but there is a good chance of a monthly change of more than 1.0% in either direction.

The latest survey evidence has generally suggested a slowdown in consumer spending with the BRC sales growth falling to a 7-month low of 1.2% in July. Consumer confidence also appears to have edged weaker over the past few weeks.

Weather conditions were unseasonably wet in July which will have a significant impact on sales. In addition, the latest consumer prices index recorded a sharp drop in prices in key areas. Prices for furniture and household goods fell 4.2% over the month while clothing and footwear prices fell 4.0%. This discounting suggests that sales trends were particularly weak during the month which triggered price cuts.

The monthly sales data, however, records changes in volumes and the price cutting will also have an important impact on sales volumes which is liable to distort the data.

Market sentiment towards a further rise in UK interest rates has already softened following the weaker than expected inflation data this week. A worse than expected retail sales report would substantially increase speculation that interest rates have peaked at 5.75%

In this context, the UK currency is liable to react more to a weaker than expected sales report. In an immediate reaction, Sterling is liable to drop sharply on a headline sales drop of more than 0.6%. An increase of more than 0.6% would spark initial gains, but rallies are liable to be sold quickly.

The net risks look Sterling negative, but great caution is required given the risk of an erratic figure.
__________________

Tim Clayton
Investica Ltd Head of Research
Forex Factory Senior Analyst

that calls for hmm a uptrend

very good GBP retail sales

Que, I chaged the background and can see them now thanks

Dunno.. could be a temporary spike up.. markets are not going to stop selling GJ just because of good retail sales. I'm staying out for now.. never know if GJ will retrace 100-300 pips because of this report.. or it will simply ignore it and keep dropping.

in such strong bearish market i dont think bulls will be allowed to go much far

Well iam off now to get some sleep,be back at NY opening..

So thats the notice for the market to move now....

Funny, looks like GJ wants to fight to go up.. but AUD and NZD are completely collapsing.. dragging all other carry pairs with them.

It's not as bearish as you may think..pair has travelled more than 2000 pips with only 1 full retracement.. It's very week right now until the next full retracement

Good night Glenn. I like your avator, your signature and your charts with explanations.

Sydney stock market went down (almost collapsed) today.

I went long on GJ.. very small lot.. so you won't get your retracement yet :

Yeah.. 5% in one day.. lol.. man what is up with all these doom-gloom people. I am so tired of seeing markets drop hundreds of points everyday - it's getting boring

You do not have to change your background color.

When you add the indicator, go to the colors tab and you can change the line colors there.

I closed my short position -10pips . I will go long if 30min cross upwards for 100-150 pips.. only a small position.

ooo the market is going to go lived when the US session opens

ill just sit back and relax...

Yes, I was waiting for to go to bed. Now the market will do something.

But I will probably go the wrong way or miss it.

Thanks Que,

That fixed it. I thought you were purposely trying to make the 3rd line invisible.