The Swamp

its under this atm.. When no more it can rise.. The liquid was placed here. All I need now is sustained above 1756 to fill my sail,
Starting with + 1749.

Trump can keep he gov shut until better numbers now.

Yeah... Well those 10s+ of thousands of laid off workers. eat. shop, pay house notes and credit cards; Those happen less when theny are not being paid. A lot of other workers depend on the Gov employees for their jobs. GDP is already 1/2 under this. The answer is to shrink it more according to 1 self proclaimed stable genius. Whats the old parable about insanity?

ADP dont work for him, but maybe he can take it over with an executive order to get good numbers

Making Depressions Great Again.

Do you agree that both Monthly and Quarterly close were bearish?

ouch!

Add in the DOGE 100,000 "retirements" of federal workers which goes into affect today. This almost gets forgotten, probably by design. Employment is not looking good for this year.

credit is getting weaker, all Buy now pay later are having issues. $UPST gave terrible numbers. Today they may sell all sector again.

only AI is left now. without data centres + AI this economy doesn't look very good

no bueno

There is a multiple to gov jobs.. So it a bunch more.

It keeps walking up to it..

The multiplier number—specifically for government job losses—varies depending on the economy, the region, and the nature of the jobs being eliminated. But here’s a general sense of the numbers:
Typical Range of Government Employment Multipliers:

1. 1.3 to 1.6 is a commonly cited range in economic research.
   1. This means that for every 1 government job lost, 1.3 to 1.6 total jobs are lost in the economy (including indirect losses in the private sector).

What That Means:
If 10,000 government workers are laid off, the total job loss across the economy could be 13,000 to 16,000 once you account for ripple effects (reduced spending, lower demand in local businesses, etc.).
Example from Research:
A 2012 study by the IMF found that fiscal consolidations (like cutting public employment) tend to have larger negative multipliers during recessions:

1. Multiplier estimates up to 1.7 or higher in bad economic times.
2. Closer to 1.0 or less during strong growth.

A 2014 University of California, Berkeley study found that:

1. State and local government layoffs during the Great Recession had multipliers in the 1.5 to 2.0 range in some areas.

Factors That Influence the Multiplier:
FactorEffect on Multiplier
Local economy sizeHigher in smaller/local economies
Type of jobs lostHigher for high-skill or high-wage roles
Economic conditionsHigher during recessions
Ability to get new jobsLower if workers transition quickly
Simple Example:
Government Jobs CutEstimated Total Jobs Lost (with 1.5x multiplier)
1,0001,500
10,00015,000
50,00075,000
Would you like a more tailored estimate (e.g., by state, industry, or economic conditions)?
You said:
is there a multiple to those non government workers included?
ChatGPT said:
Yes — and this is an important nuance.
When we talk about government job loss multipliers (like 1.3 to 1.6), those numbers already include the indirect impact on non-government (private sector) workers. But if you're asking whether those private-sector job losses then cause even more job losses, the answer is:
Yes — There’s a "secondary" or "induced" multiplier effect.
Here's How It Works:

1. Government workers are fired (direct loss).
2. Private businesses lose income from those workers spending less (indirect loss).
3. Private-sector workers are laid off or see reduced hours.
4. Those private-sector workers then spend less, causing further job losses — this is the induced effect.

So, it's a chain reaction:
Direct → Indirect → Induced
So Is There a Separate Multiplier for Non-Government Workers?
Not exactly a separate multiplier — instead, it’s part of the total fiscal/employment multiplier, which includes:
Type of EffectDescription
DirectGovernment jobs eliminated
IndirectPrivate jobs lost due to less government demand
InducedMore private jobs lost due to reduced local spending
Researchers sometimes break it out like this:

1. Direct job loss multiplier (just the public job loss) = 1.0
2. Total employment multiplier (including ripple effects) = 1.5 – 2.0+
   1. Of this, private sector losses can make up 30% to 60% or more, depending on the situation.

Example:
Let’s say 1,000 government workers are fired.

1. With a 1.6 multiplier, total jobs lost = 1,600
   1. Of those:
      1. 1,000 = government jobs (direct)
      2. 600 = private sector jobs (indirect + induced)

Now, those 600 private sector jobs lost might themselves cause another 200–300 job losses in other private businesses. This is a second-round effect, and while not always modeled explicitly, it does happen and can be captured in recursive or dynamic economic models.
Economic Model Terms to Know:

1. Input-output models (like IMPLAN): Estimate these chains across sectors.
2. Keynesian multipliers: Include all rounds of spending.
3. Fiscal multipliers: Measure total GDP or employment change from fiscal changes (like government layoffs).

Summary:

1. Yes, non-government job losses from government layoffs can cause further job losses.
2. These are part of a cascading multiplier effect.
3. The total employment multiplier (including private sector effects) is often in the 1.5 to 2.0 range — higher in weaker economies.
4. There’s not a separate, widely cited multiplier just for private-sector-on-private-sector job loss, but models do track multi-round effects that include it.

In the range part.

Depends on the rules. And if those rules are proven. Not just stated to be true. Then just repeated over and over

strange PA. I wasn't expecting on such a news to see EUR back near 1.17
Gold also did not go up. Market ripping higher.

yea until we are out of the range

still short, added a bit now with a tight stop at 1.1753 for the add.
the short still on unless we start trending higher.

next gov vote is on Friday/Weekend. so no NFP on Friday

i am not sure while we are stuck in this range 1780 my key resistance and so far it has been respected so as 1720 as support

we will need to close below 1722 to trigger a drop.

but if we start closing above 1755 1760 then likely another attack to the top or 1820 level.

i will wait for another 30mins to see where we at and whether usdx defends 97.70 level

yeah I was pretty bullish for the last months until we got above 1.18, then I shorted it because I think 1.16-1.12 could be a big range.
I would not be surprised to get to 1.2 by the end of the year
today I think PA was bearish, I am out of the trade if we trade again above 1.18
Can't believe we didn't rally on ADP numbers. I think it may have been a distortion with so many revisions.
I would not be surprised to have a better NFP