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  • #93,581
  • Oct 1, 2025 1:27am Oct 1, 2025 1:27am
what a beautiful October open ..
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,582
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:00am Oct 1, 2025 2:00am
Keep moving to 5000
Telegram orderflowbuddy
  • #93,583
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:05am Oct 1, 2025 2:05am
Quoting arulisme
Keep moving to 5000
seen you after a while .. yup getting there ..
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,584
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:22am Oct 1, 2025 2:22am
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  • #93,585
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:26am Oct 1, 2025 2:26am
I try sell
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  • #93,586
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:30am Oct 1, 2025 2:30am
Sell and SL BE
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #93,587
  • Oct 1, 2025 2:36am Oct 1, 2025 2:36am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{image}
You and I we should really get married.

Our trade idea and entry rule is almost the same.

BTW what's your target?

My swing shorts are TP at 3675
No more engagement as from today.
  • #93,588
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:02am Oct 1, 2025 3:02am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} You and I we should really get married. Our trade idea and entry rule is almost the same. BTW what's your target? My swing shorts are TP at 3675


ive come across funny dudes .. but this .. ultimate first time open forum proposal.. let me know how that goes
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,589
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:06am Oct 1, 2025 3:06am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} You and I we should really get married. Our trade idea and entry rule is almost the same. BTW what's your target? My swing shorts are TP at 3675
XDDDDDD
  • #93,590
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:08am Oct 1, 2025 3:08am
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} ive come across funny dudes .. but this .. ultimate first time open forum proposal.. let me know how that goes
"You dont know nothing Jon Snow"

First we focus on managing the trade.
Then i'll keep you update on my to-be work wife.


P/S: If she accepts
No more engagement as from today.
  • #93,591
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:21am Oct 1, 2025 3:21am
While the mainstream sells you government shutdown,

#1 FOMC members slowly turning Hawkish, indicating they are ready to hold rate instead of cutting.
The spread between US01 inflation expection and US 01y Yield, tighten, making real interest rate higher.

#2
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FED recently calls in Major banks for reserve stress
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  • #93,592
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:24am Oct 1, 2025 3:24am
Quoting thebigshot
While the mainstream sells you government shutdown, #1 FOMC members slowly turning Hawkish, indicating they are ready to hold rate instead of cutting. The spread between US01 inflation expection and US 01y Yield, tighten, making real interest rate higher. #2 {image} FED recently calls in Major banks for reserve stress
follow sofr and m2 and see how the repo markets are reacting
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,593
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:31am Oct 1, 2025 3:31am
Based on the liquidity crunch awaiting us
SPX
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I'm buliding some shorts, as the probability/ fear not yet present.
Nor the structure is broken.
However, with my years trading SPX, when a correction is near, we usally dont get Shift in market structure.
Instead a swing failure pattern is more frequently.
So, using purely fundamental, and shift in internal structure while external structure remains intact, the thin probability start to present themselves.
I just wait for a retest with inducement.
Which has happened.

Probability for us to see 6091 is thin, but present.
Options Cvol already priced in that probability.


My trade idea
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P/S:
For those who said this is a SPX chart, should not be in Gold thread, You should really learn how capital flows accross risk assets, safe haven assets, and what happen when the overall liquidity crunch becomes a pain in arse.
No more engagement as from today.
  • #93,594
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:34am Oct 1, 2025 3:34am
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} follow sofr and m2 and see how the repo markets are reacting
They are lagged indicator.

Real interest rate and credit spreads 02s30s and 10s30s showed the real time change.

By the time M2 and Sofr react, equity market already lose 5% while Gold lose ~$150
No more engagement as from today.
  • #93,595
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:47am Oct 1, 2025 3:47am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} They are lagged indicator. Real interest rate and credit spreads 02s30s and 10s30s showed the real time change. By the time M2 and Sofr react, equity market already lose 5% while Gold lose ~$150
youre right .. M2 is lagged and yield spreads show real-time shifts .. however I wouldnt call SOFR and repo lagged. They dont move every day but when they spike, its usually the earliest sign of funding stress before it spills into equities or gold. The best way is to watch for both spreads for immediate direction, repo and SOFR for systemic cracks .. maybe did not put that correctly..
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,596
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:47am Oct 1, 2025 3:47am
The question remains can the recent large resignation number of federal workers appear into this week NFP?
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  • #93,597
  • Oct 1, 2025 3:53am Oct 1, 2025 3:53am
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} youre right .. M2 is lagged and yield spreads show real-time shifts .. however I wouldnt call SOFR and repo lagged. They dont move every day but when they spike, its usually the earliest sign of funding stress before it spills into equities or gold. The best way is to watch for both spreads for immediate direction, repo and SOFR for systemic cracks .. maybe did not put that correctly..
Yes it may start from there.
But the spill over effect occurs when spread steepen or flattens.
This gives us directional bias to hold trade into that.

The same way we hold buys for gold, when FED decides to cut into high inflation and solid growth.
This create a swing move.

SOFR and repo moves when it happens. To position for that move we use credit spread and real interest rate as well as liquidity reserve in the system, which means we anticipate money market (SOfr & Repo) will move from X to Y, then equities and Commodities will move from A to B.
We posittion for that A to B before it happens.

This put us in a Low probability Low risk situation (bet on the odd). But if we are right, when probability turn in our favour, We monetise the move with such a low risk.
Which gives us high reward, not the simple 1:4 trade setups based on price action only, but an average 1:15 trade setup.


WHAT is happening (chart) + WHY is happening (thesis) = Where we are heading (probabilty)
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  • #93,598
  • Oct 1, 2025 4:03am Oct 1, 2025 4:03am
Quoting thebigshot
The question remains can the recent large resignation number of federal workers appear into this week NFP?
depends .. if reported last month .. maybe .. else .. next month.. actually good question
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #93,599
  • Oct 1, 2025 4:06am Oct 1, 2025 4:06am
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} depends .. if reported last month .. maybe .. else .. next month.. actually good question
Many gave resigns yesterday.
almost 100K.
Great possibility for Next month tho.
This week, if BLS actually published, we are expected an above than consensus.
Due to good retails sales,
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  • #93,600
  • Oct 1, 2025 4:35am Oct 1, 2025 4:35am
When you swing trade you should become a muslim, trading swap free account/islamic account.
It will save you tons of money.
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