Leverage is Poison

Hello Guys my Name is Muhammad.
i started this thread because i got banned by lot of threats,
when it comes to money, the hell this piece fo paper creates emotions, Joy, Sadness, anger,
so when sometimes if they dont like what you are saying they ignore you,
anyways.
in this thread no one ever be ignore,
just 3 rules,

1: share your opinion,
2: dont post screen shots of the trades, Just the charts (because i have been here for long ong time i have seen how it effects new traders, they see trades and think they can do it too with high leverage
we are here to exchange ideas,
i am a trader
not short term trades 5-10 pips
no 2-5$ Gold moves.
i was an analyst for 3 years for investment comany,
so trust me when i tell you.
there are traps of many kinds hidden,
designed specially for retail traders,
that i know for fact because i worked for people who most of the time knew the traps,
and avoided it.
you guys must know after 2008 it was mendatory for brokers to publish their real stats of live trading accounts.
and go and search any broekr you will see 75-80% retail traders loose money in this market.
its not because they have small accounts.
or dont know how to trade, the real problem is the information
remember INFORATION IS CURRENCY.
that is what i was taught anyways.

the news the fundamentals or research you think you are getting from Mostly is useless it is designed that way to confuse retail traders.
one economist is saying buy same time other is saying sell

the articles the news, many things most traders specially begginers or even some who are trading for years dont even realize why they are loosing.
i am here to tell you why, how to avoid it and trust me its a great market if you understand how it works.
only join if you really want to learn. and we are not here to make money, we are here to change our future, and get out of this rat race specially the middle class has been in past 150 years.
because before that there was no MIDDLE CLASS there were onoy poor and rich.
anyways to make money ot have you undertand waht money actually is
and how it works,

Wish you all the best guys.

Hi Muhammad, thanks for starting this topic. Your point about information being the real currency really caught my attention. Could you share an example of one of those retail traps you mentioned? I think it would help a lot of traders, including me, to understand how to spot them.

yes sure
as you say yesterday in GOLD and almost every single major pair.
i actually warned traders that is all i do.
i dont post trades my winning etc.
this is about knowledge learning.
i will be posting weekly fundamental analysis,
the thing about knowledge is ( phycology says if you are not invested then propably you will not take interest or will even forget 70% of the time)
anyways about GOLD.
it made high of 3700 rate cut should be good for gold, what most people were expecting is 3750 maybe in gold thread i read many traders saying buy buy
but what they dont understand is in past 10 years if you really look at the data 8 out of 10 time gold actually falls its non yeilding asset.
yes it has gain attention of many traders investors as a hedge against inflation but if you hold gold for 10 years and it is up 10% since there is no return like stocks coumpounding doesnt apply.
anyways check s&p 500. that was great move.
my point again
sometimes rate cut is not about by how much rather then why they did it.
inflation is high political pressure etc. made the mcut or it had been december.
according to my analysis.
but what happened gold goes up 30$ then down 50$ in few hours.
that is when retail traders loose money.
because they use stop loss. we use stop loss but there is a trategy about accepting when you are wrong and move on.
stop loss on trading platform like mt4 mt5 trdaing view wtc is a great trap.
currencies move 50 pips you stop loss got hit and its back.
in trading its not about making its about risk management,
hell not many traders even know how much leverage they are uding on every single trade.
they use it as pip
1k account they use 0.05 or even 0.1 lot thinking it just 1$ per pip.
the problem is you have to understand money
0.1 lot has 10K in it so you are suing 10:1 leverage.
that is high risk 100 pips and you will loose 10% of your account.
its not about pips or how much you make in a day or week.

another thing htey always set target daily i will make 2% or 20$ that is never good.
what i was taught never ever think about making money always think how uch you can afford to loose.
winning trades will make you money its automatic but loosing trades is waht matters.

i hope that helps.
not to brag but when you understand the fundamentals and how the real money markets works
this is what happens

Thanks for sharing, that makes a lot of sense. I never really thought about leverage in that way. About stop losses, do you usually avoid them and close trades manually, or just use wider stops? One thing im still curious about how do you know what the correct balance or fair price is for gold or for pairs like GBP/USD? Do you use fundamentals only, or combine with technicals?

hey muhammad ... your post and being an analyst for years really caught my attention .... so in your experience what are the things that retail traders do differently from the analyst who work for major companys and firms

Is the statistics of live accounts published by brokers (as required after 2008) publicly available? if it is publicly available, can you please share the links (just now I tried to google but I cannot seem to find it)?

I agree that there will be all kinds of traps for retail traders because big guys need liquidity ...Would love to hear more regarding these traps and of course how to avoid them.

its never one thing.

about stop loss i had my stop loss set to 3720 for example so i will wait for atleast 30 min candle to close above that.
and will give extra few minutes soemitmes if it is in over bought zone.
and i if i see reveral i wait other wise you have to admit you are wrong close the trade and move on.
the problem si not making loss.
as i saying goes ( what happens to you is not as important as much as how you react )
some traders actually most traders will start looking for other pairs and when you set you mind to seomthing trust me you will see thing which even arent there,
so what you do, you wait for few hours max nad you will find a trade that is the bloody technicals.
before 1990 there was not charts no mt4 mt5 trading view,
just numbers.
i still remmebr fe broker you have to call put in a trade.
anyways my point that is called revenge trading.
i dont trade much to be honest.
see the problem with trading is you are your laptop for 12 hours watching the market
that is not Investing.
people think they are making money but in reality they are still working for money.
no offense.
what i do is i put in a trade close the laptop and forget it for few hours and then come back and see how it did.
that need the rush of profit you want to close when gold is down 10$ you are affraid gold may move back and you will loose that 10$ move.
many do but LOSS oh dear gold no problem holding loss for -100 pips but +30 pips you will mind will play tricks on your to close the trade after few hours you see itis down 100 pips.
and some when close after that they see a drop they enter again with out realizing the retacement is always an option.
so same goes with loss.
when i take loss in a trade i stop never ever even open mt4 on mobile.
i leave my mobile at home.
i have 2 laptops
the second one i open watch netflix, play snooker fresh my mind.
and next day come back and trust me that ansger that greed the revenge trading soo many things i learned with time with practice how to avoid it.
its all about discipline.
i even made video's
i didnt actually i have people copying my trades. most of them are freelancers.
so they sue AI voice and adobe after effects to make faceless video.
i only write the raw script
from personal experience about spending money management Wealth building.
so many things in my mind i am making this to become a youtuber that is suckers game now.
i created the channel in 2010 imagine that.
2010 because youutbe was aquired by google in 2006 for 1.2B
but inever foudn the time to work on it.
i am not making these video's to earn from youtube what youtub with million subscriber and 1 millions views can get me 2-3k which i can make in trading in a day.
so why waste time.
i am making this becaue soon if not this year maybe after few years the life style you are used to today you will never be able to afford inflation, the tricks brands use.
the need for validation, fancy dinners,
everything matters when it comes to money.
read about warren buffet simple life living at 8K a month for 55 years,
and retired with 348B the kid who sold news paper at age of 10 and investing 1$ everyday in stocks
those who made it out this bloody cirle 80% are living it not because of higher education or they are smart
if that was the reason you will have million of people making money in trading, not loosing.
they are smart they are well educated
on the other hand i am what you guys call illetrate person came from arabs
i didnt like school because they were teaching arabic and useless things.
after 6th grade i never looked back.
a who didnt even knew how ot read ABC made it out.
a lot of effot time deication adn devotion trust me if it was easy those 80% know they are stuck but they dont know hwo to get out.
financial literacy is different then school education.
if you understand how money works how trading 15T Dollar markert works.
with crypt stocks fututres forex combined its actually more,
so if you cannot make money in this market then its just a gream that you will ever get out this rat race middle is in from past 145 years.
befoer that it was just poor and rich.
soo manyhtings you have to learn where we came from how we were born then your mindset will get hifted towards long term.
and that maybe you will have to work for money for 20 years but nect generation will never have to worry about it.
that is my personal expereience.
did you know 90% millionaires never get to Billion why because they get comfrtable wit what they have a business running,
making money life is good, thats all.

as they say hungrier one always win.
the hunger the need to have more, spend less, that is why elon must with 400B net worth still goes to office for 8 hours.
because then it becomes a bahit a need to make money a drug the rush of making money is muhc much worse/better then usual drugs.
here in this world money is POWER money is Control. money is respect.
money is everything bloody hell money can almost buy you anything now a days.

the investor mindset is very different they dont chase money they chase their system and the system makes money.
a lot i can do but to he bonest i am tired of writing.
i will have my other fellow traders give you more information.
how we made it out.

a cleaner, a security guard, a netcafe employee (ME), that was it.
all we care about money, nothing else.
we didnt want to earn money we wanted to make it.
because even if you agettin 50K salary you are earing money not making it.
have you ever heard someone said

elon musk earned 44B Dollars this qiarter or year.
NONO they say Elon musk made 44 Billion this year.
thae is the difference.


as they say
READERS ARE LEADERS.
so i still read atleast an hour a day.

because this is evolving market conditions last year was different and after trumo came its all politics not so you have to learn to adopt.
and techincals are just a tool to enter and getting out at certain levels.
i have technical traders who watch the pairs for me.

when its time i get a call i open watch and if i see everything is fine i put in a trade and then again close go away and repeat i am doing this from 2016
trust me it will then become a habits.

F. M. Alexander once said: We do not decide our future; we decide our habits, and our habits decide our future"

no no they have to write on the website the stats the % only.
they never real they cant actually, proted by the law of privacy.
most ofthe tim they dont even know who lost how much but the system the softwares and algorithms count how many people are loosing money and making
that is why you see on broker website the stats in warning section.
75-80% traders loose money those are retail traders.
some broker hae good traders investors with deep pockets so that is usually 75-80%
check any forex broker go th end of the main page nad read it.
but still the allure of trading couldnt make the mstay away from trading because they think they ca nbeat the market.
what they never learn or undersand is when hedgefunds put in trades that is real money no leverage billion and billions and trsut me they are always in sync they know they can only make if retatail traders loose.
if one hedgfunds loose and other wins next time one will win at the end some will end up wit heveryhting and some with nothing.
BUT NO NO hedgefunds investment companies they always make profit.
citadel makde 57% last year and kebb griffin made 4.6B in commissions.
that is the power of investing people invest you manage make money an get paid.
if you ever thought that you will make million$ from 10K account that i not impossible, counpounding will make it happen
but the consistency and discipline it needs that most cannot do.
that is the reason after 3 months or 6 months most traders not just loose the profit but their investments also.
please no offense i was one of them 36 accounts blown after that i realized i needed someone with knowledge to make me understand how this bloody market works.
and iw as lucky i found one.
but the first lesson iwas taught was nothing in this world is free.
they never do anything for free even if you are police officer in dubai police
yes they respect you so you have to do something help them in ways they cant do it sometimes,
then i got the chance to work with the real traders.
they dont publish news articls they dont show their money, they dont spend they are just machines making money,
and honestly forex, or futures etc is a tool to make money and then invest in real assets where you dont have to watch the market 15 hours a day even on job you are wathing from mobile at night you sleep and when you wake up first thing you do is check your phone to see where your open positions are..
i know because i have been there..
i came from nothing.
no education, nothing
money is not about being highly educated or smart.
trading is about discipline, a system you build for years every thing is a strategy your stoploss yout target when to get in when to get out.
everything.
then finally we come back to emotions.
revenge trading i just posted a huge artic and honeslt i am tired of writing.
i hope it will help read it on my thread.
have a good day.

Thanks for explaining all this.
Im just starting out, still learning to take my first steps in trading. I followed a course where i was taught that stop loss is sacred and that we should never trade without it. I also use leverage, but my goal is to one day trade without needing and i hope that one day i will be able to trade with the mindset you describe waiting, observing, and managing risk properly. I understand that stop loss can be tricky if used mechanically, but i also feel its an important tool for beginners like me.

Always.

what is LEVERAGE? a Double edge Sword


hello Guys my name is Arham.
i was told to explain what leverage actually is, how it effects your trading profits and losses.
.
i was same like you to be honest, 99% like you guys,
always thinking i can beat the market, make big profits in short term.
oh dear lord i was in an illusion thinking i can use leverage to make big money and honestly i did for a short term.
and then after 2 months lost it all sometimes it only took me days 3-4 days to loose my account.
and i was doing it again and again.
untill to be honest thank GOD found someone who told me to contact a guy name Muhammad.
the one who told us to Knowledge is Currency,
for weeks i strugle with how these guys talk about currencies. Stocks, Currencies, GOLD, even exotic pairs like USDMXN and USDZAR USDTRY they were trading.
there was no indicators there was not Fibo levels.
then dont evne bother to make lines,
i asked hundred of questions, and some i didnt underststood at the time i thought i am wasting my time.
but i to be honest have invested in learning in my future so i kept writing what i do understood at the time very little to be honest.
and i was not allowed to trade in LIVE account even my own.
i had 345$ account which was taken away from me. honest to ALLAH.
he told me to close the account and send him the money, oh dear i was shocked to be honest, i have to pay?
he told me, something i ddint believe it in the start i left for almost a month still rememer that time. like it was yesterday it has been 3 years now.
anyways back the point where i thought it was a scam because the thing i was told no one can teach you how to trade that you have to do your self.
your mindset is different every single trader is different like finger prints.
no one is 100% alike.
and thye told me to do my research i did.
and it is a fact (you can do for your self)
anyways i asked why i am not allowed to trade.
i have been told you are loosing because you think about making money. your mindset is made from the things you learned from internet and one wrong article can inspire you or a trader who might be wrong.
we do no follow we are traders we make our own analysis.
that will be with your for the rest of your life the system you will build in your mind how ot make money.
going back to when i left i was angry to be honest, how this is telling me i even have to change my life style for trading.
so i kep trading and anger is not good for growth.
just to prove him wrong i kept trading and was making money also and i was happy.
untill one day one wrong trade because i was using leverage at the point i ddint even know how much i was trading with 300$ account and i was trading with 3,000$ trade.
i was counting pips. like i did before 50 pips stop loss will cost me 15$ only i can make it in next trade.
and next trade i was doing with more leverage to recover the loss fast.
and i still remember it just took me an hour to find new trade.
i was usind techincals and charts. (thing about charts is your mind can play tricks on you, and you can see things you want to see, i wanted to sell so i found a setup, later i learned how phycology of trading is more importnat then good trades, how to copt with loss, because no matter mistakes will happen loss will hapen, how you copw with that loss alhamdullilah i was taught well)
so again i was using chart and had to proof them wrong so even with 0.02 0.03 and 350$ account it just took me a month to loose it all.
some traders told me it took me 3 months.
but the end was loss.
as i was warned before.
but i was stuburn could let it go,
but when i lost and my salary was 200$ i ddint knew what to do next.
i went back but i was told opportunity never knocks twice,
and iwas told to follow the posts on not even FF but other platform where weekly forecast was posted from his company.
i tried but with out solid base and no understanding of how the money market works why it makes wild moves the way it does.
sometimes with out reason about supply and demand,
how every single country every economy is different then other how they make money agriculture, US is Labor economy, Europe is mixed.
so anyways i did it again i started with 200$ again and made it to 630$ in just 2 months i was excited again this time i will do it.
i sent him the screen shot he replied with one message.
4 damaging word in this market is THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT.
and ya ALLAH it happened again.
after one month my equity was doen 330 balancw as 713$ i still remember because i was holding trades loosing trade in hope that its down 200 pips it will retrace.
finally i asked for help to be honest i asked multiple times i dont want to loose this time.
sir is very cold man when it ocmes to trading.
he told me close everything. what the hell why not hedge or something.
he said you have to learn to take losses because once you are confortable with loss and that time i was confused didnt want to close few hours later i think it was night when quity went up to 400$ i thought that is it i am fine.
what the hell iwas thinking i cant even remember now.
but i still remember it was monday when gold dipped 50$ when market opened and and i was lucky my whole account was not gone and at 9 am it was back at 280$
then i finally decided that is it i was wrong i closed and trust me i still remeber how hard itwas for me to clsoe the positions, and see my account balance from 734 to 284$
i sent the screen shot i was told congrats and trust me the anger i didnt even knew what to say i wanted to kill him because i lost 500$ and i he is saying congrats and welcoem to the real world.
and again after that i got explanation how loss effects our mind set.
i was tempted to make new trades and will make it again to 700$ it will take me some time but i will make it again.
and again i was told i have to let go.
stop trading the things i learned the techincals the indicators the things i thought will make me money, is designed that way it works most of the time for short term.
but in longer term for 2-3 years or 5 years they dont that is why we have 80% retail traders amking loss in this market and every other even Futures, stocks even crypto.
anyways i asked again can you please teach me he told me same thing we can guide how make you understand but you have build your own system a strategy we have for stoploss and other things you will be told and will practice 1 year 5 hours every day even on weekends i was sent 25 pages of analysis by banks about real estate, labour market soo manythings i could make time for my self.
and i am very very greatful sir.
because ya allah i still think about what if i left and i where i will be.
i was told nevr ever leave your job because that is your income for expenses etc.
take advantage of compounding and 10K was the starting account i got 20% profit share.
and i was fine because i learned the power of patience and time.
and still i am doing that because i was told i am not good at managing my own money it will take time after 3 years still sir tells me i am not ready.
so what to do?
i askedi was told buy stocks with the profits i am making the savings the bank are built for one thing to make money the only they do that is by making money from the money we keep in the banks.
so i bought nvidia shares almost 6k it was.
that was also suggested ot my muhammad.
nvidia is heality invested in AI and in future it will be worth it.
.
i am here to tell you untill today i managing investors money les stress less emotions, and greed the rules they put in place with the brokers i am amazed how they keep us in line.
i still sometimes struggle adter 3 years not to over trade or over leverage i am aloowed 2:1 levergage max.
that means with 25K account i am making 0.5 trade maximum i devide then in 3 trade 0.1 0.2 and 0.2
i trade in 5 pairs now.
equity must not drop more then 5% end of the day it must be lesst then 3% if i want to keep the positions open if not i close one trade and

this what they do teach you how the market works, and then he gave me 10k account after 7 or months i got 20k account so i am fine with 20%
because i am gettin beter i use techincals as entry and exit only not making lines or indicators.
i was taught keep it simple.
when it is over bough i get out when it is over sold i get out.
and i was also told that i can get my own investors if i want but the rules of trading must not be bent broken is not an option even bending the rules and strategy will some day cost me everything.
and still use it.
and it is working fine.

my advise to you guys is this.

Build a system your midset is what makes money trust me. from a loser who was loosing for 1 year 50$ here 100$ there 200$ another month.
i was not trading i was gambling.
so when we were given the opportunity to explain how i became a traders after loosing for 1 year.
i was always deleting my accounts old accounts and make new mt4 mt5 account and forget and start over.
i was told to look at my bank account how much i transfered to all brokers to be honest i changed my broker 4 times.
i was greedy low speads high leverage was tempting.
anways it took me another 1 year to recover my losses and not with my own money but by manaing investors money.
i dont honesly know how much he gets from investors we are never told.
its betwwen his company and what ever the agreement they do.
i am happy i am making 20% sometimes even good months i had i made 30%
i was told to slow down keep it steady dont get exited you made 30% next month you will try to chase the same thing trying to make 30% because you did last month. and you will end up loosing maybe making 10% and then you month you will start about thinking about 30% again.
what if this month i can make it.
that is not good for growth.
the month with 30% you were lucky market moved in your favor, it will not happen every month.
somemonths like last month sir was not free much so believ eit or not 7% i made still got a call telling me well done.
its not about how much you make its about much you risk if you are risking 5% and making 10% you are 50 times better trader then the rest of the world.
i traded in futures also, but to be honest that is long game.
i tried but i am happy with spot trading where i have the control to close the trades when ever i see fit.
that is me Arham Ebaad.
i was told to write about leverage.
but i wanted to share my journey how i made it.
yes to many actually 1k oe 1.2k a month not seem big but the one who was working 10 hours to make 200$
and now i am stiiing in home and amaking 5 times more, i am greatful to allah and sir

and i am sorry i wasted your time you guys want to learn not hear a sob story of a trader.
but there are lesson in this post maybe some will understand most will not i know because i was one of them.
now my mindset is different its friday and i did only one trade and out nothing else i will do today.
so iwas told to post maybe just maybe someone will learn something from this post even after years and hopefully it will help him/her in future.
the problem i found was remembering.
so i kept writing i have wrote in a year more then i wrote in 5 years in school.

so again i am sorry if i wasted your time, but you must learn that.
first understand how the market works why currencies move the way they do,
then you will be able ot make money for long long time.

wish you guys all the best.
i cincerly hope you will find someone or a group of traders are making money like pro making 10% sometimes 5% and to them that is enough,
i trade a little more usually i have 2 trades open i close them in small profit and move leave the pair and move to next for
eg if i want to BUY NZD $
i will go with eurnzd it is up 300 pips.
so eurnzd is better then nzdusd.
yesterday i sold made some money today also 1 trade 45 pips was enough.
i regret to be honest i dint go with gbpnzd
we read the report on pound economy is still not doing good i think sir posted on cable thread few days ago.
he is not good with explaining what he does is still unusal after to me,
he always at the bigger picture. and most traders are looking for short term setups.
so me and hitesh is hre to show how we trade on daily basis
1% we are out.
and close our laptop so we will not be tempted to over trade.

and still making 10% or 15% or even 7% i am fine with it as long as i am making profit i am good trader simple is that.

i hope someone will gain information knowledge or inspiration from it and will try to become a better trader.
good luck guys

I am about to loose my $880 account due to this leverage thing...equity lost

oh dear as i always ay LEVERAGE IS POISON.
that is the reason the brokers give you hell of leverage because they know retail traders 90% of the mtrade emotionaly FOMO and among other things,
so they cannot resist the leverage befoer it was 30:1 then 100:1 now waoo 1000:1 eve nsome broekrs offer 2000:1 why??
because they know you will use it and will loose,
and that money just dont wanish in thin air goes some where,
want to guess where??
i hope you have recovered atleast some of your losses i came here on FF adter years because i have met 1,000 of trader lost and still loosing its an addiction,
they loose come back and again loose in hopes that they will make it back.
my honest advise take a time off learn understand the market.
and restci your self from leverage.
use 1:1 everage for swing trades or 2:1 for short term trades.
and you have to admit you are wron no one is right all the time that is a fact.

geroge soros said: i barely survived in this market by admiting when i was wrong.

First rule : of great traders is they have engraved on things they use most even on my laptop i have 2 things
1: leverage is Poison (use it wisely)
2: do not trust the market.
and on my wallpaper i have 5 rules written in big words.
because human mind is amaing thing in forgettin things because it wants ot forget the pain.
because this bloody piepece of paper we call money creates emotions.
and those could our judgement,
maybe you read some article, read a post, and without knowing you mind started its magic i want to buy or sell
that is it.
why the hell you think there is hundred of websites posting 60 articles every day who is paying them?
it is all to confuse the traders so they can loose.
you have to find way to navigate the good from bad information on internet.
free websites every broker si sending you mixed singals.
if this happen eurwill hit the hig if that happens it wil go down.
and some whre in between these articles and posts your mid start trusting some of those analysis and you start trading.
no fundmental research no logical reason no rational trades,
you dont even realize what you are doing untill its too late.
sometime one analyst will be right and you think he is good you follow his analysy.
and next he is wrong you find another one who was right last time but maybe wrong next time.
who knows.
trust me those thousands of indicators free everywhere and free analysis are there to confusin and in that confusion traders loose money they htink they just lost 100$ in a trade i will make again tomorrow but if multiply with 44M traders and you got a hell of money.
soo many misconceptions about this market traders have.
the reality is always hidden a wel kept secret how big boys always make money hedge funds enever loose they make 35% a year or 50% a year that is 4% a month and they have billions invested in their company.
because they make 10 times more then banks and 5 times more then stocks.
my point understand learn how they do it if you did then you can become a trader.
fundamentals move the market in long term not techincals.
you will understand some day but the problem with most i found was it was too late for them,
in betweeen family, kids, jobs, morgate, rents they cannot even have time to learn nor the patience
you have to igve months even years to this market to understand if you are lucky you will ind a mentor who can teach you what he knows.
but strategy you have build your self because every human mind is different.
i had to build my own, because my mentor was different he think differntly about money risk and reward.
.
the truth is no one can teach you,
all you can hope for is find someone who can guide you to build your own system a strategy which will work for you for long long term.
you set rules and principles which no matter waht you never break not even bend and hopefully you will make it .
good luck mate.

Thank you so much for this helpful reply. Yes I have recovered my losses as I have already taken what I have invested. This 880$ was totally based on the profits I made, the original investment I have already withdrawn from the profits. But I regret losing my time invested . And yes ,I am on a break now, trying learning the things in more depth.

Please can you explain that how fundamentals lead the market in long term and not he technicals, because some people think otherwise

80% traders in this market is technical traders and around 80% loose money.
thats odd right.
simple explanation is.
look at GOLD today.
US shutdown and gold make the high then 60$ 70$ down from the high.
why is that?
techcnial suggested 4,000 right.
everyone was saying that.
i read it, but anthing above 3800 was too high for my blood.
so we waited 3850 sold
buyers lost almost 1.2B dollar liguidated with this move in 4 hours. according to world Gold council.
that is a lot of money.
and sellers from 37000-3750 lost almost 2.3 billion $
that is 3.5B someone govts hedge funds hell institutions made in just 3 days.
you may think that was technicals because you can find a reason if you want ot it was over bought that is actually true.
but again it was making highs and buyers were making money.
see the technical is just chart nothing else,
they cannot tell you what govt will do, or not do,
what NFP will be,
what bloody trump will say and shake the market.
those are fundamentals.
i just gave you an example of gold.
but look at USDJPY 150 to 148 when it was close to 150 technical analysts check many websites you will old articles from 2 days ago saying 151.50 if crossed 153.
so what happened??
fundamentals.
Japan didnt do any thing they just said they will look for fair price of the currency,
that is all it took for yen to drop 200 pips with it.
it took gbpjpy eurjpy nzdjpy chfjpy
i love that.

and fundamentals are not new that is a misconceptions many many traders have.
Fundamentals are read observe and watch how the market reacts to certain news and next time you will be ready
that is the simple way i can tell you.
but to gather such data like NFP of past 6 months and have a memory to remeber how market reacted.
is the game.

because one trader is never enough i have learned from the man who didnt even went to school,
but he understand money,
he taught us well,
when the group of people with rational mind comes together and make a decision and same people do the same trades in their accounts not hte DEMO shit we see all over.
but LIVE a counts.
that is what counts.
then you can eleminate many errors and will make less mistakes,
in forums or websites everyone has different opionion because they are technical traders.

a chart is worth thousand words.

if you want to sell you will a way in techincal resistence support high low some indicator etc.
you may see 5m or 15m chart a buy and 4 hour is telling you sell.
that is where traders get confused.
and that confusion is the main point.
go check read 100 articles you will find always double sided manipulate analysis.
they tell you gold is making high it could go to 4,000 and smae time they say retracement can get to 3700
how the hell is that supposed to help us?
many questions we were taught to ask our selves,
and we did for long time for a year i my self i am full tim etrader now no job nothing.
alhamdullilah doing fine.
my point is after 3 years i still struggle to keep greed in check the move in gold hell iwanted to sell at 3820 my ichy finger was ready anything above 3800 was find with me iw as willing to wait.
but i was told to be paitnet let it go,
let it make the high and the fear is great driver of thie this market.
so the fear took the gold high. everyone was buying i bought too but closed early small trade
finally yesterday we were told it could go to 3850
i my self got in 3830
and then again at 3855
because its my choice my money,
when it hit 70 i was thinking i made a mistake 3830 was a big mistake we have to give anypair breathing room.
for gold its 40-50$ it can go up 30$ in an hour and ocme back next hour.
it is like that.
anyways i honeslty love gold but hell it makes crazy moves,
but others dont even like they like major pairs cross pairs,
and honeslty i am still new so still strugling with the technicals, greed emotions etc.
but i am in good hands, i had made mistakes 100 of them actually but someone always rescued me hedge the position forget it make money and then when time is right he opened the hedge and i took 50% less loss someitmes even more.
and back on track.
if even with a mentor i am still strugling to control the urges how a trader sitting at home alone can control it???

that is the reason traders loose,
a shift in mindset. from article from news, from seeing someone trading or looking at chart can change your mind from buy to seller.
trust me i was like that i change my mind on daily basis.
one day i was selling and other i was buying.
not now.
but hell of mistakes i have done i cannot even remember how much.
and still we all do mistakes that is fine.
sometimes we are wrong but atleast i know how to manage money,
so end of the month i am in profit.
some months not so good.
its a long game. no short cuts no magical formula
learn the rules of the game play it better then others and money is just the result of how well you played.
i hope that will clear things up.

Regards,
Arham.

Wish you all the best.
the problem is searched for years about how fundamentals work,
how to make them but the internet is confusing,
you have find someone who knows and making money for long time,
and pray that he gives you the time needed to understand how fundamentals work.

anyways
if my honest advise will be go with major pairs they dont move fast and loose, and slow and steady you will learn.
good luck.

Hey Arham, after all that gold action, where do you see it going?

This helps a lot .thank you so much

honestly i have no IDEA.
but i do know this untill NFP it will make wild moves,
so if i were you i will be very very careful with GOLD.
to be honest we are in USDJPY buying not much 50-60 pips target but now a days its better to be safe then sorry.
gold move i catched already why over trade it.
why risk what i have made.
that is most traders problem when they make a profit they want to trade more to make more,
and when they take a loss they get greedy and mostly technical traders will find away to trade because 5m chart is telling you to buy and 4h is teeling to sell..
before 2000 there was no charts just numbers and according to a research from michgen 60% traders were making money,
it was old days follow the trend.
but now a day too much politics govt manipulating currencies, hedge funds even banks are involved in billion$ transactions.
make it tricky.
if we just look at gold oh dear
that is tricky now
one hand Powel will be retired in few months. then trump will choose who will obey his orders,
that means it is very much possible that 3% is not far away maybe 2026 end it will be there,,
that means gold could hit 4K
but on the other hand.
sir muhammad posted before the FED cut the rate.
i read it he wrote:
DONT COUNT THE DOLLAR OUT JUST YET.
he told us dollar will get stronger because of money flow.
lets see how it works.
when a govt cuts interest rate for a short term it may be bad but
sometimes its is better because then you have 4% yearly you are getting on your millions of dollars in the bank but stocks are giving you 10%
so common sense is take your money out and invest.
not in stocks per say but any business it will propabily will give you more then 4% a year am i wrong??
so then business will frow mroe people will get jobs more the companies will make more tax they will pay actually every one pays taxes.
and govt will get more money more funds.
so in a way it is not bad for economy.

another thing too much weaker currency is not good for the economy and
als too much strong surrency si also bad for the economy.
it ties to imports and exports for most countires that is the biggest revenue stream. from thousands of years.
so if the currency is too strong for eg YEN is too strong like it was in 2011 70$ japan made their money policy loose 0% even went o negative.
because companies put pressure on govt they are paying a lot of tax billions infact.
so when they currency is too strong and they sell cars they will get less yen,
but if currency is too weak then importers will get into trouble they have to pay a lot more yen to get the same goods or what ever they are importing.
so currency have to be in fair price for the economy to grow.
once you understand that then in part trading becomes cimple.
i ma talking about currencies every country is differnt so their economy is different so you have to look how it works. how govt works,
once you understand that it will become very simple

on the other hand GOLD is not a currency it is a commodity,
it yeils nothing only if the price goes up then you get to sell and make profit.
but also it is a hedge against inflation war geopolitical problems investors tend to return to gold.
because it is not tied to any country in the world.
lets say tomorrow USA goes to war with Russia,
you have gold you take your gold move to any country sell your gold and start your business else where.
that is physical gold.
so the real question we were discussing is
Are We Going Back to Gold Standard?
that is a possibility according to Mnay nobel prize winning economist who dont publish or say anything for free.
it costs money to get the real information,
now tradingeconomics.com has 399$ a month not many can afford that.
because they dont understand the value or how to even understand the data they will be getting
most traders are techncial traders,
they understand charts and make lines
we dont i use to have 4 indicators and 100 lines
before i found a group of traders who actually knew how money market works and hell i was going it all wrong.
they dont even look at charts just when they want to enter they look for sweet spot as we call it now,
they enter and exit on technical levels like sold gold and say 3800 that was 70$ drop even i got out at 3820 catched 30$ move that was much better then waiting and hoping it will go up or down.
and after that 3800 was 70$ drop from high to low.
i knew almost everyone knew gold will retrace but i was taught that way to never trade for a retracement you never know where it will end.
so i stayed away even looking gold agian at 3850 i went in with minimum trade size 0.01
no one else did they are in YEN.
but i like to trade small lots if i made 100$ i can risk 10$ to see how it goes
that's me. risking 1% to make another 1% if not i already up 5% so if end the week with 4% or 5% i am very happy.
even 5% a month is fine with me because not iam not chasing money like before i use compounding and trust me albert einstein was not wrong.

i hope that helps.

good luck guys.
just to see how it will work out.
3850 3800 3750 3900 phycological levels as you guys call them..
anyways