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The Swamp

  • #125,141
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:16am Sep 29, 2025 8:16am
When price b/o it often retest the b/o point, before proceeding in the b/o direction. That was the thesis to look for a short in the 1729/36 area. It don't always work.
Since the b/o to me was 1729 or 1736. It was support. Meaning when it returned, it may resist and be a potential short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,142
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:19am Sep 29, 2025 8:19am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i will need to see a strong rejection now from the bear otherwise i think bull might be winning the race
It would not my feeling to see that
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,143
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:33am Sep 29, 2025 9:33am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i will need to see a strong rejection now from the bear otherwise i think bull might be winning the race
I like to see strong rejections too. I know sometimes price will reach a point with no real noticeable rection. Just walking up to a line and stopping, but not running from it until a later time. This area can go either way. I think both have done their job here at 1729. In the process it may be balanced in this area. Closing below 1729, I think favors 1634.5. After that it may be right back here again. Or 1540
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,144
  • Sep 29, 2025 11:23am Sep 29, 2025 11:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I like to see strong rejections too. I know sometimes price will reach a point with no real noticeable rection. Just walking up to a line and stopping, but not running from it until a later time. This area can go either way. I think both have done their job here at 1729. In the process it may be balanced in this area. Closing below 1729, I think favors 1634.5. After that it may be right back here again. Or 1540
Pa is more neutural/bullish to me now as we don’t see much of a bear actions. Let see if bear can defend 1729 at the time of daily close.

1557 unlikely.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,145
  • Sep 29, 2025 11:47am Sep 29, 2025 11:47am
i think the fundamental outlook may not support 1.03 unless we see a u turn in many things…

govt shutdown, fed independence, concern of a slowing employment/economy in the US, further rate cuts, etcs are all favouring a weak dollars.

Breaking a significant rising trendline last week is massive! I still think bear may take us a bit lower but there are too much headwinds
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,146
  • Sep 29, 2025 3:39pm Sep 29, 2025 3:39pm
Today did close below 1729.. To improve my odds. I would like to see the 12h close below 1680. -1729 is an improvement
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,147
  • Sep 29, 2025 3:41pm Sep 29, 2025 3:41pm
Quoting johncen
i think the fundamental outlook may not support 1.03 unless we see a u turn in many things… govt shutdown, fed independence, concern of a slowing employment/economy in the US, further rate cuts, etcs are all favouring a weak dollars. Breaking a significant rising trendline last week is massive! I still think bear may take us a bit lower but there are too much headwinds
I may try a 1640ish long if it comes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,148
  • Edited 4:34pm Sep 29, 2025 4:10pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may try a 1640ish long if it comes.
same here. 1610-40 levels i will start building some longs

i m not sure if we can get there despite closing the day bekow 1730 but bear is weak for now.

will need pa below 1722 1700 maybe pre London to trigger a drop. But we may see a bounce in NY session to close the month back near 1730
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,149
  • Sep 29, 2025 4:26pm Sep 29, 2025 4:26pm
Maybe 1780 first?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,150
  • Sep 29, 2025 7:35pm Sep 29, 2025 7:35pm
Quoting johncen
Maybe 1780 first?
tonight/tomorrow a b/o may be fairly close. sustained below 1717 or above 1731
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,151
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:12pm Sep 29, 2025 8:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its not looking like a fall atm. It tested 1729. So far its held. It may be a little sneaky, and not too noticeable. PA is still close to it at 1729 atm. If it lost footing it may mean something.. 1723/24 could form some r.. I dont know.. {image}
Back below 1729 with some closes below 1723
sustained below 1717 may be a real b/o..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,152
  • Sep 30, 2025 12:40am Sep 30, 2025 12:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Back below 1729 with some closes below 1723 sustained below 1717 may be a real b/o.. {image}
pa is now on the bull’s side
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,153
  • Sep 30, 2025 1:22am Sep 30, 2025 1:22am
unless iy falls back below 1729 to close this next h.... This is likely a bullish b/o
Back below 1729 and 1717 on this h close a likely rejection
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 4 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,154
  • Sep 30, 2025 1:50am Sep 30, 2025 1:50am
Quoting gatorinla
unless iy falls back below 1729 to close this next h.... This is likely a bullish b/o Back below 1729 and 1717 on this h close a likely rejection {image}
i have 1780 as potential sell spot…. Not sure if it will work though
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,155
  • Sep 30, 2025 2:24am Sep 30, 2025 2:24am
Quoting gatorinla
unless iy falls back below 1729 to close this next h.... This is likely a bullish b/o Back below 1729 and 1717 on this h close a likely rejection {image}
A bullish side close.. 1717/30 may be a buy..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,156
  • Sep 30, 2025 2:38am Sep 30, 2025 2:38am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i have 1780 as potential sell spot…. Not sure if it will work though
Maybe a sling to 1864..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,157
  • Sep 30, 2025 2:57am Sep 30, 2025 2:57am
Looking for some longs off bullish triggers to 1865.. tp probably 1864
1828 could be a closer tp. 1731 was a b/o point. Near it or 1730 LC may be a better entry.. Since it bullish.. its less likely to go below 1731.too far, It may not retrace to 1730
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,158
  • Sep 30, 2025 3:15am Sep 30, 2025 3:15am
last day of the month. expecting strange moves today. Don't be a hero.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,159
  • Sep 30, 2025 4:42am Sep 30, 2025 4:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
last day of the month. expecting strange moves today. Don't be a hero.
yea not prepared to trade today, come bsck tomorrow after month end to see where we at
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,160
  • Sep 30, 2025 5:54am Sep 30, 2025 5:54am
Quoting gatorinla
Looking for some longs off bullish triggers to 1865.. tp probably 1864 1828 could be a closer tp. 1731 was a b/o point. Near it or 1730 LC may be a better entry.. Since it bullish.. its less likely to go below 1731.too far, It may not retrace to 1730
Its now back in this area 1730 area.. To be bullish it shouldn't go much deeper. If it continues to fall below 1717, I may have read this wrong.
Anyway I went long.
1864 or 1828 I likely will want 1865 and more later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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