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The Swamp

  • #125,121
  • Sep 28, 2025 3:57pm Sep 28, 2025 3:57pm
Have a good trading week. Don't forget we have a lot of jobs reports and market and USD are both very sensitive on any surprise.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,122
  • Sep 29, 2025 12:01am Sep 29, 2025 12:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if above 1729 Tuesday. It will miss the structure I have. In this case 1747 would likely be taken by Wednesday. Pa would be back above 1736 again, Bullish places. The Q is still open pa went near 270 pips or 3/4 pips toward 1556, 181 at 1736. The mid point. Tuesday it with/if bears help it should be below 1556, or above 1736.9 with bulls. This second algo considers under 1729 a bearish quarter close. The problem with this quarter close now. Is its also pulled from a 6 month close. The 6 month close is not until the year ends
I cant say it wont continue bullish.. but right here at 1729 36 47 is a good place for a turn. Bears want it running South below 1729.. back below 1699 sustained is a little neutral. above still bullish.. Sustained below 1670 may be a bear b/o
A 12h close below 1680 would maintain the day bear structure.. That seems like a lot to ask 50 pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,123
  • Sep 29, 2025 2:42am Sep 29, 2025 2:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I cant say it wont continue bullish.. but right here at 1729 36 47 is a good place for a turn. Bears want it running South below 1729.. back below 1699 sustained is a little neutral. above still bullish.. Sustained below 1670 may be a bear b/o A 12h close below 1680 would maintain the day bear structure.. That seems like a lot to ask 50 pips
no sign of bear yet, not sure if they will defend this critical spot
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,124
  • Sep 29, 2025 3:30am Sep 29, 2025 3:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I cant say it wont continue bullish.. but right here at 1729 36 47 is a good place for a turn. Bears want it running South below 1729.. back below 1699 sustained is a little neutral. above still bullish.. Sustained below 1670 may be a bear b/o A 12h close below 1680 would maintain the day bear structure.. That seems like a lot to ask 50 pips
morning again,
in short term we should not break 1.174 area and close above on daily
but spikes can happen since we have so many important reports.
bulls have to defend 1.17
So only below bears have strength again

GL everyone
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,125
  • Sep 29, 2025 6:18am Sep 29, 2025 6:18am
Quoting johncen
{quote} no sign of bear yet, not sure if they will defend this critical spot
Just staying below 1729 may be bears. The day structure has turned bullish again. Somewhat of a stalemate. Pa is in the bullish b/o daily at 1699+.. Bears probably need to sustain below 1670 to b/o.. but 1670 uses most of the adr the adr.. 1556 looks too far. But if its to happen it should be within the next 21.5hs.. That would be a steep drop given the time restraints
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,126
  • Sep 29, 2025 6:32am Sep 29, 2025 6:32am
The last 2 were aggressive enough in slope.
1556 would be double in length. That looks far.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,127
  • Sep 29, 2025 6:34am Sep 29, 2025 6:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just staying below 1729 may be bears. The day structure has turned bullish again. Somewhat of a stalemate. Pa is in the bullish b/o daily at 1699+.. Bears probably need to sustain below 1670 to b/o.. but 1670 uses most of the adr the adr.. 1556 looks too far. But if its to happen it should be within the next 21.5hs.. That would be a steep drop given the time restraints
yea 1557 looks far now unless the day close back below 1670.

bull still around and could push higher!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,128
  • Sep 29, 2025 6:35am Sep 29, 2025 6:35am
Quoting gatorinla
The last 2 were aggressive enough in slope. 1556 would be double in length. That looks far. {image}
we will need one in NY and another one tomorrow.

not impossible but seemd hard for the bear. Especially while longer tf remain a up trend
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,129
  • Sep 29, 2025 6:57am Sep 29, 2025 6:57am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea 1557 looks far now unless the day close back below 1670. bull still around and could push higher!
Its not looking like a fall atm. It tested 1729. So far its held. It may be a little sneaky, and not too noticeable. PA is still close to it at 1729 atm. If it lost footing it may mean something.. 1723/24 could form some r.. I dont know..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,130
  • Sep 29, 2025 7:06am Sep 29, 2025 7:06am
Quoting johncen
{quote} we will need one in NY and another one tomorrow. not impossible but seemd hard for the bear. Especially while longer tf remain a up trend
Back to the break out point after 1646.. Where is the liquid?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,131
  • Sep 29, 2025 7:08am Sep 29, 2025 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its not looking like a fall atm. It tested 1729. So far its held. It may be a little sneaky, and not too noticeable. PA is still close to it at 1729 atm. If it lost footing it may mean something.. 1723/24 could form some r.. I dont know.. {image}
See if 1723 decides to be R. 1736.8 and 1729 have their ghost already
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,132
  • Sep 29, 2025 7:22am Sep 29, 2025 7:22am
Quoting gatorinla
After a breakdown.. 1690/170x may push it to test 1731/37 as a R.. {image}
I dont like the calendar so much. But i got back in with those shorts. It shouldn't take long to know if wrong. Plus 1747x is a wrong sign for me..
If right by the time my indicators let me know it would be 50 pips lower
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,133
  • Sep 29, 2025 7:31am Sep 29, 2025 7:31am
Quoting johncen
{quote} we will need one in NY and another one tomorrow. not impossible but seemd hard for the bear. Especially while longer tf remain a up trend
I may be wrong.. The day structure went bullish over the previous to me.. It was still below the weekly and monthly. Also below 1729.. I took a shot because this was the b/o point area. A retest of support possibly being R now. I thought there would be liquid here.. So far not a lot to report. this was my place i wanted to reload last week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,134
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:08am Sep 29, 2025 8:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont like the calendar so much. But i got back in with those shorts. It shouldn't take long to know if wrong. Plus 1747x is a wrong sign for me.. If right by the time my indicators let me know it would be 50 pips lower
The head hunters are probably looking to 1746.9 + 20.. about 1757.. I gave it a few pips above for a s/l
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,135
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:21am Sep 29, 2025 8:21am
if 1.0351 is the attractor.. the 1918 high has this trajectory to it
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,136
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:25am Sep 29, 2025 8:25am
Quoting gatorinla
if 1.0351 is the attractor.. the 1918 high has this trajectory to it {image}
the 1h has it in the area of that 0351 trajectory.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,137
  • Sep 29, 2025 8:50am Sep 29, 2025 8:50am
Right at about 1756 on a 5 min
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,138
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:03am Sep 29, 2025 9:03am
Quoting gatorinla
Right at about 1756 on a 5 min {image}
1m like this
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,139
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:07am Sep 29, 2025 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1m like this {image}
i will need to see a strong rejection now from the bear otherwise i think bull might be winning the race
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,140
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:40am Sep 29, 2025 9:40am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i will need to see a strong rejection now from the bear otherwise i think bull might be winning the race
Its not going to make 1556 now.. so it will expire. It can still make + -1729.. I think that may influence the next quarter
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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