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  • #19,981
  • Sep 15, 2025 6:38pm Sep 15, 2025 6:38pm
18pt range in the SPX today. Not worth trading, will put on some time spreads and see what happens. I expect a very dovish Fed and yet more melt-up. Small caps the dumb money. I will trade cldrs and/or diags in RUT and SPX Likely go 60/40 long/short.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,982
  • Sep 16, 2025 6:03am Sep 16, 2025 6:03am
This heavy call skew is present in pre-market hours, evens out at the cash open. Compare today. This makes a difference in the cost of spreads and is a tradeable advantage, if one has an account with a broker that allows around the clock options trading. Only IB and Schwab have that in the US afaik. I might have to go back to IBKR....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,983
  • Sep 19, 2025 6:26pm Sep 19, 2025 6:26pm
Quoting The Fool
18pt range in the SPX today. Not worth trading, will put on some time spreads and see what happens. I expect a very dovish Fed and yet more melt-up. Small caps the dumb money. I will trade cldrs and/or diags in RUT and SPX Likely go 60/40 long/short.
The RUT dbl cldr shown above made money, but not a ton. The puts came off for $1.50 and the calls yesterday (with RUT at 2470) I took about $4. Anyway I'd mostly given up on RUT for directional trades and probably still will avoid it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,984
  • Sep 19, 2025 6:50pm Sep 19, 2025 6:50pm
SPX with 7 straight weekly green candles. All but one under 125pts. Suicide to fight this trend. Only 3 red weeks out of the last 15. BTFD is really all you need to know in a market like this. If you even get a FD to B.

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If you want to try to catch a dip, maybe better to use some low to no-cost diagonals, and give yourself some time, 2-3 weeks or more, so you don't go broke....

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No cost, but you'd be wise to hedge that steep tail risk. These things can clean your clock in an unexpected, early sharp drop.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,985
  • Sep 21, 2025 11:36am Sep 21, 2025 11:36am
Hey my friend. I'm a bit lost. Do you know if there is any good broker out there with FX-Options? The spreads are awefull most times - that's how they make money. For example: GBP/USD you get options like 0.00341 / 0.00422 (dont get fooled, the spread is most times 10 pips because the option is moving,- you don't buy and sell in the same second).

Anyway how are your experiences on CBOE? I see you only trade S&P ... I think that has a reason... it is such a pity that there are no good options on FX.
Do you have any other resource as CBOE ?( I have ava trade but the pricing is aweful due to too high spreads)

Thanks in advance. Keep up your updates here, thank you
  • #19,986
  • Sep 21, 2025 2:13pm Sep 21, 2025 2:13pm
Quoting JackintheBox
Anyway how are your experiences on CBOE? I see you only trade S&P ...
I don't trad FX opions & I'm not aware that CBOE is a retail broker at all. Best advice I can offer is look at IB - Interactive Brokers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,987
  • Sep 22, 2025 6:02am Sep 22, 2025 6:02am
I checked FX-Options at Ava Trade very closely and I can say they earn their money with the spreads. They are too high, so you are always on the loser side, no matter what you do, except some exotic strategies. Very sad cause I would need them for my system. Thanks for reply.
  • #19,988
  • Sep 23, 2025 8:40pm Sep 23, 2025 8:40pm
getting a 50-pin midweek, I look at 00 hedged calendars
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,989
  • Sep 23, 2025 8:44pm Sep 23, 2025 8:44pm
an identical trade @ 1-lot SPX could hedge with 1-lot XSP or SPY
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  • #19,990
  • Edited 9:06pm Sep 23, 2025 8:52pm | Edited 9:06pm
Same idea in NDX, but, it's quite dear. You can delta match QQQs to hedge - look at the applicable NDX hedge strikes and use the same delta @ QQQ - here I would long some Sep29 10-12 delta QQQs on either end, like a few each @ 580 and 610.

SPX and NDX are well correlated, so I usually avoid NDX unless I see something exploitable.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,991
  • Sep 27, 2025 2:23am Sep 27, 2025 2:23am
Combo for NFP week. I will take profit on most units on the day b4 the NFP, if that's in the cards, but will leave some running, too. I'd love to hit a 10/3 winner for the put fly, somewhere around a 6550 pin, which could pay > 10:1.
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  • #19,992
  • Edited 1:56pm Sep 28, 2025 1:33pm | Edited 1:56pm
This was hashed out in tastylive vids a while back. 15-30% return on bp, ok. He says he's had 2 losing months in the last 3-4 years. Definitely a discretionary strategy to be deployed in bull runs.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,993
  • Sep 28, 2025 7:02pm Sep 28, 2025 7:02pm
A really nice video about skew and how to use it. Clear, concise, to the point, and with good examples.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,994
  • Sep 29, 2025 5:23am Sep 29, 2025 5:23am
Quoting JackintheBox
Hey my friend. I'm a bit lost. Do you know if there is any good broker out there with FX-Options? The spreads are awefull most times - that's how they make money. For example: GBP/USD you get options like 0.00341 / 0.00422 (dont get fooled, the spread is most times 10 pips because the option is moving,- you don't buy and sell in the same second). Anyway how are your experiences on CBOE? I see you only trade S&P ... I think that has a reason... it is such a pity that there are no good options on FX. Do you have any other resource as CBOE ?( I have...
I do options on futures: /6E - /6J - /6B - /6C - /6A - /6S and micros for contracts.
Ready for War
  • #19,995
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:00pm Sep 29, 2025 9:00pm
Sell 7dte, buy 60dte -- might look at buying 90dte, or 120dte, but sell iteratively 7dte, try to narrow the diagonal gap, looks like you can probably harvest $250/week on an XSP 1-lot, but maybe more, as you can roll the winners during the week. At the beginning of each new week, you can look at rolling down/up the long dated calls/puts. The goal would be to do the rolls at low cost. Ultimately, you're selling the weeklies to bring in the longs to as close to a straddle as possible. Might look at doing same with RUT. SPX a bit to costly, but could work up to it. Loser management on the weeklies is no cost/low cost rolling and that includes rolling both sides.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,996
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:20pm Sep 29, 2025 9:20pm
you can calendarize on RUT and do ok, maybe get $1k or better per week, same plan, look to roll down/up the calls puts. Could look to time the longs around vol-rich events - FOMC or inflation data releases. Next FOMC is 10/29, so look at buying Nov7 and sell weeklies up til 10/24, then see what kind of strangle you are left with.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,997
  • Sep 29, 2025 9:29pm Sep 29, 2025 9:29pm
"Could look to time the longs around vol-rich events - FOMC or inflation data releases." ...or earnings - look at the end-Oct megacap earnings and consider this kind of campaign for positioning.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,998
  • Sep 30, 2025 3:08am Sep 30, 2025 3:08am
The combo for Friday....does not include the put calendar, yet, but I will add it Tues, as I think there's a good opp for a 1-2% drop Thurs-Fri. The market is addicted to data and the data will be withheld during the shutdown - no jobless claims Thurs, no NFP Fri. Oh my....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,999
  • Oct 11, 2025 11:04pm Oct 11, 2025 11:04pm
with SPX down about 115 Friday, I entered this AM/PM double diagonal. High hopes for further slide into next week and a pin around 6400 by Thursday.

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  • #20,000
  • Oct 11, 2025 11:27pm Oct 11, 2025 11:27pm
I can trade these wide, 10-lot, SPX dbl diagonals on a 2wk cycle for consistent profit of $3k to $30k per week.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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