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The Swamp

  • #125,001
  • Sep 24, 2025 5:21am Sep 24, 2025 5:21am
Good morning
We’ve reached the 1.176 support, nice. If it breaks, we’ll revisit 1.172 and maybe lower.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,002
  • Sep 24, 2025 7:02am Sep 24, 2025 7:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The have been lined up for structure for 8 days now. They took a hh to 1918.. Then went back to 1736.. Atm this current pa is not halfway. back to 1918. Bulls are struggling to get this up Its not just the bears struggling.
The day and the week structure turned red.. 1736 is Testing as support. It dont turn on pa alone being below..The q has 4 days.
1771 could resist
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,003
  • Sep 24, 2025 7:23am Sep 24, 2025 7:23am
Pa is below the 1h to 5min trending ema's i have. Pa is still on the bullish side of the 4h at 1688.. If it falls below 1736.. 1688 may force a bounce back to 1736 to watch for. The difference that may cause the retrace to 1556 is the new bearish day and week structure helping to break 1736. It never had that help on other attempts. Pa is on the bullish side of 1556 and 1736..Its looks like 1736 can fail. The fat lady has the last word.
Its less than 200 pips from here to 1556.. It has 4 days.. It can be done.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,004
  • Sep 24, 2025 7:52am Sep 24, 2025 7:52am
Danger Buck Rogers Danger
The candles on the left are had the area as R.. Since it been support.. On a 4 day run it may not have as many wicks as the left side
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,005
  • Sep 24, 2025 7:54am Sep 24, 2025 7:54am
Quoting gatorinla
Pa is below the 1h to 5min trending ema's i have. Pa is still on the bullish side of the 4h at 1688.. If it falls below 1736.. 1688 may force a bounce back to 1736 to watch for. The difference that may cause the retrace to 1556 is the new bearish day and week structure helping to break 1736. It never had that help on other attempts. Pa is on the bullish side of 1556 and 1736..Its looks like 1736 can fail. The fat lady has the last word. Its less than 200 pips from here to 1556.. It has 4 days.. It can be done. {image}
interesting PA with so many bearish news for USD.
Maybe Europe starts buying energy from US at a higher prices. Should help the dollar
I think we could see some big moves if we can avoid gov shutdown.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,006
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:27am Sep 24, 2025 8:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} interesting PA with so many bearish news for USD. Maybe Europe starts buying energy from US at a higher prices. Should help the dollar I think we could see some big moves if we can avoid gov shutdown.
Europe is already buying a lot from here. Some weapon sales to NATO wont hurt. Increases in NATO defence favors the usd. The usd was already at a low. Eur/Usd on the higher end
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,007
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:32am Sep 24, 2025 8:32am
Quoting gatorinla
Danger Buck Rogers Danger The candles on the left are had the area as R.. Since it been support.. On a 4 day run it may not have as many wicks as the left side {image}
if we closed the day below and not going back above 1760 i consider a break out below the rising trendline since Feb, this is significant for the bear!
4 days towards lower level, i will avoid buying until we are near 1600 1557 levels
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,008
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:36am Sep 24, 2025 8:36am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} interesting PA with so many bearish news for USD. Maybe Europe starts buying energy from US at a higher prices. Should help the dollar I think we could see some big moves if we can avoid gov shutdown.
Powell spoke yesterday and from what I can gather, after the speech the likihood of another rate cut this year dropped tremendously. But this speech was around noon EST, so I am not sure if that is helping lead to this sell off or not. Seems a long time to digest that news, but that could be part of it.
  • #125,009
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:38am Sep 24, 2025 8:38am
If you think its bullish.. Here is your chance.. ..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,010
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:41am Sep 24, 2025 8:41am
Quoting gatorinla
If you think its bullish.. Here is your chance.. .. {image}
I'm short from 18xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,011
  • Sep 24, 2025 8:45am Sep 24, 2025 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm short from 18xx
i will avoid buying - only scalp long allowed!
we might see a new low soon.

Not sure if tomorrow we will do a retest near 1760?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,012
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:07am Sep 24, 2025 9:07am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i will avoid buying - only scalp long allowed! we might see a new low soon. Not sure if tomorrow we will do a retest near 1760?
I dont know.. I suspect its a quarter move. A quarter move would be less affected by the smaller indicators, and levels acting as a support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,013
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:14am Sep 24, 2025 9:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know.. I suspect its a quarter move. A quarter move would be less affected by the smaller indicators, and levels acting as a support.
yea if we started the move we may not see much retracement.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,014
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:20am Sep 24, 2025 9:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm short from 18xx
same, 1.172 important S. want to see it below.
1.17 also weekly has some support so all area 1.17-1.172 important S.

On the other once we break down, all area > middle of June to mid September big resistance 1.175 -1.18X looks ugly
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,015
  • Sep 24, 2025 11:18am Sep 24, 2025 11:18am
no 1h closes below 1736 yet.. the next h close is a 4h.. see chart ..the older month at 1682... it may have some residual bounce.. buts stale..ADR was met already.. These slow moving noves with little retrace are powerful
the next h may through and hold below
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,016
  • Sep 24, 2025 12:08pm Sep 24, 2025 12:08pm
Lets see if that's enough
4h close below 1736
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,017
  • Sep 24, 2025 1:47pm Sep 24, 2025 1:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
no 1h closes below 1736 yet.. the next h close is a 4h.. see chart ..the older month at 1682... it may have some residual bounce.. buts stale..ADR was met already.. These slow moving noves with little retrace are powerful the next h may through and hold below {image}
Gold also first signs of weakness in a while
My UJ going well also
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,018
  • Sep 24, 2025 1:48pm Sep 24, 2025 1:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see if that's enough 4h close below 1736 {image}
hard for me at this lvl cause every time we get to this type of support Bulls take lead.
and today was into a weak stock market and then EUR did not fall further.

So not easy here. But like I've said USD gain some strength across the board
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,019
  • Sep 24, 2025 1:49pm Sep 24, 2025 1:49pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} UJ was one of my fav trades this year, long again there, from FED day, I think we may see 150 again at least.
I think we can go way higher.
Especially if we avoid shutdown. Then 1.16 imo for E/U and 150 for U/J is instant
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,020
  • Sep 24, 2025 1:53pm Sep 24, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see if that's enough 4h close below 1736 {image}
it is promising as usdx also climbed above 97.7.

now we need a new lower low and daily closed below it
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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