Morning Briefing

28 Aug 25. 0816 IST or 0246 GMT or 2246 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR are likely to trade within the 99-97, 1.1500-1.1750 and 101.50-103.00 regions respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can get dragged to 170-169 and 145 as well if a break below 171 and 147 happens. USDCNY can test 7.14 soon. Aussie and Pound are headed towards the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the pairs extend the rise further or fall back will have to be seen. USDINR was closed yesterday. While below 88, a fall back towards 87.50-87.25 looks possible. US GDP Data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down again and keeps alive the chances of testing their support. Overall, a broad sideways range is possible for some time. The US PCE data release will be important to watch. A soft PCE number will strengthen the case for rate and drag the yields lower. The German yields have reversed lower and can test their support in the near term. Failure to rise back from the support can drag them lower. The 10Yr GoI spiked breaking above its key resistances and has come down again. While the resistance holds, there are good chances for the yield to come down in the coming days.

The Dow Jones has risen back above 45000 and could head towards 46000-47000 while the Dax slipped yesterday after weak German Consumer sentiment data. Dax could be bearish towards 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24600-24500. Nikkei is slightly up today and needs a decisive break above 42700/800 to rise further, while Shanghai has declined on the 200% tariff threat by the US and could decline to 3700 while below 4000.

Crude prices recovered on short covering but faces resistance near $68 (Brent) and $64 (WTI), keeping it vulnerable to $67–$65 and $62–$60 respectively in the near term. Gold is testing $3,450, a break of which can take it to $3,500, else it risks pulling back to $3,350. Silver remains bullish towards $40 and beyond, while Copper, after a sharp bounce from $4.3745, is challenging resistance at $4.50 and could head towards $4.60–$4.65 if broken. Natural Gas is holding strong near $2.90, and a sustained break higher could extend the rise to $3.00–$3.10, though failure to clear may drag it back to $2.80–$2.70.

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29 Aug 25. 0812 IST or 0242 GMT or 2242 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.1750-1.1500 and 103.00-101.50. EURJPY and USDJPY need to fall below 171 and 147 to extend the fall to 170-169 and 145 as well. USDCNY slipped below 7.14 and can test the deeper support at 7.12 before bouncing back later. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to bring higher levels into picture. If the USDINR holds above 87.50, it can attempt to rise back towards 87.75-88.00 again. IN GDP, US Personal Income & US PCE Data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields are coming close to their key support. Failure to sustain above their support can drag them down further in the coming days. The US PCE data release today can be the key in deciding that. A soft PCE number can drag the yields lower as it will strengthen the case for rate cuts. The German yields are coming down to test their support as expected. They have to bounce back from the support to keep the chances alive of the rise and avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. The resistance is holding well as expected. The yield can fall more.

The Dow Jones could head towards 46000-47000 while above support near 44500. The Dax can test 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24400-24200. Nikkei too can dip to 42500-42300 while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700.

Crude oil settled higher on short covering but as long as Brent faces resistance near $68.00/$68.50 and WTI near $64.50, the broader view remains bearish towards $67.00–$65.00 and $62.00–$60.00 respectively. Gold looks firm above $3,450 with scope to rise towards $3,500–$3,550, Silver is capped near $40.00 and may dip to $39.00–$38.50 before resuming its uptrend towards $40.50–$41.00, Copper has broken above $4.50 and could extend gains to $4.60–$4.65, while Natural Gas has cleared resistance and is likely to head towards $3.10–$3.20 in the near term.

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01 Sep 25. 0839 IST or 0309 GMT or 2309 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can be vulnerable to extend the ongoing fall towards the lower end of its 99-97 if it fails to see an immediate bounce back from the support near 97.75 level. Euro faces immediate resistance at 1.1730 and higher at 1.18, thereby suggesting limited upside. EURINR needs to see a break past 103.50 to bring 104 and higher levels into picture. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the 171-173 and 148.00-145.50 range for some time. USDCNY can fall towards the support between 7.12-7.11 region. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to rise further. USDINR can head towards 89 while above 88.

The US Treasury yields are holding above their support. They have to bounce from here to rise further and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The German Yields are bouncing back from near their support. While this support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate around its resistance. For now, there can be a range around this resistance. Eventually we can see the yield coming down.

The Dow Jones could dip while below resistance at 46000 and test 45000-44500. The Dax can trade within 23500-24500 region in the near term while Nifty may bounce from support near 24400-24350 region and head back towards 24600-24800. Nikkei can dip to 42000-41000 before bouncing higher while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700 in the medium term.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure below key resistances and are expected to decline further in the coming weeks, while Gold has risen above $3,500 but faces resistance at $3,550 that could trigger either a pullback or a fresh rally if broken. Silver is testing a crucial breakout point near $41.20, with a sustained move higher opening the door to $42–43, else a dip towards $40–38 is possible. Copper continues to strengthen towards $4.60–4.65, and Natural gas is also gaining with scope to rise towards $3.10–3.20.

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02 Sep 25. 0943 IST or 0413 GMT or 0013 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 98, break past which will be needed to rise further. An immediate trade range of 97-99 can hold for some time. The Euro is stuck between the 1.18-1.16 region. EURINR below 103.50 can be vulnerable to fall back towards 102.50-102.00. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the 171-173 and 146.00-148 range for some time. USDCNY has bounced well and if sustained can head towards 7.15-7.17 in the near term. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to rise further. USDINR turned lower from 88.33 itself and while below 88.50, a test to 88.00-87.75 looks likely in the near term. US ISM Manufacturing data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have inched up further. They are managing sustain above their support. That reduces the danger of seeing more fall. It also keeps the chances alive of the yields rising in the coming days. The German yields have moved up further. The bullish bias is intact to see more rise. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate inside the expected range. The sideways range can continue for some time. Bias is negative to see a downside break of this range eventually.

The Dow Jones is likely to dip within the range of 46000-44500 while the Dax can trade within 23500-24500 region in the near term. Nifty has bounced well from support near 24400 and can now move up towards 24800-25000 in the coming days. Nikkei has bounced well and while above support at 42000-41000, view is bullish for a rise to 43000. Shanghai can rise towards resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3800 in the medium term.

Brent and WTI are both testing their immediate resistance levels, and a break higher could extend the uptrend towards $70–$72 (Brent) and $66–$68 (WTI), while failure to break through may see them slip back towards $67–$65 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold has surged past $3,550 to a record high with scope to test $3,600–$3,650. Silver remains bullish above $41 with room for $42.50–$43.00. Copper looks poised to extend its rise towards $4.65–$4.70, and Natural Gas, despite a brief dip, stays on track for $3.10–$3.20.

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03 Sep 25. 0826 IST or 0256 GMT or 2256 EST

Good Morning!

Rising fiscal risks in the UK and political instability in Japan strengthened the Dollar yesterday. The Dollar Index can head towards 99.00-99.50 before halting. The Euro is coming off and a fall below 1.16 can drag it to 1.15 as well before bouncing back. EURINR can extend the ongoing fall to the support at 102.00. EURJPY and USDJPY need to see a break past 174 and 149 to bring higher levels of 176 and 150-152 into the picture respectively. USDCNY can target 7.15-7.17 in the near term. Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while Pound can test 1.33 if the ongoing fall extends further. USDINR is trading above 88 on the NDF and while it trades above 87.75,can ascend towards 89 as well. while below 88.50, a test to 88.00-87.75 looks likely in the near term. IN Services PMI and EU Composite PMI data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. They are heading up to test their resistance. The price action at the resistance will need a watch to see if the upmove is extending or reversing lower again. The German yields have risen further. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come down within the range. For now, the range is intact and the yield can continue to oscillate within it.

Most indices are trading in the negative territory. The Dow Jones could test 45000 before bouncing from there while the Dax has broken below the crucial support at 23500. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag it lower towards 23000-22000. Watch price action over the next few sessions. Nifty could not sustain its rise above 24700 yesterday and back to close sharply lower. A fall to 24400 is possible within the near term range of 24400-24800. Nikkei could limit its fall to support at 41500 and rise back towards 43000 while Shanghai trades in the green today and can rise slowly towards 4000 while above immediate support at 3800.

Crude prices have broken above resistance, supported by supply concerns from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and prospects of fresh US sanctions, with Brent aiming for $70–$72 and WTI for $66–$68. Gold has surged to $3,600 and faces a key resistance near $3,600–$3,650, a break of which could open the way to $3,800–$4,000 in long run, while failure may lead to a pullback towards $3,500–$3,400. Silver needs a break above $42 to extend gains towards $42.50–$43, otherwise it risks sliding back to $41–$40. Copper remains firm with scope to rise towards $4.70–$4.75, and Natural Gas continues to inch higher with potential to reach $3.10–$3.20.

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04 Sep 25. 0827 IST or 0257 GMT or 2257 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR can hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.15-1.18 and 102.00-103.50 in the near term. EURJPY can trade within the 174-172 region while the resistance at 174 holds. USDJPY can dip to 147 initially. Only a rise past 149 can bring 150-152 into the picture. USDCNY above 7.13/12 can target 7.16-7.17 in the near term. The Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while the Pound can rise towards 1.35 or even 1.36 in the near term. USDINR can rally towards 89 in the coming weeks while above 87.75. US ADP Employment and the US Trade Balance data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. Failure to rise back from their immediate support can drag them lower. We will have to wait and see. The German yields have also come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The yields can rise back and move higher. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within the range. We keep our bias negative to see a downside breakout of this range eventually. For now the range is intact though.

The Dow is headed towards 46000 while above 44500-45000. The DAX needs to sustain above 23500 to keep the bullish momentum intact; else can become vulnerable to a sharp decline. Nifty rose well on the first day of the GST council meeting but has resistances near 24800/850 and higher at 25000 which need to be broken necessarily to see medium term bullishness. Nikkei is bullish towards 43000 while above 41500. Shanghai seems to be holding well below 3900 and is headed to tets 3700 first. A bounce from there if seen can keep the near term range of 3700-4000 intact. Break below 3700 can be strongly bearish.

Crude prices reversed after reports that OPEC+ may raise output, with Brent holding above $67 and WTI above $63 to keep chances of a rebound towards $70–$72 and $66–$68, though breaks lower could drag them to $64 and $60 respectively. Gold hit a fresh record near $3,640 but needs a break above $3,650 to extend its rally towards $3,700–$3,800, else risks a pullback to $3,400–$3,500, while Silver’s move hinges on sustaining above $42 for a rise towards $43 or slipping back to $40–$41. Copper remains firm with scope to test $4.70–$4.75. Natural gas is gradually inching higher towards $3.10–$3.20.

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05 Sep 25. 0816 IST or 0246 GMT or 2246 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.15-1.18 and 102.00-103.50 in the near term. A better directional clarity could be expected after the US NFP, Avg hrly Earnings and the Unemployment scheduled today. EURJPY can trade within the 172-174 region while the resistance at 174 holds. USDJPY below 149, can trade within 149-147/46 region. USDCNY is headed towards the support near 7.1300-7.1250. The Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while the Pound can rise towards 1.35 or even 1.36 in the near term. USDINR is slowly inching higher and the view remains intact to see a rise towards 88.25-88.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply, breaking below their intermediate supports. That opens the door for more fall from here. The US NFP and Unemployment rate data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have dipped further. But the upcoming support can halt the fall and trigger a rise. The broader uptrend is intact. The 10Yr GoI has broken the range on the downside as expected. That keeps intact our bearish view. The yield can fall more from here.

Most indices are trading positive except the Shanghai. The Dow is headed towards 46000. The DAX has bounced well and while above support at 23500, a rise to 24500 can be possible in the next few sessions. Nifty saw profit taking yesterday. The range of 24400-24850/25000 may hold for now. Nikkei is likely to test 43000 soon. Thereafter it has to be seen if the rise can sustain higher towards 43500-44000 or not. Shanghai fell sharply yesterday after media reports suggested potential regulatory actions to curb speculation, along with the end of a major military parade in Beijing. Watch price action near support at 3700.

Crude prices have slipped below key levels with Brent testing $66.35 and WTI $62.72, but both are holding near immediate supports at $66 and $62 respectively, which if sustained could trigger rebounds towards $68–$70 for Brent and $64–$66 for WTI. Gold is steady above $3600 but needs a decisive break past $3650 to extend gains towards $3700–$3800, else risks a pullback to $3500–$3400. Silver must clear $42 to regain upward momentum towards $42.50–$43.00, failing which it may drop to $40.50–$40.00. Copper stays constructive above $4.40 with scope to rise towards $4.70–$4.75, while Natural gas remains bullish for $3.10–$3.20.

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08 Sep 25. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2306 EST

Good Morning!

Weaker US NFP and higher US Unemployment pulled the Dollar index lower on Friday. Still, the Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.18-1.16 and 103.50-102.50 for now. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 149-147/46 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY can soon test the support near 7.1300-7.1250 before attempting to bounce back again. The Aussie faces immediate resistance at 0.66, below which a pull back towards 0.655-0.6400 looks likely. If the Pound fails to sustain above can fall towards 1.34-1.33. USDINR can test 88.50 in the near term before declining a bit from there.

The US Treasury yields have declined further as expected. Weak jobs data dragged the yields lower as the hopes for rate cuts increased. The US added just 22K jobs to its non-farm payroll. The Unemployment rate on the other hand increased to 4.3%. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag them further lower in the coming days. The German Yields have declined below their intermediate support. If this sustains more fall can be seen from here. That in turn will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI is coming down in line with our expectation. It can test its support and then possibly bounce back from there.

Most equity indices are likely to be ranged for the near term. The Dow, Dax, Shanghai and Nifty can trade within 46000-45000, 23000-24500, 3700-4000 and 24400-24850/25000 respectively while Nikkei has jumped sharply today on news of PM Ishibu to step down. The index can test 44000-44500 soon.

Crude prices have weakened as Brent broke support to $65.07 and looks vulnerable to $64–$62, while WTI slipped to $61.45 with scope to fall further towards $60–$58. Gold is attempting to clear resistance at $3,650, and a sustained break could lift it towards $3,700–$3,800, though failure may drag it back to $3,600–$3,500. Silver stays weak below $42 with risks of $40.50–$40.00 unless it breaks higher towards $42.50–$43.00. Copper is under pressure and may dip to $4.40 before a possible rebound towards $4.70–$4.75. Natural Gas has risen and could extend gains towards $3.15–$3.20 in the near term.

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09 Sep 25. 0755 IST or 0225 GMT or 2225 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index continues to fall further. A test to 97.00-96.50 looks likely to happen before bouncing back later. The Euro on a break past 1.18 can head towards 1.19 as well. Else can continue to trade within the 1.18-1.16 region. EURINR needs to see a sustained rise above current levels to head towards 104 and higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 149-146 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY is headed towards deeper support at 7.11 which can be tested soon in the near term. The Aussie faces immediate resistance at 0.66, break past which will be needed to bring 0.67 into picture. Else, a pull back towards 0.655-0.6400 is likely. The Pound has risen well and if sustained, can ascend towards 1.36-1.37 in the coming sessions. USDINR was closed yesterday.

The US Treasury and the German yields are coming down. The Treasury yields look vulnerable to fall more. The German yields on the other hand can also fall more from here. However, key supports are coming up for them. They have to rise back from there to avoid a deeper fall and negate our broader bullish view. The 10Yr GoI was closed yesterday. It can fall to test its support in the near term and then possibly bounce back again.

Most equity indices are likely to be ranged for the near term and await a breakout for further broad directional view. The Dow is headed towards resistance at 46000 while Dax has very near term resistance just above current levels and needs to break above 23800/850 to rise further towards 24000-24500. Shanghai and Nifty can head towards 3900 and 24850-25000 respectively. Nikkei continues to rise today and can head towards 44500-45000 soon.

Crude prices remain weak with Brent vulnerable to a fall towards $64–$62 while below $67 and WTI likely to decline towards $60–$58 while under $64. Gold has turned strongly bullish after breaking above $3,650 and testing a new all-time high of $3,685.70, with scope to rise further towards $3,700–$3,800. Silver is struggling below $42 and remains exposed to a dip towards $40.50–$40.00 unless it breaks higher, while Copper has bounced from $4.5255 and can rise towards $4.70–$4.80, holding immediate support near $4.40. Natural Gas stays firm after testing $3.1980 and can extend gains towards $3.20–$3.25.

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10 Sep 25. 0816 IST or 0246 GMT or 2246 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has bounced well from the low of 97.25. Still a break past 98 will be needed to open the doors for 99-100 in the near term. The Euro is coming off within its 1.18-1.16 range. EURINR has slipped below 103.50 and is back within its 103.50-10.250 range. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 146-148/49 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY has bounced from, 71,2 and a break past 7.13 can take it towards 7.15-7.16 in the near term. The Aussie needs to hold above 0.66 to test 0.67, else it is likely to fall back towards 0.655-0.6400. The Pound tested 1.3590 as anticipated and can trade within 1.36/37-1.34 region in the near term. USDINR above 88 can rise towards 88.35-88.50 in the coming sessions. US PPI Data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back. If this sustains, they can rise more in the coming days which in turn will ease the danger of seeing a deeper fall. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have inched up. But there is room to fall back and test their support before the broader uptrend resumes. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow has to be watched. The 10Yr GoI has risen back well ahead of its support. Further rise is possible if this sustains. Broadly, the 10Yr GoI can oscillate in a range for some time.

The Dow Jones moved up yesterday after downward revision of US labor data that showed a weaker labor market for the 12-months up to Mar-25. Dow can test 46000 before seeing a dip to 45000. Dax can dip to 23500 or lower while below 23800/850. Nifty has moved up well to close above 24850 yesterday. If the rise continues, we may expect a test of 25000 soon. Nikkei has dipped below 44000 but needs to rise back soon to prevent a fall towards 430000 and instead head towards 44000-44500. Shanghai can head towards 3900-4000 soon.

Brent remains weak and could slip towards $64–$62 while below $67, with WTI also vulnerable to a fall towards $60–$58 if it stays under $64. Gold continues to show strong momentum after making a fresh record high and has room to rise further towards $3750–$3800, while Silver is stuck in a tight $42–$41 range and needs a breakout for clearer direction. Copper may test support near $4.4 before bouncing towards $4.7–$4.8, though a direct rise cannot be ruled out. Natural gas looks poised to head higher towards $3.20–$3.25 in the near term.

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11 Sep 25. 0812 IST or 0242 GMT or 2242 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can head towards 99-100 in the near term on a confirmed break above 98. The Euro and EURINR are moving within their respective ranges of 1.18-1.16 and 103.50-102.50. EURJPY needs to bounce from support at 172 to keep the 172-174 range intact, while USDJPY can trade within the 146-149 region. USDCNY is headed towards deeper support at 7.11. The Aussie dollar has scope to rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.660-0.655. The Pound can trade within the 1.36-1.34 region for some time. USDINR, above 88, can rise towards 88.35-88.50 in the coming sessions. ECB meeting and the US CPI data is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. Failure to get a strong rise from here will keep alive the danger of seeing more fall going forward. The US CPI data release today will need a close watch. A high inflation number will aid the Treasury yields to go higher. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have room on the downside to test their support. After that the broader uptrend can resume. The ECB meeting outcome today is important to watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down again. It can oscillate in a sideways range for some time.

Concerns over a softening US labor market and higher possibilities of FED rate cuts have turned the equity market mixed with all eyes on the crucial US inflation data and ECB policy meeting due today. Dow Jones can test 46000 while Dax can dip to 23500 before rebounding from there. Nifty could attempt to rise and sustain above 25000 while Nikkei can continue to rise towards 44500. Shanghai, if breaks below 3800 can move back to the broader range of 3700-4000 and hold on to it for a few weeks.

Brent and WTI have risen but both face resistance, with Brent likely to reverse from $68.00/$68.50 towards $65–$64 and WTI vulnerable to fall towards $60–$58 while below $64. Gold remains bullish for a rise to $3,750–$3,800, Silver is expected to consolidate within $42–$41 until a breakout gives direction. Copper has bounced back with potential to climb towards $4.70–$4.80, and Natural Gas is weakening against expectations and could slide further towards $3.00–$2.80 while below $3.20.

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12 Sep 25. 0824 IST or 0254 GMT or 2254 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index failed to sustain its rise past 98 and while below it, the index can be vulnerable to fall towards 97 or even 96. The Euro is moving higher within the 1.16-1.18 range. EURINR is headed towards the resistance near 104. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.1250 to bring higher levels into picture. Else, a pull back to 7.11 can happen initially. The Aussie has scope to rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.660-0.655. The Pound can trade within the 1.36-1.34 region for some time. USDINR tested 88.4550 before cooling down. Immediate resistance is coming at 88.50 and higher at 88.75, below which the pair is likely to trade within the 88.75-88.00 region. UK Trade balance and IN CPI data release are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down. There is room on the downside to see more fall in the coming days. The US CPI data failed to give a push for the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 2.94% (YoY) in August, up from 2.73% in the previous month. The German Yields remain stable and lower. They can dip in the near-term before resuming their broader uptrend. The ECB left the rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday. The 10Yr GoI is coming down and can test its support. A sideways range is possible for some time before a downside break of the range happens eventually.

Dow Jones rose sharply yesterday breaking above the immediate resistance at 46000 after a higher US inflation data release that boosted expectations of a possible rate cut by the FED. The ECB kept rates unchanged as broadly expected. Dax has risen but could face rejection from immediate resistance at 24000. Nifty could attempt to rise and sustain above 25000 which can take it towards 25500 while Nikkei can continue to rise towards 45000-45500 where it can face a rejection. Nikkei and Shanghai are rising on optimism around the growth of AI-businesses. Shanghai, if manages to break above 3900 can reach to 4000 before facing rejection from there.

Brent and WTI have dipped as expected, with Brent vulnerable to a fall towards $65–$64 and WTI likely to test $60–$58 in the near term. Gold remains bullish despite a slight dip, targeting $3,750–$3,800, while Silver has broken above its earlier range and can rise towards $43–$44. Copper is inching higher with scope to test $4.70–$4.80, whereas Natural gas, having slipped below $3, looks weak towards $2.85–$2.80.

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15 Sep 25. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can be vulnerable to fall towards 97 or even 96 while below 98. The Euro is moving higher within the 1.16-1.18 range. EURINR is stuck within the 103-104 range. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 174-172 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.1250 to bring higher levels into picture. Else, a pull back to 7.11 can happen initially. The Aussie and Pound face immediate resistance at 0.67 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR can trade within the 88.75-88.00 region while below 88.50-88.75.

The US Treasury yields have inched up. Resistances can cap the upside if there is a rise from here and keep the yields under pressure. There is room on the downside for the Treasury yields to fall more in the coming days. The German yields have bounced but can be short-lived. They can fall back to test their support. Thereafter the broader uptrend can resume. The 10Yr GoI has risen and remains well within the range. It can continue to oscillate sideways for some time before declining eventually.

The Dow looks bullish above strong support at 45500–45000 with potential to rise towards 47000–48000, while the DAX remains range-bound between 23000 and 24500 with scope for a near-term dip to 23000 if it stays below 24000. Nifty has broken above 25000 and can head higher towards 25250 and 25500 with support at 25000–24800. Nikkei stays bullish for a move towards 45000–45500 before a possible reversal, while Shanghai needs a break above 3900 to test resistance at 4000.

Brent and WTI remain weak below their resistances, keeping the outlook bearish for a fall towards $65–$64 and $60–$58 respectively. Gold is attempting to break above $3,700, and a sustained move higher can open the way towards $3,750–$3,800 in the coming weeks, while Silver holds firm above $42 with potential to rise towards $43–$44. Copper has faced resistance near $4.70 and may dip further towards $4.60–$4.55, while Natural Gas is likely to decline towards $2.85–$2.80 in the near term.

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16 Sep 25. 0813 IST or 0243 GMT or 2243 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is coming off as anticipated and can test our targets of 97-96 in the near term. The Euro and EURINR need to see a break above 1.18 and 104 to bring the 1.19 and 105 levels into picture. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is coming off and can test 7.11-7.10 if the fall extends further. The Aussie and Pound face are headed towards the immediate resistance coming at 0.67 and 1.3650 respectively. USDINR can trade within the 88.00-88.50 region for some time before heading towards 88.75 later. US Retail sales, Industrial production & Capacity utilisation are some of the important data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. We expect the yields to fall either from here itself or after a short-lived corrective bounce. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tomorrow is going to be an important event to watch. The German yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall more before resuming their broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI remains unclear. It can continue to oscillate in a sideways range for some time.

The Dow is attempting to move higher with a bullish bias for 47,000–48,000 while holding above 45,500–45,000. The DAX remains rangebound between 23,000-24,500 with chances of a dip towards 23,000. Nifty has slipped slightly but support at 25,000–24,800 is expected to hold, keeping the outlook bullish for 25,250–25,500. Nikkei stays positive and can rise towards 45,000–45,500 in the near term before any reversal. Shanghai, however, is weakening and could fall towards 3,830–3,800 before a possible rebound towards 3,900–4,000.

Brent and WTI remain weak as long as they stay below $68 and $64 respectively, keeping the downside view intact for a fall towards $65–$64 and $60–$58 in the near term. Gold has hit a fresh all-time high and looks poised to rise further towards $3,750–$3,800, while Silver can extend gains towards $43.50–$44. Copper is facing resistance and could reverse lower towards $4.60–$4.55 unless a break above $4.70 opens the way for $4.80–$5.00. Natural Gas is also struggling below resistance near $3.00, and while this holds, a decline towards $2.85–$2.80 remains likely.

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17 Sep 25. 0834 IST or 0304 GMT or 2304 EST

Good Morning!

The FOMC is scheduled today. While the 25-bps rate cut is priced in by the markets, attention will turn to Chair Powell’s remarks for signals on future easing.The Dollar Index can test the support near 96 before halting. The Euro and EURINR can rise towards 1.19-1.20 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the immediate ranges of 172-174 and 149-146 respectively in the near term. USDCNY can test 7.10 soon. The Aussie and Pound need to see a sustained rise above 0.67 and 1.3650 to extend the rise towards 0.68 and 1.38 respectively. USDINR is trading below 88 on the NDF. Still, while above 87.75, we retain our view of the pair rebounding towards 88 and higher levels in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. Looks like the market is waiting to see the Fed meeting outcome tonight. A 25-basis point rate cut is largely factored in the market already. It will be important to see the economic projections which will give an idea on the future policy path. For now, we prefer the yields to fall either from here itself or after a short-lived bounce. The German yields are also stable. They have room to fall more from here before resuming their broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI remains mixed and unclear within its sideways range.

The Dow has pulled back ahead of the FOMC policy meeting today. But while above 45500-45000, the view is likely to be bullish towards 47000. The DAX has some scope to test 23000 before bouncing back within the range of 23000-24500. Nifty looks bullish towards 25500 while Nikkei is positive towards 45000-45500. Shanghai, on the other hand, is trading weak and can test 3830-3800 before rebounding towards 3900-4000 eventually.

Crude prices have moved higher with Brent rising above $68 on supply concerns from Russian export disruptions and WTI breaking above $64, both now looking poised for further gains towards $69–70 and $65–66 respectively. Gold stays bullish with scope to rise towards $3,750–$3,800, while Silver needs to hold above $43 to extend its uptrend, else risks slipping towards $42–41. Copper remains weak and could fall further towards $4.60–$4.55. Natural Gas faces resistance near $3.20, keeping it vulnerable to a decline towards $3.00–$2.80.

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18 Sep 25. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning!

The FED Delivered 25-bps rate cut as widely expected and signaled two more reductions this year and only one in 2026.The Dollar Index tested 96.28 and while above 96 a rise back towards 98-99 can happen. The Euro and EURINR are coming off from 1.1918 and 104.38 and can extend the fall towards 1.17-1.16 and 103.50-103.00 respectively in the near term.. EURJPY needs to see a break past 174 to bring higher levels into picture, while USDJPY has a scope to test 148-149 in the coming sessions. USDCNY has recovered from the lof 7.1028 and can now bounce back towards 7.125 and higher. The Aussie and Pound failed to sustain the rise and started coming off. A further fall to 0.660-0.655 and 1.35/34 looks likely to happen. USDINR if fails to see a rise past 88, can get dragged towards 87.50-87.25 as well. Wait for a confirmed break below 87.70. US Philifed Index and the US TICS data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply from their lows after the US Fed meeting outcome yesterday. The Fed delivered a 25-basis points rate cut as expected. The projections showed that another 50-bps rate cut is possible for this year. The German yields have dipped. View remains the same. The yields can fall more from here to test their support and then can reverse higher again. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range and is coming down within it.

The Dow has risen after the 25bps rate cut by the FED. The Dow Jones looks positive towards 47000-48000 while above 45500. The DAX is stuck in the 23000-24500 range and may continue to hold for some more time. Nifty looks bullish towards 25500 while Nikkei is positive towards 45500 or even 46000. Shanghai looks bullish towards 3900-4000 while above 3830-3800.

Brent and WTI have dipped slightly after weak US housing data but the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $69–70 and $65–66 respectively. Gold is slipping contrary to expectations, though a move towards $3,750–$3,800 remains possible if it holds above $3,650. Silver has fallen sharply with potential for a further decline towards $41–40, while Copper continues to weaken in line with expectations towards $4.60–$4.55. Natural Gas is also softening and could dip further towards $2.90–$2.80.

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19 Sep 25. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning!

Lower US Unemployment claims at 231k (241k expected) & greater Philifed Index at 23.2 (1.7 expected) supported the strength in Dollar. The Dollar Index has risen but is facing immediate resistance; a clear break above this level could target 98–99 next. The Euro below 1.19 can target 1.17 or even 1.16 in the near term, while EURINR can continue to consolidate between 104.50-103.00 region. EURJPY has risen past 174 and if sustained, can ascend towards 176-178 in the medium term. USDJPY needs to breach 148 level to rise towards 150-152. USDCNY is slowly inching higher and the pair can target 7.125 and higher levels, while above 7.10. The Aussie has immediate support at 0.66, need to se whether it holds or not. Pound has a scope to extend the fall to 1.345/34 before halting. USDINR has risen past 88 and a break above 88.25 could bring 88.50 into picture. Watch out for the BOJ meeting scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. There is room to rise further to test their resistance. Failure to breach the resistance can drag the yields down again. The German Yields have risen sharply. But resistance is ahead which has to be broken to avoid the fall that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the range. For now the sideways range is intact.

Most indices have risen well but could face immediate resistances above current levels. The Dow has risen well but needs to break above 46500 to turn further bullish for the near term. The DAX has also risen well and can test 24000-24500 before facing any rejection. Nifty too is headed towars resistance at 25500 which needs to be breached to establish a bullish momentum for the coming weeks. Nikkei is positive towards 46000 while Shanghai looks stuck within the 3800-3950 region for now.

Brent and WTI remain mixed with Brent needing a break above $68 to rise towards $70–72 or else risk $66–64, while WTI must clear $64 to aim for $66–68 else fall to $62–60. Gold holds above support for a bounce to $3,750–3,800 while Silver has rebounded from $41.50 with potential for a rise towards $42.50–43.00. Copper stays weak towards $4.55. Natural Gas can dip further to $2.90–2.80.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

22 Sep 25. 0810 IST or 0240 GMT or 2240 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has resistance at 98 and the Euro has support at 1.17 which need to hold for them to test 97-96 and 1.18-1.19 respectively. Else, if Euro falls further to 1.17, the Dollar index can briefly break above 98. EURINR is headed towards support at 103 from where a bounce looks possible towards 104.50, keeping a near term range of 103-104.50 intact. EURJPY and USDJPY have resistances near 174.50 and 148.50 respectively from where declines look possible towards 173-172.50 and 147-146 respectively. USDCNY is extending its rise towards 7.125 or higher, while the Aussie has broken below 0.66 and looks vulnerable to a further dip towards 0.6550. The Pound is holding above support at 1.3450, but a sustained break lower could drag it down to 1.34–1.3350. USDINR is trading firm above 88 with scope to rise towards 88.25–88.35, and a break past 88.35 could open the way for 88.50–88.75.

The US Treasury yields have risen further. There is room to rise more and test their resistance. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if the yields are turning down or extending the rise. The German Yields are coming close to their resistance. If they manage to breach the resistance, the broader uptrend can then resume without seeing the fall that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI has come down again. The yield remains stuck inside the narrow range and continues to oscillate within it.

Most indices have immediate resistances and can see an initial dip before resuming the longer term uptrend. The Dow has risen well but needs to break above resistance at 46500 to turn further bullish for the near term else can dip back towards 45500-45000. The DAX has immediate resistance at 24000 below which an initial dip is possible to 23500-23000. Nifty has crucial resistance at 25500 which needs to be breached to establish a bullish momentum for the coming weeks else can see a dip toward 25000-24800 again. Nikkei needs to breach 45860 to rise towards 46000 while Shanghai has dipped below earlier support at 3850 and can test 3800-3750 before again moving higher in the longer run.

Brent and WTI remain weak below $68 and $63, leaving them vulnerable to further declines towards $65–64 and $60 respectively. Gold has rebounded above $3,700 and looks set to rise towards $3,750–3,800. Silver has surged sharply with resistance at $44, a break of which could open the way towards $44.50–45.00 in the coming weeks. Copper is holding above $4.60, with risks of a fall to $4.55 if broken, else it may bounce towards $4.70–4.75. Natural Gas has extended its decline as expected and could dip further towards $2.80 in the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

24 Sep 25. 0802 IST or 0232 GMT or 2232 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is gradually coming off within its 98-96/95 range which can hold for some time. The Euro can ascend towards 1.19-1.20 while above 1.17. EURINR on a break past 105 can head towards 105.50-106.00. EURJPY needs to breach 174.50 to head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPYhas a scope to extend the fall towards 147-146 respectively. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.10. Aussie and Pound above 0.655 and 1.345 can attempt to bounce back towards 0.66 and 1.36 and higher levels respectively in the near term. USDINR tested 88.7975 yesterday. A further rise to 88.85-89.00 looks possible before getting peaked out. German IFO and US New Home Sales data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have reversed lower again. Failure to sustain above their immediate support will negate the rise that we had expected. That in turn can drag the yields lower again. The German yields continue to hover near their crucial resistance. They have to breach this hurdle decisively to go higher and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. For now, the sideways range is intact.

Most indices have dipped. The Dow, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped while the Dax has risen slightly. There can be scope of near term fall in the Dow, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai towards 45500-45000, 25000-24800, 45000-44800 and 3800-3750 respectively. The DAX on the other hand has slightly moved up and needs to see a decisive break above 23650 to test 24000-24500 on the upside. Else it can fall back towards 23500-23000.

Brent and WTI rebounded sharply from recent lows on concerns over Russian crude supplies, but both face key resistances at $68 and $64 respectively, which need to break for further upside towards $70-72 and $66-68. Gold tested $3,824.60 and must hold above it to target $3,900-4,000 else risks a dip to $3,700-3,600, while Silver remains bullish towards $45-46 despite a softer open. Copper stays firm above $4.60 with scope for $4.70-4.75. Natural Gas has gapped higher but needs a break above $3.20 to extend gains to $3.30-3.40, else risks sliding back to $3.00-2.80.

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25 Sep 25. 0816 IST or 0246 GMT or 2246 EST

Good Morning!

Weakening expectations for aggressive easing of FED rate cut supported the Dollar strength. The Dollar Index can broadly trade within 97/96-99 region for some time. The Euro & EURINR can initially fall towards 1.17 & 104.00-103.50 respectively before attempting to bounce back later. EURJPY needs to breach 175 to head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPY can remained ranged within 146-149 for now. Only a break past 149 can open the doors for 150-152. USDCNY needs to sustain above 7.12 to head towards 7.14/15. Aussie and Pound above 0.655 and 1.345 can attempt to bounce back towards 0.66 and 1.36 and higher levels respectively in the near term. USDINR can test 88.85-89.00 before getting peaked out. Watch out for the US Durable goods, GDP & Existing home sales data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back again. The support is holding well. That keeps the door open for the yields to rise more in the coming days. The US PCE data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German Yields continue to remain stable near their resistance. The recent price action leaves the bias bullish. The yields can breach the resistance and rise more. The 10Yr GoI retains its narrow sideways range. It is now rising back after testing the lower end of its range.

The Dow saw some profit taking but can rebound from 46000. The Dax has risen slightly and can move up while above 23650. The Nifty can rebound from 25000 else can dip further to 24800-24600. Watch price action near 250000. Nikkei has moved up well today but needs to break above 45860 to test 46000 and higher. Shanghai may continue to trade between 3850-3750 for now.

Brent and WTI broke above resistance levels and look poised to extend gains towards $70-72 and $66-68 respectively on supply concerns linked to Russia. Gold and silver have dipped with gold needing a break above $3,800 to stay bullish and Silver holding above $43 to target $45-46. Copper surged sharply after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a deadly mudslide, driving prices towards $5.0 or higher, whereas Natural gas remains capped by resistance near current levels with risks of a dip to $3.0-2.9 unless it breaks above to target $3.3-3.4.

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