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The Swamp

  • #124,961
  • Sep 23, 2025 5:44am Sep 23, 2025 5:44am
Quoting gatorinla
The 12h above 1799 is bullish added with all we know.. 1847.7 may have some R.. If above it this time tomorrow, its bullish still probably. {image}
Good morning,
I see support at 1.176. I’m waiting for a break, Tt’s pretty hard for me to go long here even though this is exactly where it should bounce. I prefer to wait for a break and at least a 4H close below 1.176. I’m not adding to the short yet, only if we close the day below this lvl. If we get a 1H close above 1.182, I’ll reduce the short for now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,962
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:01am Sep 23, 2025 6:01am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear is running out of time if they want 1557 by the end of the month
That can happen in 1 or 2 days
We got 5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,963
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:12am Sep 23, 2025 6:12am
-1799 got the bears that last h close.. pa 1807/47 is in the place it got rejected after 1918 last time. If 1799 becomes R.. It has no choice but to drop.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,964
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:16am Sep 23, 2025 6:16am
Quoting gatorinla
-1799 got the bears that last h close.. pa 1807/47 is in the place it got rejected after 1918 last time. If 1799 becomes R.. It has no choice but to drop. {image}
That 12h close back above 1799 didnt help the reject view..
Last h below 1799. is it losing its footing again. 1770 may attract.. But above a level like 1799.. it mostly remains in a b/o stance usually.
I question it more before the Q ends. To look for stuff like this.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,965
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:33am Sep 23, 2025 6:33am
adjusting my target for longs to 1.1882
  • #124,966
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:47am Sep 23, 2025 6:47am
this shouldn't be here. a few wicks is ok.. not the closes.
It should be mostly clean..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,967
  • Sep 23, 2025 6:53am Sep 23, 2025 6:53am
Quoting gatorinla
this shouldn't be here. a few wicks is ok.. not the closes. It should be mostly clean.. {image}
I tightened up the stops. Only thing for me to do now is wait and see.
  • #124,968
  • Sep 23, 2025 7:14am Sep 23, 2025 7:14am
Quoting charlienoble
{quote} I tightened up the stops. Only thing for me to do now is wait and see.
A b/o above 1799 should not have that clutter below 1799. What skewed was the 12h closing above. I know all is bullish.. I'm looking for stuff out of place..Up trends are always bullish before they turn.
To be bearish 1736 and -1556 to me need to be taken this month. That dont seem like good odds atm. Not running above 1799 is not s strong bull. That 1807/47 is where bulls got the second reject last time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,969
  • Sep 23, 2025 7:26am Sep 23, 2025 7:26am
If some crazy shit happens today, or early Asia... being below 1727 can be a South b/o. It does need to sustain below .. It may wick back to 1736+ish.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,970
  • Sep 23, 2025 7:38am Sep 23, 2025 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That 12h close back above 1799 didnt help the reject view.. Last h below 1799. is it losing its footing again. 1770 may attract.. But above a level like 1799.. it mostly remains in a b/o stance usually. I question it more before the Q ends. To look for stuff like this. {image}
we have plenty of news events to move the market. That 4h candle closing above 1799 worries me but we have been stuck below 1799 and above 1777 since.
market scared of Powell i guess
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,971
  • Sep 23, 2025 8:09am Sep 23, 2025 8:09am
Bull again trying to claim back 1800 after Bowman’s comments on employment, inflation and rate cuts. just have to remind myself we are in a bull trend until it turns. The question is when it will turn and where.

having the last couple of hours closing below 1799 signals some bull hesitation but still above 1777 1736 though.

seems like gbp is leading the race for now…

well i have bear bias and hope bear can do well but they failed to impress too many times.

fundi wise as long as we have the crazy man around weak dollars remain the theme
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,972
  • Sep 23, 2025 9:38am Sep 23, 2025 9:38am
Quoting johncen
Bull again trying to claim back 1800 after Bowman’s comments on employment, inflation and rate cuts. just have to remind myself we are in a bull trend until it turns. The question is when it will turn and where. having the last couple of hours closing below 1799 signals some bull hesitation but still above 1777 1736 though. seems like gbp is leading the race for now… well i have bear bias and hope bear can do well but they failed to impress too many times. fundi wise as long as we have the crazy man around weak dollars remain the theme
My quarter month week and day structure are bullish.. indicators above the 4h are mostly bullish.. So if not for the Q ending, i would be long from 1736.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,973
  • Sep 23, 2025 12:06pm Sep 23, 2025 12:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My quarter month week and day structure are bullish.. indicators above the 4h are mostly bullish.. So if not for the Q ending, i would be long from 1736.
yea nothing much backing a drop and really fundamentally changing the trend. Bull closing the last h and 4h back above 1799 so bull still has the upper hands
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,974
  • Sep 23, 2025 12:42pm Sep 23, 2025 12:42pm
Another rise..
not 1/2 yet
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,975
  • Sep 23, 2025 12:44pm Sep 23, 2025 12:44pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea nothing much backing a drop and really fundamentally changing the trend. Bull closing the last h and 4h back above 1799 so bull still has the upper hands
Yeah.. Trend is the thing many want. A trend has different meanings.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,976
  • Sep 23, 2025 1:02pm Sep 23, 2025 1:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah.. Trend is the thing many want. A trend has different meanings.
not sure if we will see bear trying tomorrow but 1760 area may be key?
only if we go back below 1799
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,977
  • Sep 23, 2025 3:44pm Sep 23, 2025 3:44pm
Onr good thing about this up day.. The b/o down is rising.. It will support, or it will break down.. It looks to be 1787 atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,978
  • Sep 23, 2025 3:46pm Sep 23, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} not sure if we will see bear trying tomorrow but 1760 area may be key? only if we go back below 1799
1799 will retire in Asia around lunch
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,979
  • Sep 23, 2025 3:49pm Sep 23, 2025 3:49pm
To go North. stay above 1814.. Not below 1787..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,980
  • Sep 23, 2025 4:39pm Sep 23, 2025 4:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
To go North. stay above 1814.. Not below 1787..
yea agree 1799 is less relevant now but its between 1814 and 1787.
overall remain bullish and may test 1848 today

not real sign of bear as bull took me 1799 after Powell
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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