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I have a question on lower time rolling pivots

  • #21
  • Sep 23, 2025 12:31pm Sep 23, 2025 12:31pm
you might think chart looks messy when history pivots are on but it is quite clean on current levels ..
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  • #22
  • Sep 23, 2025 12:37pm Sep 23, 2025 12:37pm
no trend lines no top down analysis, no fibs nothing - just M5 chart and these pivot ranges - i dont look up or down the timeframes ..
an old guy once told me no matter what you draw on your chart lines, previous levels, fans,blah blah blah, price will do one of three things - go up go down or go sideways... how true is this in todays market - Nas is just going up ... no one has levels or anything to draw to compare or aim for ... all i can assume is the AI and algo,s are using these levels ? maybe ? i suppose they are also using the lower levels too but i think as a human we are not quick enough to be in and out in a flash .. maybe some of you are but im not ...
  • #23
  • Sep 24, 2025 12:09am Sep 24, 2025 12:09am
I didn't see the questions ?
You have a feeling that pivots get respected all the time.
Yes there is directional pull, depending where price opens.
I have statistics only for weekly and daily pivots.

Gold daily pivots
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Gold weekly pivots
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I am paying with different take right know.
On Gold, 1st 30m range from London open is 6.8 points.
20 min more , lets see will it be reached.
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  • #24
  • Sep 24, 2025 12:33am Sep 24, 2025 12:33am
Average move 6.8 and this time 1st 30m London open 6.6 points.
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How same trade looks with 30m pivot points.
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But you are right , price likes to move from most of the time from PP-S1 and from PP-R1.
Pivots are natural boundaries of price movement.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #25
  • Sep 24, 2025 12:44am Sep 24, 2025 12:44am
As I said PP to R1. When I used daily pivots I called it move of the day.
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Its time to make a statistics for 30m pivot points.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #26
  • Sep 24, 2025 2:18am Sep 24, 2025 2:18am
Interesting discussion.

I have played a bit with pivots in the past but I have to confess I didn't managed to work them for me.
The issue is there are several levels. Which level is going to work?
Obviously with all these levels for sure one will work but that is not of a great help with trading as you need something more reliable.

cheers
  • #27
  • Sep 24, 2025 2:57am Sep 24, 2025 2:57am
Quoting Merka
Interesting discussion. I have played a bit with pivots in the past but I have to confess I didn't managed to work them for me. The issue is there are several levels. Which level is going to work? Obviously with all these levels for sure one will work but that is not of a great help with trading as you need something more reliable. cheers
Name one thing that is reliable in trading ? All we have is probabilities.
30m pivot point data without filter. Filter like price open relation to PP or was last candle up or down makes it bit better.
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  • #28
  • Sep 24, 2025 3:08am Sep 24, 2025 3:08am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Name one thing that is reliable in trading ? All we have is probabilities. 30m pivot point data without filter. Filter like price open relation to PP or was last candle up or down makes it bit better.{image}
For reliable I ment an specific level with high probability of working.

Thanks for the table and your contribution.
Can you please explain a bit how to interprete your table.
I presume H= high & L=low
what does mean H>R3 6.16% ????

Thanks
  • #29
  • Sep 24, 2025 3:47am Sep 24, 2025 3:47am
Quoting Merka
{quote} For reliable I ment an specific level with high probability of working. Thanks for the table and your contribution. Can you please explain a bit how to interprete your table. I presume H= high & L=low what does mean H>R3 6.16% ???? Thanks
Can you tell me what level will work with high probability ?
Yesterdays high holds 60% ? Last weeks high holds 70% ?
Last month level holds 80% of time when tested ?
My point is we never know if any given level will hold or not or is high probability.
At any given level the might or may not be support or resistance.

Yes H = high and L = low.
Price will reach 30 minute timeframe pivot R3 6.16 % of times ( 853 times out of 13845 )

Intraday pivot points don't work that good. 30 minute before open we have smaller candle
and pivot point are calculated based on that and will be easy to reach in 1st 30 minutes of market open.
Also 1st 30m market open candle is the biggest and sets pivot points for next 30 minutes harder to reach.

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  • #30
  • Sep 24, 2025 5:51am Sep 24, 2025 5:51am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Can you tell me what level will work with high probability ? Yesterdays high holds 60% ? Last weeks high holds 70% ? Last month level holds 80% of time when tested ? My point is we never know if any given level will hold or not or is high probability. At any given level the might or may not be support or resistance. Yes H = high and L = low. Price will reach 30 minute timeframe pivot R3 6.16 % of times ( 853 times out of 13845 ) Intraday pivot points don't work that good. 30 minute before open we have smaller candle and pivot point are calculated...
Thanks a lot for your clear answer
  • #31
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:31am Sep 24, 2025 9:31am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Can you tell me what level will work with high probability ? Yesterdays high holds 60% ? Last weeks high holds 70% ? Last month level holds 80% of time when tested ? My point is we never know if any given level will hold or not or is high probability. At any given level the might or may not be support or resistance. Yes H = high and L = low. Price will reach 30 minute timeframe pivot R3 6.16 % of times ( 853 times out of 13845 ) Intraday pivot points don't work that good. 30 minute before open we have smaller candle and pivot point are calculated...
Hi Mandarin, could I ask where you get suck statistics from and how could I obtain these % for the 4hour and one hour pivot points ? if possible ?

regards
  • #32
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:35am Sep 24, 2025 9:35am
also the pivot itself on these 4h and 1h pivot levels doesn't seem to hold true as it does on the daily - what I have found is that price (and my 3ma) has to break out of the first mid point - which is the box I have shaded .. same on both H1 and H4 pivot levels ..
  • #33
  • Sep 24, 2025 9:44am Sep 24, 2025 9:44am
Quoting Nellycopter
{quote} Hi Mandarin, could I ask where you get suck statistics from and how could I obtain these % for the 4hour and one hour pivot points ? if possible ? regards
You want it for EURUSD ?
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #34
  • Sep 25, 2025 1:43am Sep 25, 2025 1:43am
ger40 and nas100 im looking for ..
  • #35
  • Sep 25, 2025 1:44am Sep 25, 2025 1:44am
do you have a tool for this Mandarin ?
  • #36
  • Sep 25, 2025 2:18am Sep 25, 2025 2:18am
Quoting Nellycopter
do you have a tool for this Mandarin ?
Yes I can do it for GER40 and NAS100 latest on weekend.
But same thing applies, specially for 4h chart. Pre-market open candles are small,
and stock market opening hours candles will be ca. 2 times bigger. But lets see when I have data ready.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #37
  • Sep 25, 2025 2:34am Sep 25, 2025 2:34am
Quoting Nellycopter
ger40 and nas100 im looking for ..
GER40, 4hour candle average ranges in points.
As you can see candle before German stock market one is 2.4 time smaller
and pivot points calculated based on that will be really easy to reach at market open.
But I will do pivot analysis anyway and you will see do you find value in it.
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  • #38
  • Sep 25, 2025 3:01am Sep 25, 2025 3:01am
Without filter not really useful.
If last candle is up candle R1 will rise ca. 10% and S1 will fall ca. 10% too.
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  • #39
  • Sep 25, 2025 3:28am Sep 25, 2025 3:28am
1h pivot data is even worse.
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As I mentioned intraday volatility changes a lot.
From low volatility to high volatility. Volatility cycle ( clearly visible on GER40 hourly candle ranges ) :

- pre-market ( low )
- market open ( high )
- lunch time ( low )
- pre-market close ( high )
- after market close ( low )

1 hour average ranges in points and % difference compared to previous candle range.
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Do you really want same data for NAS100 ? No problem I can do it but data will be similar.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #40
  • Sep 25, 2025 3:47am Sep 25, 2025 3:47am
@Nellycopter

If you want you use pivot point in your trading I recommend to use daily and weekly.
GER40 daily pivot data with filter where price opened today.
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Same for weekly pivots
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