Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Tuesday December 5 at 11:00 ET

Exit Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65 at market price of about 226.90

After more reflection it seems probable that GBP/JPY will descend to a new low. Therefore exit at market price of about 226.90. Re-enter a long trade at the bottom of the downwards wave 5.

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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 4:00 ET

Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65
Stop is 226.19
Target is 230.00
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is 326 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only

The wave hypothesis of this trade experiment is that GBP/JPY has gone up on a wave 1, 2, and 3 of Wave 5 and then down in an especially large Wave C of a wave 4 of Wave 5 down to the recent low of 226.48.

The rising GBP/USD, especially if USD/JPY also reverses and heads upwards, will cause a strong rise of GBP/JPY in its wave 5 of Wave 5 up to a new high at 230.00 or higher.

So do we still long on gbpchf ??

Thanks, Dragon Slayer.

Tuesday December 5 at 12:00 ET

We need to exit our long GBP/CHF trade also in anticipation of a drop produced by a strong fall in GBP/USD, and re-evaluate this strongly declining wave.

Exit Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510 at market price of about 2.3515 to 2.3520.

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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday December 5 at 10:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510
Stop is 2.3458
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 67 pips
Reward is 275 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large Wave C of an upwards WAVE 4.

Tuesday December 5 at 12:00 ET

The strong rise in EUR/USD has been impelling EUR/AUD up in a corrective Wave A 1-2-3-4-5 wave pattern. When the EUR/USD finishes its last big Wave 5 of the third wave of an extended Wave 3 up, then EUR/AUD will likely reach the top, and offer a good low risk : high reward trading opportunity for a Wave B down. The price of EUR/AUD will be at about 1.7000 at that time. The target will be about 1.6500.

Thanks Itme for the reply

itme,

it would be usefull if you could post your charts just once so that one could learn from how you are approaching the counts, patterns, direction and levels from multi time frames.

Thanks

GBP/USD update for Tuesday December 5 at 19:30 ET

After leaving this chart and then returning to re-evaluate it "freshly", I believe that we are still not quite finished the downwards Wave A of the corrective Wave 4 following the large upwards Wave 3.3.5.

After the strong trending of the past weeks the market is shifting into "slow motion", and the cycle periods are lengthening logarithmically. We are in a consolidation cycle before the next and last upwards wave of this larger trend. Wave A may have reached its lowest point near to our long entry price of 1.9680 (the current low is 1.9677) , but the wave pattern is not yet complete. It will either descend to put in a new low, or reverse at the upwards trendline at about 1.9705 to 1.9713 and then continue its climb to 1.9834 to 1.9880 to complete the upwards Wave B of the downwards Wave 4.

Furthermore, EUR/GBP is showing signs of being about to reverse downwards again, which usually indicates that GBP/USD will start trending upwards.

The next good low risk / high reward trade opportunity will be at the bottom of Wave A, when the last downwards mini-wave shows signs of completion, trading upwards to 1.9834 to 1.9880.

If our above wave hypothesis is incorrect, then the Waves A, B and C of the downwards corrective Wave 4 may all be complete, in which case the above long trade has the potential to rise all the way to 1.9900 and possibly beyond, depending on the outcome of announcements and other fundamental events along the way.

Upcoming announcements:
<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">Wed. 12/06</td> <td class="alt2"> 12:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt2">Leading Index m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">50.0%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">18.2%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3245" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3245" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures overall economic health by combining ten indicators including average weekly hours, new orders, consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads. The Leading Index is published monthly by The Conference Board, a private US research group, but traders tend to pay little attention because the components that make up the index are reported at an earlier date.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 4:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt2">German Retail PMI</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">53.8</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3246" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3246" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Retail Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the retail sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 4:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt2">Industrial Production m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.0%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3221" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3221" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the total value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because high levels of production are a sign of a strong economy. Industrial Production reacts quickly to the ups and downs of the business cycle and can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income. Traders pay special attention to Industrial Production because it's one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Federal Reserve.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 4:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt2">Manufacturing Production m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.0%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.0%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3222" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3222" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the total value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing Production differs from Industrial Production in that it only measures the 13 sub-sectors of production that relate directly to manufacturing. Manufacturing industries make up about 80% of total Industrial Production.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 6:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt2">German Factory Orders m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.6%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">-2.5%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3247" style="" align="center"> [] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3247" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for hard goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 8:15am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">ADP Nonfarm Employment Change</td></tr></thead> </table>
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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 11:00 ET

After more reflection it seems probable that GBP/USD will descend to a new low. Therefore exit Trade Experiment #273 Buy GBP/USD at market price of 1.9705 to 1.9740, taking 20 to 55 pips of profit.

Re-enter a long trade at the bottom of the downwards wave 5, at about 1.9680 (assuming a failed fifth wave, which is possible) or lower (as low as about 1.9600 - more likely).

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Tuesday December 5 at 10:30 ET
Trade Experiment #273 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9680
Stop is 1.9648
Target is 1.9900
Risk is 36 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

The recent high on GBP/USD at 1.9846, according to our analysis, is the top of Wave 3.3.5 (the top of an extended Wave 3). Based on the current wave pattern I believe that we have just completed Wave C of the downwards corrective A-B-C Wave 4, and that the turnaround point is 1.9680. This is in near agreement with the price movement suggested earlier by FixMe1-2.

After reversing at about 1.9680 the price is expected to rise about 220 pips in the form of an impulse Wave 5 up to at least 1.9900, which presents a potential low risk / high reward trade opportunity going long on GBP/USD.

EUR/JPY update for Tuesday December 5 at 21:00 ET

We issued a trade experiment to sell EUR/JPY at 154.00 called Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 154.00 which predicted the top of a large wave 15 pips from the high point at 154.15. However, due to uncertainties about the wave count we exited at 153.68 with only 40 pips of profit, instead of our planned 151 pips. Subsequently the price fell to a recent low of 152.60, 40 pips past our target.

The moral of this story is that when we develop uncertainty about a trade, we should consider simply moving the stop up to a break even position, rather than exiting the trade with a small profit. After all, our analysis upon which the trade was predicated certainly had some merit in most cases, so the trade is worth playing out unless there is plainly good cause to exit it early.

In this case, we went into the trade knowingly with a fuzzy wave count, but we had strong evidence based on our Q theory that a reversal would occur at the indicated price. In order to discover the predictive power of an especially clear and powerful Q signal, we entered this trade as an experiment. It succeeded admirably, and the low so far is 152.70, 130 pips lower than the entry price, making this a very successful trade experiment.
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Previous trade experiment:

Monday December 4 at 3:30 ET

Exit Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 1.5368

Upon further reflection the risk of this trade is a little high. It is best to take 40 pips of profit and wait for a new high. There is a good chance that there may be a new high put in before this upwards trend reverses.

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Previous trade signal and comment:

Friday December 1 at 10:00 ET

Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 154.00
Stop is 154.26
Target is 153.00
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 151 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

This is a retroactive trade, to test our wave theory. The wave count is somewhat confusing, but the entry point is a very precise and strong high probability reversal value. We are not sure, but this may be a corrective fourth wave down.
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EUR/JPY Update for Tuesday November 28 at 4:30 ET

The upwards wave three just completed (presumably) was somewhat larger than expected, because USD/JPY rose in tandem with the strong rise in EUR/USD, instead of falling as is the usual behavior of USD/JPY while EUR/USD rises.

We expect next on EUR/JPY a large Wave 4 A-B-C downwards corrective wave followed by the final upwards impulse wave to about 155.00

master, would you mind to tell me/us which is the price for wave 5?
thank you

Thou shalt have only 1 master!

Monarch

GBP/JPY Update for Wednesday December 6 at 4:00 ET

GBP/JPY is headed down to an estimated target of 225.40 to 225.55. After that it is expected to rise to 230.00

However, it may turn around at 225.70. This is a price which we calculated several days ago based on a different form of analysis, and the argument is quite persuasive.

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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 11:00 ET
Exit Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65 at market price of about 226.90
After more reflection it seems probable that GBP/JPY will descend to a new low. Therefore exit at market price of about 226.90. Re-enter a long trade at the bottom of the downwards wave 5.
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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 4:00 ET
Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65
Stop is 226.19
Target is 230.00
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is 326 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only

The wave hypothesis of this trade experiment is that GBP/JPY has gone up on a wave 1, 2, and 3 of Wave 5 and then down in an especially large Wave C of a wave 4 of Wave 5 down to the recent low of 226.48.

The rising GBP/USD, especially if USD/JPY also reverses and heads upwards, will cause a strong rise of GBP/JPY in its wave 5 of Wave 5 up to a new high at 230.00 or higher.

1. Today 04:30am
   
   *(UK) OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MOM -0.8% V 0.1%E; YOY 0.6% V 1.6%E - Prior MoM reading revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%. - Prior YoY revised upwards to 0.7% from 0.5%. - MoM lowest since November of 2005
3. Today 04:30am
   
   *(UK) OCT MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION: MOM -0.4% V 0.2%E; YOY 2.5% V 3.0%E - Prior YoY revised higher to 2.2% from 2.0%. - MoM is lowest since November of 2005.

Note: the above negative news pushed GBP/USD and EUR/USD down lower than they would otherwise have gone, providing a good low risk / high reward trading opportunity to buy either of these pairs, with the target being either the top of the consolidation range or the top of a new fifth impulse wave leading to the ultimate high of this THIRD WAVE up.

Wednesday December 6 at 4:45 ET

Trade Experiment #274 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9635

Stop is 1.9595

Target is 1.9900

Risk is 44 pips

Reward is 261 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our first wave hypothesis in this case is that we are trading Wave B of Wave 4 upwards. Our second wave hypothesis is that Waves A, B, and C of Wave 4 are finished, so we are trading of Wave 5 upwards. We are not sure which of these is the case, so we will watch this one very carefully.
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Previous update:

GBP/USD update for Tuesday December 5 at 19:30 ET

After leaving this chart and then returning to re-evaluate it "freshly", I believe that we are still not quite finished the downwards Wave A of the corrective Wave 4 following the large upwards Wave 3.3.5.

After the strong trending of the past weeks the market is shifting into "slow motion", and the cycle periods are lengthening logarithmically. We are in a consolidation cycle before the next and last upwards wave of this larger trend. Wave A may have reached its lowest point near to our long entry price of 1.9680 (the current low is 1.9677) , but the wave pattern is not yet complete. It will either descend to put in a new low, or reverse at the upwards trendline at about 1.9705 to 1.9713 and then continue its climb to 1.9834 to 1.9880 to complete the upwards Wave B of the downwards Wave 4.

Furthermore, EUR/GBP is showing signs of being about to reverse downwards again, which usually indicates that GBP/USD will start trending upwards.

The next good low risk / high reward trade opportunity will be at the bottom of Wave A, when the last downwards mini-wave shows signs of completion, trading upwards to 1.9834 to 1.9880.

If our above wave hypothesis is incorrect, then the Waves A, B and C of the downwards corrective Wave 4 may all be complete, in which case the above long trade has the potential to rise all the way to 1.9900 and possibly beyond, depending on the outcome of announcements and other fundamental events along the way.

Wednesday December 6 at 6:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272B Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3490

Stop is 2.3458

Target is 2.3800

Risk is 47 pips

Reward is 295 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large Wave C of an upwards WAVE 4.

p.s. - The entry price minus 8 of 2.3482 was met at 7:00 ET December 6

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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 12:00 ET

We need to exit our long GBP/CHF trade also in anticipation of a drop produced by a strong fall in GBP/USD, and re-evaluate this strongly declining wave.

Exit Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510 at market price of about 2.3515 to 2.3520.

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Tuesday December 5 at 10:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510
Stop is 2.3458
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 67 pips
Reward is 275 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large Wave C of an upwards WAVE 4.

Wednesday December 6 at 6:00 ET

Trade Experiment #275 Buy EUR/CAD at 1.5138

Stop is 151.08

Target is 1.5385

Risk is 40 pips

Reward is 237 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large upwards trend.

Wednesday December 6 at 6:30 ET

Re-enter Trade Experiment #271A Buy GBP/JPY at 225.74

Stop is 225.28

Target is 230.00

Risk is 55 pips

Reward is 417 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 11:00 ET

Exit Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65 at market price of about 226.90

After more reflection it seems probable that GBP/JPY will descend to a new low. Therefore exit at market price of about 226.90. Re-enter a long trade at the bottom of the downwards wave 5.

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Tuesday December 5 at 4:00 ET

Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65
Stop is 226.19
Target is 230.00
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is 326 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only

The wave hypothesis of this trade experiment is that GBP/JPY has gone up on a wave 1, 2, and 3 of Wave 5 and then down in an especially large Wave C of a wave 4 of Wave 5 down to the recent low of 226.48.

The rising GBP/USD, especially if USD/JPY also reverses and heads upwards, will cause a strong rise of GBP/JPY in its wave 5 of Wave 5 up to a new high at 230.00 or higher.

Wednesday December 6 at 6:30 ET

Trade Signal #276 Buy EUR/JPY at 152.28

Stop is 151.94

Target is 154.35

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 204 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Previous trade experiment:

EUR/JPY update for Tuesday December 5 at 21:00 ET

We issued a trade experiment to sell EUR/JPY at 154.00 called Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 154.00 which predicted the top of a large wave 15 pips from the high point at 154.15. However, due to uncertainties about the wave count we exited at 153.68 with only 40 pips of profit, instead of our planned 151 pips. Subsequently the price fell to a recent low of 152.60, 40 pips past our target.

The moral of this story is that when we develop uncertainty about a trade, we should consider simply moving the stop up to a break even position, rather than exiting the trade with a small profit. After all, our analysis upon which the trade was predicated certainly had some merit in most cases, so the trade is worth playing out unless there is plainly good cause to exit it early.

In this case, we went into the trade knowingly with a fuzzy wave count, but we had strong evidence based on our Q theory that a reversal would occur at the indicated price. It did, and the low so far is 152.70, 130 pips lower than the entry price, making this a very successful trade experiment.
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Monday December 4 at 3:30 ET

Exit Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 1.5368

Upon further reflection the risk of this trade is a little high. It is best to take 40 pips of profit and wait for a new high. There is a good chance that there may be a new high put in before this upwards trend reverses.
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Previous trade signal and comment:

Friday December 1 at 10:00 ET
Trade Signal #268 Sell EUR/JPY at 154.00
Stop is 154.26
Target is 153.00
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 151 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

This is a retroactive trade, to test our wave theory. The wave count is somewhat confusing, but the entry point is a very precise and strong high probability reversal value. We are not sure, but this may be a corrective fourth wave down.
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EUR/JPY Update for Tuesday November 28 at 4:30 ET

The upwards wave three just completed (presumably) was somewhat larger than expected, because USD/JPY rose in tandem with the strong rise in EUR/USD, instead of falling as is the usual behavior of USD/JPY while EUR/USD rises.

We expect next on EUR/JPY a large Wave 4 A-B-C downwards corrective wave followed by the final upwards impulse wave to about 155.00

Our trade experiment Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00 was highly successful, with the exception that we placed the entry price 2 pips higher than the current price when the trade was entered, which was ridiculous. The updated target of 100.30 was reached on December 5. The cumulative Reward / Risk Ratio for this two part trade is 14.5 to 1, meaning that for every $1,000 risked, the return was $14,500. With a 20% risk factor, this one trade would counter the influence of 12 losing trades.
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CAD/JPY went past conservative target - market on steroids today <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Friday December 1 at 11:30 ET

The target we gave for CAD/JPY of 100.97 was the most conservative target. With the market being on steroids this morning, the movement was augmented, surpassing this target. Actually, I made an error, and the correct conservative target is actually 100.83, not 100.97. But with the market being on steroids this morning, the modified target is 100.30. It stopped for a pause at the end of wave 3 at 100.55, but after the wave 4 rest is finished it should continue its journey down to 100.30. This adds 67 pips to the original target for Part II of the trade, which increases the RRR for Part II to 4.0 : 1 and the cumulative RRR to 14.5
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Previous comments:

Near miss of entry into winning trade here - Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Friday December 1 at 7:30 ET

When I placed the trade signal for this trade experiment - Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00, I was thinking that the sensible thing would be to place the entry price at the current price (at the time) of 102.98, rather than risk losing the trade over 2 pips.

But, just to be a little nutty, I entered the price of 103.00, only 2 pips higher than the current price, which I thought at the time was the system correct entry price. And sure enough - it didn't even rise 2 pips more to catch the entry price that I thought, according to my analysis, it should meet.

But the inherent error in my analysis is at least 3- 5 pips - so the thinking that underlay my decision was obviously flawed. Anyways, the trade concept was basically correct, except for the fussy entry price 2 pips off of the actual top. A vindication for my trading system, and another lesson learnt - don't try to be a perfectionist! If I hadn't made the stupid error of going for an extra 2 pips, the result would have been: Reward is 150 pips; Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1.

I just checked my calculations, and the correct entry price according to our system was 102.96 - so the error was in my calculations, not the system, as well as my fussiness and over-confidence in my system , which is pretty amazingly accurate and reliable if I can manage to apply it correctly.

The low so far is 101.12, 19 pips past our target of 101.40. (The corrected target was 101.36. By monitoring the trade carefully and correcting the target, the result would improve to Reward is 154 pips;
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.75 to 1.) The target was deliberately set at the expected bottom of Wave 3. After our target was hit, the price rose in a large, clearly defined A-B-C Wave 4, up to 102.05, which was exactly where our system would have placed the top of Wave C. The correct play would have been to re-enter a sell trade at 102.05, and to trade down Wave 5 with the same stop as before, but with a new target of 100.97.

If Part II of this trade, the trade from the top of Wave 4 to the bottom of Wave 5, is successful, then the result will be a RRR of 2.4 : 1 for Part II. Therefore the cumulative RRR of the two parts of the trade will be 9.0 :1

Note to all the naysayers out there who might be reading this: though my system is not perfect yet, and my execution is less than flawless, this one anaemic trade with a RRR of only 3.6 to 1 in Part I, if I had entered it live, and did everything right, and if it hits its target for Part II, would balance out 6 losing trades.
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Tuesday November 28 at 6:45 ET
Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00
Stop is 103.31
Target is 101.40
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 150 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

The price may not rise again to reach our entry price on this trade. Furthermore, the RRR is less than 5.0 to 1. This trade is simply an experiment to test our theory and to practise our skills in implementing it.

Wednesday December 6 at 7:00 ET

Retroactive Trade Experiment:

Upon careful examination CAD/JPY reached a very clear fully system compliant entry price at exactly 100.13, just a few pips lower than our conservative target of 100.30 of our short trade Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00

On a large scale, this is the very beginning of a large upwards Third Wave of an even larger upwards FIFTH WAVE.

Trade Experiment #277 Buy CAD/JPY at 100.13

Stop is 99.88

Target is 106.20

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 597 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 17.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday December 6 at 7:00 ET

A fresh look at Trade Signal #259A Sell CHF/JPY at 96.97 indicates that we have probably been trading down a corrective wave, not an impulse wave, and the correct exit point would be the double bottom at 95.90, providing a profit of about 100 pips.

Exit Trade Signal #259A Sell CHF/JPY at market price, currently about 96.08

The price should now rise to complete the long upwards trend at about 97.50.
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Previous trade experiment:

Friday December 1 at 3:30 ET

Trade Signal #259A Sell CHF/JPY at 96.97
Stop is 97.31
Target is 92.50
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 437 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 12.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

We have a virtually perfect trade here, with a clear 5 wave set up and a high probability reversal value, plus a triple top to triangulate on the precise pivot point.
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Tuesday November 28 at 6:00 ET
Trade Signal #259 Sell CHF/JPY at 96.44
Stop is 96.77
Target is 92.50
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 386 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.4 to 1

For research purposes only.