What happen in the market today?

Silver prices surge to record highs for 2025

Silver prices showed significant movement on Monday. They drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. This extended the previous rally since late August 2025. Silver prices formed a high of 40,753, a low of 39,531, and a close of 40,701 on FXOpen's trading platform.

The main driver of silver prices is that this asset is often considered a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. Reports indicate ongoing geopolitical turmoil, which supports bullish sentiment toward precious metals, including silver.

Furthermore, silver production does not always keep pace with industrial demand, thus supporting price increases. Silver, besides being a safe-haven investment asset, also serves a dual purpose as an industrial raw material, particularly for solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles. Stable or high demand without sufficient production will drive prices up.

The weakening US dollar is also a focus for traders. The US dollar index is currently weakening. One reason for this weakening is expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the USD's attractiveness, and investors are tending to choose other assets, including silver.

Recent US economic data has shown mixed signals. US GDP reportedly grew in the second quarter, which could support the USD. However, the market will be more focused on upcoming data such as the Non-Farm Payrolls report and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which could provide further clues regarding the Fed's policy direction.

The Fed is currently awaiting economic data to decide its next move. While there are strong expectations for an interest rate cut, any stronger-than-expected economic data could delay that plan, potentially strengthening the USD and pressuring silver prices.

Current market sentiment is bullish, and silver has recorded significant price increases, reaching record highs throughout 2025. In recent sessions, silver prices have broken through key levels and finally reached a 14-year high. However, the risk of a pullback remains, with the RSI indicator currently showing overbought levels, indicating potential for short-term consolidation or a pullback.

Traders' focus going forward will be on US economic data, particularly the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on September 5th. Weaker data will further strengthen expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could support silver prices. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the USD and depress silver prices.

The Australian dollar hovered around 0.65100 ahead of Australia's second-quarter GDP release.

The AUD/USD price movement on Tuesday drew a bearish candle with a long body and a relatively long wick at the bottom of the candle. After touching the upper band, the price bounced to the downside. AUDUSD formed a high of 0.65594, a low of 0.64833, and a close of 0.65194 on FXOpen's trading platform. The price movement fell from the upper band, crossing the middle band before returning above the middle band.

The AUDUSD price decline appears to have been largely driven by US PMI data showing contraction. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey indicated that overall activity remained in contraction, with production and employment remaining weak. ForexFactory reported the ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 48.7, lower than the expected 49.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose in response to this data with a bullish candle, rising approximately 0.65% from 97.624 to a high of 98.595. The strengthening USD pressured the Australian dollar, which ultimately plunged from its highest level to its lowest level during the session.

From a fundamental perspective, the RBA has cut its benchmark interest rate several times, currently at 3.60%. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and Australian inflation has eased, with recent data within the RBA's 2-3% target range. The dominant market expectation is that the RBA will cut rates again at its September meeting, although there are differing views. This cut could put pressure on the AUD.

On the other hand, the Fed is also expected to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The current interest rate is in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Although analysts differ in their views, the majority of the market expects a 25 basis point cut. A dovish signal from the Fed could put pressure on the USD.

Australian GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 was just released. The Australian economy grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slowing from the previous quarter. This figure was lower than expected, and this slowing growth strengthens the case for the RBA to continue its monetary easing cycle.

On the other hand, US GDP data showed solid growth in the second quarter of 3.3% after a contraction in the first quarter. This strong growth, combined with a relatively tight labor market, could provide some support for the USD.

As a commodity currency, the AUD is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. When risk sentiment is positive or risk-on, the AUD tends to strengthen. Conversely, when sentiment is negative or risk-off, the AUD tends to weaken.

Other important US data could influence volatility. Today, the US will release JOLTS Job Openings, which are expected to decline from the previous revision. This is a key indicator of the US economy. If the actual data is higher than expected, it is a positive sign and could support the US dollar's strengthening.

WTI oil prices corrected after failing to break through the MA50.

The price of WTI (World Texas Intermediate) oil on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. Oil prices depreciated after failing to break through the 50-day moving average (MA50), which acted as a dynamic resistance level. Oil prices reached a high of 65.35, a low of 63.55, and closed at 63.58, according to FXOpen's trading platform.

The oil price plunge was influenced by various factors, including economic strengths and weaknesses, geopolitical events that can impact oil supply and demand, and the role of OPEC+, a key pillar in global oil distribution.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, recently agreed to increase oil production. This decision, effective in September, could put downward pressure on oil prices by increasing supply in the global market. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on September 7, 2025. Speculation regarding the outcome of this meeting could cause price volatility. Some analysts expect OPEC+ to maintain its voluntary production cuts, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Russia, while awaiting clearer demand data after the US summer holiday season. If OPEC+ chooses to withhold supply, this could support oil prices; conversely, if they decide to increase production further, oil prices could potentially fall.

From a geopolitical perspective, US sanctions against entities involved in oil shipping, particularly those linked to Iran, could impact global supply. The market reacted by strengthening oil prices due to concerns that supplies from non-sanctioned sources would become increasingly limited. Elsewhere, ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, including the potential for sanctions escalation, continue to be a major geopolitical risk factor. These tensions could disrupt the supply chain and push oil prices up due to increased risk premiums.

Another focus is on economic and inventory data. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report is often a key driver of oil prices. The upcoming weekly release of crude oil inventory data on September 5th is crucial. If the data shows an increase in inventories, it indicates weak demand and could depress oil prices. Conversely, a decrease in inventories indicates strong demand and supports oil prices.

After the summer holiday season ends, there are usually concerns about a decline in gasoline demand. This could be a factor that puts downward pressure on oil prices, although inventory data will provide clearer confirmation.

Oil prices are also inversely correlated with the USD. Oil prices traded in US dollars tend to trade inversely. If the US dollar weakens, oil prices tend to rise. Conversely, if the USD strengthens, oil prices tend to weaken. This movement in the US dollar can influence the XTI/USD movement.

Today, oil prices are likely to be highly dependent on sentiment ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week and the release of relevant US economic data.

USD/JPY gapped at the opening market.

On Friday, the US dollar and Japanese yen currency pair formed a long bearish candle with a wick below the candle. The price formed a high of 148.515, a low of 146.818, and a close of 147.387 on FXOpen's trading platform. Today, Monday, September 8, 2025, the USD/JPY open price is well above Friday's closing price, with the USD/JPY opening at 148.077.

Factors influencing market sentiment include recent data, which indicates weak US employment. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed job gains that fell short of market expectations. This figure reinforces the signal that the US labor market is slowing. Market implications of weaker-than-expected data will increase speculation that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate soon, at its September meeting. Lower interest rates are less attractive to investors for the USD and support the strengthening of the JPY.

Inflation data due this week will be a major focus. While concerns about inflation persist, the market appears to be more influenced by signs of economic slowdown, as evidenced by employment data. If inflation data shows a decline, or at least no significant increase, this would further confirm speculation about a Fed interest rate cut and potentially put further pressure on the USD.

The slight correction on Wall Street suggests investors are weighing economic concerns against optimism about a rate cut. The weakening of the US dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen, reflects this shift in sentiment.

The Japanese yen is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency. Amid concerns about global fiscal instability and a US economic slowdown, investors tend to shift to safer assets, including the Japanese yen. Increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven has boosted the currency, particularly against the depressed US dollar.

In Japan, despite political uncertainty surrounding the resignation of the ruling party, which could impact the Prime Minister, the market appears to have reacted less to this news. Market focus is more on global economic data and key monetary policies, compared to Japan's domestic political turmoil, which has not significantly affected current currency movements.

The BoJ has previously indicated its intention to continue gradual monetary tightening. Recent statements from BoJ officials indicate that the central bank is monitoring economic growth and exchange rate movements. The BoJ's current policy pause and the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the future provide structural support for the yen. This contrasts with the Fed's expected rate cuts.

Based on recent data, USD/JPY movement tends to be under pressure from the US dollar. The USD's weakening was driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut following disappointing employment data. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is supported by its status as a safe-haven currency amid global uncertainty and the BoJ's policy, which still signals future monetary tightening.

NZD/USD Strengthens Amid USD Weakness

The NZD/USD pair rose for two consecutive days amid a weakening US dollar amid growing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut. Furthermore, strong trade balance figures from China, New Zealand's main trading partner, supported the NZD's strength.

Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom side, successfully crossing the middle band line and approaching the 50-day moving average (MA). The NZD/USD price formed a high of 0.59454, a low of 0.58710, and a close of 0.59397, according to the FXOpen platform.

Fundamentally, the NZD/USD pair's price movement is influenced by economic data released from New Zealand and the US, as well as overall market sentiment. The latest information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained its benchmark interest rate (OCR) at 3.25%. However, the central bank still maintains a dovish bias, which could allow the RBNZ to consider future interest rate cuts.

New Zealand's economic performance shows signs of recovery, supported by high export prices and lower interest rates. However, there are concerns that this recovery could slow due to global policy uncertainty and tariff issues.

New Zealand's economic data today is of particular interest to traders, with the upcoming Bill Auction, an auction of 1-year, 3-month, and 6-month Treasury notes to be released, providing insight into investor sentiment toward New Zealand government debt. First-quarter 2025 employment data showed minimal growth and a stable unemployment rate, but near its highest level in 4-5 years. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose above market consensus. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects core inflation to remain high.

Concerning factors from the United States, market sentiment toward the USD is currently bearish as the market bets on the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. Recent US employment data reinforces this expectation, although upcoming inflation data will be crucial.

Today's US economic data likely to be of interest to traders is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which provides insight into the health of the small business sector in the US. Weaker results could raise concerns about an economic slowdown and put further pressure on the USD.

The quarterly retail trade financial report, released by the US Census Bureau, will provide an overview of the retail sector economy.

Although both central banks, the RBNZ and the Fed, are currently exhibiting a dovish bias, the current narrative focuses more on expectations of a Fed interest rate cut. If global market sentiment tends to be risk-on (investors prefer riskier assets), the NZD, as a commodity currency, could tend to strengthen. Conversely, if market sentiment tends to be risk-off (investors turn to safe assets), the USD could strengthen.

Gold Hits New Record High of $3,674 per troy ounce

Gold prices have again set a new all-time high for 2025. Yesterday, Tuesday, gold prices rose to a high of $3,674 at the start of the American session. This increase was in line with news indicating that Israel launched an attack on Qatar, targeting Hamas leaders, including Khalil Al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin.

On Tuesday, gold prices drew a bearish candle with a wick at the top of the candle, indicating a downward movement after reaching an all-time high and closing lower. Gold formed a high of 3,674, a low of 3,625, and a close of 3,626 on FXOpen's platform.

Based on fundamental analysis, gold's rise was primarily driven by rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, likely to begin this September. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points with a 92.7% probability at its September 17 meeting.

The impact of the Fed's looser policies has made the yields on dollar-based assets such as bonds less attractive. As a result, investors have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold, which offers no yield but serves as a hedge against inflation and global economic uncertainty. The weakening USD has increased the appeal of gold because it is priced in dollars.

US economic data, such as weak NFP figures, have fueled concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Furthermore, uncertain geopolitical conditions have also driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Another factor supporting gold is the strong and sustained demand from central banks. Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves as a diversification from fixed currencies, especially the US dollar. These purchases create solid physical demand in the market, providing strong support for gold prices from a fundamental perspective.

The gold price outlook for the next few years is expected to be very positive, with several factors supporting this outlook:

Continued monetary easing. Many analysts, including those from major institutions like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, project gold prices could reach $4,250 by 2026. The reason is that the Fed has truly begun its cycle of interest rate cuts and monetary policy loosening, which will continue to put pressure on the USD and increase gold's appeal. This situation could persist for the next few years, providing conducive support for gold prices to rise.

Persistent inflation. Many economists believe that inflation will remain a global issue in the long term. Gold is known as an effective hedge against inflation. If inflation continues to rise or remains high in various countries, investors will continue to hoard gold to protect the purchasing power of their assets.

Global geopolitical and economic tensions. Geopolitical risks due to war, particularly in the Middle East, show no signs of abating. If this continues for the next few years, it could support gold prices as a safe haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty.

Gold price predictions for 2027-2030: Some analysts even predict a significant increase, projected to reach a range of $4,812-$6,546. This long-term projection is based on the assumption that gold will continue to be a highly valuable asset amidst the changing global economic and political landscape.

Today, market participants will turn their attention to inflation data in the United States (US). The country will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month on Thursday. Inflation data will receive extra attention after disappointing employment figures and ahead of the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) monetary policy announcement next week.

EUR/USD pair movement remains calm ahead of the ECB interest rate decision

The EURUSD price movement on Wednesday was relatively stable, drawing a small-bodied bearish candle with short shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.17302, a low of 1.16825, and a close of 1.16948 on FXOpen's platform. The price movement was slightly above the middle band line.

The recent weakening of the USD has stabilized, with EURUSD above the 1.1700 level after the US PPI index data released yesterday showed weakness. This disappointing PPI data has strengthened market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut. However, geopolitical risks, including global geopolitical tensions, especially amidst the ongoing war, could increase demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency, which could put pressure on EURUSD.

The EURUSD price movement today, September 11th, is expected to be highly volatile and highly variable due to the influence of two major economic events scheduled for today, both in Europe and the US.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will release its latest interest rate decision today. Market consensus projects the key interest rate will be maintained at 2.15%. If the ECB maintains the expected rate, the impact may not be too surprising if it meets expectations. However, what will be of interest to investors and possibly trigger volatility is the ECB President's press conference following the announcement. Traders will be looking for hawkish or dovish clues. If the ECB President hints at the possibility of a future interest rate cut or expresses concerns about eurozone economic growth, this could pressure the euro and cause a decline in EURUSD. Conversely, if the ECB President signals a hawkish stance by stating that they are prepared to keep interest rates high for longer to combat inflation, this could support the euro and drive EURUSD higher.

In the US, key inflation data will be released today, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data. The annual CPI projection is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% previously. The monthly CPI projection is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. The projected unemployment claims are projected to fall slightly to 234,000 from 237,000 previously.

This data analysis is crucial because it will influence market expectations regarding future Fed policy. If the CPI data is higher than expected, it indicates that inflationary pressures in the US remain strong. This could support USD strength because the market expects the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer, or even consider raising them. This scenario could potentially lead to a decline in the EURUSD. Conversely, if the CPI data is lower than expected, it indicates that inflation is starting to ease. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates are increasing, which could weaken the USD, potentially driving EURUSD higher.

Meanwhile, jobless claims data, although not as strong as the CPI, provides insight into the health of the US labor market. A lower-than-expected jobless claims figure indicates a strong labor market and supports USD strength. Conversely, a higher figure could weaken the US dollar.

A bullish scenario would be if the US CPI data is lower than expected, or if the ECB issues hawkish comments. A bearish scenario would be if the US CPI data comes in higher than expected, supporting USD strength, or if the ECB issues dovish or very cautious comments. However, the market could move sideways if both parties cancel each other out, for example, if the US CPI is slightly below expectations, but the ECB also gives a less-than-strong signal.

Oil prices plummet after the US releases CPI data

The XTI/USD price movement on Thursday drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. WTI oil prices fell from a high of 63.47 to a low of 61.97 and closed at 62.00 on FXOpen's trading platform. The downward movement in oil prices ended the previous three-day winning streak.

The decline in oil prices coincided with the release of disappointing US inflation and jobless claims data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a core CPI of 0.3%, meeting expectations. The monthly CPI rose 0.4%, higher than the previous month's 0.3%. The annual CPI was 2.9%. US jobless claims rose to 263,000, up from the forecast of 235,000. This higher data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut to boost the labor market.

Another fundamental report that draws attention to the dynamics of oil supply and demand is the US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This can be a key driver of supply and demand indicators. Based on the latest available data, dated August 8, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected. This increase in inventories could theoretically exert downward pressure on oil prices, indicating a supply surplus. However, the market will be paying close attention to the subsequent EIA report, which may show a different figure. The market can be highly sensitive to this data.

The market is also anticipating seasonal demand; reports indicate that the market is anticipating the end of the summer "driving season" in the United States. This often leads to expectations of reduced gasoline demand and can put downward pressure on oil prices.

Geopolitical conflicts are also in focus. Market sentiment is influenced by the Russia-Ukraine war. News of a potential meeting between US and Russian leaders to discuss a ceasefire could raise hopes for a resolution to the conflict, potentially lifting sanctions on Russian oil supplies, which could increase global supply and depress oil prices. However, a possible escalation of the war after Poland opened the floodgates to Russia's war with NATO could push up oil prices.

The US tariff policy, which postponed new tariffs with China, has provided positive market sentiment. A trade deal or ceasefire in the tariff war could boost the global economy, which in turn could boost oil demand.

OPEC+ has announced the release of significant production cuts, including an additional 547 kb/d for September, accelerating the return of supply to the market. Non-OPEC producers are also increasing output, significantly increasing global supply.

Demand growth in China, Brazil, India, and several other developing countries has fallen short of expectations, indicating a demand slowdown. Consumption in the OECD region has remained relatively flat, indicating that growth in developed economies cannot withstand the burden of the connection if external factors are unfavorable.

In the short term, there is potential for downward pressure on oil prices, particularly if output increases and inventories increase, and economic data from major economies shows weakness.

In the medium to long term, despite an inventory overhang and strong demand, geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production policies could still trigger upside if there are supply disruptions and policy changes.

BTC/USD Analysis, September 15, 2025

Bitcoin's price movement for three consecutive days has tended to remain within a narrow range, reluctant to extend the previous three days' gains. On Sunday, BTCUSD drew a small bullish candle, resembling a Doji candle, indicating an indecisive market. The price formed a high of 116224, a low of 115237, and a close of 115793. This price movement is near the upper band line.

BTC's price movement is heavily influenced by market sentiment, global macroeconomic news, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin's own fundamental factors.

Historically, September is known as "Red September" because Bitcoin tends to experience corrections. However, data shows that in September 2025, this sentiment was less affected, and Bitcoin's price reportedly experienced a fairly stable upward trend.

Institutional adoption appears to be continuing to increase, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have reportedly absorbed significant liquidity ($50 billion by July 2025). Furthermore, accumulation activity by large investors, often referred to as "whales," has reached a new record, indicating potential buybacks if market momentum rebounds.

Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut this week have created positive macroeconomic sentiment. Risk-on sentiment is created because these expectations could weaken the USD. This condition has historically benefited high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

The market is awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision this week. US inflation data that met expectations and a surge in unemployment rates have sparked signals of looser policy, which is a positive factor for Bitcoin.

The rise in gold prices and the weakening of the USD are due to the potential for a Fed interest rate cut. Gold and Bitcoin are often considered hedge assets, so a rise in gold can be a positive indicator for similar assets like Bitcoin. Although sometimes, when gold prices rise, Bitcoin prices correct, indicating a pattern of capital flows in the adoption of both.

Geopolitical risks. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, along with tensions in the Middle East, has impacted global oil prices and raised concerns about France's credit rating, indicating global economic uncertainty. Amid this uncertainty, alternative assets like Bitcoin are often sought by investors as a safe haven.

Crypto events in September 2025 are filled with various important events, such as Bitcoin Week Bali and ETHTokyo. These events can boost positive sentiment, encourage adoption, and trigger price volatility due to new project announcements or regulatory discussions.

Several symposia, including one in London, discussed pro-crypto regulations that could stimulate institutional capital inflows. Clear and positive regulatory developments are always a strong fundamental factor for the future of crypto.

In conclusion, Bitcoin currently has a fairly strong foundation. Positive factors such as increasing institutional adoption, whale accumulation, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and risk-on sentiment in global markets could drive price increases.

However, caution should be exercised regarding volatility triggered by macroeconomic announcements and geopolitical changes, as well as the volatile nature of the crypto market itself. So crypto investments are speculative.

Gold's unstoppable movement hits a new all-time high again

Gold prices appeared to rise significantly during Monday's trading session, again hitting a new all-time high for the 2025 price movement. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. Gold prices reached a high of $ 3,685, a low of $ 3,626, and closed at $ 3,678 on FXOpen's platform. Gold prices are targeting $ 3,700 per troy ounce.

There are several key fundamental drivers of the gold price increase. Market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the FOMC monetary policy meeting on September 6-17 have increased demand for gold and supported the rally. The US dollar has also tended to weaken, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. US Treasury yields, especially long-term ones, have also reportedly fallen in recent times, further supporting gold.

The US economy is in a mixed state, with inflation remaining quite high, particularly in the housing and energy sectors. The labor market is showing some weakness, with jobless claims rising. These data strengthen the argument that the Fed will adopt a more lenient policy stance going forward. However, persistently high inflation remains a risk, suggesting the Fed will be cautious in easing interest rates.

Global central banks in several countries are reportedly still actively buying gold to increase reserves as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Amidst the risks of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset. It appears that market expectations for an interest rate cut are currently quite high, causing investors to buy gold on rumors and may sell after the official decision. This calls for caution.

Several analysts project a more optimistic long-term gold price outlook. Goldman Sachs and UBS both have optimistic projections for gold prices for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Some projections suggest the potential for gold to break through the $3,700 level in the near future and even reach $3,900-$4,000 per troy oz by the end of the year or mid-2026.

Fundamentally, sentiment towards the XAU/USD gold price is currently bullish. The prospect of a Fed rate cut, supported by weaker US economic data, is a key driver. Gold is also considered a safe-haven asset amidst global economic uncertainty and demand from central banks.

However, risks remain. Traders need to monitor the official FOMC announcement, with the content of the dot-lot statement and forward guidance crucial. Movements in US bond yields, if yields rise sharply, could pressure gold prices. Unexpected geopolitical changes, or political or fiscal pressure on the Fed, could impact market confidence. Alternatively, a situation that causes the US dollar to rise again could be a headwind for gold.

Price movements are expected to increase leading up to and after the Fed's interest rate announcement, depending on data releases and the Fed's statement at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

The Canadian dollar strengthened for the fourth straight day as the USD weakened

The USDCAD price movement has trended downward, drawing a bearish candle for the fourth consecutive day. The pair's decline appears to be driven by bearish USD sentiment amid expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate cut. Yesterday, USDCAD drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.37807, a low of 1.37338, and a close of 1.37373 on FXOpen's platform. The price movement is now near the lower band line.

The USDCAD currency pair is in the spotlight today due to the highly anticipated interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (The Fed) scheduled for the near future. The outcomes of these central bank meetings will have a significant impact on market responses.

Currently, the BoC is strongly expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting. This expectation is driven by weak Canadian labor market data, with the unemployment rate rising and job losses higher than expected. A BoC interest rate cut could potentially push the USDCAD pair higher.

On the other hand, the US dollar is also facing pressure due to market expectations of more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Fed following the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report and weaker producer inflation data. Traders are beginning to consider the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed at this week's meeting. If the Fed cuts rates or signals a dovish stance, this could limit the potential upside of the USDCAD.

Canada is a country that relies heavily on crude oil exports. The Canadian dollar is also affected by fluctuations in oil prices. The current moderate recovery in oil prices supports the strengthening of the CAD, potentially limiting USDCAD gains.

A bullish scenario for the USDCAD pair: if the BoC cuts rates and issues a dovish statement, and the Fed is less aggressive in its monetary easing signals, USDCAD has the potential to rise. A bearish scenario: if the BoC maintains its interest rate or issues a hawkish statement, and the Fed clearly indicates a significant rate cut, USDCAD could experience a sharp decline.

Market sentiment ahead of the BoC interest rate tends to point to CAD weakness due to expectations of an interest rate cut. However, the weakening of the US dollar due to expectations of Fed easing could restrain the rise of USDCAD.

GBP/USD hovers near the upper band after the Fed's interest rate cut

The market responded to the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. The GBP/USD price briefly rose sharply, crossing the upper band at 1.37299. However, shortly after, the price plummeted to 1.36247, then fluctuated and closed at 1.36252. Yesterday, the GBP/USD price finally drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the top of the candle. This indicates that after strong upward pressure, substantial selling pressure pushed the price down, and it closed lower than the opening price.

The Fed finally decided to cut interest rates, marking the first cut this year, in line with market expectations. The cut was made in response to a weakening US labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025, its highest level in four years. The Fed has indicated that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials' median view for the final interest rate in 2025 is 3.6%. This indicates the Fed is adopting a more dovish stance, leaning toward easing policy.

Today, September 18, 2025, the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its interest rate. Market consensus projects the BoE will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%. In August, the BoE cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4.00%. However, UK inflation remains high at 3.8% in August 2025, the highest among developed economies. This situation places the BoE in a difficult position. They must balance supporting economic growth and controlling persistently high inflation. With persistent inflation, the BoE is likely to adopt a hawkish stance, tending to tighten monetary policy compared to the Fed, although it may not raise interest rates today.

A current factor supporting the pound is that the BoE is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.00%. The BoE's more hawkish stance compared to the Fed could make the pound more attractive to investors seeking higher yields. On the other hand, the Fed has officially lowered interest rates and hinted at further cuts. This more dovish stance could reduce the attractiveness of the USD. The weakness of the US labor market also provided negative sentiment for the USD.

Although theoretically, fundamental analysis points to GBP strengthening and USD weakening, the market may look different as increased volatility could produce short-term surprises that may not align with theoretical conclusions. Risk anticipation is absolutely necessary in volatile market dynamics. It's worth noting that today, in addition to the Bank of England's interest rate announcement, the US will also release jobless claims data. Market expectations are that jobless claims are projected to fall to 241k from 263k. Lower data could support the US dollar, allowing the GBP/USD pair to become more volatile.

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, is currently up 0.37% at 97.011, having previously fallen as low as 96.218. Despite the significant rebound, the DXY remains below its 20-day moving average (EMA), indicating a bearish sentiment.

Japanese Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BoJ Decision

USD/JPY continued its rise for a second day as the US dollar strengthened. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, while signaling a gradual easing path. Yesterday, the USD/JPY price formed a long-bodied bullish candle, extending the previous day's gains. The price formed a high of 148.265, a low of 146.772, and a close of 147.979 on FXOpen's platform. The USD/JPY price moved across the middle band from the downside, seeking the upper band target.

Japanese Yen traders today will focus on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy and compare it with the Fed's monetary easing policy. USD/JPY movements will be influenced by the interest rate path and the economic outlook of both countries.

The Fed's decision at the FOMC meeting on September 18, 2025, was to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%. This move was in line with market expectations, which had been anticipating a rate cut. The Fed signaled that there is still room for two more interest rate cuts. This reflects the Fed's concerns about slowing job growth and the risks of an economic downturn. Despite reportedly weakening US consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations, the market appears to remain optimistic. Major US stock indexes set new closing records, buoyed by market optimism following the Fed's rate cut.

Today, September 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision. The current benchmark interest rate is 0.50%. Market consensus suggests the BoJ will maintain the policy rate at that level. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference following the policy announcement. The market will be looking for clues regarding the BoJ's future monetary policy direction. A more dovish BoJ stance could put pressure on the Japanese yen. Conversely, a hawkish stance tends to support a stronger Japanese yen. Foreign investment data in Japanese stocks released today showed 106.6 billion yen. Furthermore, previous reports indicated that the Japanese economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2025, giving the BoJ some room to refrain from further policy easing.

Today's Japan CPI report will be crucial in gauging whether inflationary pressures continue to ease. Headline inflation eased to 3.1% year-on-year in July, down from 3.3% in June. The core index excluding fresh food also fell to 3.1% from 3.3% and is expected to cool further to 2.7% in August. In contrast, the core index excluding food and energy remained stable at 3.4% in both June and July, highlighting persistent domestic price pressures.

The Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a policy divergence. The Fed is in an easing cycle to support economic growth amidst a labor market slowdown. The BoJ, despite the still uncertain outlook, is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels. This divergence tends to keep the USD/JPY pair in an uptrend. The US dollar becomes more attractive to investors because it offers a higher yield compared to the Japanese yen. Although the Fed has cut interest rates, they are still significantly higher than the BoJ's interest rate.

Silver prices surged, driven by market sentiment and monetary policy.

Silver prices surged on Friday, closing with a long bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 43,083, a low of 41,642, and a close of 43,059 on FXOpen's platform.

The surge in silver prices on Friday, September 19th, was driven by a combination of factors, including the Fed's interest rate cut and industrial demand, which fueled the momentum.

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, September 17, 2025. Although the price increase was not immediate, as the market was still digesting its implications, the full effect began to be seen on Friday. This rate cut depressed the value of the US dollar and increased the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets like silver.

Silver demand in the industrial sector is also driving the rise in silver prices. Reports from various institutions, such as the World Silver Survey, indicate a structural deficit in silver supply. In other words, silver demand, particularly from the industrial sector, continues to exceed available supply, creating upward pressure on prices. Friday's price surge pushed silver prices to their highest level in years. This created strong bullish momentum, with traders and other investors entering the market, accelerating the price rise.

In India, silver imports have increased again as investment and industrial demand hit record levels. Global silver mine production only increased slightly, around 0.9% year-on-year, while industrial demand reached record levels. Although recycling has increased, it is not enough to cover the supply deficit.

The market currently still expects the Fed to consider cutting interest rates if economic data weakens or inflation falls. A weaker USD also has a negative correlation with silver. A weaker USD makes silver cheaper in other markets and attracts global buyers. However, expectations of further interest rate cuts will depend on US economic data. A strong economy may lead the Fed to delay interest rate cuts and support a stronger USD, which could lower silver prices.

The risk of a correction is also a concern. After a significant increase, profit-taking could trigger a price decline. A correction from a resistance level or a breach of key support could trigger selling pressure. High volatility could exacerbate negative volatility.

If the US economy remains strong, investors may prefer yield-based assets over safe-haven assets. Another bearish risk is a slowdown in industrial demand or a global economic slowdown.

Silver is currently experiencing positive momentum, supported by fundamentals and a strong supply and demand deficit in the industry. Expectations that the Fed will ease policy also add to the upward momentum. However, focusing on US economic data is now crucial. Any positive surprises in inflation, employment, or economic growth could strengthen the USD and put pressure on silver.

GBP/USD rebounds after three consecutive days of decline

The British pound and US dollar pair recovered on Monday, September 22nd, after three consecutive days of bearish candlesticks. Yesterday, GBP/USD drew a bullish candlestick with a small shadow at the bottom. The price formed a high of 1.35201, a low of 1.34530, and a close of 1.35135 on FXOpen's platform during Monday's session, as illustrated by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.18% to 97.47, providing a boost to most currencies.

Fundamental analysis of the GBP/USD pair will focus on the relative strength of the GBP versus the USD, considering factors such as central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions, global market risk sentiment, and the economic data release schedule.

In its monetary policy statement last week, on September 18th, the Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates at 4%. This decision was made because inflation remained high at 3.8%, far above the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE appears undecided about lowering interest rates despite a slowdown in the labor market.

UK annual inflation remains at 3.8%. In the labor market, the latest report shows the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, its highest level in four years. However, wage growth remains strong at 4.8%. This situation creates a dilemma for the BoE: a labor market slowdown is prompting interest rate cuts, but persistently strong wages are keeping inflation high. Meanwhile, UK GDP grew at 0.3%, indicating a resilient economy.

Higher interest rates support the GBP, but a weakening labor market could limit GBP gains, which are likely to be cautiously bullish.

The Fed's monetary policy. The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, its first rate cut since 2025, to support the weakening labor market, even though inflation remains above target. This more dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the US dollar. The latest US CPI report showed US inflation rose 0.4% monthly, driven by food and housing costs. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021. The Fed stated that this weakening was the primary reason for the interest rate cut. While US economic growth remains moderate, the Fed's growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly raised.

The Fed's dovish policy stance and economic data showing a slowdown, particularly in the labor market, are putting pressure on the USD. Sentiment towards the USD is likely bearish.

The divergence between the Bank of England's hawkish policies and the Fed's dovish policies has provided a clear indication of divergence. Fundamentally, this divergence should support GBP strengthening against USD.

Regardless of the risk factors involved, today, traders should be on the lookout for important economic news releases that could move the market. The UK will release inflation data, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), or retail sales. Meanwhile, the US will release housing data, the consumer confidence index, or speeches by Fed officials.

If the UK data release is stronger than expected, the GBP could strengthen, potentially leading to a rise in the GBPUSD pair. Conversely, if the US data is stronger than expected, the USD could strengthen, leading to a fall in the GBPUSD pair.

WTI oil prices rebounded on Tuesday

During the trading session on Tuesday, September 24th, WTI oil prices formed a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices briefly fell to a low of $ 61.58 but eventually rebounded to reach a high of $ 63.71. Yesterday, WTI oil prices reached a high of 63.71, a low of 61.71, and a close of 63.53 on FXOpen's platform.

Recent developments in fundamental oil news are likely to increase global supply. The Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdish Regional Government agreed to reopen an oil pipeline through Turkey, which will restore approximately 230,000 barrels per day, which had been suspended since March 2023. OPEC+ recently began easing voluntary production cuts.

There are concerns that demand will weaken, particularly from the US, due to rising diesel stocks and other weak demand indicators. Meanwhile, US oil and refined product stocks have been reported to rise in several reports, which could fuel concerns about a production surplus. The IEA warned that global supply would grow faster than demand, which could push supply into the second half of 2025 and into 2026. In its outlook, the IEA estimated that oil prices could average out at around $45-$60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the trend of supply exceeding demand continues.

The potential escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union, as well as the imposition of US tariffs on certain countries, could hamper global economic growth and ultimately depress oil demand. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a significant geopolitical risk. This war could trigger disruptions to Russian oil shipments, which could disrupt global supply and push prices up. Instability in the Middle East also remains a risk that could disrupt supply.

Although the Fed has cut interest rates, its impact on oil prices appears to be less significant than the abundant supply and concerns about weakening demand.

Today's price movement projection is expected to be driven by negative sentiment from abundant supply data and concerns about weakening global demand. If US economic data continues to show signs of slowing, oil prices could potentially continue their decline. Key levels for XTI/USD price movement are estimated to be in the range of $64.62 - $61.20, which could potentially serve as resistance and support levels today.

Positive oil sentiment can stem from geopolitical factors, such as escalating war tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could suddenly create positive sentiment and push prices up. Furthermore, a report showing an unexpected decline in US oil inventories could also trigger upward price movements, with another resistance level around $67.

Overall, market sentiment today is expected to lean toward a decline. However, price movements can be highly sensitive to the latest economic news and geopolitical risk developments. Traders should be aware of these risks and remain vigilant about the latest economic data releases and geopolitical developments throughout the day.

USD/CHF Recovers Ahead of SNB Interest Rate Decision

The US dollar accelerated its recovery against the Swiss franc on Wednesday, reaching a high of 0.79575. Moderate risk-off sentiment boosted the US dollar overall, while the CHF remained on the defensive ahead of today's SNB monetary policy decision. The USD/CHF price movement on Wednesday formed a bullish candle with a long body and a small shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.79575, a low of 0.79085, and a close of 0.79491 on FXOpen's platform. This rise represents a recovery from the previous two-day decline from Monday to Tuesday.

In the US, the Census Bureau report showed an increase in new home sales, supporting the USD. In other news, the EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 0.6 million, which is significantly lower than the market's expectations of 0.8 million. This data also supported the strengthening of the USD, as crude oil inventories are a key indicator of supply-demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

The movement of USDCHF today, September 25, will likely be influenced by several key economic agendas, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision, and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, US GDP and unemployment claims.

The SNB will release its interest rate decision today. The market anticipates the SNB to maintain interest rates at 0%. However, the statement accompanying the decision will be the focus of attention. If the SNB expresses a dovish outlook or even cuts interest rates, this could weaken the CHF, which in turn could push the USDCHF pair higher. Conversely, a hawkish statement would strengthen the CHF and push the USDCHF pair lower.

The Fed Chairman's statement the previous day demonstrated the Fed's cautious stance. This statement triggered profit-taking in the US stock market and caused the US dollar to strengthen. The Fed's cautious stance tends to support the US dollar compared to other currencies.

The CHF is considered a safe-haven currency, a safe haven during times of global uncertainty. Investors will tend to shift to the CHF, which could cause the CHF to strengthen and the USDCHF to decline. However, the Fed's cautious stance, as expressed by Powell, tends to support the US dollar, which could push the USDCHF pair higher.

These mixed conditions predict potential volatility for the USDCHF price. The impact of the SNB decision will be a major focus today.

USDCHF will likely hover around key levels ahead of the SNB announcement. A bearish trend is likely, with a target of 0.78980 - 078720, based on the assumption that the Swiss Franc could strengthen. Given the high potential for volatility, strict risk management remains a key focus. Waiting for confirmation of the price direction after major news releases is a prudent strategy.

NZD/USD Breaks Key 0.58000 Level, Plunges Further After Breakout

The New Zealand Dollar weakened further against the US Dollar on Thursday, September 25, 2025. The NZD/USD pair fell to a low of 0.57586 after successfully breaking through the key 0.58000 level. The pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 0.58311, a low of 0.57586, and a close of 0.57664 on FXOpen's trading platform.

Disappointing fundamental data from New Zealand has pushed the NZD/USD pair lower. New Zealand GDP contracted 0.9% in the latest quarter, significantly worse than the 0.3% expected. This raised market expectations that the RBNZ would cut interest rates more aggressively going forward. These rumors appear to have influenced the New Zealand Dollar's weakness, as the economic outlook weakens and the market begins to pay the price for additional interest rate cuts.

The strengthening of the USD also puts pressure on the NZD/USD, as the Fed remains the global benchmark. If US data shows stubborn inflation or a hawkish statement, the USD could strengthen, which in turn further pressures the NZD/USD. Market sentiment, plagued by uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the global economic crisis, has led to capital inflows into the USD as a safe-haven currency.

New Zealand relies heavily on exports to commodity markets; a global slowdown or trade tensions could worsen the NZD's performance. Fundamentally, the pressure for a weaker NZD is relatively greater than the opportunity for a stronger NZD. However, the market is volatile, and any surprises from US data could weaken the USD.

Today, the US will release the core PCE index, which could potentially impact the USD's performance. This data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in formulating monetary policy; the Fed's inflation target is 2%. High PCE data indicate inflationary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, such as maintaining high interest rates for longer or considering rate hikes. Conversely, lower PCE data indicate weak inflation and encourage the Fed to adopt a dovish stance, such as considering interest rate cuts. Generally, interest rate cuts cause the USD to weaken because lower yields make asset yields less attractive.

Today's price is expected to be within the key range of 0.5760-0.5820. Roughly, the price range could be 0.5740-0.5830, with a potential move closer to 0.5760-0.5820 due to fundamental pressure.

Bitcoin Rebounds After Plunging to the $108k Support Zone

Bitcoin has had a rough week of trading over the past week, falling 3.93% over the past seven days, according to Coinmarketcap data. Bitcoin's price dropped to a low of $108,851 on September 25, 2025. However, it attempted a rebound on September 28, reaching a high of $110,974. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is at $110,755. Its volatile movement allows the price to fluctuate at any time.

Negative factors for Bitcoin include volatility and high leverage liquidations. Many traders use leverage, and a price drop can trigger a cascade of liquidations and deepen the correction. A recent large-scale liquidation occurred after a rapid decline. Bitcoin often faces resistance in the high-price zone around $112k-$114k. If key support fails to hold at the key $104k or $10k levels, the downside resistance could be breached.

Market sentiment is also influenced by the Fed's monetary policy, US inflation data, and regulatory stances on crypto in various countries, which can trigger sudden volatility. Historically, September is often a weak month for the crypto market, known as the September effect. After a long rally, the market needs consolidation or a small correction to breathe.

The hash rate remains high or continues to increase, indicating a secure and decentralized network, which is a positive fundamental factor for investor confidence. Advances in scalability solutions and the implementation of important upgrades can increase Bitcoin's utility, and widespread layer 2 adoption will be a strong fundamental driver. The market is currently in a post-halving bull market phase, with the final halving scheduled for 2024. The reduced supply of new BTC should drive positive fundamentals due to scarcity.

The regulatory and institutional environment is also a focus in the crypto market. A key assumption is that by September 2025, Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US and other jurisdictions will have been operational for a significant period. Fund flows from institutional and retail investors through these regulated products could be the biggest driver of demand and positive fundamentals.

If central banks, particularly the Fed, have reached the end of their interest rate hike cycle and are shifting their focus to rate cuts, this tends to benefit non-interest-bearing assets such as crypto. A weakening US dollar (DXY) tends to be bullish for BTC/USD. Geopolitical risks are also a concern for investors. Geopolitical uncertainty and financial crises can support BTC depending on the maturity of investors in choosing safe-haven assets at the time.

Daily movements are likely driven by the release of US economic data, movements in the major stock indices S&P 500/NASDAQ, or breaking news related to regulations or institutions.

A bullish scenario would be if BTC were able to break through and close above the $112k-$114k resistance level. The upward momentum would open at the $120k-$124k target. Some analysts predict this range as a medium-term rebound zone. If the Fed does indeed begin to cut interest rates, foreign and institutional capital inflows would continue.

A bearish scenario would be if the critical support at $107k fails to hold, potentially leading to a deeper decline to levels like $104k or closer to $100k. Pressure from liquidations and negative policy news could accelerate the decline.

The Fear and Greed Index currently shows a level of 34, according to Coinmarketcap data. This indicates the market is already at a fear level, which could lead to a correction.

US Government Shutdown Threat Sends Gold Soaring

Gold prices have recently reached very high levels and have shown strong bullish momentum, even setting new record highs. Yesterday, September 29th, gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows, resembling a morobozu. The price formed a high of 3833, a low of 3755, and a close of 3832 on FXOpen's platform.

Geopolitical factors and fiscal risks are the main drivers of gold price movements. The threat of a US government shutdown is a key rumor driving the market. September 30, 2025, is the deadline for the US Congress to pass the 2025 fiscal year budget. If a bipartisan agreement is not reached, the US government will face a shutdown starting October 1st. The impact of political and fiscal uncertainty in the world's largest economy has historically increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The risk of a shutdown is a very significant fundamental driver at this time, providing strong support for gold prices.

Another fundamental factor, the new tariff war announced by the US on imported branded drugs and heavy trucks, has fueled global trade tensions. The impact of these tensions created economic uncertainty, which prompted investors to turn to gold.

Recent US inflation data, such as the PCE index, moved in line with expectations, with annual inflation at 2.7% in August 2025, maintaining speculation that the Fed will continue its monetary policy easing cycle with interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates support gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Dovish sentiment from several Fed officials, such as support for interest rate cuts, also reinforces these expectations.

Most analysts have recently noted a sell-off in the US dollar as expectations for interest rate cuts increase. The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar means that a weaker USD makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus increasing demand and prices.

Gold demand from global central banks, particularly from Russia and China, remains at high levels. This indicates strong long-term structural support for gold prices.

US economic data showed better-than-expected GDP growth, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment, demonstrating the resilience of the US economy. This data should have pressured gold prices, but currently, the bullish forces of fiscal risk factors and expectations of a Fed rate cut appear to be dominating.

Today's gold outlook could depend heavily on developments in two key issues: the risk of a US government shutdown and market sentiment toward Fed policy. News developments regarding US budget negotiations in Congress will be the biggest price driver. Any negative news related to the shutdown tends to push gold prices higher.

Possible short-term resistance for gold is in the 3840-3850 range, and possible short-term support is estimated at 3780-3783, with strong support at 3760-3758. A breakout of this level would test the next floor, signaling a significant weakening of bullish momentum.