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The Swamp

  • #124,921
  • Edited 4:25am Sep 22, 2025 4:01am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Closing this next h above 1761 gives the bullish structure the day back to bulls. The quarter month and week are bullish. Along with the larger indicators. 1736 has not been taken sustained. The next will be a 12h close. Bears want to be below 1736... It should be choppy.. But atm not closing below 1760 is not good for bears..It looks like 1699.8 will come if not. All to me looks bullish, unless 1736 is taken, and 1556 before the month closes.
Bullish structure
The bulls took back the day
1847 looks like the next test
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  • #124,922
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:18am Sep 22, 2025 4:18am
Quoting gatorinla
Bears had to pull a rabbit out their ass soon.. The risk without taken and hold below 1736 favored the bulls. Being back above 1800 is a killer... There is still some time in this quarter. Its looking bad for shorts.. Minimal bears need to remain below 1799, and have to take a long wick red candle below 1736.. some Light T 1770 74ish {image}
Yea thinking the same here. 1770 1800 next and if bull closed above 1800 bear is dead. We will liky to set new high.

my initial thought is bear will attempt to break below 1736 today to trigger fast track however that failed

7 days until month end (including today and we are about 200 pips above 1557. So still enough time to achieve this if bear scenario plays out.

for now no bear yet
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,923
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:22am Sep 22, 2025 4:22am
I fu.. anything labeled 1799 is wrong.. I need to redo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,924
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:35am Sep 22, 2025 4:35am
Quoting gatorinla
I fu.. anything labeled 1799 is wrong.. I need to redo
1847 or about 48 pips higher. .1799.8 could have some memory.. Unless things change such as dropping back below 1736, its still bullish.. Atm the support at 1755 may push it to adr, and even 1847. Its bullish, but its at the quarter end. If bears are going to make a push for 1556. It will be noticeable. Bears were rejected and injected from below 1736 on this 12h close. If bears get serious, a long red candle would show up closing below 1736, to start. 1556 is larger support than 1736. A long red candle below 1556 is another leg. Bears got reject atm. The risk to reward is/was better long 1736 earlier.. But now its away.. The risk is less favorable now to long than it was 30 pips lower ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,925
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:51am Sep 22, 2025 4:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1847 or about 48 pips higher. .1799.8 could have some memory.. Unless things change such as dropping back below 1736, its still bullish.. Atm the support at 1755 may push it to adr, and even 1847. Its bullish, but its at the quarter end. If bears are going to make a push for 1556. It will be noticeable. Bears were rejected and injected from below 1736 on this 12h close. If bears get serious, a long red candle would show up closing below 1736, to start. 1556 is larger support than 1736. A long red candle below 1556 is another leg. Bears got...
yea indeed i closed my long after hourly closed below 1736 now its kinda of stuck in the middle. My overall trend is bullish unless we break below 1730-1720 level.
for now it appeared to be previous resistance level has turned into support. 1730-40 area capped the bull for a long time back in Aug

if bear is here we should get something like late July
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,926
  • Sep 22, 2025 6:17am Sep 22, 2025 6:17am
for bear case we need to get back below 1.175 asap
S did hold at 1.172 area so until we break that 1.16 stil far.
busy today but will be back
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,927
  • Sep 22, 2025 6:43am Sep 22, 2025 6:43am
Long from 1720's targeting 1.1900. Hoping to sell that area this week.
  • #124,928
  • Sep 22, 2025 7:05am Sep 22, 2025 7:05am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea indeed i closed my long after hourly closed below 1736 now its kinda of stuck in the middle. My overall trend is bullish unless we break below 1730-1720 level. for now it appeared to be previous resistance level has turned into support. 1730-40 area capped the bull for a long time back in Aug if bear is here we should get something like late July
6 trading days for a bear move (if its to come).. If it reached for 1847 and can take it, and 1827 with closes above both. It will still be on the bullish side of 1736. Lets say if Wednesday comes with pa not above 1847-27 sustaining. To me that would favor a test of 1736 again. If you short from 1918 last week.. 1827 is center atm pa is in the South side of 1827 and 1847.. You may wanna lock in some profit.. The trend id up. The structure is up. Most larger indicators are up. It may need to run to 1847-27 even it it was going to take 1736 later. It may stanate somewhere in the 1736/27/47 area.. A rejection from 1736 favore 1827/47 with indicators and trend. It can go even higher.
To if you wanted to short.. I would wait for those, or a run back below 1736.. and it was acting like R.. It may need to rise the break support with momentum.. As it stands.. this looks bullish
A possible scalp short at 1792, if the 1h can't close above 1792.. If it closes above its voided.. The 4h 1864. If theses can drop it below 1736.. Its just another test of 36. Its against written above
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,929
  • Sep 22, 2025 7:25am Sep 22, 2025 7:25am
I may try a short on a sign 1792ish tp 1757.. if there looks to be enough time before LC
Some support 1755
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,930
  • Sep 22, 2025 7:29am Sep 22, 2025 7:29am
Quoting charlienoble
Long from 1720's targeting 1.1900. Hoping to sell that area this week.
you think we can get this high?
  • #124,931
  • Sep 22, 2025 7:37am Sep 22, 2025 7:37am
Quoting Chicago-Greg
{quote} you think we can get this high?
Not sure, but the trades are covered. I'm in no risk. Now is what is often the hardest part of trading for me. Patience. If it gets to the 1850's we may see a spike up on news. For now just waiting to see what price does.
  • #124,932
  • Sep 22, 2025 7:54am Sep 22, 2025 7:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6 trading days for a bear move (if its to come).. If it reached for 1847 and can take it, and 1827 with closes above both. It will still be on the bullish side of 1736. Lets say if Wednesday comes with pa not above 1847-27 sustaining. To me that would favor a test of 1736 again. If you short from 1918 last week.. 1827 is center atm pa is in the South side of 1827 and 1847.. You may wanna lock in some profit.. The trend id up. The structure is up. Most larger indicators are up. It may need to run to 1847-27 even it it was going to take 1736...
yes Gator, its not on the bear side now. My indicators are back to bulls as the trendline is defended

i didnt get the position to go long
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,933
  • Sep 22, 2025 8:02am Sep 22, 2025 8:02am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes Gator, its not on the bear side now. My indicators are back to bulls as the trendline is defended i didnt get the position to go long
Just like 1736 rejection.. so was 1918.. 1827 is in the middle of the 2. There may be some balance there. between those is 1781/82... so far pa is struggling here
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,934
  • Sep 22, 2025 8:22am Sep 22, 2025 8:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just like 1736 rejection.. so was 1918.. 1827 is in the middle of the 2. There may be some balance there. between those is 1781/82... so far pa is struggling here
while key support holds i have to take my bear hat off for now and believe the move late last week was just profit taking and testing previous resistance level which today we confirmed it has turned into support. we have done the same last Monday at 1715-20 level before the rise.
unless we can go back below 1736 i have to think that bull trend will continues for now. Fundi wise may support that too while fed is cutting rates and ECB is not.
Sadly bear failed to impress once again
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,935
  • Sep 22, 2025 8:34am Sep 22, 2025 8:34am
Commander’s Market Zones
EUR/USD Confluence Power Zones & Pivots – 22 Sep 2025

**Resistance**
1.1782 – 1.1789 → Daily R1 + Fib 23.6 + Weekly confluence
1.1822 – 1.1829 → Monthly R1 / supply cap
1.1868 – 1.1875 → Weekly R1 / fib cluster
1.1902 – 1.1909 → Historic high pocket
1.1942 – 1.1949 → Multi-year resistance cap
1.1973 – 1.1980 → Fib extension / long-term zone
**Support**
1.1710 – 1.1717 → Daily S1 + prior day’s low
.1690 – 1.1697 → Daily S2 + fib cluster
1.1651 – 1.1658 → Daily S3 / historical demand
1.1603 – 1.1610 → Monthly pivot pocket
1.1565 – 1.1572 → Weekly S2 / extension
1.1525 – 1.1532 → Deep flush liquidity zone

Live chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/lrX64wlF/
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,936
  • Sep 22, 2025 9:14am Sep 22, 2025 9:14am
Commander’s Market Log – EUR/USD Month-End Analysis (Sep 2025)
Daily & Intraday Bias
- Today’s candle is on track to close green (long-bodied if above 1.1770).
- Key magnets ahead:
• 1.1792–1.1795 → Weekly Pivot + resistance zone
• 1.1821–1.1829 → Monthly R1
• 1.1845 → September high
- Holding above 1.1765 EMA + 1.1745 SMA keeps bulls in control.
Weekly Chart Outlook
- MACD: Trending higher, histogram turning positive = bullish continuation bias.
- RSI: Mid-60s, not overbought → room to run before exhaustion.
- Structure: Higher lows intact since July, breakout mode still valid.
Monthly Path Projection
1. Base Support Zone:
• 1.1710–1.1725 (Daily S1 + prior lows) → month’s defense line.
2. Upside Targets:
• 1.1792–1.1795 → first cap, likely tested this week
• 1.1845 → September high → breakout test
• 1.2000 → psychological + fib extension target if 1.1845 clears
3. Risk Scenario (low probability):
• Failure to hold 1.1710 → dip toward 1.1690/1.1650
• Would delay 1.20 run, but not cancel bullish bias.
Commander’s Projection
- Today: Green daily close, likely above 1.1780
- This week: Push toward 1.1792–1.1845
- Month-End: High probability to test 1.20, provided 1.1710 support holds
https://djemkumar.com/
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,937
  • Sep 22, 2025 11:57am Sep 22, 2025 11:57am
Quoting gatorinla
I may try a short on a sign 1792ish tp 1757.. if there looks to be enough time before LC Some support 1755 {image}
The R at 1792 may be there.. but the target would of moved to 1770.. it less attractive the 1755/57 was
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,938
  • Sep 22, 2025 12:26pm Sep 22, 2025 12:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The R at 1792 may be there.. but the target would of moved to 1770.. it less attractive the 1755/57 was
1806 could be better and after if it dropped below, without closing the 1h above 1792. It has a new shot at 1770. If anything looks bearish in that 1792/1812 area it may be worth a look. .. It may need to touch 1806
1792 Has some R value.. If it would a little higher it may pick up some larger players to force it down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,939
  • Sep 22, 2025 12:35pm Sep 22, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1806 could be better and after if it dropped below, without closing the 1h above 1792. It has a new shot at 1770. If anything looks bearish in that 1792/1812 area it may be worth a look. .. It may need to touch 1806 1792 Has some R value.. If it would a little higher it may pick up some larger players to force it down.
PA is bullish to me.. Il hell bent on shorting 1706/07 checks some X and O. Getting back below 1792 with closes below would help some. You want a rejection wick
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  • #124,940
  • Sep 22, 2025 12:51pm Sep 22, 2025 12:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA is bullish to me.. Il hell bent on shorting 1706/07 checks some X and O. Getting back below 1792 with closes below would help some. You want a rejection wick {image}
Lets add this.. Its not just 1792.. Bears want this back below 1784..If the bulls are unable to sustain this.. During the Asian session It may change to 1788. Bulls want to remain sustained above these. I think it's bullish,, I will pull that thought if bull can't remain above
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