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  • #17,021
  • Sep 19, 2025 10:58am Sep 19, 2025 10:58am
EUR/USD stayed below 1.1800 and dropped to 1.1729 before bouncing due to end-of-week profit-taking on Friday. The 1.1700/10 level is currently holding, and buyers should attempt a move above 1.1800 towards 1.1848 for a test. However, if this support level fails, 1.1600 will be exposed.

The day and week have come to an end, and it was great sharing my views with this forum. The weekend is near, and I wish you a wonderful one with your friends and family!

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  • #17,022
  • Sep 19, 2025 8:32pm Sep 19, 2025 8:32pm
not good at counting waves but just thinking out loud here….. we have completed 5 waves (if we have seen the top) with extended wave 3.
then we should see abc correction next which may target somewhere between 1.14 in the next couple of weeks/months.
A wave may ends at 1557 or around 1.16.
if all goes as per plan we should see by the end of the month maybe?
1.1720-30 must give up to validate this thinking (rising trendline from Fed breaks if this is the case) and we cannot go back above 1857.
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,023
  • Sep 20, 2025 2:12am Sep 20, 2025 2:12am
The EUR/USD closed higher after reaching 1.1918, then retraced a significant portion of its upward movement to close below 1.1800. The support level at 1.1700/11 is expected to hold, which could enable buyers to push the price above 1.1800 next week and test the 1.1848 resistance level. Conversely, sellers would need to break below the 1.1700/11 support zone to drive the price lower toward 1.1600.


Have a great weekend!

Weekly volatility (range) 104 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.2000 (EU1.22b), 1.1800 (EU1.14b), 1.1920 (EU1.01b) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - EU/US PMI'S, US Durable Goods, US Consumer Spending, US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP QoQ, US PCE & University Michigan Sentiment

4H
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  • #17,024
  • Sep 20, 2025 4:36am Sep 20, 2025 4:36am
course - THERE)
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Briefly about the trend..
all orders are closed in plus. Working 2009
Optinskijj All Time Profit: $2,322
  • #17,025
  • Sep 20, 2025 10:46am Sep 20, 2025 10:46am
[ ] Opportunity 1:
Support level at 1.17410. Buy at 1.17410 or 1.17400, set stop loss at 1.17367, TP at 1.17537.

[ ] Opportunity 2:
Resistance at 1.17542.
Two options.
1. Wait for a candlestick or two to close above the zone and buy. Then set TP at 1.17700 and a 5 pip SL.

[ ] Opportunity 3:
Another point of resistance at 1.17692 (around there). Wait for a candlestick to two to close above the zone or set a buy limit at 1.17793. I can't buy below that because of the confluence. I want to make sure price is well above that zone before buying. SL at 1.17741 and TP at 1.17950.
[ ] Opportunity 4:
Resistance at 1.17950. not trading too much risk.

These are my plans for Monday. What's your input guys?
I was considering increasing SL for the sake of fluctuations.
  • #17,026
  • Edited 8:21pm Sep 20, 2025 7:07pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD closed higher after reaching 1.1918, then retraced a significant portion of its upward movement to close below 1.1800. The support level at 1.1700/11 is expected to hold, which could enable buyers to push the price above 1.1800 next week and test the 1.1848 resistance level. Conversely, sellers would need to break below the 1.1700/11 support zone to drive the price lower toward 1.1600. Have a great weekend! Weekly volatility (range) 104 pips Option expiries for Monday: 1.2000 (EU1.22b), 1.1800 (EU1.14b),...
yea still a uptrend so even if we get lower to 1600 1550 level may still be good opportunity to buy to 1.2 instead of a reversal.

Fundi wise us dollar is under pressure so I am not sure how far this bounce can go
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,027
  • Sep 21, 2025 1:26pm Sep 21, 2025 1:26pm
UK Time: First orange line 07:00 - Second orange line 14:30
EURUSD: Mon 15 Sep 25
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EURUSD: Tue 16 Sep 25
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EURUSD: Wed 17 Sep 25
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TSLA: 30-Dec-22 123.18 // 16-Jun-23 260.54 **111.51%**
  • #17,028
  • Edited 1:40pm Sep 21, 2025 1:28pm | Edited 1:40pm
UK Time: First orange line 07:00 - Second orange line 14:30
EURUSD: Thu 18 Sep 25
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EURUSD: Fri 19 Sep 25
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TSLA: 30-Dec-22 123.18 // 16-Jun-23 260.54 **111.51%**
  • #17,029
  • Sep 21, 2025 4:57pm Sep 21, 2025 4:57pm
pa opened flat, last week we did not managed to close below 1736 and usdx didnt managed to claim back 97.7.

so while 1736 holds i think we could see a bounce towards 1810. As long as 1810 holds bear may push it lower towards my next buy zone.

as of now nothing much i want to do while we are between 1736 and 1757
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,030
  • Sep 21, 2025 10:42pm Sep 21, 2025 10:42pm
The EUR/USD dropped to its Friday's low range and is attempting to bounce, but bearish pressure is preventing it. The 1.1747 resistance is currently capping any advance, while 1.1716 is offering support. A break below this support will open the way to 1.1700 and 1.1660/67 on the downside. Conversely, a break above the resistance will open the way to 1.1768 and 1.1793-1.1800 on the upside.

Have a great week!


Daily volatility (range) 48 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.2000 (EU1.22b), 1.1800 (EU1.14b), 1.1920 (EU1.01b) source: financialjuice.com

1H
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  • #17,031
  • Sep 22, 2025 12:16am Sep 22, 2025 12:16am
DXY H1
trendlines
pattern - rising wedge
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #17,032
  • Sep 22, 2025 1:10am Sep 22, 2025 1:10am
Quoting johncen
pa opened flat, last week we did not managed to close below 1736 and usdx didnt managed to claim back 97.7. so while 1736 holds i think we could see a bounce towards 1810. As long as 1810 holds bear may push it lower towards my next buy zone. as of now nothing much i want to do while we are between 1736 and 1757
eu back above 1736. Rising trendline from Feb still holding so if bull managed to defend this level we can go back up from here.
i will wait for the next hourly close to decide what to do
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,033
  • Sep 22, 2025 1:36am Sep 22, 2025 1:36am
Quoting johncen
{quote} eu back above 1736. Rising trendline from Feb still holding so if bull managed to defend this level we can go back up from here. i will wait for the next hourly close to decide what to do
Was so close to buy but it went up. I'll wait to go low again but Asian high must hold for that!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,034
  • Sep 22, 2025 1:44am Sep 22, 2025 1:44am
Quoting johncen
not good at counting waves but just thinking out loud here….. we have completed 5 waves (if we have seen the top) with extended wave 3. then we should see abc correction next which may target somewhere between 1.14 in the next couple of weeks/months. A wave may ends at 1557 or around 1.16. if all goes as per plan we should see by the end of the month maybe? 1.1720-30 must give up to validate this thinking (rising trendline from Fed breaks if this is the case) and we cannot go back above 1857. {image}
Not a bad count overall, but the last high towards your 5 cannot be counted in 5 sub-waves.

I would count it as shown in my picture

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Often times a wave 4 trades back to a former wave 4, which would increase the potential to the 1.1050 area.

Bottom line - there is still a chance it could go higher from the current level and reach the 1.2000 area or it could follow the path lower first to then go up to 1.2000 and complete the missing wave 5
  • #17,035
  • Edited 2:19am Sep 22, 2025 1:52am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Was so close to buy but it went up. I'll wait to go low again but Asian high must hold for that!
yea i didnt buy also, i will sit on my lap now. If we break above 1757 i will consider buy stop.
i still have a bear bias before month/quarter end but there are still plenty of time left and the week just started. Will be surprise if bull do nothing here
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,036
  • Sep 22, 2025 2:22am Sep 22, 2025 2:22am
EU is on a support zone and the blue trendline will work as support as well ... A three rising method candlestick pattern is being formed on H4 on that support and the 20 moving average is also working as support on daily .....
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  • #17,037
  • Sep 22, 2025 2:37am Sep 22, 2025 2:37am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
EU is on a support zone and the blue trendline will work as support as well ... A three rising method candlestick pattern is being formed on H4 on that support and the 20 moving average is also working as support on daily ..... {image}
yea until we start seeing hourly, 4h, and daily close below this level no bear confirmation
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,038
  • Sep 22, 2025 3:40am Sep 22, 2025 3:40am
20mins to a 4h close, would be a ugly one for bear if we closed above 1757
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17,039
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:23am Sep 22, 2025 4:23am
Quoting johncen
20mins to a 4h close, would be a ugly one for bear if we closed above 1757
1768 on 4H is also resistance!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #17,040
  • Sep 22, 2025 4:26am Sep 22, 2025 4:26am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 1768 on 4H is also resistance!
yea i have got a trendline near this level too if this fails then 1800 next. If 1800 failed then no bear for sure
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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