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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #1,741
  • Sep 12, 2025 9:37pm Sep 12, 2025 9:37pm
Quoting giga
Today trade DAX M15 (sell): ВЕ Total: -0,8% {image}
Why was this stopped at breakeven when it was?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,742
  • Edited 9:21am Sep 13, 2025 3:18am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Why was this stopped at breakeven when it was?
I saw that too. I am in UK and should maybe look at Dax alone. Anyway Friday was a poor day for me but we keep pluggin on for our twenty, albeit I still fight with my discipline!!
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,743
  • Sep 13, 2025 9:29am Sep 13, 2025 9:29am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Going back to SIM when you realize you're on a TILT spree is probably the first sign that you are taking a more professional approach to your trading. I'congratulate you for recognizing and taking responsibility for that which you are responsible. A big to you! {quote} M1 ORB on any of the US index futures is probably not the best place to start. I would suggest you slow things down. It looks like you're in Europe. Are you available to trade earlier, or are you trading the NYSE open because of your work/school schedule? Let me know...
hi Vid,
I really appreciate the help, these are the ideal time blocks for me to trade... I'm hoping to trade 1hr morning and 1hr afternoon/evening max ideally to fit around working from home and other commitments. Let me know your thoughts.
My plan for the last few months has been DAX trade 0700 and YM trade 1430 both 1min orbs.
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  • #1,744
  • Edited 1:20pm Sep 15, 2025 1:05pm | Edited 1:20pm
Today trade
DAX M15 (buy): ВЕ
Total: -0,8%

Today I was busy and missed the trade at 8.15 Frankfurt local time. It would have been a losing trade. But then I decided to buy, the result is breakeven
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  • #1,745
  • Sep 15, 2025 1:15pm Sep 15, 2025 1:15pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Why was this stopped at breakeven when it was?
My rule: if the price reached 150% fibo, i move the stop loss to breakeven
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  • #1,746
  • Edited 7:12am Sep 16, 2025 5:18am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting giga
{quote} My rule: if the price reached 150% fibo, i move the stop loss to breakeven {image}
150% sounds big, but its really just 50% of the signal bar. You should be tracking that data as well to determine if moving stop to BE after such a small excursion in your favor is beneficial.

If you were scalping off a M1 or M5, then moving to BE, especially on something like the NQ, for example, is probably a good idea.

But having a quick BE on an ORB, based on my own experience of trading them, seems problematic as ORB's very often are tested before making the full measure of the ORB range in the direction of the breakout.

I may be mistaken, but the time stop you use often seems to take you out of trades that do eventually go to your target before exiting the opposite of the opening range.

At the end of this set of 20 trades you should study your stats and ask yourself if the BE rules you have are suggested by and supported by the market data, or are they you just bringing your old fears and bad habits into the system?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,747
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:18am Sep 16, 2025 9:18am
Today trade
DAX M15 (sell): ВЕ
Total: -0,8%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,748
  • Edited 11:28am Sep 16, 2025 9:36am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting giga
Today trade DAX M15 (sell): ВЕ Total: -0,8% {image}
Just FYI: one of the benefits of a fixed bar start is that it should take this trading error out of the plan. Which trading error? Moving the stop too breakeven and collecting a bunch of small losses (fees/commissions) instead of taking profits.

This is best used as a "set and forget" trading plan.

Your rules are trying to outsmart the market. But the market is having fun with you.

Trade after trade I see you taking a break even exit and then price moves to your original take profit.

I believe you said this is a prop evaluation account. You should trade your plan side by side in a sim account but make it a "set and forget" without the break even stop rules and see which has performed better at the end of 20 trades.

In my opinion, you have written your fear into your trading plan, which is diametrically opposed to the purpose of performing the fixed bar 20 trade exercise.

Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know your whole plan, but from the trades you've been posting it looks as though your break even stop rules are working against you, which, to be honest, is exactly what one should expect break even stop rules to do.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,749
  • Sep 16, 2025 10:17am Sep 16, 2025 10:17am
Quoting giga
Today trade DAX M15 (sell): ВЕ Total: -0,8% {image}
Giga - in addition to what Vidvad writes above, you could try a simple exercise in discipline. In Post 17 of the attached thread link Laura advocates a twenty trade exercise of leaving your entry price alone until it closes the other side of the 8 ema channel. You could try it or substitute for the other side of your entry bar or 50% of your ORB or "Mebob" bar. Not just you but other people should try the twenty exercise - it is not so easy when you actually try it against the right hand side of the chart.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...just-a-journal
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,750
  • Sep 16, 2025 11:03am Sep 16, 2025 11:03am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Just FYI: one of the benefits of a fixed bar start is that it should take this trading error out of the plan. Which trading error? Moving the stop too breakeven and collecting a bunch of small losses (fees/commissions) instead of taking profits. This is best used as a "set and forget" trading plan. Your rules are trying to outsmart the market. But the market is having fun with you. Trade after trade I see you taking a break even exit and then price moves to your original take profit. I believe you said this is a prop evaluation account....
I agree with Vidvad on this. I found out by running my 20 trade test with a trailing stop and didn't end up in profit. Having a fixed TP is better from what I have seen. I am now looking at the 0.618 fib.
  • #1,751
  • Edited 8:55am Sep 17, 2025 3:54am | Edited 8:55am
Today trade
DAX M15 (buy): ВЕ
Total: -0,8%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,752
  • Sep 17, 2025 5:35am Sep 17, 2025 5:35am
Quoting giga
Today trade DAX M15 (buy): ВЕ Total: -0,8% {image}
Why do you not show the time axis?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,753
  • Edited 11:30am Sep 17, 2025 10:01am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Just FYI: one of the benefits of a fixed bar start is that it should take this trading error out of the plan. Which trading error? Moving the stop too breakeven and collecting a bunch of small losses (fees/commissions) instead of taking profits. This is best used as a "set and forget" trading plan. Your rules are trying to outsmart the market. But the market is having fun with you. Trade after trade I see you taking a break even exit and then price moves to your original take profit. I believe you said this is a prop evaluation account....
My buy trades in September:
1.09.25 buy trade, the result is stop loss
8.09 25 buy trade, the result is breakeven
9.09.25 buy trade, the result is breakeven
10.09.25 buy trade, the result is breakeven
15.09.25 buy trade, the result is breakeven
17.09.25 buy trade, the result is breakeven
Without the BE I would have received 6 losses.
The market is moving sideways.
I'm very pleased with the trading system, which allowed me not to lose even in these challenging conditions. I believe my trading system is profitable (last month, for example, the profit was 8%). I believe in the reliability of the prop firm The5ers, the best on the market. I'll be making more than twenty trades, as I should get a profit of 6.5%. Thank you, Vidvad, for your helpful advice. Overall, the results with and without the BE aren't much different so far. But I'll test them later. The price needs to breathe, that's true.
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  • #1,754
  • Sep 18, 2025 3:34am Sep 18, 2025 3:34am
I believe in the system that Vidvad has given. I am convinced by the consistency and regularity that this method brings. I can enter orders without stress or thinking, I am also sure that I will never miss a single order because I know for sure the time to enter the order. Thanks Vidvad
  • #1,755
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:14am Sep 18, 2025 4:14am
Today trade
DAX M15 (buy): winner +0,9%
Total: +0,1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,756
  • Sep 19, 2025 3:44am Sep 19, 2025 3:44am
Today trade
DAX M15 (buy): BE
Total: +0,1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,757
  • Sep 20, 2025 1:42pm Sep 20, 2025 1:42pm
Moving forward with this method I am focusing on 6E and MGC, and dropping MES.

This is a profitable trading strategy using either the original rules or vidvads scalping style rules. However, the choice of instrument matters. The equity indices net returns but their choppy nature leads to a lot of back and forth in the equity curve while it slowly trends upward.

Tracking the 8:30-9:00EST bar in both eurusd and gold seems to have a stronger edge that can allow slightly faster accumulation of profits. Since I like money, this is the direction I am taking. I will generally be sitting out NFP and CPI days since those tend to blow out the range before I would be entering any positions.

That's all from me. Good luck trading out there.
  • #1,758
  • Sep 20, 2025 6:43pm Sep 20, 2025 6:43pm
Quoting PiipPool
Moving forward with this method I am focusing on 6E and MGC, and dropping MES ... the choice of instrument matters ... Tracking the 8:30-9:00EST bar in both eurusd and gold seems to have a stronger edge ... I will generally be sitting out NFP and CPI days
FOMC days when the rate announcements occur late in the day can be good days to stand down as well. Many instruments that otherwise move well tend to chop those days until the announcement at 2PM NYC.

Instrument 100% matters.

Time also matters: Selecting a fixed bar interval at or near market center opens AND fixed bar intervals that correspond to H4 closes/opens tend to offer the best opportunities for a positive edge to be identified.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,759
  • Sep 21, 2025 1:47am Sep 21, 2025 1:47am
Quoting PiipPool
Moving forward with this method I am focusing on 6E and MGC, and dropping MES. This is a profitable trading strategy using either the original rules or vidvads scalping style rules. However, the choice of instrument matters. The equity indices net returns but their choppy nature leads to a lot of back and forth in the equity curve while it slowly trends upward. Tracking the 8:30-9:00EST bar in both eurusd and gold seems to have a stronger edge that can allow slightly faster accumulation of profits. Since I like money, this is the direction I am...
Hi,
I like money too. Thanks for the informative post. I'll be testing gold. What's your stop loss? Do you set it at the extreme or is it shorter? Do you move the stop-loss to breakeven?
  • #1,760
  • Edited 3:47pm Sep 21, 2025 6:07am | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting giga
{quote} I'll be testing gold. What's your stop loss? Do you set it at the extreme or is it shorter? Do you move the stop-loss to breakeven?
Anyone following along here in this thread should test himself or herself and then answer these questions for himself or herself based on the testing.

The purpose of the 20 trade exercise is to learn to trade in probabilities and to become unconcerned with the outcome of the current trade, and instead focus on the process of trading.

Back test, and then forward test in sim. Start with an entry criterion, a fixed rule for stop loss, and a fixed rule for take profit.

Do 20 trades, and then look at your data. If you find after that review that some sort of stop loss intervention may be beneficial, then write the new rule, change only that one characteristic of the trading plan, and forward test another 20 trades.

If one has selected a fixed bar interval with a positive edge, then, in my experience, any scheme to go to breakeven tends to negatively impact the results over a series of trades.

If you're truly scalping momentum as I often do on the NQ, BE stops make a lot of sense.

But if you are trading a proper M15 or greater fixed bar interval, breakeven stops really should not be on the table. If after 20 trades the result are negative, better to test a different fixed bar interval than to try to make the one you picked "work" by creating active stop loss management rules.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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