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The Swamp

  • #124,821
  • Sep 17, 2025 4:17pm Sep 17, 2025 4:17pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1.185 will be a tough one now imo. probably range for a few months,
I think we may test 1.177 area not sure we can break it. quite bearish if we close tmr below but 1.177 test could happen.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,822
  • Sep 17, 2025 4:32pm Sep 17, 2025 4:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know how this will end up -1727 may break the bulls back. I see some possible support 1727/41..To get there 1817 resist and 1774 breaks down
yea it can still go up from the support zones but possibly a early warning sign for the bull with that rejection candle.
will be keen to see how the week ended at
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,823
  • Edited 5:41pm Sep 17, 2025 4:45pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I think we may test 1.177 area not sure we can break it. quite bearish if we close tmr below but 1.177 test could happen.
yea 1770 area is the decision point and should be tested, then either we see a bounce here and closing the week above or we may see us breaking below and closing back near 1715-20 area.

still lots of uncertainty. Lets wait and see
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,824
  • Sep 17, 2025 7:11pm Sep 17, 2025 7:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the rate cuts are due to bad economic news. That's fluid to the world's currencies. If the u.s. buys less, others sell less. It pumped here.. It will find its equilibrium.
yes Gator, not sure how many more rate cuts ahead of us, if we seeing more and US economy tanks more, eventually will drag the dollars down further.

but if the world’s biggest market is not doing well, everyone will be impacted so everyone will start cutting rates which will limit the drop in dollars.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,825
  • Sep 17, 2025 7:25pm Sep 17, 2025 7:25pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes Gator, not sure how many more rate cuts ahead of us, if we seeing more and US economy tanks more, eventually will drag the dollars down further. but if the world’s biggest market is not doing well, everyone will be impacted so everyone will start cutting rates which will limit the drop in dollars.
2 more of 25bps this year was indicated today. Trumps boy was an outlier on the dot plot for 1.25% of cuts still to happen this year. It wont happen but come May....it could. I agree though that as the dollar falls it doesn't mean Euro picks up all the slack. Gold probably will
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,826
  • Sep 17, 2025 7:32pm Sep 17, 2025 7:32pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} 2 more of 25bps this year was indicated today. Trumps boy was an outlier on the dot plot for 1.25% of cuts still to happen this year. It wont happen but come May....it could. I agree though that as the dollar falls it doesn't mean Euro picks up all the slack. Gold probably will
yea 2 this year but there might be more to come next year if job market continues to slump.
And with Trump taking over mid-next year, weak dollars will be the main theme. So we might see last bounce of the dollars
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,827
  • Sep 17, 2025 8:03pm Sep 17, 2025 8:03pm
Tonight below 1833 sustained is bearish as a day trader. But the trend is still up.. b/o up as a day trader may be sustained above 1857
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,828
  • Sep 17, 2025 8:06pm Sep 17, 2025 8:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
Tonight below 1833 sustained is bearish as a day trader. But the trend is still up.. b/o up as a day trader may be sustained above 1857
1833 is soft.. But if cant take it. expect some retrace.. 1857 can be R as well.. Atm pa is below 1833... Possible day trade short +- 1833 ish.. Its bullish so dont hold it too long if its red
1857 if its to retrace lower may be stiffer
LC at 1849.. 1857 could be a sweet spot.. With a small s/l... Its bullishh.. A small stop is best if shorting
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,829
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:29am Sep 18, 2025 2:29am
I thought we can get close to 1774 before a bounce
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,830
  • Sep 18, 2025 3:09am Sep 18, 2025 3:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I think we may test 1.177 area not sure we can break it. quite bearish if we close tmr below but 1.177 test could happen.
to the pip and now up, bullish above 1.1850 - bears need close below 1.1810 not easy
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,831
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:46am Sep 18, 2025 4:46am
I caught this earlier.. 1724/27 may set up a long.
Still a possible short 184/57.. It bullish a breakout above 1857 sustained, can run.. But also the 1857 area can resist.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,832
  • Sep 18, 2025 5:04am Sep 18, 2025 5:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1833 is soft.. But if cant take it. expect some retrace.. 1857 can be R as well.. Atm pa is below 1833... Possible day trade short +- 1833 ish.. Its bullish so dont hold it too long if its red 1857 if its to retrace lower may be stiffer LC at 1849.. 1857 could be a sweet spot.. With a small s/l... Its bullishh.. A small stop is best if shorting
pa is back above 1833 the bear b/o point. We know the trend is up. For any fall. 1833 has to be part of it. It can also stop it.

trend up. back above 1833, can be bullish (Just not bearish, neutral in a uptrend against 1857)
The 12h closed above 1837..It may cause 1824 a stronger bounce taking 1833. A stronger bounce may take the R at 1857 out. 1833 may prevent it from getting to 1824
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,833
  • Sep 18, 2025 5:08am Sep 18, 2025 5:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa is back above 1833 the bear b/o point. We know the trend is up. For any fall. 1833 has to be part of it. It can also stop it. trend up. back above 1833, can be bullish
yes Gator bear now has a lot more to do if they want to fight back
unemployment claims later could cause a breakout
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,834
  • Sep 18, 2025 5:19am Sep 18, 2025 5:19am
I dont know if it breaks down to the 1827/24.. I have stops there. Being in a uptrend.. 1847 1857 would likely get broken. once 1833 was retaken, and closing a 12h above. It helped the bulls more than bears. On a day trade, that strong.. On a quarter run.. its irrelevant
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,835
  • Sep 18, 2025 5:44am Sep 18, 2025 5:44am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes Gator bear now has a lot more to do if they want to fight back unemployment claims later could cause a breakout
If it was just a day trade.. A long against 1824/1833 may be enough for support. This may be more about setting up next quarter. Either stay on the sideline or pick a team. The last closed q m w are up. The day is not Structure wise. The trend is up. Indicators point up. It just may be limited atm. If bears want to go lower.. -1785 sustained may be in the run, above 1833 is not in that camp atm
b/o R value at 1857, its also adr. So it may stay stuck below 1857.. possible range 1833/57 may form
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,836
  • Sep 18, 2025 5:59am Sep 18, 2025 5:59am
I will not be surprised to see this..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,837
  • Sep 18, 2025 6:22am Sep 18, 2025 6:22am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes Gator bear now has a lot more to do if they want to fight back unemployment claims later could cause a breakout
If its trying to make the next quarter bearish. Having 12h closes below 1736 could be the sign.. Also bad usd news and EU still dropping (opposite effect news, like yesterday.. It closed below the news release level ). That may mean its trying for a - 1556 close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,838
  • Sep 18, 2025 6:45am Sep 18, 2025 6:45am
Its back below 1833 and 27.. its coming for me.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,839
  • Sep 18, 2025 6:58am Sep 18, 2025 6:58am
If you want a fall. you want 1833 to resist.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,840
  • Sep 18, 2025 7:01am Sep 18, 2025 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
If you want a fall. you want 1833 to resist.
30 mins until news, may bring 1857 or back below 1800 mayb
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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