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  • #16,961
  • Sep 17, 2025 5:41pm Sep 17, 2025 5:41pm
let see if we can get to 1774
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,962
  • Sep 17, 2025 10:44pm Sep 17, 2025 10:44pm
After the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25% points due to a cooling jobs market, the EUR/USD reached 1.1918. However, the pair dropped below 1.1860 after Powell later clarified that this was not the end of the restrictive policy. It then reached a low of 1.1807 before closing down for the day. For now, it is not clear if the bearish action will continue as higher timeframes are bullish, but a strong break below 1.1790 will open the way for the next support at 1.1750. For a bigger move up to happen towards the 1.1900 and 1.1918 highs, buyers should rise above 1.1855/60.

Have a great day!


Daily volatility (range) 57 pips

Option expiries for Thursday: 1.1800 (EU2.15b), 1.1700 (EU2.1b), 1.1900 (EU1.89b) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims

1H
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  • #16,963
  • Sep 18, 2025 12:20am Sep 18, 2025 12:20am
Blue support line along with the black trend line has been broken. The blue lines represent the bearish support levels.H1 chart
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Daily flip lvl 1. 1812
H4 flip lvl 1.1795
  • #16,964
  • Sep 18, 2025 12:34am Sep 18, 2025 12:34am
Quoting Cavar
Blue support line along with the black trend line has been broken. The blue lines represent the bearish support levels.H1 chart {image} Daily flip lvl 1. 1812 H4 flip lvl 1.1795
179x reacting but i am waiting for 1774.

i think 1774 is critical
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,965
  • Sep 18, 2025 12:39am Sep 18, 2025 12:39am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 179x reacting but i am waiting for 1774. i think 1774 is critical
Yes, based on the daily chart, it indicates that we should reach that level sooner or later.
  • #16,966
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:14am Sep 18, 2025 1:14am
Should rise above 1.1800 again but not sure if its from here or lower yet. Will wait for signs even if it's clear bearish today!
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  • #16,967
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:15am Sep 18, 2025 1:15am
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downward movement is the priority for the EuroDollar pair.
all orders are closed in plus. Working 2009
Optinskijj All Time Profit: $2,322
  • #16,968
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:30am Sep 18, 2025 1:30am
Monthly we got a daily close below 1.1821 resistance and 1.1830 previous significant high. Also macd and rsi still on divergence mode so it might correct to 50 dma unless bulls get a better close.
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  • #16,969
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:37am Sep 18, 2025 1:37am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Should rise above 1.1800 again but not sure if its from here or lower yet. Will wait for signs even if it's clear bearish today!
1780 last high reacting for now i have not got my 1774
As long as no daily closed below 1715-20 i think bull will still be fine
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,970
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:49am Sep 18, 2025 1:49am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1780 last high reacting for now i have not got my 1774 As long as no daily closed below 1715-20 i think bull will still be fine
Yes still its not clear if bull continue (intraday) but seems some support is on the works at 1 hour. Still early and bearish although.
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  • #16,971
  • Sep 18, 2025 1:57am Sep 18, 2025 1:57am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yes still its not clear if bull continue (intraday) but seems some support is on the works at 1 hour. Still early and bearish although.
yea true, let the bear run for now, i didnt took the long at 1780, i didnt expect a bounce there was thinking 1790 or 1774. If we closed below 1774 we will probably back to that August ranging zone so not a good news but again lots of previous high will start acting as strong support
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,972
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:17am Sep 18, 2025 2:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea true, let the bear run for now, i didnt took the long at 1780, i didnt expect a bounce there was thinking 1790 or 1774. If we closed below 1774 we will probably back to that August ranging zone so not a good news but again lots of previous high will start acting as strong support
Agree! Today if us jobs look good 1750 is possible. Resistance is near 1845.
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  • #16,973
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:21am Sep 18, 2025 2:21am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Agree! Today if us jobs look good 1750 is possible. Resistance is near 1845.
i have cancelled my buy limit at 1774 was busy working on something so didnt pay too much attention to the pa. Two hours of doji triggers a strong bounce in early London. I remain sideline for now
1850 my key flip area too. I expect some more room down though and yes if US job data is better then it should bring some lower numbers but 1750-1774 wil be tough for bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,974
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:43am Sep 18, 2025 2:43am
that is quite a scary candle forming on 1h…..
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,975
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:45am Sep 18, 2025 2:45am
My next TP 1.18570.....
Stay green!!!
  • #16,976
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:49am Sep 18, 2025 2:49am
Quoting johncen
that is quite a scary candle forming on 1h…..
Took 20 pips couldn't believe it will move so up and exit. 1.1790 on 4H might hold now.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #16,977
  • Sep 18, 2025 3:41am Sep 18, 2025 3:41am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Took 20 pips couldn't believe it will move so up and exit. 1.1790 on 4H might hold now.
while pa in the middle i probably will do nothing, wait for 185x or if we go back to touch my 1774
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,978
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:22am Sep 18, 2025 4:22am
Usdx failed to close below 96.38 yesterday but eu looked more aggressive two days before when it took a good close above 1.1830 previous high. Now both are stacked inside the range waiting for more movement. This could be sign of a bigger correction down to 1.1700/15 or even lower from eu but if price rise above 1.1918 and dollar drop below yesterday's low then 1.2000-1.2100 should come next.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #16,979
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:40am Sep 18, 2025 4:40am
eurusd h1
trendlines

important resistance 1.1860 - if we stay below or above ...
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #16,980
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:47am Sep 18, 2025 4:47am
I am so happy we can get back to technicals

Around 1.1850, many retailers who opened long positions yesterday are now trapped in losing positions.
Unless there are any orders from large players, a sell-off will likely begin around this level.
Retailers will begin closing their longs, which will generate additional sales.
That is my plan for the afternoon..

Yet we have the UK at 12:00 with the BOE rates, which may slightly add to the volatility up or down on EURUSD
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