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The Swamp

  • #124,781
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:28pm Sep 16, 2025 3:28pm
DXY D1 on track for 95ish

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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,782
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:50pm Sep 16, 2025 3:50pm
50bps rate cut gets us there very quickly (unlikely)
25bps and a hint at 2 more cuts this year also gets us there quickly
no rate cut reverses things (highly unlikely)
25bps and no promise of anything further, data dependent etc etc (most likely), slow don in dollar fall maybe even a limited bounce, gold profit take
etc





Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,783
  • Sep 16, 2025 6:46pm Sep 16, 2025 6:46pm
Not a short recommendation.. but if it can not sustain above 1872. in a b/o. It may be a buy if it was to retrace. 1817/07 atm is where I could get lucky to long.. LC 1851 and others are in the way.. 1817 i dont bet on a fall. But ready to long it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,784
  • Sep 16, 2025 11:32pm Sep 16, 2025 11:32pm
By now Trump knows the rate cut. In the past he hasnt been able to resist getting ahead of it with a tweet. Silence may mean hes happy ...
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,785
  • Edited 12:30am Sep 17, 2025 12:13am | Edited 12:30am
EUR/USD – FOMC Day Zones (17 Sep)
Current price ~1.1850–55
Upside (Bulls)
• R5 → 1.2026 – 1.2033
• R4 → 1.1992 – 1.1999
• R3 → 1.1951 – 1.1958
• R2 → 1.1907 – 1.1914
• R1 → 1.1867 – 1.1874
Pivot (Balance Line)
• PP → 1.1830 – 1.1837
Downside (Bears)
• S1 → 1.1786 – 1.1793
• S2 → 1.1759 – 1.1766
• S3 → 1.1709 – 1.1716
• S4 → 1.1665 – 1.1672
• S5 → 1.1626 – 1.1633
DeMark Levels (Close > Open)
• Resistance → 1.1929 – 1.1936
• Support → 1.1808 – 1.1815
Live Chart - https://www.tradingview.com/x/S3awlkUe/
Commander’s Market Log – https://djemkumar.com/
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,786
  • Sep 17, 2025 12:24am Sep 17, 2025 12:24am
starting to look like a dump and pump before the number. gold down ....eu down.....or the market has the number
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,787
  • Sep 17, 2025 12:25am Sep 17, 2025 12:25am
Quoting axecap
starting to look like a dump and pump before the number. gold down ....eu down.....or the market has the number
more like profit taking before the news, rate cut has been priced in and traded lately. Some traders may prefer to stay sidelined and jump back in only after the news
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,788
  • Sep 17, 2025 12:34am Sep 17, 2025 12:34am
Quoting johncen
{quote} more like profit taking before the news, rate cut has been priced in and traded lately. Some traders may prefer to stay sidelined and jump back in only after the news
definitely 25 priced in so buy the rumour sell the news.....but the key will be in the presser. maybe Jerome wants to surprise
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,789
  • Sep 17, 2025 12:38am Sep 17, 2025 12:38am
Quoting axecap
{quote} definitely 25 priced in so buy the rumour sell the news.....but the key will be in the presser. maybe Jerome wants to surprise
indeed, and also how many members voted for 0.50% cut and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Powell will try to balance to keep Fed independence, not sure if he will indicates 3 cuts this year. 2 cuts have been on the table since earlier this year so…. Lots of uncertainty with fomc this round
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,790
  • Sep 17, 2025 12:47am Sep 17, 2025 12:47am
Quoting johncen
{quote} indeed, and also how many members voted for 0.50% cut and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Powell will try to balance to keep Fed independence, not sure if he will indicates 3 cuts this year. 2 cuts have been on the table since earlier this year so…. Lots of uncertainty with fomc this round
its going to be a doozy
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,791
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:00am Sep 17, 2025 2:00am
Quoting axecap
By now Trump knows the rate cut. In the past he hasnt been able to resist getting ahead of it with a tweet. Silence may mean hes happy ...
As soon as he shits the bed he will be up
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,792
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:06am Sep 17, 2025 2:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} As soon as he shits the bed he will be up
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,793
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:08am Sep 17, 2025 2:08am
A 5 min close above 1854, a 15 above 1864, and sustained above 1872 lines up for bulls. 30 min bull at 1826, These all still hold bullish strength, with some fresh bullish structure.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,794
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:09am Sep 17, 2025 2:09am
Quoting axecap
{quote} {image}
You aint got enough ass in that diaper
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,795
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:12am Sep 17, 2025 2:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You aint got enough ass in that diaper
there's not enough ass in the world.

he is disturbingly quiet though.....
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,796
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:47am Sep 17, 2025 2:47am
Quoting gatorinla
A 5 min close above 1854, a 15 above 1864, and sustained above 1872 lines up for bulls. 30 min bull at 1826, These all still hold bullish strength, with some fresh bullish structure.

EUR/USD – Intraday Read (Gator levels mapped to my zones)

5M → 1.1854
• On my chart, 1.1854 capped London’s early attempts (micro supply).
• A 5-minute close above shows buyers absorbed that lid → short-term bullish confirmation.
15M → 1.1864
• This is the top of the yellow zone.
• A 15-minute close above upgrades the move from noise to a valid breakout.
1.1872 → sustained
• Today’s high / supply cap.
• Holding above 1.1872 turns bias decisively bullish toward 1.1900+.
30M bull line @ 1.1826
• Gator’s “line in the sand.”
• Sits near prior demand (lower yellow box).
• While 30-minute candles hold above 1.1826, the bullish structure is intact.
• A sustained break below puts structure back to neutral / vulnerable.
Live chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/85fT4fVL/

• Bull steps = 1.1854 (5M) → 1.1864 (15M) → sustain 1.1872.
• Invalidation risk grows on 30M closes under 1.1826.
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,797
  • Sep 17, 2025 2:50am Sep 17, 2025 2:50am
back below 1.18497, looks dodgy. will be interesting to see what NY does.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,798
  • Sep 17, 2025 3:55am Sep 17, 2025 3:55am
It looks to be just breathing in a little range.. It probably won't go more than 60 below 1847 on a week chart. A rate cut is expected.. Whats baked in.. I dont know. I had the structure and a trend pointing north Monday. Since more structure pointing North.. I think in the 1918 area it may need to calibrate.. 1817-1918 could be a rangy area.. with 1861 center of them
Need to be careful in the 1861/1918 area because the calendar and 1556 being a quarter number. With those 13 days it could fool us all. The latest month, week and day are bullish
If bad usd news these last few weeks, has an opposite affect on pa. It may be 1556 pulling
But as things stand.. Its all bullish to me..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,799
  • Sep 17, 2025 4:48am Sep 17, 2025 4:48am
Quoting axecap
{quote} {image}
  • #124,800
  • Sep 17, 2025 6:36am Sep 17, 2025 6:36am
Quoting gatorinla
It looks to be just breathing in a little range.. It probably won't go more than 60 below 1847 on a week chart. A rate cut is expected.. Whats baked in.. I dont know. I had the structure and a trend pointing north Monday. Since more structure pointing North.. I think in the 1918 area it may need to calibrate.. 1817-1918 could be a rangy area.. with 1861 center of them Need to be careful in the 1861/1918 area because the calendar and 1556 being a quarter number. With those 13 days it could fool us all. The latest month, week and day are bullish If...
i also have 1555 on my chart but seems unlikely at tgis stage. Who knows last Sep we see a usd bull trend after rate cut. Powell has to be hawkish though.
as of now, it is a divided Fed and everything remain pointing north. 191x and if bull is really strong we should see 1.2 in the next couple of days? Usdx to be 95 and broke a very important monthly uptrend
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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