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Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

  • #221
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:02am Sep 16, 2025 2:02am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Taking the day off up in the mountains... Can't really see your charts on my phone there Mr T.... Manana {image} {image}
Powder Mountain!! best spot in the US for snow boarding, beats any of the Colorado spots... as PM limit daily capacity (or least they did when I last went there (2019)

The shredding from James Peak, gnarly as!!
  • #222
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:40am Sep 16, 2025 2:40am
Quoting bluesteele
I slept in not trading today hopefully feeling better today and trading tomorrow Marked up some charts of Gold... The thing is we all have to find what works for us individually,,, and I can only share what I know and what works for me... But I will say this way of trading is used by many successful traders. Professional retail as well Institutional traders using some of these very same concepts both manually executed and algorithmically programmed. VWAP Initial Balance and Volume Profile market generated information derived from real orders...
Blue or Vidvad -I am new to web Ninjatrader ( I use an iMac) - In view of Blue's comments I have looked at settings for vwap and found "Chart" "session" and "Rolling" - I suspect that "Rolling is what Blue refers to unless I can find a community vwap on Ninja web that has the term "anchor" ?
The chart with the pinky ertical is the session vwap.

Blue I hope you are getting better and please do not reply until you are fully fit and bouncing about
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #223
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:51am Sep 16, 2025 2:51am
And MES on a "Rolling Vwap" whatever that is but it lines up nicely with my usual "Roadmap" ( Courtesy of Lauras thread of same name).
Not sure yet what I am doing outside of Roadmap but looks interesting so far and thanks to people helping out.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #224
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:07am Sep 16, 2025 3:07am
Finall, since I am in the UK I should stick to Dax for morning trades and MES or Nas for afternoon USA trades.
See the "Rolling" vwap" set against my usual roadmap. The "Rolling vwap" is a tighter fit to price.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #225
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:09am Sep 16, 2025 3:09am
Quoting turnip15
Finall, since I am in the UK I should stick to Dax for morning trades and MES or Nas for afternoon USA trades. See the "Rolling" vwap" set against my usual roadmap. The "Rolling vwap" is a tighter fit to price. {image}
Dax compare to ordinary "chart" selection on Ninja which may be the one Blue dislikes?

Happy to be corrected.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #226
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:26am Sep 16, 2025 3:26am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Where does Turnip say that 'all that' can beat random entries and expected outcomes? Reading his post he uses Lauras Roadmap which he likes, he's chucked on VWAP, admits it's new to him, makes no claims, says the chart is in hindsight but is intrigued enough to investigate further. In the mean time why don't you do the donkey work and provide the quantifiable statistics that demonstrates that what he's doing is in no way better than a random entry!
The fact that he claims to be a "quant" yet starts with 1:1 as his minimum tells us all we need to know. Almost every institutional quant I've heard or read (real quants, not wannabe social media trading influencers) whose algo's are day trading will tell you that 1:1 is pretty near a MAX, and most quants are running a reward to risk between 60% and somewhere less than 100% of risk. His posts to this thread are simply internet versions of "fist pumps" meant to draw swoons from followers.

Great post in support of what Turnip is sharing, moodybot. I missed it yesterday. Great post!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #227
  • Sep 16, 2025 4:43am Sep 16, 2025 4:43am
Quoting vidvad
Almost every institutional quant I've heard or read (real quants, not wannabe social media trading influencers) whose algo's are day trading will tell you that 1:1 is pretty near a MAX, and most quants are running a reward to risk between 60% and somewhere less than 100% of risk.

That absolutely matches the figures I've been told by the people I know who work in the industry (only two of them, admittedly but both said the same things).

One - who has a particular interest in such subjects and has done quite a lot of statistics-gathering and analysis - said that an R of around 0.7 to 0.75 is almost universally considered "normal," and that wide variances from that kind of figure are few and far-between, with 1.0 being regarded as the maximum, exactly as you've mentioned.

But for some reason, it sometimes seems that many people in forums really don't like hearing this(?!).
Victoria Chenevix (philosophy student, mathematical logician, MES trader)
  • #228
  • Edited 7:24am Sep 16, 2025 6:49am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting Victoria.C
{quote} That absolutely matches the figures I've been told by the people I know who work in the industry (only two of them, admittedly but both said the same things). One - who has a particular interest in such subjects and has done quite a lot of statistics-gathering and analysis - said that an R of around 0.7 to 0.75 is almost universally considered "normal," and that wide variances from that kind of figure are few and far-between, with 1.0 being regarded as the maximum, exactly as you've mentioned. But for some reason, it sometimes seems that...
My personal opinion, after years of live trading, notion that small R:R TPs will make a profitable trader is absolutely incorrect. At the point of, at R:R 0.7, 0.75 the outcome of the trade is still random. Why not see if you can use smart MM and continue with the trade, exiting not at predetermine levels but at the level that PA will tell you it is stalling and may not continue any further. One have to put allot of years of statistical analysis to realize if PA is stalling, but MM is the most important part of trading, not the entry and/or exit.

The only people who benefit from traders taking quick exits are brokers, the more trading the marrier for them.
  • #229
  • Sep 16, 2025 8:08am Sep 16, 2025 8:08am
Initial Balance Oil 9-10am NYT

No trading today again...not feeling great and chose to sleep in

SO a few charts at least with great example of Fading Value area highs Lows
which is the main setup for a balanced market...

First Q....is always,,,are we balanced or Imbalance.. We then know which setup to look for,

Cheers

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #230
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:15am Sep 16, 2025 9:15am
Been watching crude here this morning ..off and on in between feeding the wildlife outside..

A++ setups 1
A+ setups 2

All off the initial balance, weekly VWAP 1SD and VWAP anchored to the 9:00 a.m. open

But one needs to know exactly what there setup is... And execute without hesitation.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #231
  • Sep 16, 2025 11:27am Sep 16, 2025 11:27am
My top three futures markets that I trade..
Gold
Oil
ES

I use the exact same process no matter what the market is.

Each of the above three markets all have different opening times and thus initial balances.
Gold 8:20 to 9:20
Oil 9:00 to 10:00
ES 9:30 to 10:30

Just my way of organizing what I focus on so as not to dilute my focus.

I think most traders should solely.. excuse me I think newer traders or those struggling.. should only focus on one market. I spent many many years chasing movement on all sorts of markets.. it just doesn't work.

It's a beautiful day!
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #232
  • Edited 12:08pm Sep 16, 2025 11:47am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting bluesteele
My top three futures markets that I trade.. Gold Oil ES I use the exact same process no matter what the market is. Each of the above three markets all have different opening times and thus initial balances. Gold 8:20 to 9:20 Oil 9:00 to 10:00 ES 9:30 to 10:30 Just my way of organizing what I focus on so as not to dilute my focus. I think most traders should solely.. excuse me I think newer traders or those struggling.. should only focus on one market. I spent many many years chasing movement on all sorts of markets.. it just doesn't work. It's a...
I agree, I have been trading only Dow Futures for the last 5 years, got great feel for it, why trade anything else? if one wants more excitement, just raise the position(s) size on your instrument, that should do it.
  • #233
  • Sep 16, 2025 8:02pm Sep 16, 2025 8:02pm
Not entirely sure what other confluences we had or if the plotting is spot on, but price is reacting to the levels with precision. can you give some light on this gold setups @bluesteele thank you
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  • #234
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:42pm Sep 16, 2025 9:42pm
Quoting dhruvchaddha
Not entirely sure what other confluences we had or if the plotting is spot on, but price is reacting to the levels with precision. can you give some light on this gold setups @bluesteele thank you {image}
Yep Glad to....

Several confluences in those areas... all related to fair value

Where price ran up against the Open...is also the IB high(VAH) for the initial 1hour distribuition.
As well that IBH where price rolled over on the Trendline..is the 1SD(VAH) for the Weekly VWAP

The first grey box is 0.5X of the IB a simple IB range extension. More importantly there is significant
orders placed there (volume) from Monday....reflecting in the POC of the VOL PRO...as well as
VWAP anchored to Mon NY Open. There are 4 confluences at this area..

And the same with the last box... Volume volume volume...Representing a Balanced market

Just like the diagram... Price went into discovery/Imbalance yesterday in NY
and gone relatively sideways since then.... Balanced...

When a market is Balanced I look to fade VAH and VAL great chart example.

Let the charts explain the rest

CHeers

Went a bit overboard with chart examples...perhaps one of them may click for someone

But simple peel back the onion,,these levels are nothing but price reacting to the volume and size
of orders at those areas... No dominant sellers or buyers....tomorrow shall change that if i were to guess
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #235
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:52pm Sep 16, 2025 9:52pm
Anyways took better part of last week off and went out of town...got the flu
and been battling that...whilst being notified of a hospital booking for some procedures
Tues 23rd,,which will take me out for at least 3 days next week perhaps much more..
Its a wait and see what happens...and just got notified today that....

My best friend, My Papa in Mexico passed. So with all that said...Im stepping away
from any active trading for awhile... Will reply when im up to it ..and it helps
keep my mind occupied at least..but no trades until my heads straight.

Lifes short dont be miserable...do what you love

Cheers
Blue
signing off for a spell,,i think
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #236
  • Sep 16, 2025 10:51pm Sep 16, 2025 10:51pm
Quoting bluesteele
Anyways took better part of last week off and went out of town...got the flu and been battling that...whilst being notified of a hospital booking for some procedures Tues 23rd,,which will take me out for at least 3 days next week perhaps much more.. Its a wait and see what happens...and just got notified today that.... My best friend, My Papa in Mexico passed. So with all that said...Im stepping away from any active trading for awhile... Will reply when im up to it ..and it helps keep my mind occupied at least..but no trades until my heads straight....
Sorry to hear about your Papa mate.

Life is short, No 1 priority is family and health. When we’re young we take everything for granted, as we grow older we realise how tenuous life can be.

Look after yourself, hope all goes well with your procedures.

Andy.
  • #237
  • Sep 17, 2025 1:01am Sep 17, 2025 1:01am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Sorry to hear about your Papa mate. Life is short, No 1 priority is family and health. When we’re young we take everything for granted, as we grow older we realise how tenuous life can be. Look after yourself, hope all goes well with your procedures. Andy.
That is so true Moody.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #238
  • Sep 17, 2025 1:01am Sep 17, 2025 1:01am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Yep Glad to.... Several confluences in those areas... all related to fair value Where price ran up against the Open...is also the IB high(VAH) for the initial 1hour distribuition. As well that IBH where price rolled over on the Trendline..is the 1SD(VAH) for the Weekly VWAP The first grey box is 0.5X of the IB a simple IB range extension. More importantly there is significant orders placed there (volume) from Monday....reflecting in the POC of the VOL PRO...as well as VWAP anchored to Mon NY Open. There are 4 confluences at this area.. And...
I’m really grateful you took the time to explain everything so thoroughly — must have taken you more than an hour. Thanks for the detailed breakdown; I’m still digesting all the information. One more question: when price moves from discovery into the fair value area, we see multiple reference points — VWAP (day or weekly), IB high/low, IB mid-level, and range open/high/low. Should we focus purely on price reaction at each level, or is it more about looking for trades where the strongest confluence lines up?
  • #239
  • Sep 17, 2025 1:03am Sep 17, 2025 1:03am
Quoting bluesteele
Anyways took better part of last week off and went out of town...got the flu and been battling that...whilst being notified of a hospital booking for some procedures Tues 23rd,,which will take me out for at least 3 days next week perhaps much more.. Its a wait and see what happens...and just got notified today that.... My best friend, My Papa in Mexico passed. So with all that said...Im stepping away from any active trading for awhile... Will reply when im up to it ..and it helps keep my mind occupied at least..but no trades until my heads straight....
sorry to hear all that, Blue Sending you strength during this tough time. Take all the time you need — health and family always come first. We’ll be here whenever you feel ready to return. Stay strong, brother
  • #240
  • Sep 17, 2025 1:07am Sep 17, 2025 1:07am
Quoting bluesteele
Anyways took better part of last week off and went out of town...got the flu and been battling that...whilst being notified of a hospital booking for some procedures Tues 23rd,,which will take me out for at least 3 days next week perhaps much more.. Its a wait and see what happens...and just got notified today that.... My best friend, My Papa in Mexico passed. So with all that said...Im stepping away from any active trading for awhile... Will reply when im up to it ..and it helps keep my mind occupied at least..but no trades until my heads straight....
I think I am even older than you Kevin But that last sentence is so true.
What Moody wrote is also one of life's truism's. So take a well earned break and see you soon. Take care.
Health and family first.
T
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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