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  • #16,901
  • Sep 16, 2025 4:15am Sep 16, 2025 4:15am
Quoting johncen
I guess we can say bye to bear for a while if retail sales figure later turns out bad 1820 1830 next
We have a RETAIL SALE this afternoon, so bears might come back!!!
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  • #16,902
  • Sep 16, 2025 4:29am Sep 16, 2025 4:29am
Now a 2-hour break from trading
The price will probably move up and down in the range until pre-market open,
Then at 13:30, an important news release, which will definitely add to the volatility!
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  • #16,903
  • Sep 16, 2025 4:51am Sep 16, 2025 4:51am
We reached the top of the channel now.
of course we can always form a steeper channel if bull wants
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,904
  • Sep 16, 2025 4:56am Sep 16, 2025 4:56am
1821/30 must keep price action until news at least
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  • #16,905
  • Sep 16, 2025 5:45am Sep 16, 2025 5:45am
Core Retail Sales – EUR/USD Scenarios in less than 2 hours

+0.5% (well above forecast) Strong consumer → USD strength strong SELL 1.1720 – 1.1700 ~30% probability
+0.3% (in line with forecast) Neutral, no surprise NEUTRAL / range-bound BUY or SELL 1.1750 – 1.1820 ~25% probability
+0.2% (slightly below forecast) Mild consumer weakness a little BUY 1.1810 – 1.1820 ~20% probability
0.0% or below !!! Strong consumer weakness → USD loses ground strong BUY 1.1830 – 1.1850 ~25% probability

Be careful with false liquidity grabs
The first move right after the release can often go in the opposite direction just to collect liquidity (stop hunts, fake spikes).

Portals & their expectations (summary)
1. FXStreet - Data may come in weaker (+0.2%) BUY (EUR/USD up, USD weaker)
2. Investing.com - Consensus +0.3%, neutral NEUTRAL, but stronger data → SELL
3. ForexFactory - Mostly consensus, watching deviations NEUTRAL, no clear bias
4. FX Empire - Expect strong data to support USD SELL (EUR/USD down)
5. ING Think - See risk of stronger data, but limited reaction. Tilt toward SELL, but cautious
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  • #16,906
  • Sep 16, 2025 7:17am Sep 16, 2025 7:17am
Strange behaviour 10-15 mins before the news release..
Someone "buys" massively all FUTURE contracts on EURUSD
It looks like an absorption before a way UP
Yet, 65 % retail traders are in SELL
We'll see in a few minutes
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  • #16,907
  • Sep 16, 2025 7:22am Sep 16, 2025 7:22am
Quoting halkins
Strange behaviour 10-15 mins before the news release.. Someone "buys" massively all FUTURE contracts on EURUSD It looks like an absorption before a way UP Yet, 65 % retail traders are in SELL We'll see in a few minutes {image}
Ready positions to be filled at 1830 then. Lets see it could be a break out too!
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  • #16,908
  • Sep 16, 2025 7:31am Sep 16, 2025 7:31am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Ready positions to be filled at 1830 then. Lets see it could be a break out too!
Not yet. 1765! Strong retail!
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  • #16,909
  • Edited 8:51am Sep 16, 2025 7:43am | Edited 8:51am
"Will he survive, lets see"
OI Trader
  • #16,910
  • Sep 16, 2025 8:44am Sep 16, 2025 8:44am
Quoting halkins
Strange behaviour 10-15 mins before the news release.. Someone "buys" massively all FUTURE contracts on EURUSD It looks like an absorption before a way UP Yet, 65 % retail traders are in SELL We'll see in a few minutes {image}
A veeeery strong Retail Sales data caused a sharp and quick spike down, with the dollar getting stronger.
However… just as EUR/USD started falling, someone or something began BUYING EVERYTHING from the market at discount levels !!!
That was strange! The whole move was absorbed within a couple of minutes…
Probably the big guys are preparing for tomorrow's FED rates

This is how I played that out.. CLOSED with 12-13 pips in profit.
I am OUT for today
Green pips everybody!
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  • #16,911
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:05am Sep 16, 2025 9:05am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Not yet. 1765! Strong retail!
Eu is not responding on news like I thought it will. But lets see at 1.1830.
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  • #16,912
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:08am Sep 16, 2025 9:08am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Eu is not responding on news like I thought it will. But lets see at 1.1830.
daily new high. It might get accelerated if we closed above.
bye bye bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,913
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:17am Sep 16, 2025 9:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} daily new high. It might get accelerated if we closed above. bye bye bear
Yes bought some times but exiting on resistance levels and only small lots. I need a better correction to go all in.

Anyway 1.200 is the final destination if 1850 breaks and stays above. Plenty of pips to be made.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #16,914
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:18am Sep 16, 2025 9:18am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Eu is not responding on news like I thought it will. But lets see at 1.1830.
Yes. Despite strong data, the big guys acquired all orders from the market at a very good price, and they will use it tomorrow.
I am just wondering how..
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  • #16,915
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:20am Sep 16, 2025 9:20am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Eu is not responding on news like I thought it will. But lets see at 1.1830.
Looks like markets are focused on tomorrow FOMC that's why markets are not reacting ... and EU is over bought right now so we might consolidate a bit or retrace lower either way .. I will look for buy opportunities unless the FOMC wouldn't change the direction of the trend
  • #16,916
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:23am Sep 16, 2025 9:23am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yes bought some times but exiting on resistance levels and only small lots. I need a better correction to go all in. Anyway 1.200 is the final destination if 1850 breaks and stays above. Plenty of pips to be made.
thought we will only move up here after fomc but it appeared market is ready for a new high! And yes once 1850 is down 1.2 is so so close
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,917
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:26am Sep 16, 2025 9:26am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Yes. Despite strong data, the big guys acquired all orders from the market at a very good price, and they will use it tomorrow. I am just wondering how..
Yeah if they absorbed all the sell orders it that price they might be very confident that USD will weaken tomorrow at FOMC news ....
  • #16,918
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:31am Sep 16, 2025 9:31am
After strong news the pair should likely pull back from highs as traders reduce their long positions, before fed. Long term this is up!
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  • #16,919
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:32am Sep 16, 2025 9:32am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
After strong news the pair should likely pull back from highs as traders reduce their long positions, before fed. Long term this is up!
Market is expecting a weaker dollar in the mid-long term
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16,920
  • Sep 16, 2025 9:35am Sep 16, 2025 9:35am
Quoting johncen
{quote} thought we will only move up here after fomc but it appeared market is ready for a new high! And yes once 1850 is down 1.2 is so so close
First I've got 1.1909 & 1.1975 as targets above 1.1851!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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