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Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

  • #201
  • Sep 14, 2025 11:51pm Sep 14, 2025 11:51pm
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} I can't tell if you're joking or psychotic. Do you have and quantifiable statistics that all that can beat random entries & expected outcomes? Ie; win rate >50% with 1R, >33% with 2R? How is Volume Weighted Average Price accurate in a decentralized CFD market? Tick volume?
Where does Turnip say that 'all that' can beat random entries and expected outcomes?

Reading his post he uses Lauras Roadmap which he likes, he's chucked on VWAP, admits it's new to him, makes no claims, says the chart is in hindsight but is intrigued enough to investigate further.

In the mean time why don't you do the donkey work and provide the quantifiable statistics that demonstrates that what he's doing is in no way better than a random entry!
  • #202
  • Sep 15, 2025 7:55am Sep 15, 2025 7:55am
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} I can't tell if you're joking or psychotic. Do you have and quantifiable statistics that all that can beat random entries & expected outcomes? Ie; win rate >50% with 1R, >33% with 2R? How is Volume Weighted Average Price accurate in a decentralized CFD market? Tick volume?
For the most part, we all grew up from trading bucket shop contracts to trading exchange listed and traded futures contracts.

Dude, you need to check your ego at the door.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #203
  • Sep 15, 2025 8:15am Sep 15, 2025 8:15am
Quoting turnip15
This morning - UK time - vwap on Dax and gold plus "Roadmap. Interesting but will get about twenty charts more and watch interaction of vwap, IB and Roadmap. Your videos etc alluded to above Kev were very,very interesting. {image}
By Roadmap you mean the Moving Average Channel, is it set at 8 EMA ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #204
  • Sep 15, 2025 9:33am Sep 15, 2025 9:33am
I slept in not trading today hopefully feeling better today and trading tomorrow

Marked up some charts of Gold...

The thing is we all have to find what works for us individually,,, and I can only share what I know
and what works for me... But I will say this way of trading is used by many successful traders.
Professional retail as well Institutional traders using some of these very same concepts both manually executed
and algorithmically programmed.

VWAP Initial Balance and Volume Profile market generated information derived from real orders and volume
that set these levels... I still find other things like MA's useful but combined with this other context.

Anyways hopefully making sense medicated up with cough syrup and other meds


Where was I going lol...hmm ah yes todays Gold,,,duh Blue

Marked up some charts of Gold.
And what a picture perfect day. The clarity of knowing exactly your setups is liberating.
There is zero guessing or hypothesizing..Its trade what you see in front of you.
And either you land on the winning side of probabilities or you dont....

What I am about to show is what I referred to in this post
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15389182

This is what makes the clock tick.

Every single day in Gold last week presented as crystal clear setups as today did.

Bunch of charts hopefully in the right order. Looks complicated perhaps but its not with some practice.
and No I dont keep all the squiggly lines on when trading...there on the sidelines

Cheers and grab a copy of that pdf I posted up...it will clarify this post(charts)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15389182

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EDIT: The same exact process works on all markets...and does not matter whether range bound or trending
Setups for Balanced/Fair Value/Range conditions and Setups for Imbalanced/Price Discovery/Trending conditions
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #205
  • Sep 15, 2025 9:48am Sep 15, 2025 9:48am
More Gold Setups...

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #206
  • Sep 15, 2025 9:50am Sep 15, 2025 9:50am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} By Roadmap you mean the Moving Average Channel, is it set at 8 EMA ?
Yes they are .
Here is the source relating to Laura who began the thread on "Roadmap."
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15375890
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #207
  • Sep 15, 2025 9:58am Sep 15, 2025 9:58am
Quoting bluesteele
Hi guys been away since Wednesday back today...and caught the flu to top my mini vacation off Will catch up on the replies tomorrow . In the meantime I highly recommend watching this Youtube short. As this encompasses a big part of what this thread is about and its very similar to how I trade...Setups and all. Chris Drysdale does a much better job of explaining.... So heres the 60sec vid as well as a couple of graphics and Im also attaching Chris's Core Setup guide PDF. I use these exact same setups every day.. Cheers https://youtube.com/shorts/R6hNpCFLL...9dhLgu2LOPhUMP...
Brilliant stuff, very helpful
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #208
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:18am Sep 15, 2025 11:18am
Interesting watching the volume on the December gold contract really ramp up into the all-time highs...

Just some observations
Yep price is not moving. Perhaps it will roll over.. might have something to do with the 3700 strike level on call options .. there is a large open interest and volume on that today.

Could be the result of some of these options being exercised.
I'm definitely not an options guy but I like to watch it for fun ....for hypothesizing lol...

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #209
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:35am Sep 15, 2025 11:35am
Tried the Dow Futures for a long break of IB and failed. Price came back inside IB box, down through the outer vwap band, down through the underside of my Roadmap and pinged off the underside of an almost straightline vwap line for a short ( the thick yellowish line) -out through lower vwap band and to the bottom of IB box.
Was I reading price correctly or was I lucky Kev ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #210
  • Sep 15, 2025 2:55pm Sep 15, 2025 2:55pm
Since I only trade CFDs and not futures, does it really make sense for me to follow IB/orderflow concepts? My VWAP and Volume Profile are based on tick volume, not real traded volume, so they’ll always be slightly different from futures levels. Just wondering if it’s worth focusing on these or if sticking to CFD-friendly Price action makes more sense
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  • #211
  • Sep 15, 2025 3:42pm Sep 15, 2025 3:42pm
Quoting dhruvchaddha
Since I only trade CFDs and not futures, does it really make sense for me to follow IB/orderflow concepts? My VWAP and Volume Profile are based on tick volume, not real traded volume, so they’ll always be slightly different from futures levels. Just wondering if it’s worth focusing on these or if sticking to CFD-friendly Price action makes more sense {image} {image}
Well your already using TV that I see...so why not just use the futures charts to get your levels from for the CFDs?

Although prices are different the charts should be very close? It's been awhile since I have compared them...but I seem to recall near identical ?

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #212
  • Sep 15, 2025 3:56pm Sep 15, 2025 3:56pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Yes they are . Here is the source relating to Laura who began the thread on "Roadmap." https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15375890
Raghee Horner was doing something similar but with 34 Ema High & Low quite a while back, if I remember.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #213
  • Sep 15, 2025 4:11pm Sep 15, 2025 4:11pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Raghee Horner was doing something similar but with 34 Ema High & Low quite a while back, if I remember.
Yes she was and still is as far as I know... I know she uses the 1hr Initial Balance for trading NY open as well.

Actually Laura/Roadmap for the idea from Raghee and tuned it to her liking..

I guess it all really works...1000 ways to peel an onion
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #214
  • Sep 15, 2025 4:13pm Sep 15, 2025 4:13pm
Quoting turnip15
Tried the Dow Futures for a long break of IB and failed. Price came back inside IB box, down through the outer vwap band, down through the underside of my Roadmap and pinged off the underside of an almost straightline vwap line for a short ( the thick yellowish line) -out through lower vwap band and to the bottom of IB box. Was I reading price correctly or was I lucky Kev ? {image}
Will take a look at your chart Turnip in a little bit..as can't see that well at the moment.

Mr Magoo
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #215
  • Sep 15, 2025 4:17pm Sep 15, 2025 4:17pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Raghee Horner was doing something similar but with 34 Ema High & Low quite a while back, if I remember.


https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-grab-candles

...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #216
  • Sep 15, 2025 4:20pm Sep 15, 2025 4:20pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Yes she was and still is as far as I know... I know she uses the 1hr Initial Balance for trading NY open as well. Actually Laura/Roadmap for the idea from Raghee and tuned it to her liking.. I guess it all really works...1000 ways to peel an onion
A more humane version of the phrase : "Many ways to skin a Cat"



Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-grab-candles ...
She's done quite a few Free Vids on YT also of her methods....
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #217
  • Sep 15, 2025 4:24pm Sep 15, 2025 4:24pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-grab-candles ...
Thanks for the link cheers

And a Raghee quote from her initial post.

There is no "one way" in trading. I am here to share what's worked for me mainly because there is some confusion and misapplication of my tools. Please be courteous to one another, we're all simply here to learn and share and after all ...rudeness is a weak person's imitation of strength.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #218
  • Sep 15, 2025 5:51pm Sep 15, 2025 5:51pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Yes she was and still is as far as I know... I know she uses the 1hr Initial Balance for trading NY open as well. Actually Laura/Roadmap for the idea from Raghee and tuned it to her liking.. I guess it all really works...1000 ways to peel an onion
I only know one or two ways to peel an onion, but I sure peel it well and I never shed a tear.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #219
  • Sep 15, 2025 9:11pm Sep 15, 2025 9:11pm
Quoting turnip15
Tried the Dow Futures for a long break of IB and failed. Price came back inside IB box, down through the outer vwap band, down through the underside of my Roadmap and pinged off the underside of an almost straightline vwap line for a short ( the thick yellowish line) -out through lower vwap band and to the bottom of IB box. Was I reading price correctly or was I lucky Kev ? {image}

Well a few things to consider Turnip... First US indices are in the rollover period..Conditions can be a bit choppy,,
Nevertheless,,,, here's where my chart is different and my reasonings.

The VWAP your displaying is what I call(TradingView) Session VWAP anchored to the 6pm NYT Globex Open.

Now VWAP is designed to work off of Volume data...Look at my chart ( I have volume toggled on)
The point is Globex for the most part is very low volume for US indices.. Commodities such as Gold and Oil
are traded much heavier in GLobex... More a Universal thing

I preface this with...Yes I will still look at Session(Globex) VWAP...but where I put weight is anchoring my VWAP to the
previous session's Open...so it encompasses the prev days data as well as Globex....more valuable volume data.

Now carying that thought a bit further...One needs to remember we are small minnows in the big Ocean
and most of us are flat by EOD..... But the big players will be carrying positions ..thus volume from prev day(s)
needs to be considered in current days trading..... I hope that all makes sense ???

So my main two goto VWAPS that I use are a weekly VWAP and Prev days..to trade the currrent day...

Now on Mondays...My Weekly VWAP indi cuts off and restarts.. So I simply anchor a VWAP from the Prev weeks Globex open...
And generally that will carry over thru to Tuesday...Its a point of observing how the market is behaving to those levels,,,,

So I anchor one VWAP to prev weeks Globex Open that will carry over thru to Tues (Generally)
and also I will anchor a VWAP to Fridays NY open to encapsulate prev days data.

Charts attached to show what I mean

The same goes for my Volume Profile...I dont want to use a Globex Vol prof for NY open....(Caveat there are times when volume
in GLobex warrants the use) mostly not tho.

So my Vol Profile is as well anchored to prev days NY open and the beginning of the week for a larger TF picture.
Again there are exceptions....which I wont get into as of yet.

Here's a few charts that hopefully explains better than my words !

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The above and below chart shows a Session VWAP that starts at 6pm Globex open and runs until 6pm next day..

But with little Globex Volume I prefer not to put much weight into it.
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Now this below chart shows me anchoring VWAP off the prev days 930 open (Volume)
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NExt chart showing Vol Profile again attached to prev day open(volume)
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And lastly I overlayed your chart onto mine and changed my charts time to UK
maybe might help I'm assuming your two horizontal lines on the chart green up top and red below
are just marking current chart views H/L
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #220
  • Sep 15, 2025 10:03pm Sep 15, 2025 10:03pm
Gold had a great setup Long today off the Open using VWAP and VOL Profile
anchored to Fridays NY open....(3rd chart)

As well larger TF perspective comes from a Weekly VWAP and a weekly Vol Profile.
Is the market Balanced or Imbalanced ?

A stellar textbook Price Discovery long trade off these Weekly Levels...

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And this First Long setup of the day off Fridays Key Levels..I picked or should I say Flu/Cold picked a good day
for me to sit out
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
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