The Swamp

No guarantee it will clear 1739. If it does sustain above 1739. It can hit adr 178x. Its Friday the week range has a big deficit miss also 1871, very unlikely.

next week we may see bigger movement and range

Yeah.. more so if it manages to stay above 1717 1699

i think we will. Probably 80-90% to me that we will sustained above. Sadly as someone expecting bear since May, i have to admit maybe not yet. We are likely to go further up first

It seems that the market is already waiting for next Wednesday!

and closes the week with a Doji. BUT

If the structure lines up with this uptrend.. I will need to favor a long. They have been opposite..

one more hour to go, 20pips above 1715 let see

Must be thd first time in the last 5-6 weeks we are having a weekly closed above 1720 level (usdx closing the week below 97.70).

to me its possibly more like a breakout but we still have 1790 1830 up above which may form a double top pattern. So I wonder how far eurusd can go above and whether we will see a buy rumours sell fact once rate cut is landed. We will need Powell to be hakwish though

Gator just checked the latest cot report. Larger players still heavily short despite with reduced positions. Wonder where their positions are and if they will allow euro to go much higher.

non commercials are still buying though

Perfect — thanks for sharing the raw CFTC COT report (Euro FX Futures, CME, Sep 9, 2025). Let me break it down for you:
Headline Numbers (in contracts of €125,000 each)

1. Non-Commercials (Speculators):
   1. Long: 258,049
   2. Short: 132,372
   3. Net: +125,677 (bullish bias)

2. Commercials (Hedgers):
   1. Long: 468,861
   2. Short: 648,508
   3. Net: –179,647 (bearish / hedging bias)

3. Non-Reportables (Small traders):
   1. Long: 100,417
   2. Short: 46,447
   3. Net: +53,970 (bullish, following specs)

What It Means

1. Specs are heavily long EUR
   → They’ve built a large net long (+125K contracts). That’s a clear bullish stance on EUR/USD.
2. Commercials are heavily short EUR
   → Classic pattern: hedgers (banks, corporates) are on the other side, betting on or hedging against EUR weakness.
3. Small traders (non-reportables) are also long
   → They usually follow momentum, not lead it. When both specs & small traders are on one side, the market can become crowded.

Positioning Context

1. The current +125K net spec long is elevated compared to average, though not the absolute historical extreme (which can exceed +150K–200K).
2. Commercials’ net short (–179K) is very large — reflecting caution (possible reasons: eurozone growth risks, Fitch downgrade on France, ECB policy limits).
3. When positioning gets stretched like this, EUR/USD can be vulnerable to sharp reversals if fundamentals disappoint.

Summary

1. Speculators (funds) → Long EUR, bullish.
2. Commercials (hedgers) → Short EUR, defensive.
3. Small traders → Long EUR, trend-following.

This setup = bullish consensus on EUR, but with contrarian risk: if U.S. data stays strong or eurozone risks flare up, the unwind of these longs could accelerate EUR/USD downside.
Do you want me to chart this COT positioning (3-year history) so you can visually see whether current longs are near “extreme” levels?
You said:
yes
ChatGPT said:
https://chatgpt.com/backend-api/estu...ca45d5da26&v=0
Here’s the visualization of EUR futures COT net speculative positioning:

1. The blue line shows net non-commercial (speculative) positions over time.
2. The red dotted line marks the latest level (Sep 9, 2025): +125,677 contracts net long.
3. This is a very high bullish extreme compared to the historical range.

Interpretation:

1. Specs are heavily long EUR, which often means sentiment is stretched.
2. Historically, such crowded positioning can precede either consolidation or a pullback, unless fundamentals keep supporting EUR (e.g., weaker USD, ECB hawkishness).

Would you like me to also compare this latest net long with historical COT extremes (like 5-year max/min) so you can see if this is the most crowded long ever?

I think trading in AI era will be even more technical and also moves will happen faster you can already see that on earnings.

It closed the first 6h above 1700. Sustained above 1740 looks like a b/o

yes Gator it is bullish to me. Does this changed your structure on a higher time frame as well?

i am fear that we might see a dollar sell off once we confirmed a breakout

Commander’s Market Log #8
Date: Monday, September 15, 2025
Pair: EUR/USD
Confluence Zones (+/–3.5 pips bands)
Friday’s London price: 1.1725
Above (Resistance):
1.1755 → Daily R1 / Fib overlap
1.1775 → Weekly R1 + Historical flip
1.1802 → Round number + Fib cluster
1.1821 → Monthly R1 / Daily R2
1.1910 → Weekly R2 / Historical zone 2021
Below (Support):
1.1708 → Daily S1 / Weekly Pivot
1.1681 → Fib 38.2% retrace / Daily S2
1.1661 → Weekly S1 / Historical shelf
1.1631 → Weekly S2 / Fib confluence
1.1604 → Monthly S2 / Historical support
Vacuum Zone: 1.1700–1.1760 → Thin liquidity runway, acceleration likely once broken.
Historical Memory Zone: 1.1735–1.1750 → Flip zone across 2017, 2020, 2023.
---
Event Risk – Today’s Calendar
• 07:00 → German WPI m/m
• 07:30 → Swiss PPI m/m
• 09:00 → Italian Trade Balance
• 10:00 → Eurozone Trade Balance
• 11:00 → German Buba Monthly Report
• 13:30 → CAD Manufacturing Sales / Wholesale Sales
• 13:30 → US Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 19:30 → ECB President Lagarde speaks
• 23:45 → NZD FPI m/m
No major US CPI/NFP today → ECB jawboning & Lagarde speech likely to drive flows.
---
Commander’s Tactical Outlook
EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1720–1.1735 range.
• Break above 1.1755/60 opens path toward 1.1800–1.1820.
• Failure below 1.1700 risks slide toward 1.1660–1.1630.
• With no US Tier-1, expect ECB rhetoric & trade flows to dominate.
Commander’s Log prepared with pivots, Fibs & historical zones.
Website: https://djemkumar.com/
Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/p0rbOkRw/

My structure favors bulls.. In line with the bullish indicators.. sustained 1740+ today would line up with this. It could do it anytime now.
1892-ish has a shot to be R-ish.. that is a hh.

1745 probably is less relevant now. The pair may have some memory of 1745.
A North run is likely real now. Now because the structure aligned

it is happening, not sure if we will see the rise today or post fomc

yep, always true

Looking to sell 1760 - 1780

It has not been in the 1800s for a while. 1814.5/1815 is 1/2 1892.. Lets seen what happens