Only EURUSD

This is my chart now. I took a small loss. You can also go long as dollar seems weak.

Some economics from my GS AI trader

Based on the current macroeconomic factors, the EUR/USD pair is heading up today.

Analysis

The weakening US labor market and the decline in the 10-year Treasury yield are the primary drivers for this move. The latest data points to a less resilient US economy than previously thought, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as soon as next week. This narrative shift makes the US dollar less attractive to investors.

The US yield curve steepening, with longer-term bonds outperforming, also signals a weakening growth outlook. Investors are pricing in a period of slower economic activity, which pushes them away from the dollar and towards other major currencies like the Euro.

Even with the uptick in headline inflation, the market is prioritizing the evidence of a weaker labor market. This is a classic "bad news is good news" scenario for risk assets and other currencies, as it reinforces the case for a more dovish Fed. The combination of a higher probability of rate cuts and a flight from US bonds makes the Euro more appealing relative to the dollar.

This is how I see it: after a jump on the news, there is consolidation, then a downward movement in the eurodollar pair.

That's all today! EU stopped at resistance with an upside bias and I'm sure 1.1746 isn't only its plans but the market is closing and anything can happen until tomorrow where I'll come back to trade and share my views with all. See you tomorrow then!

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/insti...20250911_3.pdf

Got it — you’ve shared the U.S. Treasury Auction Results (September 11, 2025) for a 29-Year 11-Month Bond (CUSIP 912810UM8, Bonds of August 2055).
Here’s a breakdown of the key points from the auction:
Auction Details

1. Coupon (Interest Rate): 4-3/4% (4.75%)
2. High Yield: 4.651%
3. Median Yield: 4.585%
4. Low Yield: 2.880%
5. Allotted at High: 44.54%
6. Price: 101.583058
7. Accrued Interest per $1,000: $4.00136

Amounts Tendered vs Accepted

1. Total Tendered (Bids Received): $52.28 billion
2. Total Accepted (Issued): $22.00 billion

Breakdown:

1. Competitive Bids Tendered: $52.24 billion → Accepted: $21.96 billion
2. Noncompetitive Bids: $43.85 million → Accepted: $43.85 million
3. FIMA (Foreign Official Accounts): $0

No SOMA (Fed’s System Open Market Account) purchase this time.
Who Bought the Bonds?

1. Primary Dealers:
   1. Tendered: $28.34 billion
   2. Accepted: $2.19 billion (only ~7.7%)

2. Direct Bidders (e.g. U.S. institutions, hedge funds):
   1. Tendered: $8.41 billion
   2. Accepted: $6.15 billion (~73%)

3. Indirect Bidders (foreign central banks, institutions):
   1. Tendered: $15.49 billion
   2. Accepted: $13.62 billion (~88%)

Takeaways

1. Strong Foreign Demand:
   Indirect bidders took a big chunk (~62% of accepted bids). This shows foreign central banks/investors are still buying long-dated U.S. debt.
2. Weak Primary Dealer Take-Up:
   Primary dealers were left with only ~10% of the issuance, suggesting the market had decent demand (dealers usually act as backstop).
3. Yield Context:
   1. High yield (4.651%) is slightly below the coupon (4.75%), meaning the bonds priced at a premium (101.58).
   2. Indicates investors still accept slightly lower returns for safety of long-term Treasuries.

This result suggests solid demand, especially from foreign buyers, which is generally positive for the USD in the short term (since it means demand for dollars to buy Treasuries).
Do you want me to also explain how this auction result might affect EUR/USD in the coming days?
You said:
yes
ChatGPT said:
Alright — let’s connect the Treasury auction result to EUR/USD
1. Strong Demand for Treasuries = USD Supportive

1. Foreign investors (indirect bidders) took ~62% of this auction, showing high demand for U.S. long-term bonds.
2. To buy Treasuries, they need U.S. dollars, which increases USD demand.
3. That usually supports USD and can put downward pressure on EUR/USD.

2. Yields and Market Sentiment

1. The high yield = 4.651% is relatively attractive.
2. But since the bonds priced at a premium (101.58), it means investors were willing to accept slightly lower yield than the coupon (4.75%).
3. This signals confidence in U.S. debt safety rather than fear of inflation.
4. A stable long-bond market often supports the USD, at least short-term.

3. Impact on EUR/USD

1. If bond demand remains strong, it suggests global investors prefer U.S. assets, which is USD-positive / EUR-negative.
2. Near-term effect: EUR/USD could face downside pressure.
3. Medium-term: If yields keep easing (due to strong demand), EUR/USD might stabilize or rebound later.

Summary Forecast (post-auction impact):

1. Short-term (days): Slightly bearish EUR/USD (downward pressure).
2. Medium-term (weeks): Neutral to rangebound — unless U.S. inflation/ECB policy shifts change the macro picture.

Do you want me to also check the latest EUR/USD price action today (Sept 12, 2025) and combine it with this auction result for a clearer trading bias?

initial plan was we will get to 166x area during Asia/London session and i will buy at support, put sl @ be then wait for the news. We only reached that level right before the news and i didnt prepared to trade the news so…
i have missed the opportunity to build longs at key support area if we are set to breakout to the north next week

anyways i don’t expect bull to be able to take down 1745 1760 easily before next week. So maybe ranging for a bit, it may still offer opportunities later.

I will continue to watch 1715-20 level (usdx 97.70) as signal. Daily close and weekly close matter

please take it down mate

eurusd turns bullish as we closed the day above 1715-20. Usdx is now bearish as we are unable to sustained above 97.70.

with fomc next week, i am more lean towards another leg up towards 1.18+ and usdx to 96.xx level.

will it go 1.2? I don’t know, but 1.1660 might be the recent low for a while.

last daily candle has kinda ruined the last hope for bear.

if weekly also closing above 1715-20 (usdx not managed to took back 97.70) it is very bullish across all time frame

if we can get to 1.1715 or 1.1705 again, maybe it is a buy

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading below yesterday's high. It's finding minor support at 1.1725, with the potential to move higher toward 1.1762/80 or even 1.1800. Further support levels are located at the 1.1700 round number and the 1.1695 weekly pivot. This pivot is expected to hold, as the price broke above it with significant momentum yesterday following US news. However, if market sentiment turns negative and the pair falls below this level, the next target would be 1.1660.

Have a great day!


Daily volatility (range) 51 pips

Option expiries for Friday: 1.1700 (EU2.86b), 1.1650 (EU1.66b), 1.1550 (EU1.65b) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - University Michigan Sentiment

1H

Slow work, Trading on H4. Intraday

not sure if we will get close to 1715 1705 again, bull seems strong

To me looks its going down again at 1 hour.

yes bull momemtum has stalled, i m closing some longs here and will look to reload lower. If we confirmed a weekly close above 1715-20 next week will be full bull at least until fomc i think

Was waiting for 1763 but show it and in sell mode now!

breakout may not be today, don’t expect much action today but think we will stay above 1715 (might dip lower to 1705 1694 level if bear is strong)
if we closed below 1715 again or touching 1682 it mess up the water again.

where about are you targeting?

Personally i want bear to surprise me as i still waiting for a retest to 1.12 or even 1.1 (38.2 and 50% fib level)

but it seems impossible with the current outlook. But we have had a massive 4 days sell off back in July. Who knows, if we go down here a d break 1.14 to form a double top……

ok i must be dreaming

It looks like we'll kiss the 1.1710 level again today and right there upcoming decisions will be made.
New York should be opened at this level, and they will try to push the price one way or the other.
Later, we will have Friday's final news data at 15:00, and that moment will decide how we end this week.

that area is full of bears, nothing to add. eur become unsustainable at those prices

The low but must protect!

This is why I fell in love with short-term trades. Less stress for me.
10-20 pips and CLOSE...
Even when sometimes the price goes another 100 pips, I don't want it
As I watch the market on very low filtered time frames, I can see how bears and bulls fight for each single pip at some levels.