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The Swamp

  • #124,601
  • Edited 8:17am Sep 5, 2025 4:36am | Edited 8:17am
Today's numbers to watch - 3 hours for Unemployment data - Its just me, I'm already in long (Scalp) catching few pips up and down and looking for Weekly Pivot 1.1744 = ADR 100 pips
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,602
  • Sep 5, 2025 5:05am Sep 5, 2025 5:05am
He fired the last women collecting the data. He may cook the books. Looking at ADP.. It dont look like its is going to be a good number. If its a good number, with the unemployment rate dropping. To "the best numbers nobody has ever seen". The USD may fall like a rock.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,603
  • Sep 5, 2025 5:11am Sep 5, 2025 5:11am
Quoting gatorinla
He fired the last women collecting the data. He may cook the books. Looking at ADP.. It dont look like its is going to be a good number. If its a good number, with the unemployment rate dropping. To "the best numbers nobody has ever seen". The USD may fall like a rock. {image}
in the past when adp is bad we could expect a better nfp buy for now, especially after what happened last month u just dont know if u can trust the figure anymore.

if it is manipulated, it may close to forecast. Good enough for rate cut but a recession outlook may not impress the crazy man
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,604
  • Sep 5, 2025 5:34am Sep 5, 2025 5:34am
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,605
  • Sep 5, 2025 5:48am Sep 5, 2025 5:48am
for a rate cut to be in doubt the employment change would need to be 80k or north. (unemployment goes down)

If the number is way worse than expected , say 40k then 50BPS cut might be on the table and Dollar goes down.
I think there is more chance of a bad number (more unemployment) than a good number, so higher risk is USD down
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,606
  • Sep 5, 2025 6:01am Sep 5, 2025 6:01am
Quoting johncen
{quote} in the past when adp is bad we could expect a better nfp buy for now, especially after what happened last month u just dont know if u can trust the figure anymore. if it is manipulated, it may close to forecast. Good enough for rate cut but a recession outlook may not impress the crazy man
Some layoffs have happened, open job offerings are declining.
Economic indicators in mid-2025 point to a cooling labor market, with fewer job openings and a rise in layoffs in many sectors. Several factors are driving this trend, including economic uncertainty, inflation, interest rate policies, increased use of technology, and shifting consumer behavior. For both laid-off workers and those with job insecurity, focusing on financial planning and career development can help mitigate stress and build resilience.
Signs of a cooling labor market

  1. Job openings are down: U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low in July 2025. This was the first time since 2021 that the number of unemployed people surpassed the number of available jobs.
  2. Layoffs are rising: August 2025 saw a significant increase in announced job cuts across several industries. Over 800,000 jobs were cut nationwide by July 2025, already surpassing the total for all of 2024.
  3. Hiring has slowed: The pace of hiring has decelerated, continuing a trend from previous years.
  4. Increased duration of unemployment: Data indicates that unemployed people are taking longer to find new work.

Reasons for the labor market shift

  1. Economic uncertainty: Concerns over inflation and the potential for an economic slowdown have led companies to reduce costs by cutting jobs and slowing hiring. The Federal Reserve's effort to control inflation through interest rate hikes also contributed to this uncertainty.
  2. Inflation and tariffs: Retailers, in particular, have been impacted by inflation and trade tariffs, which have weakened consumer spending. In response, many have cut jobs.
  3. Technological advancements: Increasing adoption of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) has led to layoffs in many industries, especially for entry-level positions. AI was explicitly cited as a reason for more than 10,000 layoffs in the first eight months of 2025.
  4. Federal government actions: Job cuts in the federal government and non-profit sectors were a significant driver of overall layoffs in the first half of 2025.
  5. Business restructuring: Mergers, acquisitions, and restructuring efforts have all contributed to layoffs as companies seek to eliminate redundant positions.
  6. Declining consumer spending: When consumers spend less, companies generate less revenue, leading to cost-cutting measures that include layoffs.
  7. Targeted industry declines: Certain sectors have been hit harder than others in 2025. This includes the pharmaceutical, finance, retail, media, and technology industries, as well as non-profits.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,607
  • Sep 5, 2025 6:09am Sep 5, 2025 6:09am
The estimate prices some of this in. It can miss.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Some layoffs have happened, open job offerings are declining. Economic indicators in mid-2025 point to a cooling labor market, with fewer job openings and a rise in layoffs in many sectors. Several factors are driving this trend, including economic uncertainty, inflation, interest rate policies, increased use of technology, and shifting consumer behavior. For both laid-off workers and those with job insecurity, focusing on financial planning and career development can help mitigate stress and build resilience. Signs of a cooling labor market...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,608
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:03am Sep 5, 2025 7:03am
The numbers are probably bad.. He didnt brag about them. he already has them
https://www.google.com/search?q=trum...TfuBejBqA,st:0
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,609
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:16am Sep 5, 2025 7:16am
heads up 15m NFP
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,610
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:23am Sep 5, 2025 7:23am
Quoting gatorinla
heads up 15m NFP
or not...."technical difficulties may cause delays"
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,611
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:38am Sep 5, 2025 7:38am
Quoting axecap
{quote} or not...."technical difficulties may cause delays"
22k less than expected
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,612
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:39am Sep 5, 2025 7:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 22k less than expected
it was bad and your 1745 hit
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,613
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:41am Sep 5, 2025 7:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 22k less than expected {image}
also look at the revisions from June. Its not a good number so pressure will come on for 50BPS cuts
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,614
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:49am Sep 5, 2025 7:49am
3 month average is now just 29K
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,615
  • Sep 5, 2025 7:59am Sep 5, 2025 7:59am
Quoting johncen
{quote} it was bad and your 1745 hit
If it would slip below 1706/07.. it may retreat more. It seems more likely to hit 1745 again or just play between them 1706/1745. 1745 could be the length of the chain. It mave trouble being 63 pips above 1682
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,616
  • Sep 5, 2025 8:27am Sep 5, 2025 8:27am
Quoting axecap
3 month average is now just 29K
I could say i was shocked. Not that its that low. I would think it would be lower and may be revised again
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,617
  • Sep 5, 2025 8:28am Sep 5, 2025 8:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I could say i was shocked. Not that its that low. I would think it would be lower and may be revised again
july revised up a bit but june is now negative.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,618
  • Sep 5, 2025 8:31am Sep 5, 2025 8:31am
Quoting axecap
3 month average is now just 29K
I could say i was shocked. Not that its that low. I would think it would be lower and may be revised again. That's not good for the u.s. or the usd. At least it seems that way on the surface. That may not be the reality. The U.S. is a large part of the worlds consumption. A cold here causes pneumonia in other places. Its all relative. It the longer term the usd could rise later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,619
  • Sep 5, 2025 8:36am Sep 5, 2025 8:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I could say i was shocked. Not that its that low. I would think it would be lower and may be revised again. That's not good for the u.s. or the usd. At least it seems that way on the surface. That may not be the reality. The U.S. is a large part of the worlds consumption. A cold here causes pneumonia in other places. Its all relative. It the longer term the usd could rise later
yea i was thinking the same. Given it was so bad market may fear a potential recession. And if US economy is not doing well, it impacts the others. Dollar is still ond of the safe heaven, at least for now - until mr President do more damage to it…
Looking forward to see his reaction to the nfp. Is America still doing so good like never before?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,620
  • Sep 5, 2025 9:04am Sep 5, 2025 9:04am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i was thinking the same. Given it was so bad market may fear a potential recession. And if US economy is not doing well, it impacts the others. Dollar is still ond of the safe heaven, at least for now - until mr President do more damage to it… Looking forward to see his reaction to the nfp. Is America still doing so good like never before?
It wasn't the counter,, it was the data. 88k was gov jobs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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