Bit of information that people might not be aware of. The withdrawal requirements for hedge funds require 45 days notice. The notice date for the end of September is tomorrow. It is quite likely that many (if not all) people are going to want to get their money out and will be making their notice. The hedge funds will have to liquidate their assets, which at this time are probably worth pennies on the dollar.
This could be a trigger that leads to a real stock market collapse. I fully expect a rapid and basically complete collapse of the hedge fund market, and loss of huge amounts of money.
Things could get real scary, real fast this week.
Ignored
Yes, very interesting. Saxobank was saying something earlier today about some absolutely gigantic similar tab that someone's got to pick up next Monday... and they were saying it was very difficult to see who's going to pick it up.
Bit of information that people might not be aware of. The withdrawal requirements for hedge funds require 45 days notice. The notice date for the end of September is tomorrow. It is quite likely that many (if not all) people are going to want to get their money out and will be making their notice. The hedge funds will have to liquidate their assets, which at this time are probably worth pennies on the dollar.
This could be a trigger that leads to a real stock market collapse. I fully expect a rapid and basically complete collapse of the hedge fund market, and loss of huge amounts of money.
Things could get real scary, real fast this week.
Ignored
Pardon my ignorance... but... How will that affect the ForEx market? Specifically our favorite, the GBP/JPY pair?
Sentinel Management Group Inc., which oversees about $1.6 billion in assets, has told clients it wants to block redemptions to avoid a forced liquidation. Sentinel of Northbrook, Illinois, asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for permission to halt redemptions, but the regulator said on Tuesday it does not have the authority to grant the request.
"We have no role in whether or not the company does this and whether the client accepts this," a CFTC official said.
Sentinel is registered as a futures commission merchant with the CFTC.
CNBC Television on Tuesday reported that Sentinel told clients it was seeking to halt redemptions.
In an Aug. 13 letter, Sentinel said it was worried it would not be able to meet any significant redemption requests.
"We do not see an alternative and we don't believe it is anyone's best interest if a run on Sentinel took place and we were in a forced liquidation mode," Sentinel's management said in a letter dated Aug. 13. (Reporting by Christian Plumb, Joseph A. Giannone and Mike Erman)
Pardon my ignorance... but... How will that affect the ForEx market? Specifically our favorite, the GBP/JPY pair?
Ignored
According to wikipedia, the top 25 hedge funds had over 300 billion in assets in 2005 (probably a lot more now). forced liquidation of these assets will crash the stock market, expose the value (or lack thereof) of various mortgage backed securities, and generally create chaos in the financial sector.
I am sure that GJ will go down substantially, but I am more worried that it will trigger a real economic crisis.
According to wikipedia, the top 25 hedge funds had over 300 billion in assets in 2005 (probably a lot more now). forced liquidation of these assets will crash the stock market, expose the value (or lack thereof) of various mortgage backed securities, and generally create chaos in the financial sector.
I am sure that GJ will go down substantially, but I am more worried that it will trigger a real economic crisis.
Sentinel Management Group Inc., which oversees about $1.6 billion in assets, has told clients it wants to block redemptions to avoid a forced liquidation. Sentinel of Northbrook, Illinois, asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for permission to halt redemptions, but the regulator said on Tuesday it does not have the authority to grant the request.
"We have no role in whether or not the company does this and whether the client accepts this," a CFTC official said.
Sentinel is registered as a futures commission merchant with the CFTC.
CNBC Television on Tuesday reported that Sentinel told clients it was seeking to halt redemptions.
In an Aug. 13 letter, Sentinel said it was worried it would not be able to meet any significant redemption requests.
"We do not see an alternative and we don't believe it is anyone's best interest if a run on Sentinel took place and we were in a forced liquidation mode," Sentinel's management said in a letter dated Aug. 13. (Reporting by Christian Plumb, Joseph A. Giannone and Mike Erman)
Refusal to liquidate will actually make the problem worse. The hedge funds are a problem, because they are essentially unregulated. On top of that, most of the large hedge funds are located in the Caymen Islands, which will make recovery of the funds even more of a nightmare.
I'm not sure how far down this present 4H candle will go but it doesn't appear we will see a major retracement until at least 2400GMT. It appears that ultimately price will go to at least the 61.8 Fib level, around 232.60, as Karmo has speculated. It might even touch the bottom of the huge 1000 pip bearish channel we've been following, which could be around 232 or lower by the time it is reached. Will it retrace before these levels are reached is anybody's guess. Momentum is strong right now, though volume is weak because the major markets are closed at the moment. By 2300 or 2400 GMT we should know immediately if there will be a retracement at that time or if momentum down will carry into the Asian market session. Though this Chart is premature (because the present 4H candle hasn't closed yet) it appears that we will also have divergence on MACD to price which will push price back up for a retracement, it's just hard to say exactly when. My guess is it will coincide with price reaching the 61.8 Fib or the bottom of the channel. How much retracement is expected would be better answered by Aus or Karmo. Hope some of this helps.
M2B
P.S.- Blue lines show divergence. Black lines show channel.
According to wikipedia, the top 25 hedge funds had over 300 billion in assets in 2005 (probably a lot more now). forced liquidation of these assets will crash the stock market, expose the value (or lack thereof) of various mortgage backed securities, and generally create chaos in the financial sector.
I am sure that GJ will go down substantially, but I am more worried that it will trigger a real economic crisis.
Ignored
Sounds like if we short and things really Really tank as you say they "Might" we might make enough on the trade to still eat every now and then?
We made a QQE indicator for MT4 with an alert and email system. It works just like the VT QQE and if you compare the two you will have a 99% accuracy. the 1% difference is the difference between the data feeds, not the math of the indicator.
This indicator is good for a week, this is just for testing at the moment.
I'm not sure how far down this present 4H candle will go but it doesn't appear we will see a major retracement until at least 2400GMT. It appears that ultimately it will go to at least the 61.8 Fib level, around 232.60, as Karmo has speculated. It might even touch the bottom of the huge 1000 pip bearish channel we've been following, which could be around 232 or lower by the time it is reached. Will it retrace before these levels are reached is anybody's guess. Momentum is strong right now, though volume is weak because the major markets are closed at the moment. By 2300 or 2400 GMT we should know immediately if there will be a retracement at that time or if momentum down will carry into the Asian market session. Though this Chart is premature (because the present 4H candle hasn't closed yet) it appears that we will also have divergence on MACD to price which will push price back up, it's just hard to say exactly when. My guess is it will coincide with price reaching the 61.8 Fib or the bottom of the channel. How much retracement is expected would be better answered by Aus or Karmo. Hope some of this helps.
M2B
P.S.- Blue lines show divergence. Black lines show channel.
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Joined Jan 2007
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Status: Almost a 3 yr rookie
|566 Posts
Stopped out for +110 pips
Guess I will wait to see if it climbs higher then see if I want to get in with a short again. I don't want to leave for work with out securing at least break even and let the T/S do the rest while I am at work.
I am new to Forex trading. Please let me know how to set the chart in VT. And I also found VT zip file in this thread. How it is opened? I downloaded but it can not open.
Anyone here trading VT on a live account? Looks like last hour they had a spike up to around 235.40. My MT4 platform through ODL only went to 234.78, about a 60 pip difference.
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
