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Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

  • #141
  • Aug 29, 2025 7:04am Aug 29, 2025 7:04am
Quoting bluesteele
A little closer look at Crude on the 1min.. Using auction market theory of Fair Value Price discovery etc, and adding a simplistic RoadMap (Laura's thread) entry method. But with the bigger picture in mind.. {image} {image} Edit: Forgot this one....This is what I posted this morning about missing... The first short of the day. Was a 15m ORB BO aligned with RoadMap perfectly and VWAP with the confirmation candle close below etc But theres always another bus that comes along.... If I am not winning....I am learning (not losing) {image}...
NQ in the afternoon UK time -NY open ORB ?
Then throw up a 15 minute chart to look left or crunch up the 5 minute chart and note previous levels for possible reactions?
Edit: Still raining but the garden needs it !!
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #142
  • Aug 29, 2025 7:18am Aug 29, 2025 7:18am
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #143
  • Aug 29, 2025 7:31am Aug 29, 2025 7:31am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} NQ in the afternoon UK time -NY open ORB ? Then throw up a 15 minute chart to look left or crunch up the 5 minute chart and note previous levels for possible reactions? Edit: Still raining but the garden needs it !! {image}

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #144
  • Aug 29, 2025 7:32am Aug 29, 2025 7:32am
Quoting bluesteele
{image}
Gold likes to move a lot last 2 days of month.
Levels that IB x 2 trades see vs. levels that everybody can see.
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I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #145
  • Aug 29, 2025 7:51am Aug 29, 2025 7:51am
Quoting bluesteele
{image}
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #146
  • Aug 29, 2025 8:23am Aug 29, 2025 8:23am
Goldzilla running hot
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #147
  • Aug 29, 2025 8:33am Aug 29, 2025 8:33am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} {image} {image}
8EMA channel is 8 candles late ?
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I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #148
  • Aug 29, 2025 8:51am Aug 29, 2025 8:51am
Quoting bluesteele
Goldzilla running hot
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I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #149
  • Aug 29, 2025 5:53pm Aug 29, 2025 5:53pm
"At the end of the day the problem is not guns. The problem is the human heart. It's mental health." - Mike Johnson
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Simply amazing!!!!
WoW!

There are NO mental health problems in Japan Italy and the UK,,,, perhaps we could learn something from them???

If it is mental health that is the cause,,,then obviously these countries have that solved as such a low incidence of school shootings!!!

Funny thing...these countries and well the vast majority of all other countries on Earth have far far far lower murder rates per capita than the US... So that must be "Mental Health" issues solved as well !!!

Speaker Johnson is such an incite-full man ! For a second I thought " It must be the guns"
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #150
  • Aug 29, 2025 9:19pm Aug 29, 2025 9:19pm
Quoting bluesteele
"At the end of the day the problem is not guns. The problem is the human heart. It's mental health." - Mike Johnson {image} Simply amazing!!!! WoW! There are NO mental health problems in Japan Italy and the UK,,,, perhaps we could learn something from them??? If it is mental health that is the cause,,,then obviously these countries have that solved as such a low incidence of school shootings!!! Funny thing...these countries and well the vast majority of all other countries on Earth have far far far lower murder rates per capita than the US... So...
Given the average of 19.2 shootings per year, one down, 18 to go. Let that sink in - between now and June 2026 we will likely experience approximately 18 more such shootings.

We know this. But we will do nothing to begin the process that would prevent such death and mayhem. Are we great again?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #151
  • Aug 31, 2025 10:45pm Aug 31, 2025 10:45pm
GOLD GOLD GOLD
Clean Long Setup

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  • #152
  • Sep 1, 2025 3:41am Sep 1, 2025 3:41am
Quoting bluesteele
GOLD GOLD GOLD Clean Long Setup {image} {image} {image}
Did I see some 5 minute ORB's in there?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #153
  • Sep 1, 2025 9:38am Sep 1, 2025 9:38am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Did I see some 5 minute ORB's in there?
LOL...Well I am sure there very well could be !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #154
  • Sep 1, 2025 4:43pm Sep 1, 2025 4:43pm
Quoting bluesteele
GOLD GOLD GOLD Clean Long Setup {image} {image} {image}
The above quoted post(3 posts above) the very first chart is labelled incorrectly.
The Swing Low VWAP is anchored to is Aug 19th not Aug 9th

Gold made a "FVG" Aug 1st with a 500+tick move $50+
This FVG(I use term loosely) is nothing more than a market IMBALANCE
an inefficiency..

Lo n behold the market comes back and fills that imbalance 19 days later on Aug 19th
making a NEW SWING LOW.... Brian Shannon the VWAP expert talks about where
to ANCHOR VWAP....and this is a very obvious anchor point as it was IMPORTANT enough
for the market to comeback and fill this almost to the exact tick.

So we anchor off that and follow along day by day like good boys and girls staying in the lines
Waiting and watching for a potential opportunity.

The market eventually breaks out of the VWAP fair value ,, in other words outside of 1 SD Standard Deviation.
And then things get interesting.,,,

Now you can see where those "Lines" in the quoted post above come from...
A very particular important turning point on the charts.

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #155
  • Sep 1, 2025 7:20pm Sep 1, 2025 7:20pm
Same stuff different day

Gold 8-9 pm timing setup

Levels.... Initial Balance H/L/mid/Open and Extensions
VWAP etc etc

Behaviour of Price... always the same Structure BOs Engulfing candles is a good start.

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  • #156
  • Sep 1, 2025 7:59pm Sep 1, 2025 7:59pm
The Market is at least 80% Institutions and the majority of their trades are done by algos.

I am not a programmer..I barely can use Excel..Im a pen n paper guy.
BUT common sense would tell me That some sort of structure would be
built off the Opens of the markets. We see it in the Volume..
Volume comes in at certain times like clockwork.

Time Timings etc are so important to grasp.... If you dont think so you havent thought deep enough
or for that matter simple enough. OHLC is a hint,,,,

If you are not using the basic timings of the markets you are flying blind.

These timings set structure for the day...simple as that,,,,
Initial Balance is the 1st hour of the market open
and yes this applies to currency markets as well.

The IB sets structure for the day and thru Globex(Asia/UK) until the start of the next IB.

Here's a list of Opens,,,

Coffee: 8:00 am
Cocoa: 8:00 am
Dollar Index: 8:00 am
Aus dollar: 8:00 am

Copper: 8:10 am
Sugar: 8:10 am

Gold: 8:20 am
30-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
5-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
10-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
Euro: 8:20 am
GBP: 8:20 am

Silver: 8:25 am

Crude oil: 9:00 am
Heating oil: 9:00 am
Natural Gas: 9:00 am
Unleaded: 9:00 am

Indices : 9:30 am

Wheat: 9:30 am
Soybeans: 9:30 am
Corn: 9:30 am

Cotton: 10:30 am


Here's a Gold chart from the other day...going from level to level..extension to extension
The extensions are nothing more than measured moves from IBH-IBL 0.5x 1.0x 2.0x etc


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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #157
  • Sep 2, 2025 5:59am Sep 2, 2025 5:59am
Chart posted above a couple posts...Last nights Asia Globex Gold
Highlighted in yellow areas where the IB has played off of etc...

Chart this morning same chart but,,, suffice it to say you will see..

I dont predict or guess....Just educated decisions from my process.
I dont just trade blindly off these levels. I use VWAP etc.

Cheers and have a good week Time to get back to the charts and focus


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  • #158
  • Sep 2, 2025 7:39am Sep 2, 2025 7:39am
5min CL Oil Timing 8am onwards Levels 66.00 BRN Behaviour of Price extended outside 1SD Fair Value
and Engulfs back into Fair Value (Pink box) targets are VWAP red and opposite side of Fair Value 1SD blue.

Tick tock and still price is holding below VWAP/red coincidentally also a BRN 65.00
Round #s are so important in Crude trading normally the most common strike prices for options (catalyst )
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1min CL RoadMap
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #159
  • Sep 2, 2025 11:46am Sep 2, 2025 11:46am
One of those days...
Follow the plan
Follow the process
Reap the Rewards

Gracias Dios
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #160
  • Sep 2, 2025 12:47pm Sep 2, 2025 12:47pm
Quoting bluesteele
One of those days... Follow the plan Follow the process Reap the Rewards Gracias Dios
Hi Blue

Doing my best to trade from an Airport Lounge in Helsinki after my flight was being delayed by 12 hours.
NO EXCUSES - A trader will find a way to trade if he 's serious.

Therefore I'm just looking to trade one Market which is my go too market = NQ

I keep talking about EXECUTION IS EVERYTHING , so here is my preferred method for NQ as seen on my secondary Execution Chart.
I am a big Fan of using Cumulative Delta on NQ to time my entry with the big players. I want to go Short only when I see Sellers entering in big or go Long only when I see big volume my Buyers - BUT THERE IS A TRICK

Don't use NQ Cum Delta - Only use Cum Delta Data from MNQ if you are trading NQ
MNQ has more Volume hitting the charts every day than ES, its KING.

Trade 1 - Price Discovery move from POC supported by Large Selling Volume
Trade 2 - Bounce of VWAP supported by Large Selling Volume
Trade 3 - Price Discovery move supported by Large Selling Volume
Trade 4 - Bounce of Initial Balance (60 Minute) supported by enough Buyers to get me in
Trade 5 - Bounce of POC supported by Fading VWAP and reasonable Selling Volume (probably not enough Sellers really)

Yes, USE INITAL BALANCE which for me is 60 Minutes

I liked trade 1, 3 and 4 best - trade 5 wasn't great

Cheers
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