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The Swamp

  • #124,541
  • Edited 1:32pm Aug 29, 2025 10:15am | Edited 1:32pm
The CDC fired one doctor to get another. This is where America is today.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,542
  • Aug 29, 2025 6:17pm Aug 29, 2025 6:17pm
Most of tariffs ruled illegal.. To the Supreme Court next
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,543
  • Aug 29, 2025 8:05pm Aug 29, 2025 8:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
Most of tariffs ruled illegal.. To the Supreme Court next
If upheld, the unwinding, refunds, payback is going to cause a meltdown that will liquify the Arctic.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #124,544
  • Aug 29, 2025 9:53pm Aug 29, 2025 9:53pm
Quoting longfellow
{quote} If upheld, the unwinding, refunds, payback is going to cause a meltdown that will liquify the Arctic.
Just like trade deals are treaties. He dont have the power to make a trade deal without Senate approval. He bullshited the masses. The con artist built a wall paid for by Mexico.. Now the caravans of leapers wont come.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,545
  • Aug 29, 2025 10:08pm Aug 29, 2025 10:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just like trade deals are treaties. He dont have the power to make a trade deal without Senate approval. He bullshited the masses. The con artist built a wall paid for by Mexico.. Now the caravans of leapers wont come.
If the idiot didnt start the tariff bullshit. Powell would of already cut. The moron shot himself and the country in the foot. Markets would be higher
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,546
  • Aug 29, 2025 10:30pm Aug 29, 2025 10:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the idiot didn't start the tariff bullshit. Powell would of already cut. The moron shot himself and the country in the foot. Markets would be higher
He needed the tariffs to pay for the tax cuts and he wouldn't have got in without the support from the oligarchs
who wanted the tax cut. If he loses the tariffs the debt increase dramatically. I still think his supreme court appointees will throw it out. Ironically the emergency economic argument then might be valid to keep the tariffs because of the chaos he has caused be illegally introducing tariffs will be nothing compared to trying to pay them back.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,547
  • Aug 30, 2025 4:35am Aug 30, 2025 4:35am
more law suits are going to hurt the dollars, tariffs plus Lisa Cook. Seems like a Sept cut is almost guaranteed as market is ignoring better US data which should boost up the dollars. The problem is do we see further up after the rate cut?
June was bullish, July was bearish and August bullish. Will we see consolidation to continues in September so maybe second month of gains for the dollars while at key support level?

Too early to comment on this but IG is showing a gap up. Over the last coule of weeks IG weekend prices are not that accruate
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,548
  • Edited 6:02am Aug 30, 2025 5:44am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting johncen
more law suits are going to hurt the dollars, tariffs plus Lisa Cook. Seems like a Sept cut is almost guaranteed as market is ignoring better US data which should boost up the dollars. The problem is do we see further up after the rate cut? June was bullish, July was bearish and August bullish. Will we see consolidation to continues in September so maybe second month of gains for the dollars while at key support level? Too early to comment on this but IG is showing a gap up. Over the last coule of weeks IG weekend prices are not that accruate {image}...
The EU is close to 1745. What your saying may be true. But the usd got kicked in the balls. Just a few days before he was sworn in. Had he not been sworn in the eur/usd trajectory was down on a yearly plus chart. There is so many factors involved. The law he tried to base tariffs on dont even include raising taxes. He never had that power had congress done their job. He dont have the power to make trade deals without congress either. Congress is the only branch that can raise money. My point being the usd was headed up before he was sworn in. Will it revert back? Those COT positions suggest yes. Those banks just shut up betting the courts would rule in their favor. The tax cuts are law. They are permanent for the upper class. They are temporary for the rest. Paying back the tariffs, plus the deficit rise, then no tariffs is going to really blow a hole in the deficit. We are on the trajectory to add trillions in debt with the ugly bill. The last one added 2.7 trillion per year since. This new law even more debt. We have a law called Pay-Go. When that number is reached. They start cutting benefits. That includes medicare. medicaid, social security benefits. VA disability benefits. Bubba voted to cut his own throat. All those in congress who support this may be in deep shit is 15 months. The big ugly law could be repealed. That pengelin can swing back. The country will have payment scars.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,549
  • Aug 30, 2025 5:50am Aug 30, 2025 5:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The EU is close to 1745. What your saying may be true. But the usd got kicked in the balls. Just a few days before he was sworn in. Had he not been sworn in the usd trajectory was down on a yearly plus chart. There is so many factors involved. The law he tried to base tariffs on dont even include raising taxes. He never had that power had congress done their job. He dont have the power to make trade deals without congress either. Congress is the only branch that can raise money. My point being the usd was headed up before he was sworn in....
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The Fed is separate from the U.S. Government. So is the post office. They have more security over being fired from Grandpa. The courts will have the last word on Lisa Cook.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,550
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:05am Aug 30, 2025 6:05am
PAY GO

Under the federal Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) rule, a broad range of mandatory spending programs can be cut if the total cost of new tax cuts or entitlement spending is not offset. When a new law would increase the deficit, an automatic, across-the-board spending cut called a "sequestration" is triggered to cover the shortfall.
What is cut
Sequestration cuts are applied across specific categories of mandatory spending programs. This includes a wide variety of spending on:

  1. Medicare: A significant portion of Medicare is subject to PAYGO cuts, which can lower payments to providers.
  2. Farm subsidies and crop insurance.
  3. Non-defense mandatory spending: This includes a variety of other federal programs.

What is protected from cuts
Certain programs are exempt from PAYGO's sequestration cuts. This protects some of the most politically sensitive or essential federal programs, including:

  1. Social Security.
  2. Veterans' benefits.
  3. Medicaid.
  4. Federal retirement and other low-income benefits.
  5. Discretionary spending, which is set by annual appropriation bills.

How PAYGO works

  1. A new bill is passed: This could be legislation that reduces taxes or increases mandatory spending on entitlement programs.
  2. A "scorecard" is updated: The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) keeps track of whether the legislation has a net positive or negative effect on the deficit.
  3. Sequestration is triggered: If a "positive balance" (meaning a net increase in the deficit) is on the scorecard at the end of the year, a sequestration order is issued.
  4. Cuts are applied: Spending is cut from the non-exempt mandatory programs until the cost of the new legislation is fully offset. The cuts are divided equally between defense and non-defense programs.

  1. It's Time for "Super PAYGO"-2025-08-06
    Aug 6, 2025 — Statutory and Administrative PAYGO are enforced through a broad spending cut to certain mandatory spending programs known as “sequestration”, which is triggered...
    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/f...=TYPE,SIZE,URL
    Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...4y8fuh_3ux4xjU
  2. The progressive case for pay-as-you-go budget rules - The Hill
    Jan 8, 2019 — Modern pay-as-you-go budget rules originated in the bipartisan Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. They were the brainchild of Rep. Leon Panetta (D-Calif.), whose o...
    https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/f...=TYPE,SIZE,URL
    The Hill
    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...CFRv9QM6bbW_HK
  3. The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 - Congress.gov
    Feb 4, 2010 — As a budget enforcement tool, the new statutory PAYGO process is aimed at preventing, or at least discouraging, net deficit increases arising from the enactment...
    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/f...=TYPE,SIZE,URL
    Congress.gov
    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...rmPsFTuXBkRLr0

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,551
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:06am Aug 30, 2025 6:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image} The Fed is separate from the U.S. Government. So is the post office. They have more security over being fired from Grandpa. The courts will have the last word on Lisa Cook.
i would consider a breakout if we stands above 1745 but COT still heavily short so maybe not.
though the entire situation US is in deep shit, i can’t see much reasons favouring a strong dollar
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,552
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:11am Aug 30, 2025 6:11am
When cancer treatments are stopped and grandma is thrown out the old folks home. Shit will change. Politicians will be seeking another line of work.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,553
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:17am Aug 30, 2025 6:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i would consider a breakout if we stands above 1745 but COT still heavily short so maybe not. though the entire situation US is in deep shit, i can’t see much reasons favouring a strong dollar
I made that mistake before. Its not really about the dollar always. It's about the usd compared to the other currency. In the short term the usd will get the bad press. But after will it will matter comparable at that moment in time. If the tariffs placed the eu at 17xx from 1.03. When removed where it be? The usd was on a 1.0 trajectory before. Does removing the tariffs make the eur shine? After a rate cut.. It may do the unexpected. Is the cut priced in?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,554
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:25am Aug 30, 2025 6:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I made that mistake before. Its not really about the dollar always. It's about the usd compared to the other currency. In the short term the usd will get the bad press. But after will it will matter comparable at that moment in time. If the tariffs placed the eu at 17xx from 1.03. When removed where it be? The usd was on a 1.0 trajectory before. Does removing the tariffs make the eur shine? After a rate cut.. It may do the unexpected. Is the cut priced in?
that to me is the only possible we may see a drop in eu. Buy rumours sell fact. After rate cut market may realise fed rate is still 2% higher than Euro zone. EU is also in trouble facing a slowing economy, threats from Russia, shrink in international power in many topics, internal conflicts and more.
is Euro really a better substitutes for the dollar?

the question is when market sentiment will shift to the other end?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,555
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:41am Aug 30, 2025 6:41am
Quoting johncen
{quote} that to me is the only possible we may see a drop in eu. Buy rumours sell fact. After rate cut market may realise fed rate is still 2% higher than Euro zone. EU is also in trouble facing a slowing economy, threats from Russia, shrink in international power in many topics, internal conflicts and more. is Euro really a better substitutes for the dollar? the question is when market sentiment will shift to the other end?
Yeah people are ignoring the stuff in Europe because Grandpa is a media hog. The pediphille/tariff stuff will just make him say more stupid shit. The fact is. There is a live war in Europe. Its mostly being ignored. The EU has a war on its steps. And our moron dont seem to get it. He helps Putin while hurting his allies. He says enough stupid shit to hurt the usd, and help the eur. That's counter the flow of water.
In what other time in history would a war on the continent help verses the U.S.? This shit dont make any sense. You gotta really try to fuck up this much. you cant fuck up this accidently
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,556
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:45am Aug 30, 2025 6:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah people are ignoring the stuff in Europe because Grandpa is a media hog. Thr pediphille/tariff stuff will just make him say more stupid shit. The fact is. There is a live war in Europe. Is mostly being ignored. The EU has a war on its steps. And our moron dont seem to get it. He helps Putin while hurting his alias.
eu and most of other US alies are forced to sign trade deals that pays massive amount of tariff. Signing that trade deal is already a bad news to the Euro zone and has been ignored.

anyways market rules, they may go up to 1.2 first but i doubt it. I m waiting for a fake breakout then after rate cut things may change

rate cut is pretty mch priced in already i dnt see much room to go further up unless market starting to expect 0.5% cut in Sep and more aggressive rate cuts after

before that its likely to be more consolidation and range trading.

monday is a public holiday, we may see eu attempt to go high and slowly moves back down.

nfp forecast is very low at 74k, will we see a surprise?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,557
  • Aug 30, 2025 6:53am Aug 30, 2025 6:53am
Quoting johncen
{quote} eu and most of other US alies are forced to sign trade deals that pays massive amount of tariff. Signing that trade deal is already a bad news to the Euro zone and has been ignored. anyways market rules, they may go up to 1.2 first but i doubt it. I m waiting for a fake breakout then after rate cut things may change rate cut is pretty mch priced in already i dnt see much room to go further up unless market starting to expect 0.5% cut in Sep and more aggressive rate cuts after before that its likely to be more consolidation and range trading....
The market will figure it out.
The market voted the past 9 months.. It wasn't a good outlook for the U.S. 7 tech companies price distorted the rest
The AUD may do better via China exports via tariff news
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,558
  • Aug 30, 2025 7:00am Aug 30, 2025 7:00am
Interesting outlook — the targets you’ve laid out for EUR, silver, and oil are bold. Let’s see how closely the markets follow that path.
CoinFlips – https://coinflips.com.au
  • #124,559
  • Aug 30, 2025 7:14am Aug 30, 2025 7:14am
EU last year closed in a b/o close. It shows a multi decade. 23 year lower close. I think it should had fallen tech wise. But the tariffs/nut job hurt the trajectory. Removing the tariffs may remove some upper pressure after the dust settles. This move up was large. Similar to war years ramp up for the u.s. Yet we were not at war
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,560
  • Aug 31, 2025 10:44pm Aug 31, 2025 10:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
EU last year closed in a b/o close. It shows a multi decade. 23 year lower close. I think it should had fallen tech wise. But the tariffs/nut job hurt the trajectory. Removing the tariffs may remove some upper pressure after the dust settles. This move up was large. Similar to war years ramp up for the u.s. Yet we were not at war {image}
I closed my short opened at 1732.
This move up above 1712 failed my setup so I'm out. Waiting to see next move...
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
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