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My approach to forex trading

  • #21
  • Jul 5, 2007 2:00am Jul 5, 2007 2:00am
I like your strategy,lots of room for personalizing and subjectivity.I trade Tkimble's "Daily Scalping" found on this great website.Keep up the good work and would like to see more.
Cheers.
  • #22
  • Jul 5, 2007 2:18am Jul 5, 2007 2:18am
Quoting edge540
I like your strategy,lots of room for personalizing and subjectivity.I trade Tkimble's "Daily Scalping" found on this great website.Keep up the good work and would like to see more.
Cheers.
Hi Edge,
next days we will be rady to trade monthly hot spot.
Stay tuned

I will check out Tkimble, but form me intraday trading is too much.
I like sniper method found here on FF, using MACD and SMA100 on 4h charting. Still testing.

Cheers
  • #23
  • Jul 12, 2007 12:38am Jul 12, 2007 12:38am
Hi to everybody (if any reading this),
i've been out of office these days, of course the best to trade my system!!!!!

But,
USDJPY: hot high 123.50 or round there, traded on 6th day, wonderful
EURUSD: of course difficult to trade the hot low at 1.3529, i am trying to profit from the break out of the hot high
USDCHF: another great hot high at 1.2230 or around there, done on 6th deay, closed in profit.

Looking to trade EURCHF, hope 1.66 is the high for the month!!!

Any comments/idea/insult????

Today is sunny here in Milan!!

Vella
  • #24
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:23am Jul 12, 2007 1:23am
I took a demo trade on GBP/JPY using your method,sold at 248.6 on 9th July (hot high 248.77) and closed out on 10th July for a 260 pip profit.
How do you handle situations where the intial hot high/low is exceeded on subsequent days,do you trade these new high/lows or wait for the next week/month /quarter.Any more information on you method would be appreciated.
  • #25
  • Jul 12, 2007 4:32am Jul 12, 2007 4:32am
Quoting edge540
I took a demo trade on GBP/JPY using your method,sold at 248.6 on 9th July (hot high 248.77) and closed out on 10th July for a 260 pip profit.
How do you handle situations where the intial hot high/low is exceeded on subsequent days,do you trade these new high/lows or wait for the next week/month /quarter.Any more information on you method would be appreciated.
When a potential high or low is exceeded after the initial period, yhe market is telling me that high or low was nonsense. This month, the market in EURUSD told me that 1.3659 is not relevant, and that 1.3529 is the low of the month. I sometimes trade the breakout, but it's difficult because i have no clues where to place a stop (or i can place a stop below 1.3529 in this case, but it's too far away for me. But again, it would be really a 80% chance winning trade).
Sometimes the market return back to the confirmed high or low, in EURUSD case back to 1.3529. That would be a great opportunity to trade.
I usually place a stop 35/50pips far away the hot spot i am trading (some 60 on JPY crosses).

Take into account that on the 23rd it will end the hot period for the current quarter. Stay tuned!!!!!

GBPUSD gave a great opportunity to get long on July 6, making a low just below 2.007x, the low of the first day of the month. Of course i missed it!!!!

Have fun
Vella
  • #26
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:30pm Jul 12, 2007 1:30pm
What pairs do you trade?
  • #27
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:45pm Jul 12, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting vellaItaly
Hi everybody,
new on this site, but not on forex trading, i’m gonna let you know my trading approach (pls forgive my not so perfect English, I am Italian).
I've read lot of smart and interesteing people here at FF, people that share their efforts for free, and would like to participate in this positive environment.


molte grazie!

What are the settings for your green moving average?
  • #28
  • Jul 13, 2007 12:43am Jul 13, 2007 12:43am
Quoting KudzuFX
molte grazie!

What are the settings for your green moving average?
Hi guys,
the moving average is a "simple" simple MA 100, used in a classical combination with MACD(52,26,1 that is no signal line).
But i don't rely on these indicators more than "at a glance". No rules, only a general feeling of the market situation.
The only thing i learned about MACD is to take into account only streched situations. When MACD reach high or low historical values for that pair, i don't trade against it. Just a soft filter for my hot spots.

Edge,
i trade primarly EURUSD, GBPUSD (much more regular behaviour), USDJPY, AUDUSD, and less often GBPCHF, GBPJPY, EURGBP, EURJPY. Be careful about USDCHF and EURCHF: i don't know why but hot spots work with lower successful probability with respect to others pairs.
I know, this month i'm trying EURCHF, coherence is not my best feature....

Cheers
  • #29
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:08pm Aug 9, 2007 3:08pm
I don't know why there is not more interest in your method as I've taken a few demo trades with spectacular results.
1. Sold USD/JPY 8/8/07 +107pips to date still open.
2.Sold GBP/JPY 8/8/07 +410 pips to date still open.
3.Sold EUR/CHF 8/8/07 +141 pips to date still open.
I'm going to look back (Manually) and confirm the method this weekend and next month try some real trades.Thanks for your ideas.
P.S I've tightened the above trade stops as they approach the hot lows which is where I've set profit targets.
  • #30
  • Aug 13, 2007 6:05am Aug 13, 2007 6:05am
Quoting edge540
I don't know why there is not more interest in your method as I've taken a few demo trades with spectacular results.
1. Sold USD/JPY 8/8/07 +107pips to date still open.
2.Sold GBP/JPY 8/8/07 +410 pips to date still open.
3.Sold EUR/CHF 8/8/07 +141 pips to date still open.
I'm going to look back (Manually) and confirm the method this weekend and next month try some real trades.Thanks for your ideas.
P.S I've tightened the above trade stops as they approach the hot lows which is where I've set profit targets.

Well done Edge!!!
I was on holiday last few week, back just today.
I think it'wise to close those trades at hot low: high volatility, good profits, markets in the middle of an almost structural turmoil.

Next days i'll try to find some good opportunity, maybe at week level, even thogh EURUSD and GBPUSD are both close to hot low of the month. But I am afraid hot highs for these pairs will hold.

Maybe 117.20 USDJPY can prove as a monthly low.
Inshallah!!!!

Take care
Vella
  • #31
  • Aug 13, 2007 2:03pm Aug 13, 2007 2:03pm
Good to see you are still around.I closed all above trades with good profits.
1.USD/JPY +176 pips, target was hot low.
2.EUR/CHF +154 pips, target was hot low.
3.GBP/JPY +429 pips, stopped out with trailing stop.
I've just bought EUR/JPY at 160.91 with a stop at 160.30, which is near the hot low for the month.There would have been a good buy for the GBP/CHF in the last two days down near the hot low for the month.
Do you keep trading the monthly hot highs and lows during the whole month or just at the beginning.One last question with regard to quarterly trades,can any quarter be traded or do you start your quarter at the beginning of the year?
  • #32
  • Aug 14, 2007 1:03am Aug 14, 2007 1:03am
Quoting edge540
Good to see you are still around.I closed all above trades with good profits.
1.USD/JPY +176 pips, target was hot low.
2.EUR/CHF +154 pips, target was hot low.
3.GBP/JPY +429 pips, stopped out with trailing stop.
I've just bought EUR/JPY at 160.91 with a stop at 160.30, which is near the hot low for the month.There would have been a good buy for the GBP/CHF in the last two days down near the hot low for the month.
Do you keep trading the monthly hot highs and lows during the whole month or just at the beginning.One last question with regard to quarterly trades,can any quarter be traded or do you start your quarter at the beginning of the year?
Good morning.
Edge, please take into account the following points i developed for my trades, and hope they will fit your style and trading habits:

- EUR/JPY already this month went below the hot low(the low of the first 5/6 days, that was around 160.47), reaching 159.95. It is telling me that the relevant level was the hot high for this month. The hot low is non sense, so I would search for way to go short EURJPY during the month, at least until the pair will do a range of 550/600 pips. This is the average monthly range since 1999.

- I keep trading hot levels during the whole month, bearing in mond that almost always just one level will prove right for the month (or quarter, or week).

- Any quarter can be traded.
For the current one, EURUSD has potential hot level at 1.3529 and 1.3850 (1.3840 is also the hot high for this month, just close to the quarterly hot high, maybe we won't see higher levels before the end of the quarter. It all depends on 1.3529: will it hold?).
USDJPY set a hot high at 123.68 fo the current quarter.
GBPUSD: potentials 2.0058-2.0654

But more important, please please please please remember that paper/demo trading is DANGEROUS. For some mysterious reason everything works well with no real money. The markets behave perfectly, TP hit magically. Then with real money it' a Murphy's Law world!!!!!

Just a question: from where are you writing?
See U
  • #33
  • Aug 14, 2007 3:17am Aug 14, 2007 3:17am
Hi Vella

Just came across your thread today, I find the method very interesting. In one of the posts you refer to the table of historical ranges of the pairs which you trade, weekly monthly and quarterly, could you post the table please, it would be useful for setting the targets or avoiding stop and reverses.
Regards
  • #34
  • Aug 14, 2007 9:32am Aug 14, 2007 9:32am
Hi Vella!

Thanks a lot for sharing, your stuff is really, really interesting, because your method has either a statistical foundation and a rational one.

I'll need some days to better study it, and at least some of its nuances. At a first glance, it surely needs the developing of an advanced feeling for support/resistance levels.

At the moment I have a special interest for the weekly spots, since it is way easier for me to integrate them in my current intraday trading (4H and 1H). Sinergy at work!

Some fast visual backtesting looks very promising, if not great (but I know very well how easy can be being fooled by what just seems easy :-( ).

Since today is Tuesday, I started some real trades (VERY low exposure) just to wet my feet.

Have you some special tricks or warnings for the weekly trades?

Thanks again.

BTW: me too from Italy!
  • #35
  • Aug 14, 2007 9:46pm Aug 14, 2007 9:46pm
I got stopped out on my EUR/JPY trade, your advice has been taken.I am from New Zealand.
  • #36
  • Aug 16, 2007 12:51am Aug 16, 2007 12:51am
Quoting howard
Hi Vella

Just came across your thread today, I find the method very interesting. In one of the posts you refer to the table of historical ranges of the pairs which you trade, weekly monthly and quarterly, could you post the table please, it would be useful for setting the targets or avoiding stop and reverses.
Hi,
Howard, here attached a file with ranges.
Under column Min, Media (Average) and Strech U can find:

Min: at least 95% of the time (since January 1999) the pair did more than this number of pips/100.

Media: median range. Actually, this metric is a little different from the average. I decuded to use median and not average because is slightly more conservative in all of the pairs.

Strech: only less tha 5/8% of the time the pair do a wider range in the time frame.

Trim stands for Quarter.

Hope this help, don't hesitate to ask more.

P.S. The Steely Dan went in Italy this summer!!!!!!!!

Vella
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf foxbook_III_FF.pdf   9 KB | 631 downloads
  • #37
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:33am Aug 16, 2007 4:33am
Quoting Triton18
Hi Vella!

Thanks a lot for sharing, your stuff is really, really interesting, because your method has either a statistical foundation and a rational one.

I'll need some days to better study it, and at least some of its nuances. At a first glance, it surely needs the developing of an advanced feeling for support/resistance levels.

At the moment I have a special interest for the weekly spots, since it is way easier for me to integrate them in my current intraday trading (4H and 1H). Sinergy at work!

Some fast visual backtesting looks very promising, if not great (but I know very well how easy can be being fooled by what just seems easy :-( ).

Since today is Tuesday, I started some real trades (VERY low exposure) just to wet my feet.

Have you some special tricks or warnings for the weekly trades?

Thanks again.

BTW: me too from Italy!

Hi Triton18,
I think this is the wrong week to start trading a new approach!!!!
We are in the middle of a financial environment transition: the burst of a credit bubble (also called Minsky credit cycle), and perhaps supports, resistance, moving averages an so on won't work for a week or two more.

Anyway, find attached an excel (zipped) file with data for EURUSD, and the evidence that some 80% of the time the pair set a high or low for the week in the first 2 days at the aend of the spreadsheet there are some coloured cells).

The usual question: where are you from exactly?
I am in Milano

Cheers
Vella
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip HL_week.zip   222 KB | 542 downloads
  • #38
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:54pm Aug 16, 2007 1:54pm
"Hi Triton18,
I think this is the wrong week to start trading a new approach!!!!
We are in the middle of a financial environment transition: the burst of a credit bubble (also called Minsky credit cycle), and perhaps supports, resistance, moving averages an so on won't work for a week or two more."

I agree. Nevertheless, since USD/JPY is one of my preferred currencies, and since I supposed to be at the high of the week, I cannot complain about!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

More, for some quite-paper trades I am using Oanda. This evening I have been able to capture a screenshot of my account, magically skyrocketed at 264.763 million of dollars. Too bad I have some doubts I'll be allowed tomorrow to withdrawn even just one million or two....these pesky rules..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

"Anyway, find attached an excel (zipped) file with data for EURUSD, and the evidence that some 80% of the time the pair set a high or low for the week in the first 2 days at the aend of the spreadsheet there are some coloured cells)."

Thanks a lot.

The usual question: where are you from exactly?
I am in Milano"

I am in Genoa.

Bye!
  • #39
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:49am Aug 23, 2007 2:49am
This week the approach worked very well (up to now).
At least for EURUSD and EURJPY. On tuesday evening/night the markets gave the chance to enter on the low of the first two days of the week (1.346X and mid 153).
I placed an order to buy USDJPY too, but it was missed.
I am out now, of course too early, but with satisfying profit.

Cheers
  • #40
  • Sep 19, 2007 3:00am Sep 19, 2007 3:00am
Hi guys,
after a bad August for my approach (luckly most of the month i was either on holiday or looking for mortgages backed sec prices for my front office!!!!),
a great September is going on.
EURUSD: bought 1.3578, sold 1.3820, +242 pips (stop was @1.351)
USDJPY: bought 114.90, sold 114.52, -38 pips
USDCAD: sold 1.0560, bought 1.0322, +238 pips (stop was @1.0620)

Not enough stomach to trade Cable 1.0330 zone, betting on the hot high of the month!!!!

Not an avegarge month for sure!!!!

Let me see if you are trying to exploit this approach, and possibly to improve that.
Cheers
Vella
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