Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD and CAD Under Pressure: Markets Await Signals from Powell and the Fed


Commodity currencies, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars, remain under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, as investors await signals from Jerome Powell on the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Adding to the uncertainty were the recently released FOMC minutes: most Committee members expressed concern about accelerating inflation amid tariff policies and are not ready to rush into easing. At the same time, for the first time since 1993, two members advocated a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring fresh inflation data in Canada and US business activity indices, which could fuel volatility and provide short-term guidance for USD/CAD and AUD/USD

AUD/USD


The AUD/USD pair approached the July highs earlier this week. Technical analysis of AUD/USD suggests a possible strengthening of the downtrend should the pair firmly consolidate below 0.6400. On the daily timeframe, several bearish candlestick patterns (bearish engulfing and three black crows) have formed, with their completion potentially paving the way for a test of key support levels at 0.6340–0.6380. At the same time, sharp pullbacks and false breakouts of these levels could occur, with a subsequent return to 0.6440–0.6460. The pair has been declining for the second consecutive week, and given the corresponding fundamental backdrop, a corrective rebound remains possible.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD Holds Near Four-Month Low


As today’s NZD/USD chart shows, the pair is trading near a four-month low following a sharp decline. The drop occurred yesterday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.0% and indicated that the rate could fall further to 2.55% by May 2026.
According to Trading Economics:

- Analysts now expect at least two additional rate cuts before the end of the year;
- There is a risk of deeper cuts depending on incoming economic data.
New Zealand’s exports are also under pressure, particularly due to the 15% US tariffs that came into effect earlier this month, threatening to undermine the country’s competitiveness in key markets. According to Reuters, Citi analysts expect GDP to contract in the second quarter, raising the risk of a recession in New Zealand.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Shares Plunge Below $150


Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a company specialising in big data analytics software, delivered an unpleasant surprise to investors:
→ just last week, the stock was trading at its all-time high of around $190;
→ yesterday, the price collapsed below $150. At yesterday’s intraday low, PLTR stock had dropped almost 25% from its record peak.

Why Did Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Stock Fall?
Bearish sentiment may have been driven by:
→ capital rotation from risk assets into so-called defensive stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium (as we reported yesterday);
→ growing speculation that a “bubble” is forming in the technology sector, which could burst.
According to Investor’s Business Daily, Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, bet on downside in PLTR, arguing that the stock is severely overvalued following its phenomenal 340% rally in 2024.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Does Beta Mean in Stocks, and How May It Be Used in Risk Management?


Beta is a key measure of how a stock moves relative to the market, helping traders assess risk exposure and price volatility. Understanding this indicator can help traders analyse potential price swings and portfolio stability. This article explores how beta works, its implications, and how it may be used in risk analysis.

What Is Beta in Stocks and How Does It Affect Risk?
Beta is a statistical measure that quantifies how a stock’s price fluctuates relative to the broader market. It helps traders analyse systematic risk—the kind that affects most stocks at the same time, such as economic downturns or interest rate changes. The number itself comes from regression analysis, which compares a stock’s potential returns to a benchmark index like the FTSE 100 or S&P 500.

A beta of 1.0 indicates that a share generally tracks the movements of its benchmark index. If the index gains 5%, a stock with a value of 1.0 is likely to rise by about the same amount. A beta above 1 signals greater volatility—company shares with a beta of 1.8 may rise 9% when the market gains 5%, but they also tend to fall more sharply during downturns. A value below 1 suggests lower volatility, with the asset moving less than the broader index.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair’s Speech


On Monday, we:
→ noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating at the start of a week packed with key events;
→ outlined a descending channel (shown in red);
→ highlighted that the price was trading around the channel’s median line, signalling a balanced market;
→ suggested that a test of one of the quarter lines (QL or QH), which divide the channel into four parts, could take place.

As the DXY chart indicates, since then the balance has shifted in favour of buyers, with the price forming an upward trajectory (shown in purple lines) and breaking through short-term resistance R (which has now turned into support, as marked by the blue arrow). Support line S remains relevant.
Today brings the key event that may have the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) this week – Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

This appearance is particularly significant because:
→ it is likely to be Powell’s last speech after seven years as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May amid ongoing tensions with President Trump;
→ market participants will closely monitor the tone of his remarks, as a rate cut is expected in September, while recent economic data – namely the rise in the Producer Price Index – suggest that the US economy could face renewed inflationary pressures due to Trump’s tariffs.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FTSE 100 Index Closes at an All-Time High


Earlier, when analysing the chart of the UK’s FTSE 100 stock index (UK 100 on FXOpen), we outlined an ascending channel and anticipated a scenario with a continued upward trend and an attempt to establish a new historical high.
Since then:
→ The index has risen by almost 5%. The channel structure has shifted slightly, but not dramatically – after adjustment, it remains relevant given the latest price dynamics.
→ Yesterday, the stock index climbed to 9,325, thereby setting an all-time high.
Bullish sentiment was supported by news of a shrinking public sector deficit and increased private sector output. How might the situation develop further?


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Start Recovery, Key Hurdles Ahead


AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6415. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above 0.5900 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6415 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
2. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.5830.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5870 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6415. The Aussie Dollar started a significant increase above 0.6425 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6568 swing high to the 0.6415 low. The pair even surpassed 0.6470 and settled above the 50-hour simple moving average.
On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.6490. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.6520.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Australian Dollar Surges Sharply


As illustrated by the AUD/USD chart, while the pair was trading near a two-month low at the start of Friday, today it has jumped by more than 1.1%.

The primary driver behind this rally is the weakening US dollar, which reflects the market’s reaction to Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. He stated that the risks of declining employment are rising. And if these risks materialise, it could happen very quickly. According to Reuters, this strengthens the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting next month.

At the same time, market participants are preparing for the release of Australia’s CPI data, scheduled for this Wednesday.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?



Systematic risk affects all traders, no matter the strategy or asset class. It comes from market-wide forces—like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical shifts—that influence entire sectors at once. Unlike unsystematic risk, it can’t be avoided through diversification. This article breaks down what systematic risk is, how it’s measured, and how traders may incorporate it into their analysis.

What Is Systematic Risk?
Systematic risk refers to the kind of risk that affects entire markets or economies, rather than just individual assets. It’s the result of large-scale forces—like inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical conflict, or economic slowdowns—that ripple through multiple asset classes at once.
A sharp rise in interest rates, for example, tends to push bond prices lower and can drag down equity valuations as borrowing costs climb and consumer spending slows. Similarly, during a global event like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 shock in 2020, almost all sectors saw simultaneous drawdowns. These events weren’t tied to poor management or bad earnings reports—they were macro-level shifts that hit everything.
Because it’s a largely undiversifiable risk, systematic risk is a key consideration for traders assessing overall market exposure. It often drives correlation between assets, particularly in times of stress. This is why equities, commodities, and even currencies can start to move in the same direction during periods of heightened volatility.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Is It Possible to Define the Probability of an Effective Trade?



Traders are constantly trying to figure out the secret of effective trading. However, the inherent unpredictability of markets minimises the ability to accurately determine the probability of an effective trade. This FXOpen article focuses on the many variables that contribute to the dynamism and uncertainty of financial markets. Let’s consider why it is impossible to estimate the chance of lucky trade and what can be done instead.

Why Is Defining Trading Outcomes Difficult?
Trading involves a multitude of variables, which make it challenging to define the probability of an effective trade. Economic indicators, earnings reports, news releases, and geopolitical events all contribute to trading results.
Economic indicators that reflect the state of the economy are subject to revisions and unexpected changes. Geopolitical events, from political tensions to trade agreements, can quickly change the market trajectory. Market sentiment, influenced by news, social media, and psychological factors, introduces a human element that cannot be accurately quantified. That’s why it’s a challenge to define probability in trading.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dollar in Balance: Correction or the Start of a New Impulse?



The major dollar pairs, particularly USD/JPY and USD/CAD, remain in a zone of uncertainty. On Friday, the US currency came under pressure following the dovish rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he effectively opened the door to a potential rate cut as early as September. On Monday, the market saw a technical correction, though the move has yet to show resilience — the dynamics will largely depend on incoming data. An additional factor weighing on the greenback is concern over the Fed’s independence amid criticism from President Donald Trump, which further limits investor confidence in the dollar.
In the coming sessions, market participants will closely monitor US releases: consumer confidence index, regional Fed indices, as well as the updated GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed. These figures could determine the short-term trajectory: confirmation of economic weakness might strengthen expectations of an imminent rate cut, while stronger data might support the dollar and trigger a continuation of the corrective move.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to trade within the previously identified range of 146.60–148.60. On Friday, sellers attempted to break support at 146.60, but by Monday the price had stabilised above 147.00. Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates a sideways trading pattern. A firm move below 146.60 could open the way for a test of the nearest support levels at 145.80–146.20.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate Shows Increased Volatility


Powell’s speech on Friday had a distinctly dovish tone. Expectations of an interest rate cut strengthened, which led to a sharp weakening of the dollar — on the EUR/USD chart, a bullish impulse A→B was formed.

On Monday, as often happens after an initial emotional reaction to major news, the price corrected as market participants reassessed prospects in light of the Fed Chair’s softened rhetoric.

What is particularly notable is that the correction was most evident on the EUR/USD chart, where the decline B→C almost completely offset Friday’s surge. This could point to underlying weakness in the euro, which seems justified when considering that the euro index EXY (the euro’s performance against a basket of currencies) has risen by roughly 13% since the beginning of the year.
The EUR/USD rate reacted less strongly to the news that President Trump had decided to dismiss Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. While the media debates whether the President has the authority to remove her, traders may instead assess how EUR/USD could fluctuate following the A→B→C volatility swing.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nvidia (NVDA) Upcoming Earnings Report


Tomorrow after hours, Nvidia will release its quarterly report, attracting heightened attention given its position as:
→ the world’s largest company (market capitalisation of around $4.39 trillion);
→ a leader in the development of AI-related industries;
→ strong stock price performance — approximately +33% year-to-date, +108% from the yearly low.

Bullish Expectations
Analysts anticipate Nvidia will report revenue of around $46 billion, more than 50% higher than the same period last year.
Investors are counting on confirmation of robust demand for Nvidia’s chips from tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of which continue to expand capital expenditure on data centres to power AI workloads.
Further support for NVDA’s share price could come from positive news about demand for the new Blackwell chips and the resumption of sales in China following a recent agreement with the US government.

Bearish Concerns
Even strong results may fall short of “sky-high” optimistic expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking and a decline in Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price. The stock trades at a high P/E multiple (price-to-earnings ratio), making it vulnerable to any negative news or even a minor miss against forecasts.
The primary concern is that Nvidia’s forward guidance might point to a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending growth by its key clients. Any hint of this could negatively affect not only Nvidia’s shares but also the broader technology sector.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a San-Ku (Three Gaps) Pattern?


The intriguing and captivating San-Ku, or Three Gaps, pattern draws the curiosity of traders within financial markets. Its distinctive form and strategic placement on price charts make it a compelling subject for observation and analysis. This article aims to explore the intricacies of the San-Ku pattern, highlighting its importance and providing insights into how traders can incorporate it into their trading strategies.

What Is a Three Gaps (San-Ku) Pattern?
The San-Ku, or Three Gaps, pattern is a distinctive technical analysis formation characterised by three consecutive upward or downward price gaps. This pattern often signifies a significant shift in market sentiment and a potential trend reversal. Traders keen on spotting trend changes find the formation intriguing due to its clear visual representation on price charts.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls 2.8% from This Week’s High


As the XTI/USD chart shows, this morning (27 August) WTI crude oil is trading around the $63 level, although on Monday it climbed above $64.70. This means the price has retreated by approximately 2.8% from this week’s high.

The bearish momentum may be linked to the market’s reassessment of geopolitical risks. According to Reuters, US Special Representative Steve Witkoff stated that:
→ he will meet with a Ukrainian delegation in New York this week;

→ the US administration is also in talks with Russia, seeking to bring the war to an end.
He also noted that Washington is striving for de-escalation in the Middle East. We could assume that market participants are pricing in the possibility that these efforts could lead to the easing of sanctions and reduce risks and restrictions in global oil trade.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Prices Climb Again While WTI Crude Oil Faces Hurdles


Gold price climbed again and traded above $3,350. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $62.80.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price started a steady increase from $3,310 against the US Dollar.
2. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,378 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. Crude oil prices failed to clear the $65.00 region and started a fresh decline.
4. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $64.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near $3,310. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $3,330.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 and $3,378 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $3,395 before there was a pullback.
The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,321 swing low to the $3,395 high, and the RSI declined below 50. Initial support on the downside is near $3,378 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Boeing (BA) Share Price Could Reach 2025 Highs


As the Boeing (BA) stock chart indicates, the price rose by 3.5% yesterday, while the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) gained only 0.4%. Boeing’s stronger performance reflects optimism driven by news (and market rumours) reported in the media suggesting that:
→ Korean Air has purchased more than 100 aircraft during the newly elected South Korean president’s visit to the White House;
→ Boeing is negotiating the sale of 500 aircraft to China;
→ the Trump administration may acquire stakes in companies linked to the defence sector (Palantir, Boeing, Lockheed Martin).


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How to Trade a Break of a Trendline


Trading broken trendlines is a critical aspect of technical analysis. Understanding how to interpret and act upon the break of trendlines can make a significant difference to a trader's performance. This FXOpen article delves into the intricacies of trading broken trendlines, providing insights, strategies, and risk management techniques to help traders navigate this essential aspect of market analysis.

Understanding Trendlines
Although you know what trendlines are, let’s briefly go over the subject. Trendlines are foundational tools used in technical analysis to visualise the direction of price movements. Drawing accurate trendlines involves selecting the appropriate highs and lows to connect, so they provide a clear representation of the prevailing trend. According to the established rules, there should be at least two highs/lows to draw a strong trendline. The more points you connect, the more solid the line is supposed to be.
There are trendlines in forex, stock, commodity, index, and cryptocurrency* charts. Still, it may be easier to find trendlines on charts of assets experiencing less price volatility.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

European Currencies Hold Key Levels: Market in Search of New Signals


The major European currencies held their ground near key levels on Thursday. Following Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, the US dollar first fell sharply, then corrected higher on Monday, only to weaken again by midweek. Market reaction, however, remains uncertain: investors have yet to form a consensus on whether the dollar’s decline marks the continuation of a downtrend or if the current consolidation will develop into a new upward impulse for the greenback. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs have once again tested important levels but managed to rebound, maintaining a balance between supply and demand.

Market participants are now focused on the upcoming data releases from Europe and the United States. In the euro area, figures on consumer and business sentiment, inflation expectations, and business climate indices are due, which could adjust short-term forecasts for the euro. In the US, attention will centre on labour market and price dynamics – jobless claims, the GDP deflator, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be key indicators for assessing the Federal Reserve’s future policy trajectory. These publications could determine whether EUR/USD and USD/CHF remain within their current ranges or if the market is preparing for new impulses.

EUR/USD


Yesterday, sellers of the single European currency attempted to break key support at 1.1600. The price set a new August low, but the breakout proved false, and the pair returned to 1.1640. Technical analysis of EUR/USD indicates sideways trading between 1.1580 and 1.1740. A significant fundamental driver would be required to push the pair beyond this range.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Recovers from 20-Day Low



The EUR/USD pair today is moving under the influence of several factors:
Donald Trump’s decision to dismiss Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence;
expectations of a Fed rate cut in September;
anticipation of US GDP and jobless claims data (due today at 15:30 GMT+3);
the political crisis in France.
These and other drivers pushed the pair down to a 20-day low yesterday (with a local low L3 formed on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart), before it staged a firm recovery.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.