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The Swamp

  • #124,441
  • Aug 22, 2025 3:54pm Aug 22, 2025 3:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I was going to give it 1682/1556-1/2 above 1682. That broke down to 1745.. Missed it..
only small ones from 1735 and 1714 for me which i m not comfortable with. Will see how it develops next week.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,442
  • Aug 22, 2025 3:55pm Aug 22, 2025 3:55pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} only small ones from 1735 and 1714 for me which i m not comfortable with. Will see how it develops next week.
I was using a structure sequence.. like 1619 was. 63 pips above the R.
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  • #124,443
  • Aug 22, 2025 4:02pm Aug 22, 2025 4:02pm
my broker closed the week at 1.17165
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,444
  • Edited Aug 23, 2025 9:07am Aug 22, 2025 4:39pm | Edited Aug 23, 2025 9:07am
Quoting johncen
my broker closed the week at 1.17165
It may need to touch 1682ish.. To test for support or fail.
It dont have a flag look.. just a pole..
Its above the monthly structure. Even when the cut outlook was 80 and 90%.. It was retracing before. If its higher 100% now. That's not really much change. Now most indicators are bullish. Keep an eye on 1683. If its chained to it, 1745 could be the chain length.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,445
  • Aug 23, 2025 8:58am Aug 23, 2025 8:58am
Friday before the spike 80-90% cut chance. The market expected a rate cut next month. Powell's announcement added to the chance's, noted by spike. If the drop was a dump before the news. I can see it going up further. Was it a dump, is the question for me. Because 80-90 or 100%, it was priced in mostly already? If it was, it will slip hard again. First it would take 1682 later 1637 or 1599. That's 122 from the close. My indicators 4h and above never turned bearish. The spike has those bullish too. Even structure wise pa is above those mentioned. Thats a lot of bullish signs. The one thing about structured is. Pa tends to find a limit above them on spikes. When the limit gets stretched. Pa tends to pull pa back to the structure. Next week Friday will end the month. 80-100% what's the difference? The rate cut was expected. It was expected when it dropped to 158x. It was expected on the spike. The structure expected a drop to 1556 area before the news. It missed. If it gets back into the structure. It may want to test 1556. Bulls need to try to maintain larger closes above 1682 mostly.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,446
  • Aug 23, 2025 3:06pm Aug 23, 2025 3:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
Friday before the spike 80-90% cut chance. The market expected a rate cut next month. Powell's announcement added to the chance's, noted by spike. If the drop was a dump before the news. I can see it going up further. Was it a dump, is the question for me. Because 80-90 or 100%, it was priced in mostly already? If it was, it will slip hard again. First it would take 1682 later 1637 or 1599. That's 122 from the close. My indicators 4h and above never turned bearish. The spike has those bullish too. Even structure wise pa is above those mentioned....
even if not now when rate cut actually comes i am expecting the drop to begin. Key is we cannot have a higher high
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,447
  • Aug 23, 2025 4:05pm Aug 23, 2025 4:05pm
If we sustained above 1682 maybe bear is gone
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  • #124,448
  • Aug 24, 2025 6:50pm Aug 24, 2025 6:50pm
Quoting johncen
If we sustained above 1682 maybe bear is gone
I aint saying shit.. All my indicators are bullish. I dont think it could reach 1599 tonight without a good reason. But 1637 I give about a 20% chance. See if it test 1682.. And see what it does after.
The month structure is there. the week is there. even 1599 is valid still.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,449
  • Aug 24, 2025 8:38pm Aug 24, 2025 8:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I aint saying shit.. All my indicators are bullish. I dont think it could reach 1599 tonight without a good reason. But 1637 I give about a 20% chance. See if it test 1682.. And see what it does after. The month structure is there. the week is there. even 1599 is valid still.
I belive room for further up is probably limited but we need some push to start a down trend. So yea we. Lets wait for a test to 1682 to see

thank you Gator as always
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,450
  • Aug 25, 2025 4:30am Aug 25, 2025 4:30am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Still waiting to see s signal after reaching 1735/8. I need it to see a topping. Before it, I can't go short except some scalpers. It may go higher. 1750 is another one to me. Between 1735 and 1750 is tough. It can still go higher above 1750. But the zone is a place to looking for a long-term short probably. It worth waiting for me and trying to catch a top. It's about R/R.
Ok. Now we are in the zone. But nothing looks bearish here. I can start selling after seeing valid signs of weakness. 1750 is still alive. So another option is to wait for it. 1735 is already met missing 1750. So it may fall before 1750. Is it going to fall? I don't know.
Let's see...
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  • #124,451
  • Aug 25, 2025 4:32am Aug 25, 2025 4:32am
It looks like a little drop on open. it may test 1682
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,452
  • Aug 25, 2025 5:27am Aug 25, 2025 5:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I aint saying shit.. All my indicators are bullish. I dont think it could reach 1599 tonight without a good reason. But 1637 I give about a 20% chance. See if it test 1682.. And see what it does after. The month structure is there. the week is there. even 1599 is valid still.
82 and 37 structure remains
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,453
  • Edited 5:53am Aug 25, 2025 5:41am | Edited 5:53am
My problem is the day structure turned bullish. Most of our larger trending indicators are bullish. Using that, A long is the better trade.. My month and week do not agree. R/R wise a stop below 1682 could be better long. But the month and week structure do not agree.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,454
  • Aug 25, 2025 5:48am Aug 25, 2025 5:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may need to touch 1682ish.. To test for support or fail. It dont have a flag look.. just a pole.. Its above the monthly structure. Even when the cut outlook was 80 and 90%.. It was retracing before. If its higher 100% now. That's not really much change. Now most indicators are bullish. Keep an eye on 1683. If its chained to it, 1745 could be the chain length. {image}
More flag looking now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,455
  • Aug 25, 2025 5:51am Aug 25, 2025 5:51am
Quoting gatorinla
My problem it the day structure turned bullish. Most of our larger trending indicators are bullish. Using that, A long is the better trade.. My month and week do not agree. R/R wise a stop below 1682 could be better long. But the month and week structure do not agree.
Sustained below 1682 can reach 1637, and reverse Friday. It could test 1556. 1682 is important
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,456
  • Aug 25, 2025 6:14am Aug 25, 2025 6:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Sustained below 1682 can reach 1637, and reverse Friday. It could test 1556. 1682 is important
yea it is critical for both sides! First attempt failed and 1682 remain untouched for now. But i would not expect one attempt to bring us below 1682. Bull will defend it.

its still bullish with bullish flag in play. Reminds me of the Monday-Tuesday after NFP. Ranging and a drop near 1530 but unable to sustained below 1550 then we go further up.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,457
  • Aug 25, 2025 8:56am Aug 25, 2025 8:56am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea it is critical for both sides! First attempt failed and 1682 remain untouched for now. But i would not expect one attempt to bring us below 1682. Bull will defend it. its still bullish with bullish flag in play. Reminds me of the Monday-Tuesday after NFP. Ranging and a drop near 1530 but unable to sustained below 1550 then we go further up.
It was close. Close enough to take a trade. 1717/18 attracting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,458
  • Aug 25, 2025 9:35am Aug 25, 2025 9:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It was close. Close enough to take a trade. 1717/18 attracting.
No attraction today? time is short
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,459
  • Aug 25, 2025 1:53pm Aug 25, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} She made it to 1619.. Now where? {image}
Now 1619 again from above.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,460
  • Edited 2:09pm Aug 25, 2025 1:54pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Now 1619 again from above. {image}
bear did so well today slicing through 1682 and 1637
wow
bear momemtum is strong and slicing through 1619 as well
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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