Index Room (US500 & US100)

(30/07)

No trade yesterday due to load of RED FOLDER NEWS

(31/07)

Bullish BIAS today, last day of the month let's hope to close out strong. Outcomes of News were good for both Indexes, so am happy with that. Just need to see the bullish order flow confirm and we'll be in the money.

A+ setup gone to ashes as there was nothing to confirm price switching to bullish order flow. Looked amazing but did not give us the confirmation we were looking for.

No trade today.

US500 near ~6295 support test

01/08

Don't think will trade today, just depends on the setup to be fair. Bearish BIAS today, a lot of liquidity left on the downside to take so will be aiming towards those areas. Only thing is to worry about is News later.

How can you revise a figure to a -90% drop.
Crazy.

01/08

No trade all week. DAMN that's crazy from me. Will see what we can get next week Monday, am hoping for some good PA and no bullshit like this weeks.
Looking over it, there was maybe 1 or 2 trades that were viable however one was a shit RR and the other was against my BIAS so are we wrong for not taking them ?

Of course not, we are looking to survive these markets, not be one hit wonders.

Take care guys.

04/08

Absolutely awesome PA today. Simple continuation day, waited for a close on NASDAQ to actually confirm the bullish order flow for today's move for price to move up to HTMF's POI's and so on.

Trade was on S&P because it had not yet taken LDN's High, few more confirmations were hit but cba to type all that shit out.


TP1 banked, SL to BE.

05/08

Today was ranging, did not want to trade today unless price action showed me clear signs of a bearish or bullish move. There was more Bearish Price Action today but to be honest I didn't really want to trade inside of the range. Not a very clear day in my opinion, so there was no point risking profit made from yesterday for today's nonsense.

Anyone take a trade today ?

05/08

I had a similar experience to yours today. I took one risky trade which I must admit was a bit forced made 23 pips. And that's enough for today, Im still learning and don't want to overthink things.

06/08

Today was mad. I shouldn't of traded but I was super clear of being BULLISH even though the price action looks to be mainly BEARISH. I had my confluences and went in the trade. I took 2 trades today, one I lost on sp500, on a BUY towards LDN High's and so fourth, then I had seen another opportunity which looked great to get in for another BUY, so took the trade with a decreased lot size of 50% and went in. Price hit my TP1 quite quickly and then I had moved to BE and was immediately stopped out. Managed to recoup a good percentage of the loss taken. I am now 30% still down. Not gonna trade anymore today due to tense Market Structure. Whilst I am writing this price is going towards my Take Profit Levels....... - Just My Luck : (

(stopped on the black candle to the downside)

Very unfortunate, but it is what it is. We move onto tomorrow : )

07/08

I did not trade today because I was super busy with family stuff, but damn I missed a great sell on Nasdaq. Everything was there and perfect, its okay we move.

08/08

Might not even trade today, price action looks ass. Will update later like always if trade was taken or not.

08/08

This was the trade that I would've taken today had I not been busy looking at Instagram lol, was bearish beforehand due to a shift in MS (in PRE-MARKET), when market opened I wanted to see the bearish PA being respected by the gaps of continuation given from an impulse move to the downside. It was disrespected on NASDAQ, so I wanted to see the same thing happen on S&P. Once that was seen from numerous points in the smaller timeframes I would've taken the trade to go LONG and have a TP at the next available HIGHS.

Was a great trade but my mind was focused on Instagram ffs. I guess it is what it is. Have a great weekend guys : )

(11/08 - 15/08)

0 trades this whole week, not saying there was not any entries, but because of heavy NEWS I did not trade + I was a bit ill too. Onto this new week, I'm feeling refreshed and ready to take it on and hope you guys are too.

See you tomorrow, take care.

18/08

Yesterday was a weird day, No News Monday, not much really going on. Was ideally looking at BUYS for both nas & sp. Saw an entry and entered on it on the picture below. Price went to the last high and then reversed, taking me out at my entry. Not sure what else to say, think I got lucky because I took the trade after both sets of liquidity were taken.

Luck was on my side yesterday, don't trade like this. If it takes both sets of liquidity, just take a day off. : )

19/08

Trump talking today, not sure if I will trade due to price being in consolidation, might take a look at something else.

20/08

No trade yesterday, PA was not that good + price went against BIAS so did not trade.

Today was great, picture below. Price was in a Downtrend, easy to see, was just waiting for bearish order flow to come back as there was a retracement happening in LDN session. Pre-M gave nice confluences on both index's. NAS already made it's way down so just waited for SP to show me an entry and I went in on the lower TMF's. Full TP's hit.

No runners left, price hit full TP whilst I was typing this up, we cool anyways.

See ya tomorrow

21/08

Did want to trade yesterday, however I was not able to jump into the LONGS that I had wanted on NASDAQ. There were quite a few BULLISH confluences however I was just too slow in being able to get in. Price took remaining bottom - side liquidity and the rest was at the top so of course it was a high probability that it would go up there anyways. Target would've been to the 1H high for TP1 and then the rest to go for higher highs, but it did not really work out and stalled. Anyways not gonna trade today (22/08), because of the powell and trump speech, but I am bullish so do with that what you will.

Have a good weekend guys.

After spending the past year backtesting on forex almost every single day for hours and live trading with demo account for over 7 months, I have decided to faze out of just blind strategy application with forex+macro and move onto the indices, with a risk centric approach. Id love to see you update this thread, I might make some updates down the line of my own viewpoints. I have come up with a really robust system which was able to perform during the bearish years of 2022 a bit of 2020/18 and 2008. I thought Id just jump in with some of my insight to the indices coming from forex.

It seems the AUDCHF, AUDJPY and AUDUSD, maybe even NZDCHF have some incredibly potent potential and correlation with the indices, more so the VXN. VIX shows us equity risk and US centered risk, but with the nasdaq's VXN being tied to technology and growth, it's is more sensitive to global sentiment and thus more applicable to the forex market. Coming to the indices, I've started to appreciate the idea of constant directionality towards the upside. What I've noticed is that these pairs consistently move down, opposite to the SP500. Furthermore they sell even harder on fear, not greed, completely opposing the indices which is deeply rewarding in bear markets like 2022, 2008 etc. It allows us to short the Sp500 without going against the risk premium of the average annualised 7% growth. AUD being risk asset, the rest being safe havens, shorting those pairs during bear markets has incredible return. It also has to do with CHF being so well controlled by their fed equivalent. For as long as Switzerland intends to keep its inflation to near zero, the markets will keep moving down during pairings. If we ever get into some bear markets in the hopefully not to near future, it should offer incredible potential to reap rewards, the hardest part is recognising when you are in which type of market, to which I will use my own indicator on a very large Weekly timeframe.

After backtesting for a few days now I haven't really ever come across such a simple and robust way of thinking about the market. Its starting to make sense. Money flows into the indices with general hope and expectation of return, they offer the most consistent stable returns for most people. When risk increases people buy safe haven currencies, sell off indices and risky currencies like the aud drops. Even just recently with Powells dovish speech at the Symposium earlier today, we saw a big move on AUDUSD suggesting some correlation, with a decent sized 4 hour correction. This would of wiped out a lot of macro traders betting against the weak dollar. My trades are going to be rare and until the end of the year they will be on demo but Ill be glad to share some of my insight if I ever notice something.