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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #7,101
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:12pm Aug 13, 2007 10:12pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
correct mate-- just that i dont think the fundies will support that atm-- i still see 233 region being hit first--
now wheres my crystal ball---damn that thing!
as it is , I'm 90% sure the pair will break the weekly support by next week... but after a good retracemnt to collect some fire power
  • #7,102
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:16pm Aug 13, 2007 10:16pm
You know that I believe the fundementals will not allow GJ to go very high. I think it was very telling that the US stock market did not rally today. That market would go up during a nuclear war. There are a lot of very worried rich people out there trying to secure their money. I predict you are going to see a short-term strengthening of the dollar, as people try to secure assets in dollar-backed securities.

Considering that I believe the ultimate fate of the dollar is to become toilet paper, it is saying something when I believe the dollar will strengthen.
  • #7,103
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:18pm Aug 13, 2007 10:18pm
Aus, are you thinking a retracement to the 239.30 area, or higher?
  • #7,104
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:24pm Aug 13, 2007 10:24pm
Quoting markam

Considering that I believe the ultimate fate of the dollar is to become toilet paper, it is saying something when I believe the dollar will strengthen.
Ummm.. not too sure about that statement... economies usually have 5 year cycles. US had a very good last 5 years, this 5 years the US economy is nuetral and the next 5 years it the recession and neutral again for the following 5 years and after that its the boom again. Just my thought
  • #7,105
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:25pm Aug 13, 2007 10:25pm
Quoting markam
You know that I believe the fundementals will not allow GJ to go very high. I think it was very telling that the US stock market did not rally today. That market would go up during a nuclear war. There are a lot of very worried rich people out there trying to secure their money. I predict you are going to see a short-term strengthening of the dollar, as people try to secure assets in dollar-backed securities.

Considering that I believe the ultimate fate of the dollar is to become toilet paper, it is saying something when I believe the dollar will strengthen.

On the 6 hr and longer charts, I completely agree with you, re GJ not rising a hell of a lot from here.... But on some of the shorter-term charts - particularly 4 hr and 1 hr on my system.... well, it does look pretty scary in the short term, in terms of the possibility of their being a vicious very short-term jump upwards.
  • #7,106
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:28pm Aug 13, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting markam
Aus, are you thinking a retracement to the 239.30 area, or higher?
237.46 is my target... if it goes above that we are back to the crappy ranging zone again.
  • #7,107
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:34pm Aug 13, 2007 10:34pm

as far as i can see if GU close 4H candle at current level is a sign for upward move...any suggestion about UJ?

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #7,108
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:36pm Aug 13, 2007 10:36pm
we are at 237.46
Losers Complain, Winners Train! Utah
  • #7,109
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:36pm Aug 13, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting auslanco
237.46 is my target... if it goes above that we are back to the crappy ranging zone again.
looks like we are almost in that range already, think its heading back to ranging?
  • #7,110
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:38pm Aug 13, 2007 10:38pm
Looking at GU,UJ and GJ ... all thee pairs are starving for a good upward retracemnt before it shoots down. Don't get me wrong, I don't favor longs. I'm out of the market. This is what I can see on my charts
  • #7,111
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:41pm Aug 13, 2007 10:41pm
Quoting sdot
looks like we are almost in that range already, think its heading back to ranging?
if the price establish around 237.70 (4hr 5sma) it will be very much ranging.
  • #7,112
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:42pm Aug 13, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting auslanco
Looking at GU,UJ and GJ ... all thee pairs are starving for a good upward retracemnt before it shoots down. Don't get me wrong, I don't favor longs. I'm out of the market. This is what I can see on my charts
Have u ever felt that One can make accurate analysis if One is not involved in actual trading. Maybe because that person is not stressed and biased by any emotions...
  • #7,113
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:48pm Aug 13, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting webstakes
Have u ever felt that One can make accurate analysis if One is not involved in actual trading. Maybe because that person is not stressed and biased by any emotions...
Always...Human nature I guess. yesterday I saw people who went short on last Friday were praying for the price to go down yesterday. Yesterday when I realized that I pulled the trigger too quickly, I was praying the price to go up But today.. no postions.. I feel like a forex Rumbo
  • #7,114
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:49pm Aug 13, 2007 10:49pm

make sense...but also ONE not making a good analysis due to no passion of the trade

Quoting webstakes
Have u ever felt that One can make accurate analysis if One is not involved in actual trading. Maybe because that person is not stressed and biased by any emotions...

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #7,115
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:50pm Aug 13, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting auslanco
Ummm.. not too sure about that statement... economies usually have 5 year cycles. US had a very good last 5 years, this 5 years the US economy is nuetral and the next 5 years it the recession and neutral again for the following 5 years and after that its the boom again. Just my thought

The dollar has had a good 35 year run because commodities (especially oil) are traded in dollars. As a result, every country has held either dollars or treasury bonds as the reserve currency. This has allowed us to greatly increase our money supply and spend a lot more money than we have. The good 5 years you are looking at are simply the fact that we are increasing our money supply at about a trillion dollar per year rate.

This game has only one outcome. You cannot exponentially increase your money supply forever. The end of an exponential growth curve is always a crash. Americans cannot increase their debt load any further, and foreign countries cannot take and hold any more of our currency/debt. The only reason it hasn't crashed already is that the collapse of the dollar will probably collapse every other major currency.

I believe that the first major effect of peak oil will be the collapse of the global currency system, triggered by the US dollar. The currency system will reform and recover, but trillions and trillions of dollars worth of assets will simply disapear. They were IOUs that america wrote to the rest of the world that we can never repay.

I used to believe that this crash was at least 5 years away, but I have moved my prediction up to end of 2008 at the latest.
  • #7,116
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:50pm Aug 13, 2007 10:50pm
In my way of seeing things - which doubtless seems weird or perhaps stupid to you guys, but which serves me pretty well - MA730, which is being slowly forced to turn the corner and bend downwards (representing a major strategic event, which will lead to a massive GJ drop soon), is continuing to 'soften'.

In more normal circumstances, the rule of thumb would be wait for parallel or near-parallel with MA550 above it to be reached, and if there is any major pair of twins pulling it down - then price will suddenly drop hard and fast, with a vengeance. It's effectively a 'tipping point' representation.

Having said that, a very short-term very sharp rise such as Aus is predicting, can't be ruled out at all - but I think if that happens, it will be very short-term.

Just my 2 cents' worth, anyway. (I don't know why I keep posting these graphs, which no one seems interested in anyway - but this approaching 'tipping point' is something I've been looking forward to for the last 4 weeks or so - so it's interesting for me, anyway!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,117
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:58pm Aug 13, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting markam
The dollar has had a good 35 year run because commodities (especially oil) are traded in dollars. As a result, every country has held either dollars or treasury bonds as the reserve currency. This has allowed us to greatly increase our money supply and spend a lot more money than we have. The good 5 years you are looking at are simply the fact that we are increasing our money supply at about a trillion dollar per year rate.

This game has only one outcome. You cannot exponentially increase your money supply forever. The end of an exponential growth curve is always a crash. Americans cannot increase their debt load any further, and foreign countries cannot take and hold any more of our currency/debt. The only reason it hasn't crashed already is that the collapse of the dollar will probably collapse every other major currency.

I believe that the first major effect of peak oil will be the collapse of the global currency system, triggered by the US dollar. The currency system will reform and recover, but trillions and trillions of dollars worth of assets will simply disapear. They were IOUs that america wrote to the rest of the world that we can never repay.

I used to believe that this crash was at least 5 years away, but I have moved my prediction up to end of 2008 at the latest.
Lets hope that the dollar wont collapse.. If it does I cant imagine what will happen to the world economy. If US collapse I'm sure Japan , china and Europe economies also will be 8ft under.
  • #7,118
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:01pm Aug 13, 2007 11:01pm
Richard, I am sure that people are very interested in your analysis. I am very curious to see if you are right.

Hell, I keep writing about the collapse of civilization, so at least you are on topic for this thread.
  • #7,119
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:03pm Aug 13, 2007 11:03pm
Quoting auslanco
Lets hope that the dollar wont collapse.. If it does I cant imagine what will happen to the world economy. If US collapse I'm sure Japan , china and Europe economies also will be 8ft under.
it is what will be called a one world currency. I believe everyone here is on the right path and this is what everything will be moved to. Laugh now, but this is the direction we are headed.
  • #7,120
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:04pm Aug 13, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting Richardj
!
I hope there will be a big fall or rise soon. Getting sick of the ranging market
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