Took forever to get to target +250 with a small lotsize.
If we get Daily Bear support then my next target is the next one down.
If we get Daily Bear support then my next target is the next one down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Trading the Cable swings via averages
- #10,502
- Jul 15, 2025 12:36am Jul 15, 2025 12:36am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Took forever to get to target +250 with a small lotsize. If we get Daily Bear support then my next target is the next one down. {image}
Still working with the 15 min chart (below) producing good results with one stopout loss so far out of 13 trades.
PS. I don't take all these, usually just the first one.
- #10,503
- Jul 24, 2025 5:17am Jul 24, 2025 5:17am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Testing other pairs and times and so far, findings are very similar for wedges.
This is the 5 min EUR/USD...
This is the 5 min EUR/USD...
- #10,504
- Jul 25, 2025 11:36pm Jul 25, 2025 11:36pm
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
OK, it is still too early in the testing stage, but I think it is time to put some of the findings into text.
Still dealing with the EUR/USD here, 15 min chart.
The first thing I see is that there is little to no difference in these structures to the GBP/USD.
So how do we deal with them in the context of Timing, Signal, Stop, Target and Money Management?
Here is the chart...
What do we see?
Here the conflict in sentiment is from the swing low of B and the swing high of A. At B the bulls are winning and at A the bears are winning, the conflict is projected to C forming a wedge triangle. It would be a mistake to take the trade as being the breakout, the trade started with the price being in HD of A. This covers the Timing, Signal and the Stop placed just above A to take the trade. The rest forms the target and where we can adjust our entries for the Money Management.
Once the target is reached it does so in a Bull Div. If we have not made our profit target by this stage, we may take this as a long entry to make up the difference.
We know the target is going to be greater than the distance B to A which in this case was about 26 pips. If our MM calls for a profit of $50 then we need to place a $2 short trade at the HD and we would be risking about $10 with our stop just above A. As the trade progresses our stop is moved to BE, but our target is now expanded to D which is about 50 pips in essence doubling our profit to $100 even if we don't add more entries. This is a 10:1 outcome in 5.5 hours.
Once we have located the target it becomes our close and our stop is still BE+1. This means we no longer have to observe the charts, we either win, or we win sweating on the trade is not going to make any difference to these outcomes.
Any questions?
Still dealing with the EUR/USD here, 15 min chart.
The first thing I see is that there is little to no difference in these structures to the GBP/USD.
So how do we deal with them in the context of Timing, Signal, Stop, Target and Money Management?
Here is the chart...
What do we see?
Here the conflict in sentiment is from the swing low of B and the swing high of A. At B the bulls are winning and at A the bears are winning, the conflict is projected to C forming a wedge triangle. It would be a mistake to take the trade as being the breakout, the trade started with the price being in HD of A. This covers the Timing, Signal and the Stop placed just above A to take the trade. The rest forms the target and where we can adjust our entries for the Money Management.
Once the target is reached it does so in a Bull Div. If we have not made our profit target by this stage, we may take this as a long entry to make up the difference.
We know the target is going to be greater than the distance B to A which in this case was about 26 pips. If our MM calls for a profit of $50 then we need to place a $2 short trade at the HD and we would be risking about $10 with our stop just above A. As the trade progresses our stop is moved to BE, but our target is now expanded to D which is about 50 pips in essence doubling our profit to $100 even if we don't add more entries. This is a 10:1 outcome in 5.5 hours.
Once we have located the target it becomes our close and our stop is still BE+1. This means we no longer have to observe the charts, we either win, or we win sweating on the trade is not going to make any difference to these outcomes.
Any questions?
- #10,505
- Jul 26, 2025 9:25am Jul 26, 2025 9:25am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Oh! dear me, I have made a mistake in the drawing above. That's what happens when I keep drawing and testing to seek answers. The breakout was earlier than this because I have moved the BC line from its origin. The story of the trade is all good though but let me introduce you to a new mystery...
Is there a fibo relationship from the points B to A. If I make A the 0 level and B the 100 level (magenta fib), guess what the D level becomes from the breakout (yellow fib copy)
Check this out...
This is something else I have to add into the testing mix.
Is there a fibo relationship from the points B to A. If I make A the 0 level and B the 100 level (magenta fib), guess what the D level becomes from the breakout (yellow fib copy)
Check this out...
This is something else I have to add into the testing mix.
- #10,506
- Jul 28, 2025 9:36am Jul 28, 2025 9:36am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
This time looking at the swing high A and the swing low B on the 1 hour. 
Price has made the 1.5 x aB.
Still waiting to see if it makes the 161.8 of AB from the breakout.
Price has made the 1.5 x aB.
Still waiting to see if it makes the 161.8 of AB from the breakout.
- #10,508
- Aug 3, 2025 11:55pm Aug 3, 2025 11:55pm
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
A lot of days to move +330. {image}
I cannot for the life of me find any relationship to my daily chart, mine is so different from yours.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I am giving up on the FIB it doesn't help me at all and just serves to add more work for no reward.
Stick to what I know me thinks. As they say if it isn't broken why mend it.
Fridays NFP was a beauty beginning with a bull div at the average swing low and bang straight up to the 4hr average.
Price still hasn't broken the 4hr average yet though and all the EMA's are converging so for me not a good place to make an entry.
- #10,513
- Sep 10, 2025 8:47am Sep 10, 2025 8:47am
Hello Alan, can i ask how will you trade GU today ?
My inference (at the trade time) is like this:
H1 is DIV bear, price break through EMA and build support bear --> we have chance for price to attack down to 3430.
M15 is DIV bull, it build support bull so we have chance attack price up to 3575.
We are price above H4 EMA, it cross EMA H4 and close strong bull body. But it could be AB=CD move since we have DIV bear on H4, price can cross or break through it.
With signal conflict between TF, how will you choose which side as main trend to trade ??
My inference (at the trade time) is like this:
H1 is DIV bear, price break through EMA and build support bear --> we have chance for price to attack down to 3430.
M15 is DIV bull, it build support bull so we have chance attack price up to 3575.
We are price above H4 EMA, it cross EMA H4 and close strong bull body. But it could be AB=CD move since we have DIV bear on H4, price can cross or break through it.
With signal conflict between TF, how will you choose which side as main trend to trade ??
- #10,515
- Sep 10, 2025 9:18pm Sep 10, 2025 9:18pm
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Maybe this will also be of help...
Look at the general market and see if we are making HH's or LL's...
This can tell us a lot about the market as to if a currency is strong across the board.
Look at the general market and see if we are making HH's or LL's...
This can tell us a lot about the market as to if a currency is strong across the board.
- #10,517
- Sep 11, 2025 1:35am Sep 11, 2025 1:35am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
{quote} Thanks, Alan! I finally get what you mean by "EMAs converging." You've mentioned it before, but it didn't click until now. So, what about today? Do you think the EMAs are still converging since the price hasn't broken out of the H4 EMA yet? Should we wait for a breakout of H4 EMA for better trading opportunities? For inference GU: The trend is clearly down side. H1 and M15-30 have bear support and price go down. Maybe H1 will come down to 3430. But M15 seem like finish EMA target and may change side? We also still stuck above EMA H4, RSI...
We should be trying to get in close to the beginning of the move, currently we are looking at a point where a convergence is likely, so we wait.
Note this is the 15 min chart so it is the 15min EMA I am looking at compared to the others.
- #10,518
- Sep 11, 2025 10:57am Sep 11, 2025 10:57am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
For the last couple of weeks I have been trading the usd/jpy just for the sake of having a change.
I must say I am finding this pair very challenging, it is so erratic in its behavior. The dragon bucks a lot.
I think part of the problem is that it is active in the Asian session so the 108 bar doesn't mean as much.
It does however react to the EMA levels similar to the GBP/USD. Take a look at the set of trades below. One didn't make the target, but it did make the 40 pips required...
One advantage of this pair is that it cost me $10 less per micro lot so I can get more mini lots on when it is right to do so.
I must say I am finding this pair very challenging, it is so erratic in its behavior. The dragon bucks a lot.
I think part of the problem is that it is active in the Asian session so the 108 bar doesn't mean as much.
It does however react to the EMA levels similar to the GBP/USD. Take a look at the set of trades below. One didn't make the target, but it did make the 40 pips required...
One advantage of this pair is that it cost me $10 less per micro lot so I can get more mini lots on when it is right to do so.
- #10,519
- Sep 11, 2025 11:30pm Sep 11, 2025 11:30pm
{quote} I mean like this... {image} We should be trying to get in close to the beginning of the move, currently we are looking at a point where a convergence is likely, so we wait. Note this is the 15 min chart so it is the 15min EMA I am looking at compared to the others.
I will use M15, i saw we have 6 chances.
At 1: REG DIV --> push EMA down and EMA tangle --> no trade (or we should trade as EMA tangle signal EMA spread out --> big chance win ?)
2-3 is Similar ?
4: we have HD bear here. But EMA tangle --> still no trade
Next day
5: The short should spread EMA --> we can short (target too short, around 18 pip, not worthy ?)
6: DIV bull here can make EMA tangle --> no trade ? (unless hedge if i entry on trade 5)
This is what you mean by EMA "convergence"