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  • #2,361
  • Aug 20, 2025 11:29am Aug 20, 2025 11:29am
These weeks I can’t follow nasdaq. Today they played dump pump.
  • #2,362
  • Aug 20, 2025 11:32am Aug 20, 2025 11:32am
My planed sell entry. Sl very tight, as I don‘t like the nasdaq today
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  • #2,363
  • Aug 20, 2025 11:35am Aug 20, 2025 11:35am
Here are my two potentials entries: Buy and Sell.
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  • #2,364
  • Aug 20, 2025 12:07pm Aug 20, 2025 12:07pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Da perspectiva macroeconômica, os dados mais recentes confirmaram uma desaceleração econômica e inflação mais alta (IPP e NFP). Apenas IA e semicondutores estavam impulsionando o NQ cada vez mais. A próxima Cúpula do FED e, mais importante, de Jackson Hole, dará sinal verde para qualquer direção: 1- Um corte na taxa de juros será muito positivo para o NQ e uma nova máxima histórica será a meta; 2- Sem corte na taxa de juros, a caixa amarela será a meta. Até lá, o preço se manterá na mínima da semana passada (linha azul). {image} Portanto,...
I really appreciate your explanation, which clarified my doubts.
Best regards
  • #2,365
  • Aug 20, 2025 12:10pm Aug 20, 2025 12:10pm
Quoting Fadhl
Here are my two potentials entries: Buy and Sell. {image}
As I got a green candle that closed above a red candle, I entered at different level with different STP.
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  • #2,366
  • Aug 20, 2025 12:19pm Aug 20, 2025 12:19pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} As I got a green candle that closed above a red candle, I entered at different level with different STP. {image}
I don't like the price behavior making a LH; hence I closed it with a few.
Main direction is south.
  • #2,367
  • Aug 21, 2025 7:48am Aug 21, 2025 7:48am
Good day!
PMI Services and Manufacturing data is coming.
Usually, bad data is bad for Equities/Nq and vice-versa, but this time market might have an opposite view as also bad data favors rate cut and free money.
22668 might be the limit for this week.
  • #2,368
  • Aug 21, 2025 8:53am Aug 21, 2025 8:53am
Data came very green!
Market is so far undecided... Direction is unclear... I'll trade the breakout and retest of the 5min strategy. Price is inside the OR.
  • #2,369
  • Aug 22, 2025 7:23am Aug 22, 2025 7:23am
Good Friday!
We've an important speech today from Powell. I invite you to watch it live.
During the last recent years of speeches in The Jackson Hole Symposiums, NQ moved down for an average of 500-600 points.
Market were expecting Powell to give hints on rate cuts, but he did not; US economy was strong with maximum employment and inflation was softening... As a consequence, market sold of NQ.
This year, we'll have the same story: Market is seeking a hint on rate cut for September meeting as the US economy is slowing down, but on the other hand inflation is picking up. So, what Powell can say while we know he's going to leave the FED soon and Trump is making pressure?
Two scenarios:
1- Buy peace with Trump and leave the door open for a rate cut arguing that the latest inflation data (i.e., PPI) was the exception that confirms the softening of inflation AND the fear/risk of recession is higher; hence the FED must support the market with rate cut and free money.
OR
2- The impact of tariffs on Inflation is strong and durable! The FED assesses that the impact of inflation will overweight the impact of employment; hence the FED will wait for further data to intervene....

So, scenario 1 will send NQ to a new ATH and Scenario 2 will give another 500-600 drop.
  • #2,370
  • Aug 22, 2025 8:52am Aug 22, 2025 8:52am
Link to watch Powell's speech
https://www.youtube.com/live/EwKF3jb...q-5c6AORHWKAPc
  • #2,371
  • Aug 22, 2025 9:04am Aug 22, 2025 9:04am
Quoting Fadhl
Good Friday! We've an important speech today from Powell. I invite you to watch it live. During the last recent years of speeches in The Jackson Hole Symposiums, NQ moved down for an average of 500-600 points. Market were expecting Powell to give hints on rate cuts, but he did not; US economy was strong with maximum employment and inflation was softening... As a consequence, market sold of NQ. This year, we'll have the same story: Market is seeking a hint on rate cut for September meeting as the US economy is slowing down, but on the other hand...
Scenario 1 in play!
  • #2,372
  • Aug 22, 2025 9:35am Aug 22, 2025 9:35am
Powell bent the knee to Trump's pressure and a rate cut in September is almost a done deal.
Inflation data will be extremely important. Another increase in inflation, the narrative will change completely.
No trade for today. Unless I see an opportunity with Trump speech scheduled at Noon.
  • #2,373
  • Aug 22, 2025 9:40am Aug 22, 2025 9:40am
Potential Sell entry at PPI low (magenta dotted line) which coincide with 500 points up.
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  • #2,374
  • Aug 22, 2025 10:22am Aug 22, 2025 10:22am
Don’t think we are going much higher than that, i‘m short biased
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  • #2,375
  • Aug 22, 2025 2:48pm Aug 22, 2025 2:48pm
Exited my last short now. Last little win of the day. Happy weekend!
  • #2,376
  • Aug 25, 2025 7:43am Aug 25, 2025 7:43am
Good day/week!
Last week we got an openness for a rate cut, subject for a confirmation that Inflation data is still under control and the last inflation data was one shot, exceptional...
This Wednesday we have NVDA earnings. It will move NQ. And Friday we will have the first new set of inflation data with Core PCE.
Last week and day closed bullish.
We should expect a retrace to LBO before resuming up.
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  • #2,377
  • Aug 25, 2025 8:38am Aug 25, 2025 8:38am
The OR made HH-LL and closed with uncertainty. Waiting for the breakout and retest.
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  • #2,378
  • Aug 25, 2025 10:32am Aug 25, 2025 10:32am
I missed my entry by few...
NVDA is pushing price higher. But I think, it will retrace now and tomorrow as well.
  • #2,379
  • Aug 25, 2025 11:14am Aug 25, 2025 11:14am
Planed buy entry for today or Tomorrow.
It feels like the sell side is getting weaker and weaker.
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  • #2,380
  • Aug 25, 2025 11:20am Aug 25, 2025 11:20am
Quoting Mattisanti
Planed buy entry for today or Tomorrow. It feels like the sell side is getting weaker and weaker. {image}
In the ST, the direction is north unless Inflation is exploding up.
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