I've been at this for several years and have really, genuinely struggled. For me, the emphasis on bias and liquidity were my troubles because I see liquidity literally everywhere and can't determine which is the greater pull. I finally found another trader who has a method for targeting TP that I have found to be exceptionally solid, but I couldn't get an entry to save my life. I was aiming for the right targets but in the wrong direction. Like so many, I went hunting a method to put me right and I have found one that is making me so happy.
Fair warning: This is boring. I trade 1:1. It is also based on a couple typical indicators but in a way I have never seen utilized before.
Indicators (All free in TradingView, suitable for free tier): VWAP Auto Anchored, Stochastic, and CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms by ChrisMoody (which is based on Larry Williams' Vix Fix)
Most people use the Vix Fix as a means of finding market bottoms - I do the opposite and only use it to identify potential tops. Without getting too into the weeds about the formula, basically, the lower the reading, the more likely you are at a top. People who are looking for bottoms use the readings as they get higher, we are doing the opposite.
Step 1: Qualify potential instruments from your watch list. I trade Apex so I just have the list of their approved instruments as a watchlist and deleted the few that didn't work for my needs (large SL or tick values that exceed my per-trade risk tolerance). I end up choosing each day 1 index, 1 currency, and 1 either metal or energy instrument, although you can do whatever works for you. I start by choosing the 1D timeframe and just scrolling down each section of my watch list (I have them by category for quick apples-to-apples comparison). Specifically, we are looking for the instrument with the lowest relative Vix Fix reading. This suggests that is the instrument most likely nearing a top and gives us a natural bias to the downside.
Step 2: Setup the charts for context and entry. Move to the 5m chart. I mark out the regular session high and low over the last 3 days (not each day, just whichever is the highest and lowest during RTH), the high and low of the last regular session, and the high and low over the last 3 days overall (ETH). Additionally, I mark any significant resistance level that occurred during the last regular session (RTH). These levels provide contextual levels that we will utilize with our signals.
Step 3: Normalize threshold level for Vix Fix indicator. As you know, all instruments have varying volatility and trendiness. As such, I choose to compare each only to their own normal activity. Still on the 5m chart, I look at the CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms indicator. You will notice that there are some bars that the indicator turns bright green. Zoom out and mark the very top of the shortest green bar in recent history. This becomes our threshold level for that particular instrument.
Step 4: Wait until price approaches ("near", doesn't have to actually touch, although that is preferable) any of your drawn resistance lines from Step 2 or the VWAP.
Step 5: Check the Stochastic. We want the fast line (%K) to have crossed over the 80 level recently and then crossed back below the slow line (%D). Once these two conditions (Steps 4 and 5) are met, wait until
Step 6: Enter on the signal from the CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms indicator. The entry signal is as follows:
A. The Vix Fix has crossed down from above the threshold we drew in Step 3 to below the threshold. This must be a fresh cross.
B. We wait until the first Vix Fix candle that CLOSES taller than the previous candle. There will be frequent scenarios where you will have equal size candles or descending candles. This is fine. We only care when the first candle closes higher than the previous candle.
C. We enter a sell trade at market with SL 1 tick above the swing high that is bounded by the candle(s) that came below the threshold. Immediately set TP to a 1:1 RR.
D. Very important: If the candle that closes with the Vix Fix higher than the previous has price that has equaled or exceeded the swing high where we would put our SL, this is a false signal and must be ignored completely. Typically, it is reaching for a higher liquidity point and will give us another entry signal shortly after the Vix Fix has gone back over the threshold and then returned freshly below it per the rules outlined.
If the Stochastic moves aggressively down below around the 50 level before we enter, I will also typically skip the trade unless there is compelling reason for me to stay in it. I might discuss that later, but it will be things that most of you already understand from price action (ie. Major FVGs, etc). I also integrate fading longs in certain instances but that will be a later post to avoid any confusion initially.
Also, I like a minimum of around 6 ticks for SL/TP. If the signal candle closes within a tick of the high of previous candle, I feel like the momentum that we want has disappeared and can't justify a trade. Up to you, but you need some room.
For now, this is only for taking shorts. I have some ideas of integrating variations of the Vix Fix for longs later, but need to perfect an indicator I'm working to create organically.
A+ setup: At, or very near, marked resistance level or VWAP. Only shorts. Fast Stoch line crosses back under Slow Stoch line and under 80. 
Fair warning: This is boring. I trade 1:1. It is also based on a couple typical indicators but in a way I have never seen utilized before.
Indicators (All free in TradingView, suitable for free tier): VWAP Auto Anchored, Stochastic, and CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms by ChrisMoody (which is based on Larry Williams' Vix Fix)
Most people use the Vix Fix as a means of finding market bottoms - I do the opposite and only use it to identify potential tops. Without getting too into the weeds about the formula, basically, the lower the reading, the more likely you are at a top. People who are looking for bottoms use the readings as they get higher, we are doing the opposite.
Step 1: Qualify potential instruments from your watch list. I trade Apex so I just have the list of their approved instruments as a watchlist and deleted the few that didn't work for my needs (large SL or tick values that exceed my per-trade risk tolerance). I end up choosing each day 1 index, 1 currency, and 1 either metal or energy instrument, although you can do whatever works for you. I start by choosing the 1D timeframe and just scrolling down each section of my watch list (I have them by category for quick apples-to-apples comparison). Specifically, we are looking for the instrument with the lowest relative Vix Fix reading. This suggests that is the instrument most likely nearing a top and gives us a natural bias to the downside.
Step 2: Setup the charts for context and entry. Move to the 5m chart. I mark out the regular session high and low over the last 3 days (not each day, just whichever is the highest and lowest during RTH), the high and low of the last regular session, and the high and low over the last 3 days overall (ETH). Additionally, I mark any significant resistance level that occurred during the last regular session (RTH). These levels provide contextual levels that we will utilize with our signals.
Step 3: Normalize threshold level for Vix Fix indicator. As you know, all instruments have varying volatility and trendiness. As such, I choose to compare each only to their own normal activity. Still on the 5m chart, I look at the CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms indicator. You will notice that there are some bars that the indicator turns bright green. Zoom out and mark the very top of the shortest green bar in recent history. This becomes our threshold level for that particular instrument.
Step 4: Wait until price approaches ("near", doesn't have to actually touch, although that is preferable) any of your drawn resistance lines from Step 2 or the VWAP.
Step 5: Check the Stochastic. We want the fast line (%K) to have crossed over the 80 level recently and then crossed back below the slow line (%D). Once these two conditions (Steps 4 and 5) are met, wait until
Step 6: Enter on the signal from the CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms indicator. The entry signal is as follows:
A. The Vix Fix has crossed down from above the threshold we drew in Step 3 to below the threshold. This must be a fresh cross.
B. We wait until the first Vix Fix candle that CLOSES taller than the previous candle. There will be frequent scenarios where you will have equal size candles or descending candles. This is fine. We only care when the first candle closes higher than the previous candle.
C. We enter a sell trade at market with SL 1 tick above the swing high that is bounded by the candle(s) that came below the threshold. Immediately set TP to a 1:1 RR.
D. Very important: If the candle that closes with the Vix Fix higher than the previous has price that has equaled or exceeded the swing high where we would put our SL, this is a false signal and must be ignored completely. Typically, it is reaching for a higher liquidity point and will give us another entry signal shortly after the Vix Fix has gone back over the threshold and then returned freshly below it per the rules outlined.
If the Stochastic moves aggressively down below around the 50 level before we enter, I will also typically skip the trade unless there is compelling reason for me to stay in it. I might discuss that later, but it will be things that most of you already understand from price action (ie. Major FVGs, etc). I also integrate fading longs in certain instances but that will be a later post to avoid any confusion initially.
Also, I like a minimum of around 6 ticks for SL/TP. If the signal candle closes within a tick of the high of previous candle, I feel like the momentum that we want has disappeared and can't justify a trade. Up to you, but you need some room.
For now, this is only for taking shorts. I have some ideas of integrating variations of the Vix Fix for longs later, but need to perfect an indicator I'm working to create organically.
A+ setup: At, or very near, marked resistance level or VWAP. Only shorts. Fast Stoch line crosses back under Slow Stoch line and under 80.
I do wonder, how far back do you go to find the shortest green bar from the histogram? From your screenshots it seem pretty far. I would guess last 3 days?
