Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

1. | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 13,811 Posts | Online Now

Now, for those who want to make money trading Forex, I will start to tie the FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION to how you can make money trading Forex, which is what my trading course is all about and what is stated in the title of my thread.

http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-pric...-prices-crash/

Snippet:
2007 All Over Again, Part 6: Stock Valuations Enter Crash Territory
December 11, 2016

The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signalled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following:

Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
(CNBC) While the S&P 500 is reaching all-time highs on optimism over Donald Trump's economic agenda, some Wall Street strategists are increasingly worried about a widely followed valuation measure that's reached levels that preceded most of the major market crashes of the last 100 years.

The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble, Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
Newman said even if the market's earnings increase by 10 percent under Trump's policies, we're still dealing with the same picture, overvaluation on a very grand scale.
http://i2.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...c-16.jpg?w=550


The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is calculated using the price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller's research found that future 10-year stock market returns were negatively correlated to high CAPE ratio readings on a relative basis. He won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013 for his work on stock market inefficiency and valuations.

Other academics agreed that the current extreme CAPE ratio of 27.7 is a worrying sign for future returns versus bonds.

Only when CAPE is very high, say, CAPE is in the upper half of the tenth decile (CAPE higher than 27.6), future 10-year stock returns, on average, are lower than those on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, Valentin Dimitrov and Prem C. Jain wrote in a paper titled Shiller's CAPE: Market Timing and Risk on Nov. 17.
Even based on the more common price-earnings ratio, the market looks rich. The S&P 500's P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months is 18.9, the highest in more than 12 years, according to FactSet.

U.S. valuations start off as being high both on a historical basis and on a peer group basis. Certainly, based on the Shiller PE, the equity market seems expensive, Jefferies chief global equity strategist Sean Darby wrote on Nov. 29.

The above chart requires a bit of interpretation, mainly because of that spike in 1999, which seems to imply a much higher ceiling for stock valuations. It probably doesn't, because of the uniquely delusional nature of the tech stock bubble. That market was driven by newly minted dot-coms and related companies that, in many cases, had minimal or no earnings, so prices weren't related to profits. In other words, you can't calculate a price/earnings ratio if there are no earnings.
Eyeballs, that is, the number of people visiting a dot-com's website, had temporarily replaced traditional valuation measures in the hearts of speculators. With disastrous results.

Today's market, in contrast, is made up of companies with actual earnings, so it might be safe to discount 1999 and use the rest of the chart for comparison. In which case, current equity prices look extremely dangerous.

Comments from Benjaminis: Now that it is clearer where I am heading with my fundamental knowledge, which I obtain through hours and hours each day of reading, I can start to apply it to a Trade Plan.

Right now, I have 2 almost certain WIN guaranteed Trade Plans.

My first one is to short USD/JPY from where it is today until it reaches 105.00, then I will review my options. The second one is to go long Gold and Silver until Gold reaches $1325 US and Silver reaches $18 US.

Now it will be easier to explain my Money Flow Method. I know from my 10-year career in trading currencies that as the value of one Asset Class changes, it affects another. For example, we now have Risk Off because of the Trump Factor, which has been in place since November 9, 2016. On Wednesday, December 14, 2016, that Factor may change. That is when Janet Yellen announces the FED rate decision at 2:00 PM. Will we have buy the rumour and sell the news? Regardless of the decision, I will be ready to FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW using proper Risk Management. While technical indicators are very important and part of my strategy when PERCEPTION turns to REALITY, you can ignore Support and Resistance short-term until new Support and Resistance is set. Two recent examples are the British Pound and the Euro. We, of course, can add USD/JPY because it is a haven currency, and money ALWAYS flows there on Risk Off as it also flows short term to the US

Bonds, whether they are the 2 Year or the 5 Year or the 10 Year or the 30 Year US Bonds.

Since the November 8 elections, the Fixed Income or BOND MARKETS of the world have suffered real losses of OVER TWO TRILLION Dollars and the funds, not all of course, have flowed into the equity markets of the world. When the EQUITY markets revert to more realistic levels, then we will see a REVERSAL.
Knowing this, I have a 100% guarantee of which Asset Classes to buy or sell. THAT IS MY EDGE !!!

It is common knowledge that 95% of all currency traders, specifically the retail traders, lose their money. There is a reason, of course. It took me over 3 years to learn my trade, only Demo Trading, and that was a great learning experience for me since FEAR was eliminated, and Greed was not much of an issue since I could not spend my demo dollars on the nice things in life. :-)

The EGO in my case was built up since over 75% of all my forex trades were winning ones, and I averaged a ROI or return on demo investment of $50,000 US dollars of a minimum of 5% each and every month during the last year during 2005, of my demo trading. I would NEVER trade real funds unless my starting capital was $25,000 US, and there is a reason behind that.

Risk Management is the MOST IMPORTANT part of my teaching. I am still looking for a maximum of 6 forex traders that would take 30 days to learn free of charge my Money Flow Method free of charge with proper Risk Management.

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or an ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your username and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge, and at the end of the 30 days, I will give you a grade out of 100. However, your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons who sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD to HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank you and have a Great Trading Day !!!

Contact Benjamin at [email protected] or call me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gol...rves-1.3475818

Business
Ottawa sells off almost all its gold reserves, leaving just 77 ounces — or less
Unlike other countries, Ottawa has been selling off its reserve of gold bullion and coins

https://i.cbc.ca/1.3325383.155069523...m=Resize%3D114
Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: Mar 04, 2016 10:02 AM EST | Last Updated: March 4, 2016
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The government of Canada has wound down its gold reserves to basically nothing after a multi-year strategy of selling them off in favour of hoarding other countries' currencies instead.

According to the Department of Finance's official international reserves data released Thursday, Canada's gold reserves were down effectively to $0 as of the end of February. That's the value that Ottawa assigns its gold holdings from an accounting perspective.

In fact, Ottawa still has 77 ounces of gold, worth about $130,000 Canadian at current market prices. All of that consists of gold coins, as opposed to large bullion bricks that the government once hoarded.

The price of gold surged to its highest level in more than a year on Friday at $1,274.70 US an ounce.

Ottawa's gold holdings peaked in the 1960s at more than 1,000 tonnes. But the government has been steadily selling off its gold holdings ever since. By 2003, Ottawa was down to 3.4 tonnes, which it has now almost entirely sold.

1. Doc Zone: Canada's diminished gold reserves
2. Canada is selling off most of its gold

Figures show Canada sold 41,106 ounces of gold coins in December and another 32,860 ounces of gold coins in January. Last month, the government sold off another 21,851 shares in February.

"The decision to sell the gold was not tied to a specific gold price, and sales are being conducted over a long period and in a controlled manner," Finance Department spokesman David Barnabe wrote in a recent email to CBC News.

"The government has a long-standing policy of diversifying its portfolio by selling physical commodities (such as gold) and instead investing in financial assets that are easily tradable and that have deep markets of buyers and sellers," he said.

The final 77 ounces may in fact already be sold, but we won't know that until the monthly reserve figures come out for March in early April.

1. Gold at $1,200 an ounce pleases bullion bugs

The figures don't say which coins Ottawa has been selling. The Royal Canadian Mint has produced pure Maple Leaf gold coins in a variety of denominations for more than 40 years. They've proven to be popular around the world, with more than 25 million troy ounces of coins sold since 1979. It also produces gold coins for collectors, along with gold bars and wafers.

Canada produced $5 and $10 gold coins in the 1912-1914 period, too. The mint began to sell off its stash of that vintage gold in 2012 and ended that program in early 2014, selling 30,000 high-quality vintage coins containing 13,000 ounces of gold. The remaining lower-quality vintage coins were all refined so the government could sell the balance as gold bullion.

Former senior Finance Department bureaucrat Don Drummond says he doesn't think it makes any sense for Canada to hold any gold, because it hasn't delivered a good rate of return over time and it costs money to store it.

Drummond says that hundreds of years ago, gold symbolized the wealth of a country.
But that's no longer the case, since no major world economies still value their money tied to the gold standard.

Other countries are still hoarding
That doesn't mean all governments are selling off their gold hoards, however. Countries such as Russia, India and China are currently bolstering their reserves.

Central banks added 336 tonnes to their reserves in the second half of last year, a 25 per cent increase from the previous year, the World Gold Council says.
In February, the U.S. held about 8,133 tonnes of gold, which made up 72 per cent of its reserves. Germany had 3,381 tonnes for 66 per cent of its reserves last month, while Italy and France each held more than 2,400 tonnes — over 60 per cent of their respective reserves.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://i.cbc.ca/1.3325383.155069523...-evans.jpg?im=
Pete Evans
Senior Business Writer

Pete Evans is the senior business writer for CBCNews.ca. Before coming to the CBC, his work had appeared in the Globe & Mail, the Financial Post, the Toronto Star, and Canadian Business Magazine. Twitter: @p_evans Email: [email protected]With files from The Canadian Press

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices·About CBC News


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Philosophy of the newsletter
"Once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that consequently the prices of all commodities will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and restricts his cash holdings to a minimum size. If the credit expansion is not stopped, the boom turns to CRACK-UP BOOM: the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system begins." -- Ludwig von Mises (1949)

The “HAT TRICK LETTER” investment strategy originally was three-fold:

1. Discovery of minerals & resources (e.g. gold, silver, copper, oil, gas)
2. Price rise for those commodities
3. Canadian Dollar appreciation

The investment strategy has changed in the last few years since the Lehman Brothers failure in late 2008. It is more single-minded in recommended strategy, to invest primarily in gold, silver, but perhaps platinum and palladium to a minor extent. The best forms are bullion bars for larger accounts and coins for smaller accounts. The mining stocks have been discouraged by the Jackass in recent years, correctly so. They are badly underperforming and harmed by rugged illicit activity.

They might surprise with fine gains in the future, but one should recall that mining stocks are paper investments subject to inflation via diluted shares, and subject to risk of foreign jurisdiction confiscations that are in occurrence again. The rationale for physical investment is simple, less risky, and without leverage. No high-level solutions have been or will be attempted for the systemic crisis, as the power structure has been preserved. The numerous monetary policy and bank aid packages have badly debased the major currencies, with no remedy.

The 0% central bank policy that dominates will lead to persistent aggravated problems in the future, not a remedy. The reckless free cost of money will continue to pressure commodity prices, including energy and food prices. The economic damage is obvious from profit margins universally. Therefore, the best route is to invest in gold & silver bars and coins, keeping them in safe locations, prepared for the full crisis blossom. The storm of monetary hyperinflation and systemic rupture with asset deflation will continue to create a massive hurricane storm.

The major themes analyzed will continue to be the financial sector, currencies, bonds, and the central banks, as they bear on trends for the structurally damaged US Economy. Mining and energy exploration companies can be the investment focus for those who choose to endure the growing risks. Investments of all types will be positioned for near-term and long-term gains, rather than short-term. Research reports will be issued monthly on the website, posted in mid-month.

A secondary but vital motive of mine is to teach and explain the many complex topics and to see readers learn. My background as a statistical analyst includes teaching experience, training and classroom, where complexity is commonplace. An attempt to respond to some emails sent to me will be made, with no guarantees for promptness, due to broad duties.

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August 17, 2025

Spiritual Diplomacy Saw Putin Honouring Herman Of Alaska
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A compelling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes President Putin revealed about his meeting with President Donald Trump at the historic Alaska Summit: “I would like to immediately note that the visit was timely and very useful...We discussed practically all tracks of our cooperation, but first of all, of course, we talked about a possible resolution of the Ukrainian crisis on a fair basis”, says the Spiritual Diplomacy aspect of this historic summit saw President Putin laying flowers while praying at the graves of Russian soldiers killed in World War II, then he honored Herman of Alaska, the Russian Orthodox patron saint of America, alongside Archbishop Alexei of Sitka and Alaska, and the Wall Street Journal observed: “The summit gave Putin a platform to turn longstanding narratives about the Ukraine war on their head, emphasizing that the U.S. and Russia are neighbors separated at their closest point by just over 2 miles of water”.

Upon President Putin returning to Moscow yesterday, this report notes, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced: “Ukrainian army units lost more than 1,315 servicemen in the special military operation zone over the past day”—an announcement followed by a European diplomat confirming to Fox News: “President Donald Trump supports Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal for Moscow to take full control of the Donbas region and freeze the front lines elsewhere for an agreement with Ukraine”—then European Union and NATO member leader Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico declared: “The next few days will show whether the major players in the EU will support this process, or continue to persist with their failing strategy aimed at weakening Russia”.

While preparing to meet President Trump at the White House tomorrow, this report continues, unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky called for more sanctions on Russia, that would join the 23,960 other sanctions which have had zero effect—a nonsensical call for sanctions joined with the news: “The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will take part in a meeting between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky at the White House”—and White House sources revealed to Axios and CNN: “Trump told Zelensky and the other participants that he wants to hold a trilateral summit with Putin fast, as early as next Friday, on August 22”.

Most certainly against President Trump pushing for peace in Ukraine, this report details, is the leftist Washington Post, which raged today: “Putin has managed to play yet another U.S. president for a sucker...Indeed, Putin has become expert at using his KGB training and his native guile to manipulate his gullible American counterparts”—and is an unhinged outburst of rage joined with the insane news: “An alleged double of the Russian President arrived at the summit in Alaska without a chin, and the real leader of the Russian Federation did not consider it necessary to waste time on complaints from the American leader Donald Trump...Ukrainians began to put forward similar theories on social networks immediately after the meeting of the heads of the two states...Instead of calmly responding to world news, some went into hysterics and turned to insults, saying that Trump disgraced himself and the United States...In turn, Vladimir Putin, according to them, cold-bloodedly manipulated him and even brutally blackmailed him, right in the car”.

In factually assessing the historic Alaska Summit, this report concludes, top Kremlin media advisor Elena Karaeva truthfully observed: “Rumours about someone's victory in some kind of Cold War — are nothing more than gossip from retired and scrapped armchair experts...Russia not only removed the hands of the EU and NATO with one movement by focusing on solving problems related to the security of the state, the health of the economy, and the return of civilizational norms of social and public life, Russia showed the whole world what real sovereignty is...We have regained our values for ourselves...The independence of Russia, to paraphrase the famous stanza of Pushkin, became the key to the greatness of our country...Great Historical Russia came for its own...And to protect real, not fake, justice, honour and truth”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]


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August 17, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

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In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

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5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

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Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

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NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

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CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

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You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.

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What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

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August 18, 2025
Trump Issues “Some Things Never Change!!!” Ultimatum To Zelensky

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes President Donald Trump posted the ultimatum to unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky last evening: “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight...Remember how it started...No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE...Some things never change!!!”, says this ultimatum, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring: “Here’s the thing to remind everybody...And when the president says this is not our war...But let’s be frank, this is not a war...The United States is not in a war...Ukraine is in a war...And we’ve been supporting Ukraine...We happen to be in the role of the only country in the world with the only leader in the world that can bring Putin to the table to even discuss these things”.

In quick response to President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio, this report notes, neocon “war pig” Senator Lindsey Graham proclaimed in rage: “My advice to President Trump and Secretary Rubio is, you’ve got to convince Putin that if this war doesn’t end justly and honorably with Ukraine making concessions also, we’re going to destroy the Russian economy...We can do it”—and was a proclamation of rage joined with the grim news: “Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has rejected President Donald Trump’s call for a peace deal between Moscow and Kiev, reiterating that a truce has to be implemented before discussing details of a possible settlement”.

Yesterday, this report continues, President Trump announced: “Big day at the White House tomorrow...Never had so many European Leaders at one time...My great honor to host them!!!”—an announcement joined by these socialist warmongering European leaders issuing their document “Statement of the Co-chairs of the Coalition of the Willing: 17 August 2025”, wherein it declared: “The Leaders reaffirmed their continued support to Ukraine, and praised President Zelenskyy’s desire for a just and lasting peace as he prepares for further consultations with President Trump in Washington DC...They re-emphasized the readiness to deploy a reassurance force once hostilities have ceased, and to help secure Ukraine’s skies and seas and regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces”.

According to anonymous White House officials, this report details, the three-step plan to peace initiated by President Trump is: “1. Get Putin to sit down in a bilateral meeting with the U.S. to agree to steps toward peace...2. Get Zelensky to sit down in today's bilateral meeting with the U.S. to agree to steps toward peace...3. Get Putin and Zelensky to sit together to hash it all out in a trilateral meeting that involves the U.S.”—and are steps for peace that today will see:

Noon.

European leaders are expected to be at the White House by noon EDT at the South Portico, with a television crew and photographers allowed to document the arrival.

1:00 p.m.-1:15 p.m.
Zelensky and Trump are set to greet each other an hour after the European leaders arrive, and will shortly after go into a meeting with each other in the Oval Office. Vice President Vance is also expected to attend this meeting.

2:15 p.m.-2:30 p.m.
Trump will greet other European leaders in the State Dining Room an hour after he begins his Oval Office meeting with Zelensky. Fifteen minutes after the greetings, Trump and European leaders will take a family photo together in the Cross Hall.

3:00 p.m.
Trump and European leaders will then head into their high-stakes meeting in the East Room of the White House. Zelensky will also be a part of this meeting.
In response to unrelenting socialist Democrat leftist media propaganda trying to stop peace, this report concludes, President Trump posted the declaration: “The Fake News has been saying for 3 days that I suffered a 'major defeat' by allowing President Vladimir Putin of Russia to have a major Summit in the United States...He would have loved doing the meeting anywhere else but the U.S., and the Fake News knows this...It was a major point of contention!... If we had the Summit elsewhere, the Democrat run and controlled media would have said what a terrible thing THAT was...These people are sick!”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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August 18, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to
The Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts, led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Brain Prize In War For Attention Meets Media Apocalypse

Orwellian “Two Minutes Hate” Collides With “Overton Window” Fracture

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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...nd-us-hegemony

August 15, 1971 – The Beginning Of The End For US Hegemony
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by Tyler Durden
Monday, Aug 18, 2025 - 04:20 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Fifty-four years ago (August 15, 1971), Nixon took the USD off its gold standard, thereby officially putting the final nail in the Constitutionally mandated concept of US money.

But hey, at least the Constitution can still serve as a nice museum piece for kids to walk past.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=OOEO9w38

Lies from on High
Back in 1971, the lies from on high (which are nothing new to any sophisticated and critically thinking citizen) were at full swing.
Nixon got on live TV and promised us the decoupling was “only temporary” (sound familiar?) and that “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as today.”
But the fibbing did not start or end there.

Before the decoupling of August 15, the Treasury Secretary and Fed officials were making the case that gold was actually holding the dollar down and that decoupling gold would strengthen the dollar going forward, while gold’s value would, in fact, fall.
Hmmm.

Facts from Math…
A little fact-checking may be worth a smirk here…

First, the decoupling from gold has lasted more than half a century, so it hardly feels “temporary.”
As for the USD holding its purchasing power, well, when measured against a milligram of gold, that paper dollar has lost > 99% of its value since 1971.
Meanwhile, and contrary to the expert hearing testimony of a 1971 Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary, gold has not got down in price, but has risen, by well…
8000%.
EIGHT THOUSAND PERCENT.
Huh?

What the Heck?
How was this possible? What did gold do in the last 54 years?
Gold did very little.

But the dollar, now unfettered by its Constitutionally mandated gold-backing, got very, very, very busy multiplying (i.e., debasing) itself to pay for just criminally negligent deficit-spending.

Like a teenager with dad’s Amex, the debt and spend addiction of US “leadership” was officially born on August 15, 1971 –the very same day the USD’s death spiral began.

Don’t want to believe me? Don’t see the correlation?

Here’s another stubborn fact: In 1971, the US public (governmental debt) was $ $398B.
As of this writing, that number has skyrocketed to $37.2T in the literal course of my lifetime…
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SMDdAPoD

History Ignored = History Repeated
The lesson is simple: Currencies backed by nothing will encourage debt addictions, which debase the purchasing power of paper money.
This is a cycle which has been repeated countless times throughout history. (See: The Faces and Cycles of Gold).

Gold, which is far more honest than policymakers, rises because paper money ALWAYS dies under the weight of dishonest spending.

From Dishonesty to Desperation
Dishonesty, of course, is always followed by a lack of accountability, which is in turn followed by behavioral patterns of desperation, finger-pointing and madness – like a sitting President calling a Fed Chairman, of whom we are no fans, “a total loser.”

The scope of policy desperation now masquerading as bold action (tariff policies, the Genuis Act, Fed name-calling and even increased “buzz” of a gold revaluation) is now a daily thing.

What’s even scarier is that such patterns aren’t unique to the USA; they are global…
Global debt in 1997 was $30T. Today, that figure has skyrocketed well past $300T.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=PZZ7ZOBL

In the interim, politicians and paid-for economists in DC think-tanks (oxymoron?) have hypnotized the masses into falsely believing that such otherwise unthinkable debt levels could be sustained.
How?

By the equally unthinkable proposal that currencies mouse-clicked at a central bank could safely absorb such debt with no risk to the currency, economy or market.
But as we (and common sense) have reminded for years: You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt that is then monetized with money created ex-nihilo out of thin air.

The First Kinks in the Armour: Credit Markets
Debt (as David Hume, von Mises and other critical-thinking “gold bugs” have warned for generations) breaks, well, just about everything…
Nowhere is this truer than in the US and global credit markets, where policy makers and investors whistle past debt crisis after debt crisis.

But debt crises are effectively just liquidity crises, and we have seen quite a string of them in recent (yet media-ignored) memory.
The repo crisis of 2019, for example, as well as the market implosion of 2020, the GILT crisis of 2022, the banking crisis of 2023 and even the tariff crisis of April 2025 were ultimately just signposts of a liquidity/credit/debt crisis percolating in plain yet ignored sight.

In each instance, the foregoing credit implosions were “resolved” by dovish central bank reactions of either lower rates or higher money printing.
In other words, can kicking to buy time, votes and excuses as the next generation inherits a nightmare.

The Second Kink in the Armour: Inflated Equity Bubbles
But expanding currency creation via grotesque credit expansion to provide “emergency” liquidity while subsidizing an otherwise unloved UST market and inflating an objectively over-valued stock market is no “solution.”

It is merely a frog-boil currency debasement which widens the pace of wealth inequality while rapidly feeding market bubbles, and by extension, market risk.

Market Bubbles Don’t Equal Strong Economies
For years, we have openly mocked the falsely positive fiction writing of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) for their false inflation reporting and comically (and seemingly constant) optimistic labour data.

But with Main Street now crawling under the invisible and misreported tax of inflation as well as downwardly revised job growth (which confirms a recession we have said is already here), Trump just fired the head of the same BLS for actually telling the truth.
Folks, regardless of your political bias, one really can’t make this kind of crazy up.

But why worry, as the immortal S&P, NASDAQ and DOW (90% owned by the USA’s top 10%) is going to save us, right?
Hmmm.

This S&P takes 40% of its market cap from 7 stocks whose net-income-margins are just waiting for a mean-reversion whenever the AI meme (just like prior memes, from dotcoms, real estate, electricity, automobiles and railroads) becomes over-crowed and over-bought.

Margin debt in US markets has surpassed the $1T mark, which is greater than prior peaks in the dot.com and pre-08 bubbles.
Meanwhile, insiders like Bezos are selling billions in personal shares, and Buffet himself is sitting largely (hundreds of billions) in cash as the NASDAQ trades at 49X earnings.

In short, if you think the markets with such a profile will save the US economy, think otherwise.
They are teetering on interest rate and recession risk reminiscent of 1929 America and 1989 Japan. When these bubbles popped, it took decades, not months, to recover prior highs.

Just saying.

The World (and Gold’s) Reaction to US Decline
As a post-2022 world turns increasingly away from a weaponized USD, and as the BRICS+ nations look with each passing day for new ways to trade outside the Greenback and net settle global trade deals in physical gold, the trend away from the USD and US debt, just like the BLS’ pessimistic labor data, can no longer be hidden in plain sight.

Equally undeniable is gold’s objective rise as a strategic global reserve asset preferred over the UST.
Since the USA shot itself in the foot by weaponizing an allegedly neutral reserve asset (the USD) in 2022, central bank stacking of gold has tripled while demand for USTs has tanked.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=oTuF59Rd

As of July 2025, even the BIS has confirmed gold’s status as a Tier-1 asset alongside the far less credible 10Y UST.
Demand for physical gold has shattered the hitherto (and legal)price-fixing at the New York and London metals exchange.

Rather than lever gold with paper, these dubious market-makers/exchanges are now forced to execute actual delivery rather than churn short contracts.
Meanwhile, gold trades are moving East, where the Shanghai and St. Petersburg exchanges are turning the tables on Western manipulation of an asset the East has understood far better (and longer) than the West.

More Desperation Follows…
In this backdrop of a world awash in unloved US Dollars, IOU’s and fantasy policies, DC has been forced to become more desperate in the face of a DXY which has seen the worst half-year performance in 40 years.

This desperation takes many forms, including shoot-from-the-hip tariff policies which change almost daily and send markets up and down like yo-yos, wherein trillions of equity market caps can be made or lost in hours.

Genuis Act Ruse
As demand and trust in the USD gyrates, DC is forced to create clever new projects to boost this demand, of which the Genuis Act (2nd oxymoron?) is the most recent example.

By pairing stablecoins to UST’s (and hence the USD), this king-maker act simply allows fintech giants (Tether, Circle Internet) and favored banks (JP Morgan) to issue stablecoin users a digital buck while the issuers reinvest client money into a UST arbitrage whereby they keep all the yield (profits) and the coin owner just gets a trackable, programable and take-able “coin.”

Such a profile, of course, makes stablecoins a CBDC in substance rather than form, as they are merely CBDC’s issued by private actors (directly tied to the Fed) rather than a central bank.

In short, a classic distinction without a difference.
Nor are stablecoins (3rd oxymoron?) either “stable” or a “coin.”
Like the banks which failed in 2023 due to UST volatility and interest rate swings, stablecoins rise and fall with bond yield gyrations.

Hence, these “stablecoins” are no more stable than Signature Valley Bank or the Treasury market itself, which, for anyone paying attention, is anything but stable…
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=S5da0GgM

The Only Option Left: More Debasement
Uncle Sam’s sovereign bonds are as sick as Uncle Sam’s fatally ill debt levels.
Unless trillions are “printed” at the Fed to buy those bonds, their demand and hence prices will fall, which means their yields will rise.

Bond yields, of course, represent the true cost of debt/borrowing, and with the US so indebted, it can NOT afford to allow bond yields to spike.
Like all debt-soaked nations throughout history, the Fed will thus be forced to choose between saving the bond market or saving the currency.

The dollar will be sacrificed (debased) to sustain the bond/debt market for the simple reason that debt is the only “force” supporting so-called American “growth” and “hegemony.”

Gold Revaluation – More Desperate than Effective
Meanwhile, there is serious talk of revaluing Uncle Sam’s 261 million ounces of $42.22 gold certificates to market or higher. There is equal and realistic buzz of a gold-backed Treasury, themes I’ve addressed at length elsewhere: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option.

Gold owners certainly welcome such revaluation, but the very need for such policies is merely enhanced confirmation that gold is needed and trusted more than the USD – even among US leadership…

Looking Ahead? It Looks Bad…
All of the foregoing facts confirm just how debt-distorted the US economy and narrative are, as of 2025.
They also confirm just how debt-trapped US policies have become. More importantly, they confirm just how doomed the US economy is going forward.

This is because the US growth narrative has zero good options left to it. Once debt/GDP ratios cross the 100% Rubicon (we are now at 120%+), growth mathematically slows by 1/3.

And the only way to bring this debt ratio down is via massive spending cuts well beyond the DOGE or USAID cuts. The real debts come from entitlements and military spending, which no politician can or will touch.

Is the US Already in Default?
Again, this leaves the US with only bad options to address unsustainable debt. It can either default or inflate away its debt.

Guess which option DC will (and has) take(n)?

But here’s the rub.
By inflating away its debt via currency debasement, inflation levels are soaring past UST yields, resulting in negative real rates – i.e. a NEGATIVE returning UST, which by definition, IS a defaulting bond.

The ironies abound…
But the US avoids publicly displaying this irony and default by simply lying about (i.e., misreporting) the US inflation rate, measured by a CPI scale that has been “modified” over 20 times since the Volcker era to mask actual inflation data.

Again: Just more desperation hiding in plain sight.

Gold Is Now So Clear
All of this explains gold’s massive rise after the 2022 turning point. If folks like you and I can see the desperation and balance sheet of the USA, the rest of the world can too.

That is why central banks, sovereign wealth funds and even the BIS itself are openly transitioning from bad “money” (i.e. fiat/paper “money”) to real money, i.e., physical gold.

Silver
Silver’s real moves, already significant in 2024 and 2025, are yet to come. In gold bull markets, silver dramatically outperforms.
We are not close to the gold/silver ratios of 1980 or 2011 (15 & 32, respectively), for the simple reason that despite 40% rises in 2025 (and outperforming the S&P since 2000), the gold bull market has yet to even gain its stride.

Meanwhile, silver, sitting atop a 5-year supply deficit and a 45-year cup & handle formation, continues to rise, and when priced in gold terms, silver is still attractively undervalued.

For patient investors, silver will be quite rewarding.

Preservation Is Wealth
Ultimately, however, our aim is wealth preservation first and foremost. Gold’s historical role as a store of value in times of paper money debacles means wealth is made by: (1) not losing it and (2) not measuring it in fiat terms.

If your governments fail to protect your currency and wealth, the responsibility rests with each individual.
And with capital controls and centralization (as evidenced most recently by Stablecoin rushes) on the rise, the importance of holding an analog “pet rock” – directly in your name and outside of a dangerous banking system (with a legal firewall between your government) – could not be more compelling than today.

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Your Perfunctory Reminder That Markets Are Pornographically Overvalued

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by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, August 19, 2025 - 07:20 AM
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

So here we are, staring at headlines that whisper of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, and useless sell-side analysts that appear on CNBC daily, looking for any excuse to backfit their evergreen “buy” ratings to some good news that can continue to explain 40x PEs and an S&P 200,000 target, are salivating.
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The narrative is obvious: peace means stability, stability implies growth, and growth means stocks go higher. But anyone with more than a week’s experience in markets knows how this script can end: not with a euphoric rally, but with a “sell the news” thud. Markets don’t run on world peace; they run on liquidity. Take Covid for example: everyone thought the bubonic plague had landed and all life as we knew it was going to stop — so naturally the NASDAQ tripled off its lows after the Fed firehosed trillions in liquidity to the nation’s uber-rich.

I joked at the time: “The year is 2030. All mankind has died from COVID-19. A lone server in the basement of the New York Fed continues to bid the Dow to all-time highs.”

So now, if peace gets priced as “the last bullish catalyst,” then what’s left to keep this mania levitating? Has anyone who calls themselves a contrarian thought of the removal of war headlines becoming he trigger for a reversal?

Make no mistake, a reversal is overdue. I know, I know — there’s no point in reminding anyone again, because it feels like the market is never going to go down. I’ve been wrong before, loudly, and on more than one occasion (sometimes the only thing my calls crash is my P&L). But I also know that when the data screams “bubble,” ignoring it usually doesn’t end well.

On almost every objective measure, the market is not just expensive — it’s wildly overvalued. June 30th data from CurrentMarketValuation.com doesn’t just say “overvalued” — it says “strongly overvalued,” and it says it across nearly every single model that matters.

Take the Buffett Indicator. It’s sitting around 200% of GDP, more than two standard deviations above its long-term average. The last two times it got anywhere near this level were the dot-com peak in 2000 and again in late 2021. In both cases, investors were treated to drawdowns north of 40%.
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The CAPE ratio tells the same story: hovering in the mid-30s today, more than two standard deviations above its mean. The only other times it has reached these levels were 1929 and 2000 — and we all know how those chapters ended (spoiler: not with soft landings and champagne).
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The price-to-sales ratio is equally stretched. At more than three standard deviations above trend, the market is literally off the charts. That level of multiple expansion has never been sustained. Every time it’s gotten this far — whether 2000 or 2021 — it has unwound violently.
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The mean reversion model, which plots the S&P 500 against its inflation-adjusted exponential trend line, has the index more than three standard deviations above where history says it should be. The last time it hit that level? Late 2021 — right before a 25% drawdown in 2022. The last time before that? 2000, which needs no introduction.

Even the interest rate model, which usually gives the market a break when yields are low, is flashing red. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 4% and the S&P 500 sitting near record highs, the model calls equities “overvalued.” Translation: even with rates this high, stocks aren’t cheap relative to bonds. The only metric not screaming bloody murder is the earnings yield gap model, which is “fairly valued.” But “fair” in this context means equities are simply less outrageously expensive compared to Treasuries, which sold off with equities on the last pullback — not that they’re a bargain.
And all of this is happening as macro conditions worsen. The latest PPI report showed producer prices running hotter than expected.
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That makes it tough for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon. Positive real rates are grinding the economy to a halt slowly but steadily in the background, a drag that doesn’t show up in day-to-day stock charts but eventually bleeds into earnings. Once earnings estimates get revised down — as they inevitably will if rates stay high and costs keep creeping up — today’s stretched valuations get even worse. Expensive becomes unconscionable.

That’s when a feedback loop kicks in: weaker earnings mean weaker hiring. Job losses follow. And job losses are where my warnings about the passive bid come into play: The Passive Bid Crash Awaits.

Retirement accounts are now north of $40 trillion, and thanks to auto-enrollment and target-date defaults, much of that is funnelled into index funds, whether or not valuations make sense. Passive has overtaken active management, and the big three firms — Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street — collectively control tens of trillions. Their flows don’t analyze; they just buy. The bigger the stock, the bigger the allocation. That’s how the Magnificent Seven levitate while market breadth gasps for air.

But those inflows depend on payrolls. When jobs go, contributions dry up, and redemptions accelerate as people tap savings. And here’s the dirty little secret: these funds don’t keep giant cash cushions. To meet redemptions, many have already been borrowing against credit lines instead of liquidating assets. That’s leverage by another name. It works when redemptions are small, but if they build, funds flip into forced sellers at the worst possible moment. This isn’t a side pocket of the market — it’s more than half of U.S. fund assets, wired directly into retirement accounts. Which is why I’ve argued that job losses are the silent tripwire. When payrolls crack, the passive bid cracks, and when the passive bid cracks, the market has no floor.

Now, overlay this with crypto — the most volatile risk asset of them all — which is now embedded in the plumbing of the financial system: Crypto Will Cause The Next Trillion Dollar Crash

I’ve written before about Bitcoin’s “crossing the moat.” It’s no longer knocking on the door; it’s inside the castle, in 401(k)s, ETFs, and corporate treasuries. That integration means a sharp drawdown in crypto wouldn’t just be a sideshow like during the “crypto winter”— it would be a systemic shock. In 2000, it was dot-com stocks. In 2008, it was housing. Today, it could easily be crypto that tips the first domino.

History tells us how this movie ends. When valuations are this far above trend — 1929, 2000, 2008, 2021 — the aftermath isn’t gentle mean reversion. It’s collapsed. And every collapse has its catalyst. Maybe it’s a crypto unwind. Maybe it’s the Fed boxed in by inflation. Maybe it’s BRICS announcing a commodity-backed settlement system. Maybe it’s peace in Ukraine, perversely, removing the last bullish narrative. Maybe it’s simply the economy slowing under the weight of positive real rates until earnings crumble. The point is, with valuations this stretched, the catalyst doesn’t matter. The conditions are already there.

And when it comes, it won’t be a glide lower. On the way up, markets climb the stairs. On the way down, they take the elevator. This market has been walking stairs for more than a decade. The elevator shaft is right below it. And sure, maybe I’ve been the idiot standing by that shaft waving “watch out” while everyone else keeps partying upstairs. But history’s pretty clear about how gravity works — even if timing it has always been my curse.

Have a great week ahead. Smoke if you got ‘em.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand-selected by me, have not been fact-checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and am watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are, just in case. If I’m long, I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point, I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double-check them.

I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided on this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures, but I can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple of beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight-up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

NOTE. THIS ARTICLE WAS EDITED BY BWM USING THE SOFTWARE GRAMMARLY.

THE ORIGINAL LINK WITHOUT MY EDITING FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

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Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

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NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

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CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

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You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.

1. | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 13,811 Posts | Online Now

Now, for those who want to make money trading Forex, I will start to tie the FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION to how you can make money trading Forex, which is what my trading course is all about and what is stated in the title of my thread.

http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-pric...-prices-crash/

Snippet:
2007 All Over Again, Part 6: Stock Valuations Enter Crash Territory
December 11, 2016

The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signalled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following:

Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
(CNBC) While the S&P 500 is reaching all-time highs on optimism over Donald Trump's economic agenda, some Wall Street strategists are increasingly worried about a widely followed valuation measure that's reached levels that preceded most of the major market crashes of the last 100 years.

The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller, now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble, Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
Newman said even if the market's earnings increase by 10 percent under Trump's policies, we're still dealing with the same picture, overvaluation on a very grand scale.
http://i2.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...c-16.jpg?w=550


The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is calculated using the price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller's research found that future 10-year stock market returns were negatively correlated to high CAPE ratio readings on a relative basis. He won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013 for his work on stock market inefficiency and valuations.

Other academics agreed that the current extreme CAPE ratio of 27.7 is a worrying sign for future returns versus bonds.

Only when CAPE is very high, say, CAPE is in the upper half of the tenth decile (CAPE higher than 27.6), future 10-year stock returns, on average, are lower than those on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, Valentin Dimitrov and Prem C. Jain wrote in a paper titled Shiller's CAPE: Market Timing and Risk on Nov. 17.
Even based on the more common price-earnings ratio, the market looks rich. The S&P 500's P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months is 18.9, the highest in more than 12 years, according to FactSet.

U.S. valuations start off as being high both on a historical basis and on a peer group basis. Certainly, based on the Shiller PE, the equity market seems expensive, Jefferies chief global equity strategist Sean Darby wrote on Nov. 29.

The above chart requires a bit of interpretation, mainly because of that spike in 1999, which seems to imply a much higher ceiling for stock valuations. It probably doesn't, because of the uniquely delusional nature of the tech stock bubble. That market was driven by newly minted dot-coms and related companies that, in many cases, had minimal or no earnings, so prices weren't related to profits. In other words, you can't calculate a price/earnings ratio if there are no earnings.
Eyeballs, that is, the number of people visiting a dot-com's website, had temporarily replaced traditional valuation measures in the hearts of speculators. With disastrous results.

Today's market, in contrast, is made up of companies with actual earnings, so it might be safe to discount 1999 and use the rest of the chart for comparison. In which case, current equity prices look extremely dangerous.

Comments from Benjaminis: Now that it is clearer where I am heading with my fundamental knowledge, which I obtain through hours and hours each day of reading, I can start to apply it to a Trade Plan.

Right now, I have 2 almost certain WIN guaranteed Trade Plans.

My first one is to short USD/JPY from where it is today until it reaches 105.00, then I will review my options. The second one is to go long Gold and Silver until Gold reaches $1325 US and Silver reaches $18 US.

Now it will be easier to explain my Money Flow Method. I know from my 10-year career in trading currencies that as the value of one Asset Class changes, it affects another. For example, we now have Risk Off because of the Trump Factor, which has been in place since November 9, 2016. On Wednesday, December 14, 2016, that Factor may change. That is when Janet Yellen announces the FED rate decision at 2:00 PM. Will we have buy the rumour and sell the news? Regardless of the decision, I will be ready to FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW using proper Risk Management. While technical indicators are very important and part of my strategy when PERCEPTION turns to REALITY, you can ignore Support and Resistance short-term until new Support and Resistance is set. Two recent examples are the British Pound and the Euro. We, of course, can add USD/JPY because it is a haven currency, and money ALWAYS flows there on Risk Off, as it also flows short term to the US

Bonds, whether they are the 2 Year or the 5 Year or the 10 Year or the 30 Year US Bonds.

Since the November 8 elections, the Fixed Income or BOND MARKETS of the world have suffered real losses of OVER TWO TRILLION Dollars and the funds, not all of course, have flowed into the equity markets of the world. When the EQUITY markets revert to more realistic levels, then we will see a REVERSAL.
Knowing this, I have a 100% guarantee of which Asset Classes to buy or sell. THAT IS MY EDGE !!!

It is common knowledge that 95% of all currency traders, specifically the retail traders, lose their money. There is a reason, of course. It took me over 3 years to learn my trade, only Demo Trading, and that was a great learning experience for me since FEAR was eliminated, and Greed was not much of an issue since I could not spend my demo dollars on the nice things in life. :-)

The EGO in my case was built up since over 75% of all my forex trades were winning ones, and I averaged a ROI or return on demo investment of $50,000 US dollars of a minimum of 5% each and every month during the last year during 2005, of my demo trading. I would NEVER trade real funds unless my starting capital was $25,000 US, and there is a reason behind that.

Risk Management is the MOST IMPORTANT part of my teaching. I am still looking for a maximum of 6 forex traders that would take 30 days to learn free of charge my Money Flow Method free of charge with proper Risk Management.

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or an ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your username and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge, and at the end of the 30 days, I will give you a grade out of 100. However, your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons who sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD to HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank you and have a Great Trading Day !!!

Contact Benjamin at [email protected] or call me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you, and I look forward to hearing from you.

NOTE: After the first six subscribers take advantage of my offer, the cost is $100.00 Canadian dollars via an E Transfer to [email protected]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...gk1gwe2xpxAmQK

Gold, not canola or coal, is China’s No. 1 import from Canada – at least according to China

Steven Chase

Senior parliamentary reporter

Published Yesterday

Open this photo in the gallery:


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resi...600&quality=80


A salesman arranges gold bangles inside a jewellery showroom during a major gold-buying festival, in Mumbai, India, in May, 2019. The total value of China's gold imports from Canada is much higher than Canadian figures suggest. Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters


Gold bullion from Canada makes up a far greater portion of Chinese gold imports than is generally understood outside of China, according to data from the Asian country’s customs agency that has drawn little notice outside of professional circles here.

The total value of these imports, according to figures from China Customs, is more than 10 times higher than Canadian export statistics suggest – a discrepancy that hints at the full extent of the role trade between the two countries plays in the global gold market. In China’s eyes, gold is its No. 1 import from Canada by value, rather than the canola and coal shipments Canada records as its top exports.

The difference is not a result of an accounting lapse on either country’s part. Instead, it arises from a difference in perspective. Canada is unable to track where its exports end up if they change hands multiple times on their way to their ultimate buyer. But China Customs can and does require importers to track where their products originate.

This means that when Canada sells gold to bullion markets in London and New York, those exports are counted here as sales to Britain and the United States. But when China buys that same Canadian gold from those same markets, it considers the imports to be from Canada.

As a result, Statistics Canada says direct exports of unwrought gold – such as bars or bullion – to China and Hong Kong in 2024 amounted to $1.9-billion.
But the figures from China Customs say that China imported dramatically more from Canada: $25-billion in that same category of goods.

Although the Chinese figures are public, they are not routinely scrutinized in Canada. The Royal Canadian Mint and the Mining Association of Canada were both unable to offer insight into China’s gold import statistics.

Unlike canola or petroleum or coal, gold isn’t generally consumed or destroyed. Aside from some industrial applications, the world’s mined gold supply simply increases over time. According to the World Gold Council, a global industry association, the “above-ground” stock of gold was 216,265 tonnes at the end of 2024.
China, however, has started amassing significant gold holdings, and gold investors appear to be unloading their supplies of Canadian bullion in response. The country’s central bank holdings of gold hit 2,292 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, up substantially from 1,800 tonnes in the same period in 2016.

The soaring price of gold, up more than 25 per cent in 2025 alone, is boosting the share prices of Canadian gold mining companies and, by extension, the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada, which has increased more than 11 per cent this year, even as tariffs and trade uncertainty have weighed on the country’s economy.

Philippe Rheault, director of the University of Alberta’s China Institute, said China has been buying the precious metal as a hedge against both rising global uncertainty and its overreliance on the U.S. dollar.

“They’ve got just a voracious appetite for gold,” said Mr. Rheault, who recently retired from Canada’s foreign service after two decades in China.
Figures from China Customs show that gold, in fact, has topped the import list as the top commodity from Canada not only in 2024 but also in 2022, 2019, 2018 and 2015.
Mr. Rheault, who most recently served as Canada‘s consul general for South China until 2023, said he wouldn’t be surprised if China was understating the import data for gold originating in Canada.

He said as far as he can tell, Canadian gold is mostly going to China via Hong Kong, but also via Switzerland, Britain and the United States.

Joseph Cavatoni, a senior strategist at the World Gold Council, said a piece of Canadian bullion might pass through the hands of four or five people between the time it started at the Royal Canadian Mint and made its way into the hands of the People’s Bank of China.

“China has been at the top of the list in terms of central banks buying gold over the last 15 years in terms of the trend that we’ve seen,” Mr. Cavatoni said.
He said China‘s central bank has been removing U.S. dollars or assets based on the U.S. dollar or euro from its holdings and substituting these with commodities such as gold.

“There are homegrown concerns around inflation, the property market hasn’t done very well, the economic situation around corporate growth has been bleak,” Mr. Cavatoni said of China. Equities have been up and down. Bond markets are challenged, and their renminbi is under pressure, so they’re diversifying their reserves.”

Pierre Gratton, president and chief executive of the Mining Association of Canada, wasn’t able to comment on the Chinese trade figures. But he said Canada should consider taking a page from China.

“Given the incredible rise in gold’s value, China once again appears to be outmaneuvering the West, much as it has with other mineral commodities. It’s ironic and unfortunate that Canada, as a major gold producer, isn’t itself increasing its gold holdings in these turbulent times.”

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

NOTE: THIS GLOBE & MAIL ARTICLE WAS EDITED USING SOFTWARE GRAMMARLY BY Bruce Warren Margolese.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

President, Hussman Investment Trust

August 2025

I can show precisely that there are two warranted prices for a share. The one I prefer is based on such fundamentals as earnings and growth rates, but the bubble is rational in a certain sense. The expectation of growth produces the growth, which confirms the expectation; people will buy it because it went up. But once you are convinced that it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out, and it collapses, beyond the fundamentals.”
Franco Modigliani, Nobel Laureate, March 30, 2000, New York Times

Across more than four decades of navigating market cycles, sharing weekly or monthly market commentaries the entire time, I’ve had multiple opportunities to write about speculative bubbles and their subsequent collapse, in real time.

Neither the market collapse that followed the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, nor the crisis that followed the mortgage bubble in 2007, was particularly unusual in terms of the losses that followed those extremes. The notable thing, from the standpoint of our investment discipline, is that both were obedient. History has rarely afforded bubbles a life span of more than a decade, and neither the tech bubble nor the mortgage bubble that followed it was an exception. People who dismiss everything I say with “permabear” don’t seem to realize that the reputation earned by navigating decades of full cycles well, before the current bubble, is the reason investors know my name in the first place.

In that context, it’s nice that despite maintaining a negative market outlook here, we’re looking more like our former selves. We’ve done just fine relative to the S&P 500 since adopting our September 2024 hedging implementation, which allows us to vary the intensity of our investment stance even amid the most extreme market conditions, leaving us much less reliant on market direction. For more on that hedging implementation, see Asking a Better Question, Subsets and Sensibility, and the section titled “The Martian” in The Turtle and the Pendulum.

We do prefer a certain amount of market fluctuation to a diagonal advance in a hypervalued bubble, as we’ve seen in recent months. Yet even as I discuss what I view as the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history – beyond both 1929 and 2000 – it’s important to recognize that nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, a reversion to historically normal valuations, an erosion of profit margins, a narrowing of fiscal deficits, an end to reckless Fed interventions, or even any particular forecast or scenario. I expect this bubble to end in tears. But if it doesn’t: We. Don’t. Care. Because nothing in our discipline forces us to care.

A bubble is a mathematical object

The defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behaviour and expected returns based on valuations. If investors pay $150 today for a security that will deliver a single $100 payment a decade from now, but they also fully understand that they’ll lose 4% annually on the deal, without extrapolating past gains into the future, then we might say the security is overvalued, and we might question why investors would accept that trade, but we can’t call it a bubble.

But if investors pay $150 today for that security, because they look back in the rear-view mirror, decide that it ‘always goes up’ over time, and convince themselves that expected future returns are always positive, then you’ve got a bubble. Discounting the future $100 cash flow of the security using any positive expected return would produce a price less than $100. So the positive returns expected by investors are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows. The size of the bubble is the fraction of the market price that represents expectational ‘hot air.’
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., How to Spot a Bubble, March 15, 2021

The word “bubble” gets tossed around quite a bit. Usually, it comes in the form of verbal arguments about whether prices have advanced to a point that’s “too high” in some sense.

We can do much better than that. A bubble is a mathematical object.

As I’ve observed before, bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting their expectations for future returns lower. That is, investors extrapolate past returns based on price behaviour, even though the resulting expectations about future returns are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows.

Suppose you buy a stock and hold it for one year, expecting to earn some return, call it k%. Over the year, you also receive a “cash flow” – in this case, a dividend, or buyout proceeds, or whatever the security throws off, and the price is, of course, reduced by that amount on the date the stock goes ex-dividend.
In your head, you expect the price to obey an equation that looks something like:
Price = (1+k) x Last Price – Cash Flow

But here’s the thing. Mathy people may recognize that the solution to an equation like this has two pieces. One is called a “particular solution,” and in this case, we can write it as a “fundamental value”:
F = All future cash flows, discounted to present value at the expected long-term return k

The other part is what’s called a “homogeneous solution,” and we can write it as a “bubble term” that looks something like:
B = (1+k) Last B

So what we get is:
Price = Fundamental Value + Bubble Term

That’s what Modigliani meant when he wrote, “I can show, really precisely, that there are two warranted prices for a share.”
Now, economists typically assume that investors are wise enough to rule out infinite bubbles (technically, called a “transversality condition”). When investors fail to do that, bad things happen. At the March 2000 peak, Modigliani’s mathy discussion beautifully foreshadowed what was about to happen in the real world: “once you are convinced that it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out, and it collapses, beyond the fundamentals.” That, in a nutshell, is how the Nasdaq 100 could go on to lose 83% of its value by October 2002.

See, the problem is this. Unless the Bubble Term is able to become exponentially larger forever, it shows up as a growing gap between the long-term return that investors expect in their heads and the long-term return that investors can actually expect based on the future cash flows that will ultimately be delivered into their hands.

In my April 2000 discussion of this problem, I wrote, “The only question is how long it takes for the gap between price and fundamentals to become intolerably wide. As we’ve seen, it can take a long time. But once the bubble psychology breaks, that gap can close with sickening speed. As we noted last month, the plunge in the Nasdaq may be muted from 83% to just 65% or so, given several years for revenues to catch up.”

As it turned out, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 went on to lose an implausibly precise 83% by October 2002.

On Wall Street, urgent stupidity has one terminal symptom, and it is the belief that money is free. Investors have turned the market into a carnival, where everybody ‘knows’ that the new rides are the good rides, and the old rides just don’t work. Where the carnival barkers seem to hand out free money just for showing up.

Unfortunately, this business is not that kind – it has always been true that in every pyramid, in every easy-money sure-thing, the first ones to get out are the only ones to get out. We’ve seen two-tiered markets before: most prominently in 1929, 1968-69, and 1972. Even at those pre-crash extremes, the S&P never sold above
20 times record earnings. The market faces problems at a multiple of 32. Technology stocks will ultimately fare worse. Over time, price/revenue ratios come back in line. Currently, that would require an 83% plunge in tech stocks (recall the 1969-70 tech massacre). If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Hussman Investment Research & Insight, March 7, 2000

Gauging the Bubble Term
The chart below shows our most reliable gauge of market valuations in data since 1928: the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross value-added (MarketCap/GVA). Gross value-added is the sum of corporate revenues generated incrementally at each stage of production, so MarketCap/GVA might be reasonably be viewed as an economy-wide, apples-to-apples price/revenue multiple for U.S. nonfinancial corporations.

The current level of valuations is the highest in U.S. history, easily exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. While the S&P 500 has advanced just over 5% since February, when the previous record was set, we’ve done just fine. Again, we prefer market fluctuation to a diagonal, hypervalued advance, but nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814a.png

Now, one might argue that profit margins are at record highs, and that we’re now in a “new era” economy where these elevated profit margins will be permanent. In the next section, I’ll discuss why that argument may not be wise, but for true believers, it’s enough to note that even if we assume that current record profit margins are permanent, valuations still rival the most extreme levels in history.

You can see this in the chart below. The red line shows the ratio of the S&P 500 to analyst estimates of year-ahead “forward operating earnings.” This “forward P/E” is often preferred by Wall Street because it ignores bad stuff like “nonrecurring” losses and isn’t even defined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and because it only came into use in the 1980s, there’s no history for forward operating earnings before that time.

Fortunately, it turns out that we can easily proxy the S&P 500 forward P/E with the Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE). The relationship isn’t one-to-one, since the forward multiple is generally far lower than the CAPE, which is based on trailing 10-year earnings. But the current level of the CAPE does capture the elevated profit margins of the past decade. So if you believe that profit margins will remain at record levels forever, this is the valuation measure that you may want to use. That’s fine. We don’t rely on this choice either.

As for GAAP earnings, the S&P 500 currently trades at 29 times record trailing earnings. At the 2000 peak, the multiple reached 32. So again, extreme valuations aren’t an artifact of using any single measure. Some are more reliable than others, because their denominators tend to be more representative of subsequent cash flows (which is why we prefer MarketCap/GVA), but even if one assumes that current extreme profit margins will be permanent, the current situation rivals the most hypervalued extremes in history.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814b.png

A reliable valuation gauge is nothing but shorthand for a proper discounted cash flow analysis. As I’ve detailed across decades of market commentaries, the valuation gauges we use are faithful to that requirement. So, valuations offer beautiful intuition about the growing gap between the future returns in investors' heads, and the future returns that one would project based on discounted cash flows.

What returns do investors have in their heads here? Based on the 2025 Natixis Survey of investors with more than $100,000 in assets, investors expect “returns of 10.7% above inflation over the long term.” Equally scary is that while financial advisers suggest that investors should temper those expectations about after-inflation returns, those advisers “suggest that a more attainable target would be around 8.3%.”

Now recall how a speculative bubble works:
Bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for future returns lower. In other words, the defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behaviour and expected returns based on valuations. The “Bubble Term” measures the gap between the two.

Unless the Bubble Term can become exponentially larger forever, it shows up as a growing gap between the long-term return that investors expect in their heads and the long-term return that investors can expect based on the future cash flows that will ultimately be delivered into their hands.

The chart below shows precisely what this looks like in real-world data. The blue line chart below shows the estimated 12-year S&P 500 total return that we project based on our most reliable valuation gauge – MarketCap/GVA. We get somewhat less extreme loss projections from less reliable measures, but the overall profile is much the same. The red line shows actual subsequent 12-year S&P 500 average annual nominal returns across a century of market cycles.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814c.png

Notice, as usual, that anytime the end of the 12-year horizon ends at bubble valuations (as the 1998-2000 horizon did, and recent 12-year horizons have), actual returns over those periods will be substantially above the returns that one would have estimated at the beginning of those horizons.
That’s just arithmetic. The actual total return of the S&P 500 for any given holding period has three pieces: the annual growth in fundamentals F, the annualized change in valuations (Price/F) during the holding period, and the average dividend yield during that period.

Over the past 10, 20 and 30 years, nominal GDP, S&P 500 revenues, and corporate gross value added have grown by only about 4.5% annually. Suppose that growth continues. The current S&P 500 dividend yield is only about 1.2%. So if valuations can remain at current extremes forever, the expected return arithmetic says 4.5% + 1.2% = 5.7% nominal.

If valuations decline to some lower level, the effect is to reduce expected returns by (future V / current V)^(1/T)-1, where T is the number of years. For example, a decline in MarketCap/GVA from the current extreme of 3.7 to a level no lower than the 2000 peak of 2.5 would lower 10-year total returns by (2.5/3.7)^(1/10)-1 = -3.8%. The resulting 10-year nominal total return estimate then becomes 5.7%-3.8% = 1.9% annually, and even less if inflation is positive. That’s not a theory, it’s just arithmetic. The only issue is whether investors assume the bubble will be permanent.

What’s taken so long?
Two factors have conspired to extend this bubble even beyond those that ended in 1929 and 2000. They’ve gone hand in hand, to some extent have been self-reinforcing.

First, years of zero-interest policy from the Federal Reserve fueled psychology among investors that “there is no alternative” (TINA) but to speculate. As the Fed took interest-bearing Treasury securities out of the market and onto its balance sheet, it replaced those securities with zero-interest Fed liabilities (currency, bank reserves, and funds on reverse repo) that someone had to hold at every moment in time. Since 1950, the amount of Fed liabilities has never exceeded 10% of GDP. From 2008 to 2022, the Fed took that percentage from just under 6% of GDP to a wild-eyed, deranged 32% of GDP by early 2022. The Fed has gradually tapered that back to about 22% today.

Someone in the economy is holding those Fed liabilities (mainly banks and money market funds), though at the moment the Fed is paying 4.4% on them rather than zero. This is the stuff that talking heads on TV call “cash on the sidelines,” imagining that at any moment, some buyer will somehow put it “into” the stock market without a seller taking it right back “out.” They believe this because nobody has explained to them how equilibrium works. That “cash” will, and must, continue to be held by someone, as cash, until and unless the Fed retires it by shrinking its balance sheet, at which time investors, in aggregate, will hold Treasury securities instead.

So one of the factors that extended this particular bubble was a zero-interest policy. It did two things. First, it encouraged investors to drive stock prices higher (implicitly driving future long-term stock market returns lower, to levels better aligned with the near-zero returns on bonds). But given that the total debt of U.S. nonfinancial corporations is nearly the size of their annual revenues (we prefer gross-value added), every 1% drop in corporate interest rates reduced debt servicing costs and propped up profit margins by that same 1%. Moreover, corporations were able to refinance that debt at the interest rate lows of 2020 and 2021, which is only now just beginning to be refinanced at higher rates.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814d.png

So zero-interest rate policies boosted both corporate profits and the multiples that investors were willing to pay for those profits.
Now look at fiscal policy. As I’ve noted before – equilibrium again – anytime one sector runs a deficit (consumption and net investment over-and-above income), some other sector must run a surplus (income over-and-above consumption and net investment). That’s not a theory. It’s just an accounting identity. That accounting identity has played out in real time in ways that investors don’t seem to fully recognize.

Specifically, as government deficits exploded in recent years – particularly resulting from a combination of tax cuts and pandemic spending – corporate free cash flows also exploded. They had to. This wasn’t because of some new-era productivity boom. It was because of the equilibrium. It’s just an accounting identity. But it creates a situation where perpetually extreme corporate earnings now rely on perpetually extreme government deficits. They are mirror images of each other.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814e.png

Put simply, investors now rely on an ever-expanding Bubble Term that was driven by “free money” monetary and fiscal policies that will not only have to persist, but will have to expand without limit to keep up with that Bubble Term.

It’s important to constantly emphasize that nothing in our discipline requires a market collapse, mean-reversion in valuations, a retreat in profit margins, or an end to deranged monetary interventions or fiscal free-for-alls. Our discipline is to align our investment stance in response to measurable, observable market conditions – primarily valuations and market internals – as they change over time. Our September 2024 hedging implementation added a fresh degree of freedom, allowing us to vary our investment stance even amid the most extreme market conditions. We do benefit from market fluctuation, but in my view, little beyond that is necessary. No forecasts or scenarios are required.

Still, from the standpoint of valuations, a century of market history, the economics of equilibrium, and just plain arithmetic, my take is simple: I expect this bubble to end in tears.

By submitting this form, you consent to receive news and commentary, at no cost, from Hussman Strategic Advisors, News & Commentary, Cincinnati, OH, 45246. https://www.hussmanfunds.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact.

The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse.

Prospectuses for the Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund, the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, and the Hussman Strategic Allocation Fund, as well as Fund reports and other information, are available by clicking Prospectus & Reports under “The Funds” menu button on any page of this website.

The S&P 500 Index is a commonly recognized, capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely-held equity securities, designed to measure broad U.S. equity performance. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is made up of the Bloomberg U.S. Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Backed Securities Index, including securities that are of investment grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, and have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million. The Bloomberg US EQ: FI 60:40 Index is designed to measure cross-asset market performance in the U.S. The index rebalances monthly to 60% equities and 40% fixed income. The equity and fixed income allocation is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Large Cap Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Estimates of prospective return and risk for equities, bonds, and other financial markets are forward-looking statements based on the analysis and reasonable beliefs of Hussman Strategic Advisors. They are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of the prospective returns of any of the Hussman Funds. Actual returns may differ substantially from the estimates provided. Estimates of prospective long-term returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability over the economic cycle. Further details relating to MarketCap/GVA (the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross-value added, including estimated foreign revenues) and our Margin-Adjusted P/E (MAPE) can be found in the Market Comment Archive under the Knowledge Center tab of this website. MarketCap/GVA: Hussman 05/18/15. MAPE: Hussman 05/05/14, Hussman 09/04/17.

 

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Tariffs & Gold Revaluation Won’t Stop a Systemic Reckoning (Part 1/2)
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VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, joins Michelle Makori of The Real Story in part one of a thorough, two-part assessment of the key macro themes impacting global currency, debt and precious metals markets – from tariff dynamics and stablecoin legislation to potential gold revaluation signposts out of DC.

For Piepenburg, the 50,000-foot macro assessment boils soberly down to this: The math and facts behind current headline policy-boldness smacks more of desperation than salvation.

US debt levels, for which both left and right administrations are historically culpable, have crossed the Rubicon of any easy, near-term solutions. He warns that hard facts are far more essential today than partisan bias, hope or critique. Mathematically, the home of the World Reserve Currency has created a debt-backdrop/trap for which no single policy or leader can magically resolve without interim pain in currency, debt and risk asset markets, all of which share objectively high and unprecedented risk profiles.

Makori begins with the potential and real-time revenues from positive trade deals emerging from Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Does the numerical upside of such revenues suggest that these measures could postpone or prevent a systemic reckoning? Piepenburg recognizes the historical lessons, current justifications, and even revenue gains behind policies laudably intended to reshore American manufacturing. Unfortunately, however, current deficit spending far surpasses even the most optimistic tariff revenues. More importantly, and objectively, Piepenburg reminds us that current debt/GDP ratios make economic growth mathematically impossible, regardless of which party or leader sits in the Oval Office. Until and unless debt/GDP levels fall well below the 100% level, no miracle solution exists. Given that the real spending cuts need to come from politically critical military and entitlement expenses, such cuts are unlikely, and thus so are such miracle solutions.

In this backdrop of a debt-trap, there is growing talk of bringing US debt/GDP levels within a workable growth model (i.e., well below 100%) by simply re-valuing US gold reserves to entirely new (i.e., higher than current spot-price) levels, thereby putting a sizable dent in US debt by effectively “doing QE with gold rather than a Fed-money-mouse-clicker.” Piepenburg cautiously recognizes that such an OVER-NIGHT revaluation (and “instant US piggy-bank filler”) is entirely plausible, which would create a massive and new price floor for gold (and boon for gold owners).

But then what? As Kissinger warned decades ago, such a measure would dramatically create an OVER-NIGHT global POWER-SHIFT if other nations like China and Russia, in fact, own more gold than the US. Here, Piepenburg believes China owns far more gold than reported, and would hence become the global winner in a setting wherein “he owns the most gold wins.”

Piepenburg closes Part-1 by further reminding that the very fact that the US is considering such a gold revaluation (and even a possible gold-backed UST) is a constructive admission that gold has more trust, merit, confidence and strength than a debased USD and unloved UST.


Part 2/2 premieres on 22 August 2025.
Make sure you’re subscribed to our mailing list below to receive a notification when the video goes live.

About Matthew Piepenburg
Matt began his finance career as a transactional attorney before launching his first hedge fund during the NASDAQ bubble of 1999-2001. Thereafter, he began investing his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. Matthew worked closely as well with Morgan Stanley’s... More...
Matthew Piepenburg
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Phone: +41 44 213 62 45
VON GREYERZ AG global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.
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Now, for those who want to make money trading Forex, I will start to tie the FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION to how you can make money trading Forex, which is what my trading course is all about and what is stated in the title of my thread.

http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-pric...-prices-crash/

Snippet:
2007 All Over Again, Part 6: Stock Valuations Enter Crash Territory
December 11, 2016

The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signalled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following:

Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
(CNBC) While the S&P 500 is reaching all-time highs on optimism over Donald Trump's economic agenda, some Wall Street strategists are increasingly worried about a widely followed valuation measure that's reached levels that preceded most of the major market crashes of the last 100 years.

The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller, now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble, Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
Newman said even if the market's earnings increase by 10 percent under Trump's policies, we're still dealing with the same picture, overvaluation on a very grand scale.
http://i2.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...c-16.jpg?w=550


The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is calculated using the price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller's research found that future 10-year stock market returns were negatively correlated to high CAPE ratio readings on a relative basis. He won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013 for his work on stock market inefficiency and valuations.

Other academics agreed that the current extreme CAPE ratio of 27.7 is a worrying sign for future returns versus bonds.

Only when CAPE is very high, say, CAPE is in the upper half of the tenth decile (CAPE higher than 27.6), future 10-year stock returns, on average, are lower than those on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, Valentin Dimitrov and Prem C. Jain wrote in a paper titled Shiller's CAPE: Market Timing and Risk on Nov. 17.
Even based on the more common price-earnings ratio, the market looks rich. The S&P 500's P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months is 18.9, the highest in more than 12 years, according to FactSet.

U.S. valuations start off as being high both on a historical basis and on a peer group basis. Certainly, based on the Shiller PE, the equity market seems expensive, Jefferies chief global equity strategist Sean Darby wrote on Nov. 29.

The above chart requires a bit of interpretation, mainly because of that spike in 1999, which seems to imply a much higher ceiling for stock valuations. It probably doesn't, because of the uniquely delusional nature of the tech stock bubble. That market was driven by newly minted dot-coms and related companies that, in many cases, had minimal or no earnings, so prices weren't related to profits. In other words, you can't calculate a price/earnings ratio if there are no earnings.
Eyeballs, that is, the number of people visiting a dot-com's website, had temporarily replaced traditional valuation measures in the hearts of speculators. With disastrous results.

Today's market, in contrast, is made up of companies with actual earnings, so it might be safe to discount 1999 and use the rest of the chart for comparison. In which case, current equity prices look extremely dangerous.

Comments from Benjaminis: Now that it is clearer where I am heading with my fundamental knowledge, which I obtain through hours and hours each day of reading, I can start to apply it to a Trade Plan.

Right now, I have 2 almost certain WIN guaranteed Trade Plans.

My first one is to short USD/JPY from where it is today until it reaches 105.00, then I will review my options. The second one is to go long Gold and Silver until Gold reaches $1325 US and Silver reaches $18 US.

Now it will be easier to explain my Money Flow Method. I know from my 10-year career in trading currencies that as the value of one Asset Class changes, it affects another. For example, we now have Risk Off because of the Trump Factor, which has been in place since November 9, 2016. On Wednesday, December 14, 2016, that Factor may change. That is when Janet Yellen announces the FED rate decision at 2:00 PM. Will we have buy the rumour and sell the news? Regardless of the decision, I will be ready to FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW using proper Risk Management. While technical indicators are very important and part of my strategy when PERCEPTION turns to REALITY, you can ignore Support and Resistance short-term until new Support and Resistance is set. Two recent examples are the British Pound and the Euro. We, of course, can add USD/JPY because it is a haven currency, and money ALWAYS flows there on Risk Off, as it also flows short term to the US

Bonds, whether they are the 2 Year or the 5 Year or the 10 Year or the 30 Year US Bonds.

Since the November 8 elections, the Fixed Income or BOND MARKETS of the world have suffered real losses of OVER TWO TRILLION Dollars and the funds, not all of course, have flowed into the equity markets of the world. When the EQUITY markets revert to more realistic levels, then we will see a REVERSAL.
Knowing this, I have a 100% guarantee of which Asset Classes to buy or sell. THAT IS MY EDGE !!!

It is common knowledge that 95% of all currency traders, specifically the retail traders, lose their money. There is a reason, of course. It took me over 3 years to learn my trade, only Demo Trading, and that was a great learning experience for me since FEAR was eliminated, and Greed was not much of an issue since I could not spend my demo dollars on the nice things in life. :-)

The EGO in my case was built up since over 75% of all my forex trades were winning ones, and I averaged a ROI or return on demo investment of $50,000 US dollars of a minimum of 5% each and every month during the last year during 2005, of my demo trading. I would NEVER trade real funds unless my starting capital was $25,000 US, and there is a reason behind that.

Risk Management is the MOST IMPORTANT part of my teaching. I am still looking for a maximum of 6 forex traders that would take 30 days to learn free of charge my Money Flow Method free of charge with proper Risk Management.

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or an ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your username and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge, and at the end of the 30 days, I will give you a grade out of 100. However, your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons who sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD to HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank you and have a Great Trading Day !!!

Contact Benjamin at [email protected] or call me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you, and I look forward to hearing from you.

NOTE: After the first six subscribers take advantage of my offer, the cost is 100.00 Canadian dollars via an E Transfer to [email protected]


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In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

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News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to [email protected]

"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to [email protected]

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to [email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

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CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...ge-fraud-probe

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Trump Demands Fed Governor "Must Resign Now" Over Mortgage Fraud Probe
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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, August 20, 2025 - 08:45 AM


The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency is urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over a pair of mortgages, the latest in a series of moves by the Trump administration to increase legal scrutiny of Democratic figures and appointees.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte wrote a letter to Bondi and DOJ official Ed Martin on Aug. 15 suggesting that Cook may have committed a criminal offence. The letter alleges that Cook “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favourable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”

Bloomberg reports that Pulte said Cook took a mortgage on a property in Ann Arbor, Michigan, signing a mortgage agreement that stipulated she would use the property as her primary residence for at least a year.

Two weeks later, according to the letter, she took another mortgage on a Georgia property and also declared it would be her primary residence.
Pulte also called on Bondi to look into whether Cook misrepresented her circumstances by later listing the Georgia property for rental.

The letter includes copies of mortgage documents in Cook’s name, as well as an apparent rental listing from 2022, a little over a year after she bought the Georgia property.

Here is the Criminal Referral Letter on Lisa Cook, the current Fed Governor. pic.twitter.com/aG0LGnokei
— Pulte (@pulte) August 20, 2025

And President Trump was swift to respond... demanding that "Cook must resign, now!!!"
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=j_-bouVx
...as the full court press to pack The Fed continues.

Cook was nominated to the Fed by President Joe Biden and took office in 2022, becoming the first Black woman to serve on the Fed’s board of governors.

She was later nominated by Biden for a full term, which expires in 2038.

Bloomberg reports that no charges have been filed and it’s not clear whether Bondi will investigate. The Justice Department declined comment. The Federal Reserve declined comment. Cook did not respond to requests for comment late Tuesday.

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NOTE FROM BRUCE WARREN MARGOLESE

THIS INFORMATION IS VERY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF SINCE THE CHAIR OF THE FED CREATED IN DECEMBER 1913 IS UNDER GREAT DESERVED POLITICAL ATTACK. CHAIRMAN JAY POWELL SPEAKS ON FRIDAY AND THE WORLD WIL BE WATCHING. MARKETS MUST BE AFFECTED BY THESE EVENTS.