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  • #1,601
  • Aug 18, 2025 10:14am Aug 18, 2025 10:14am
Two losses today on S&P.

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  • #1,602
  • Aug 18, 2025 5:29pm Aug 18, 2025 5:29pm
I have been racking my brain on risk to reward for most of the day because I’m starting my 20 day challenge with my SL at 0.318 of my fixed trading bar and my TP at 1.62 which is about a 0.91rr. However if I moved my SL to 0.5 of the range and kept the same TP, that increases it to roughly 1:3r-1.5r depending on how big the fixed bar range is.
I won’t be changing anything until the 20th trade results then depending on the data changing one variable being the stop loss placement if need be. This is definitely in line with the roulette example of having an edge that has long term rewards.
With a 60% win rate, a 1:1.5r aaannnddd happened to have a 50k personal cash account (which Vidvad is working to hit a million dollars) while risking 2% you can see how it adds up. This is the type of thinking this thread about. You find an edge then use that to be on the slow path to riches.
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The only thing better than a crawfish dinner...is 2 crawfish dinners
  • #1,603
  • Edited 7:44pm Aug 18, 2025 7:18pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting The.Bandit
I have been racking my brain on risk to reward for most of the day because I’m starting my 20 day challenge with my SL at 0.318 of my fixed trading bar and my TP at 1.62 which is about a 0.91rr. However if I moved my SL to 0.5 of the range and kept the same TP, that increases it to roughly 1:3r-1.5r depending on how big the fixed bar range is. I won’t be changing anything until the 20th trade results then depending on the data changing one variable being the stop loss placement if need be. This is definitely in line with the roulette example of...

I like this response by Victoria C in another thread about this topic:

Quoting Victoria.C
{quote} My "input" (such as it is) relates only to the general principle, not to this specific thread or system. I've never seen or heard of any retail/independent trader making steady profits with an R anywhere near 3.0. All the "profitability claims" of even 2.0+ I've ever seen have been in beginners' forums, on Youtube, on sales pages, in marketing emails and on vendors' websites, and all unevidenced. I believe that in institutional and professional trading worlds, an R of around 1.0 or even slightly less is very common. Someone I know who used...
Bandit, you're here, so you are in the right place. However, it would seem as though you are trying to bring in some baggage you picked up elsewhere that is really not helpful, and in fact is, imo, quite harmful.

Yesterday, in the second sports betting documentary I posted, one of the pro gramblers noted that in sports betting, you can get rich with just a 54-55% win rate, and only the best of the best of sports bettors (who are, in fact, traders) can hit 60% wins, and even then they do so for short bursts of times (lucky streaks).

A someone who trades the sports betting market has a reward to risk of .90 ( you need to bet $110 to win $100, and every loss is a loss of $110, every win is a win of $100).

Let's do the math: 10 bets, with a 55% win rate = 5.5 wins * 100 = $550 profit; 4.5 losses *110 = $495 lost, so every 10 bets = $55 profit per unit. And yet the pros say you can get rich with that win rate and the R:R! How so?

Because just like a futures trader who can add contracts as his account grows, so too can a sports bettor add betting units as his or her bankroll grows.

So, what am I getting at? You are still under the influence of the myth of the reward must be greater than the risk.

My best results have been with a .618 reward to risk (bet $1 to win 62 cents essentially).

Look, do the exercise. The purpose of your money management rules at this point are to remove all discretion from your trading plan. You are still focused on the BS that 99% or FF traders are focused on, and so you're risking getting the same (failing) results of the 99%.

Break free of the BS, my friend. Focus on rules and execution. If you're worried about the money then sim trade. But treat the trading as the serious exercise that it is meant to be.

As I was typing this I took a gold trade that had a .29 reward to risk. It is 100% mechanical and sets up during the first 2 to 3 hours of the Asian session, night after night. It wins 85% of the time. Do the math. Seriously ... do the math.

Now, consider this: The same set up using a 1:1 reward to risk wins less than 25% of the time. Now do that math.

The math in question is what Al Brooks calls "The Trader's Equation": (Probability of Profit * Average Profit) - (Probability of loss * Average Loss)

Looking for 1.5 to 1, 2 to 1, the laughable 3:1 and the absolutely hysterical 8:1 are what keep poor broke retail traders poor and broke.

The trading industrial complex doesn't want you to accept the truth that day trading is gambling, and pro gamblers get rich by trading ona a very slight edge, whether sports, blackjack, poker, horses, roulette, or whatever their game of choice.

Our game of choice is the futures markets. We can get rich trading on the small edges offered, or die broke and poor chasing the non-existent multi-bag method.

Just chill, define your rules, keeping your reward to risk to a MAX of 1:1, no more. Just do the exercise, keep it 100% rule based, and focus on execution and the emotions you feel when the market is ticking against you and when the market is sweeping your money into its pockets from yours.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,604
  • Aug 18, 2025 7:27pm Aug 18, 2025 7:27pm
I get a lot of people asking me questions via private message and I would really rather have all questions asked here in the thread and I'll answer them here in the thread.

One recent PM reads as follows: "I went back to the trading option I started trading with here on forexfactory. And I added the breakeven. This
allows me to reduce the number of losses, and the system looks very stable. What do you think about closing part of the position, for example, 1:1, and applying trailing to the other part? Do you use this approach? It's just that you usually use fixed takes, judging by your videos. I thought that I could test different types of trailing on FxReplay. I also want to collect statistics and determine on which days of the week there is a trend on the [instrument doesn't matter]"

So, first of all, moving your stop to breakeven is a legitimate risk management tactic so long as it is based on a rule and not whim or nerves. For example, on the M5 NQ reversal bar method I trade, I move the stop to breakeven once it moves a particular multiple of the current M5 ATR in profit. I do not have such a rule for the NQ M15 or M30 fixed bar set ups. Collect your data and then make a judgement based upon the mathematics of your method as to whether a BE stop rule will increase profitability. The goal should not be simply to reduce the number of losses, as doing so might also decrease the number of wins by an even greater number.

Second, I am trying hard to keep my trading to an "all in/all out" approach. That is, I exit the whole position at a predefined take profit level. You can do whatever you like. But do so with the math. Too many people are following along with us here but still carrying the weight of myths and misconceptions about risk/reward or their shoulders.

It all comes down to math: collect your data, build your spreadsheets. There is no other way.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,605
  • Aug 18, 2025 7:39pm Aug 18, 2025 7:39pm
For the 20 trade challenge my TP and SL will remain the same. I was just thinking in terms of statics if there’s any advantage to having the 1:1.5 but like I said it was just on my mind. Using the calculator to see just what that kind of RR returns is amazing to see.
Thanks for your input. People have been bombarded with this fantasy of trading due to social media. People post these huge trades, then their cars, stacks of hundreds, cases of expensive watches, then ask for $3.5k for mentoring, wild world we live in.
happy trading everyone.
The only thing better than a crawfish dinner...is 2 crawfish dinners
  • #1,606
  • Aug 18, 2025 7:54pm Aug 18, 2025 7:54pm
Quoting The.Bandit
People post these huge trades, then their cars, stacks of hundreds, cases of expensive watches, then ask for $3.5k for mentoring, wild world we live in. happy trading everyone.
It's all fake. You know that, right? All of it ... fake. Where do you see these things?

Quoting Victoria.C
{quote} All the "profitability claims" of even 2.0+ I've ever seen have been in beginners' forums, on Youtube, on sales pages, in marketing emails and on vendors' websites, and all unevidenced.
Bandit, stay away from all trading social media other than this thread, and make this about YOU.

Look at this chart:
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Using Excel, that is the potential equity growth starting with $2000, averging a net profit of 3 ES points per day over about 284 trading days with a .6 to 1 reward to risk, scaling up from 1 contract per trade up to 25 contracts (the max allowed without firm intervention with Tradeday. Nothing wild, no need for complex partial profits taking schemes and hoping for an occasional multi-bagger. Just a steady, solid .6 to 1 Reward to Risk, day after day.

Why waste time seeking what doesn't exist, when all you have to do is master yourself and master the execution of your trading plan, and you can scale your profits as large as you'd like?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,607
  • Aug 18, 2025 8:37pm Aug 18, 2025 8:37pm
I got off social media a while ago, too much crap.
Everyone is trying to get you to sign up for their course or broker so they get a commission.
This is why I was drawn to this thread so much because it was about having an edge, using the probabilities in your favor and sticking to them.
Vidvad, I’ve watch the last 12 videos on your YT several times over because it really resonates with me.
After my gold challenge I’ll see if anything needs to be changed then make a similar spreadsheet, or ask ChatGPT since I’m not good with excel formula.
The only thing better than a crawfish dinner...is 2 crawfish dinners
  • #1,608
  • Aug 18, 2025 8:47pm Aug 18, 2025 8:47pm
Bandit, this it one of the toughest things you will ever have to do (at least for me it is). But I am sticking with it and every day that goes by is one day closer to my goal.
  • #1,609
  • Aug 19, 2025 2:30am Aug 19, 2025 2:30am
I fully agree with Vidvad - spreadsheets are absolutely essential, there’s no way around them.

Personally, I combine three months of backtesting with progressive forward testing using eight different fixed-bar methods. My Excel sheet continuously updates and highlights the most profitable SL and TP settings.

For every trade, I record the maximum drawdown (-0.5R or -1.0R) and the maximum profit (+0.618R, +1.0R, or +2.0R). Over time, these values are updated automatically and serve as inputs for my next trade. This way, I’m always trading with the most optimal SL and TP settings available, while at the same time the spreadsheet calculates the overall profit potential derived from these recorded SL and TP settings.
  • #1,610
  • Aug 19, 2025 3:14am Aug 19, 2025 3:14am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} It's all fake. You know that, right? All of it ... fake. Where do you see these things? {quote} Bandit, stay away from all trading social media other than this thread, and make this about YOU. Look at this chart:{image} Using Excel, that is the potential equity growth starting with $2000, averging a net profit of 3 ES points per day over about 284 trading days with a .6 to 1 reward to risk, scaling up from 1 contract per trade up to 25 contracts (the max allowed without firm intervention with Tradeday. Nothing wild, no need for complex partial...
I like the chart Vid, my question is:

Is it possible to net 3points per day most days?
As with a 1:1 or 0.6:1 RR and 60-70% win rate at 1 trade per day its more like 3days profit and 2 days loss for net +1 R per week.
Ie. (3days x 3 points) - (2days x -2points) = +9 - 4 = +5 points per week. Instead of (5days x 3points) = +15points per week.

Can scale that for sure but its nowhere near as much as consistent daily wins or daily compounding........


really curious to hear your answer
  • #1,611
  • Aug 19, 2025 3:22am Aug 19, 2025 3:22am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I like this response by Victoria C in another thread about this topic: {quote} Bandit, you're here, so you are in the right place. However, it would seem as though you are trying to bring in some baggage you picked up elsewhere that is really not helpful, and in fact is, imo, quite harmful. Yesterday, in the second sports betting documentary I posted, one of the pro gramblers noted that in sports betting, you can get rich with just a 54-55% win rate, and only the best of the best of sports bettors (who are, in fact, traders) can hit 60%...
Hi;
This spreadsheet is very simple, but it gives you an idea of how an account would behave with different ratios.
1 gain -1 loss. With PF 9, it generates a new random sequence.
Regards.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Random ratios.xlsx   49 KB | 124 downloads
  • #1,612
  • Aug 19, 2025 4:18am Aug 19, 2025 4:18am
Today trade
DAX M15 (sell): loser -1.62
Total: 3,86 %.
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  • #1,613
  • Edited 5:50am Aug 19, 2025 5:17am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} ....Look at this chart:{image} Using Excel, that is the potential equity growth starting with $2000, averging a net profit of 3 ES points per day over about 284 trading days with a .6 to 1 reward to risk, scaling up from 1 contract per trade up to 25 contracts (the max allowed without firm intervention with Tradeday. Nothing wild, no need for complex partial profits taking schemes and hoping for an occasional multi-bagger. Just a steady, solid .6 to 1 Reward to Risk, day after day. Why waste time seeking what doesn't exist, when all...
Hi Vidvad, I get what you say, and I do agree that sticking to this challenge can lead to building an account and ultimately a living, but it doesnt take a rocket scientist that the dates on this table are theoritical right. Nothing wild indeed, but also no room for losing trades.

BT
  • #1,614
  • Aug 19, 2025 7:14am Aug 19, 2025 7:14am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Hi Vidvad, I get what you say, and I do agree that sticking to this challenge can lead to building an account and ultimately a living, but it doesnt take a rocket scientist that the dates on this table are theoritical right. Nothing wild indeed, but also no room for losing trades. BT
Would the average guy trade, or want to trade 25 contracts? Better a table showing one or two contracts throughout the period, which is more realistic for many here?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,615
  • Aug 19, 2025 7:23am Aug 19, 2025 7:23am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Would the average guy trade, or want to trade 25 contracts? Better a table showing one or two contracts throughout the period, which is more realistic for many here?
The simulation is set up to trade one emini per $4000 equity. Current day trade margin is $500 per contract, so the simulation is much more conservative than "the average guy trading 1 or 2 contracts" most likely.

Here is the same simulation run for a max of 2 ES:

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,616
  • Aug 19, 2025 7:26am Aug 19, 2025 7:26am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Hi Vidvad, I get what you say, and I do agree that sticking to this challenge can lead to building an account and ultimately a living, but it doesnt take a rocket scientist that the dates on this table are theoritical right. Nothing wild indeed, but also no room for losing trades. BT
Average of 3 points per day, not per trade. The simulation does not assume no losing trades. It merely assumes an average net profit of 3 points per day, which given the current daily range of the ES should not be difficult. As with everything (and the central point of this thread) such consistency is itself very difficult because most of us cannot adhere to a simple set of rules and avoid FOMO, over trading, revenge trading, and over leveraging.

The math works. I don't mean to imply that any particular individual trader, including myself, can take full advantage of the math.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,617
  • Aug 19, 2025 7:27am Aug 19, 2025 7:27am
Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,618
  • Aug 19, 2025 8:00am Aug 19, 2025 8:00am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} The simulation is set up to trade one emini per $4000 equity. Current day trade margin is $500 per contract, so the simulation is much more conservative than "the average guy trading 1 or 2 contracts" most likely. Here is the same simulation run for a max of 2 ES: {image}
Now that I understand and it is still a very healthy return over 12 months.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,619
  • Aug 19, 2025 8:06am Aug 19, 2025 8:06am
[quote=vidvad;15356587]{quote} As with everything (and the central point of this thread) such consistency is itself very difficult because most of us cannot adhere to a simple set of rules and avoid FOMO, over trading, revenge trading, and over leveraging.

This is EXACTLY the reason 95% (or whatever the current % is) fail.
Tip, if you absolutely cannot contol the emotions....pick up a $50 throw away prop firm eval....when you are done with your main account(s) for the day, use the throw away account......
Best case, you pass and have additional funding
Worst case, you fail, but have not messed up your trading plan
  • #1,620
  • Aug 19, 2025 1:24pm Aug 19, 2025 1:24pm
One win and one loss today on S&P.

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